Jitendra mansata-accountant-nagpur

Saying NO isn’t always easy. Here are some professional ways to say no:

"Thanks for reaching out to me. Unfortunately, I am going to need to pass on this at this time."

"I don’t have the bandwidth at this moment. But here are some people I can refer you to in the meantime."

Let's stick a pin in this for now and revisit when there is more available time."

"I don't think I am the right fit for that, but thank you for bringing that to my attention."

"I am going to have to respectfully decline at this time."

ADVICE TO ALL EMPLOYEES :

1. Build a home earlier. Be it rural home or urban home. Building a house at 50 is not an achievement. Don't get used to government houses. This comfort is so dangerous. Let all your family have good time in your house.

2. Go home. Don't stick at work all the year. You are not the pillar of your department. If you drop dead today, you will be replaced immediately and operations will continue. Make your family a priority.

3. Don't chase promotions. Master your skills and be excellent at what you do. If they want to promote you, that's fine if they don't, stay positive to your personal.
development.

4. Avoid office or work gossip. Avoid things that tarnish your name or reputation. Don't join the bandwagon that backbites your bosses and colleagues. Stay away from negative gatherings that have only people as their agenda.

5. Don't ever compete with your bosses. You will burn your fingers. Don't compete with your colleagues, you will fry your brain.

6. Ensure you have a side business. Your salary will not sustain your needs in the long run.

7. Save some money. Let it be deducted automatically from your payslip.

8. Borrow a loan to invest in a business or to change a situation not to buy luxury. Buy luxury from your profit.

9. Keep your life,marriage and family private. Let them stay away from your work. This is very important.

10. Be loyal to yourself and believe in your work. Hanging around your boss will alienate you from your colleagues and your boss may finally dump you when he leaves.

11. Retire early. The best way to plan for your exit was when you received the employment letter. The other best time is today. By 40 to 50 be out.

12. Join work welfare and be an active member always. It will help you a lot when any eventuality occurs.

13.Take leave days utilize them by developing yr future home or projects..usually what you do during yr leave days is a reflection of how you'll live after retirement..If it means you spend it all holding a remote control watching series on Zee world, expect nothing different after retirement.

14. Start a project whilst still serving or working. Let your project run whilst at work and if it doesn't do well, start another one till it's running viably. When your project is viably running then retire to manage your business. Most people or pensioners fail in life because they retire to start a project instead of retiring to run a project.

15. Pension money is not for starting a project or buy a stand or build a house but it's money for your upkeep or to maintain yourself in good health. Pension money is not for paying school fees or marrying a young wife but to look after yourself.

16. Always remember, when you retire never be a case study for living a miserable life after retirement but be a role model for colleagues to think of retiring too.

17. Don't retire just because you are finished or you are now a burden to the company and just wait for your day to die. Retire young or whilst energetic to enjoy waking up for a cup of coffee, enjoy the sun, receive money from your business, visit nice place that you missed and spend good time with family. Those who retire late, spend about 95% of their time at work than with their family and that's why they see it difficult to spend time with their family when they retire but end looking for another job till they die. If they don't get another job, they die early.

18. Retire at your house than at government accommodation so that when you retire you can easily fit into the society that raised you. It's not easy to adjust to live in a location after spending more years at company house or at government house.

19. Never let your employment benefits make you forget about your retirement. Employment benefits are just meant to make you relax, get finished whilst time is moving. Remember when you retire no one will call you boss if you don't have a viable business.

20. Don't hate to retire because one day you will retire either voluntarily or involuntarily.

Hope this will help you look at life positively

Aaditya Joshi

अद्भूत 🙏🏻
गणित में कोई भी संख्या 1 से 10 तक के सभी अंकों से नहीं कट सकती, लेकिन इस विचित्र संख्या को देखिये ..!
दरअसल, सदियों तक यह माना जाता रहा था कि ऐसी कोई भी संख्या नहीं है जिसे 1 से 10 तक के सभी अंको से विभाजित किया जा सके। लेकिन रामानुजन ने इन अंकों के साथ माथापच्ची करके इस मिथ को भी तोड़ दिया था। उन्होंने एक ऐसी संख्या खोजी थी जिसे 1 से 10 तक के सभी अंकों से विभाजित किया जा सकता है। यानी भाग दिया जा सकता है। यह संख्या है (2520)
संख्या 2520 अन्य संख्याओं की तरह.. वास्तव में एक सामान्य संख्या नही है, यह वो संख्या है जिसने विश्व के गणितज्ञों को अभी भी आश्चर्य में किया हुआ है ..!!
यह विचित्र संख्या 1 से 10 तक प्रत्येक अंक से भाज्य है।
ऐसी संख्या जिसे इकाई तक के किसी भी अंक से भाग देने के उपरांत शेष शून्य रहे, बहुत ही असम्भव/ दुर्लभ है- ऐसा प्रतीत होता है .. !!
अब निम्न सत्य को देखें :
2520 ÷ 1 = 2520
2520 ÷ 2 = 1260
2520 ÷ 3 = 840
2520 ÷ 4 = 630
2520 ÷ 5 = 504
2520 ÷ 6 = 420
2520 ÷ 7 = 360
2520 ÷ 8 = 315
2520 ÷ 9 = 280
2520 ÷ 10 = 252
महान गणितज्ञ अभी भी आश्चर्यचकित है : 2520 वास्तव में एक गुणनफल है 《7 x 30 x 12》का।
🤷‍♂️ उन्हे और भी आश्चर्य हुआ जब प्रमुख गणितज्ञ द्वारा यह संज्ञान में लाया गया कि संख्या 2520 हिन्दू संवत्सर के अनुसार.. एकमात्र यही संख्या है, जो वास्तव में उचित बैठ रही है:
जो इस गुणनफल से प्राप्त है ::
सप्ताह के दिन (7) x माह के दिन (30) x वर्ष के माह (12) = 2520
यही है भारतीय गणना की श्रेष्ठता!

एक अंधी स्त्री न्यूयॉर्क के एक रास्ते पर रास्ता पार करने के लिए खड़ी थी। प्रतीक्षा कर रही थी कि कोई आ जाए और राह पार करवा दे। तभी किसी ने उसके कंधे पर हाथ रखा। और जिसने कंधे पर हाथ रखा उसने कहा, क्या हम दोनों साथ- साथ रास्ता पार कर सकते हैं? उस स्त्री ने कहा, मैं प्रतीक्षा ही कर रही थी। आओ।

दोनों ने हाथ में हाथ डाला और पार हुए। जब उस तरफ पहुंच गए तो स्त्री ने कहा, बहुत-बहुत धन्यवाद कि आपने मुझे रास्ता पार करवाया। वह आदमी घबड़ाया। उसने कहा, क्या मतलब? धन्यवाद तो मुझे देना चाहिए। मैं अंधा हूं रास्ता तो तुमने मुझे पार करवाया। तब तो दोनों घबड़ा गए, पसीना आ गया। रास्ता तो पार हो गए थे, लेकिन तब पता चला, दोनों अंधे थे।

अंधों को पता भी कैसे चले कि हम किसी अंधे के पीछे चल रहे हैं? कतारें लगी हैं। क्यू लगे हुए हैं। तुम अपने आगे वाले को पकड़े हो, आगे वाला अपने आगेवाले को पकड़े हुए है। सबसे आगे कोई महाअंधा महात्मा की तरह चल रहा है। चले जा रहे हैं। न तुम्हें पता है, न तुम्हारे आगेवाले को पता है।

मुल्ला नसरुद्दीन नमाज पढ़ने गया था। होगा ईद का उत्सव या कोई धार्मिक त्यौहार। हजारों लोग नमाज पढ़ रहे थे। उसकी कमीज उसके पाजामा में उलझी थी। तो पीछे वाले आदमी को जरा अच्छा नहीं लगा तो उसने झटका देकर कमीज को ठीक कर दिया। उसने सोचा कि मामला कुछ है। उसने सामनेवाले आदमी: को...। उसकी कमीज में झटका दिया। उस आदमी ने पूछा, क्या बात है? झटका क्यों देते हो? उसने कहा, भाई मेरे पीछेवाले से पूछो। मैं तो समझा कि रिवाज होगा। इस मस्जिद में पहले कभी आया नहीं।

हम कर रहे हैं एक-दूसरे का अनुकरण। रस तो पाया कहां है? रस से तो तुम्हारी पहचान कहां हुई है? रस मिले तो प्रभु मिले। रस पा लिया तो सब पा लिया |

-ओशो
अष्‍टावक्र: महागीता (भाग--5) : प्रवचन--8.....संकलन BY रामजी🙏🌹🌹

During World War II, numerous fighter planes were getting hit by anti-aircraft guns.

Air Force officers wanted to add some protective armor/shield to the planes. The question was "where"?

The planes could only support few more kilos of weight. A group of mathematicians and engineers were called for a short consulting project.

Fighter planes returning from missions were analysed for bullet holes per square foot. They found 1.93 bullet holes/sq. foot near the tail of the planes whereas only 1.11 bullet holes/sq. foot close to the engine.

The Air Force officers thought that since the tail portion had the greatest density of bullets, that would be the logical location for putting an anti-bullet shield.

A mathematician named Abraham Wald said exactly the opposite; more protection is needed where the bullet holes aren't - that is -around the engines.

His judgement surprised everyone. He said *We are counting the planes that returned from a mission. Planes with lots of bullet holes in the engine did not return at all*.

*Debrief*

If you go to the recovery room at the hospital, you’ll see a lot more people with bullet holes in their legs than people with bullet holes in their chests. That’s not because people don’t get shot in the chest; it’s because the people who get shot in the chest don’t recover.

*Remember* the words of Einstein-
*Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted, counts*.

Source:
From the book -
"How Not To Be Wrong", by Jordan Ellenberg.

Count how Safe we are at Home.
After relaxations of lockdown, remember our engines will be exposed.

By Andy Mukherjee

India is reopening, but apart from tipplers who were a little too thrilled about buying their first liquor in 43 days, a partial end to the world’s harshest coronavirus lockdown is failing to bring cheer. Anxiety still clouds the outlook amid a lack of meaningful fiscal help for workers and companies.

Starting Monday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government relaxed restrictions on the production, sale and transport of goods in districts identified as green and orange. However, virus hot spots designated as red zones remain under strict curbs on any activity deemed non-essential. Since 53% of economic output comes from these densely packed clusters, is it reasonable to declare India as half open? Even that may be an exaggeration.

The metropolises — Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Pune, Bengaluru and Ahmedabad — are all classified as red. Intercity movement of people remains suspended with no flights or regular train services. Not being able to access demand in large consumption centers will further constrain production even in places where factories can restart. With migrant workers from rural areas scrambling to get home, the supply chain in a mess, and working capital scarce, even a labor-surplus economy like India’s will struggle to fill pent-up demand.

India has identified an area twice the size of Luxembourg to host factories leaving China, Bloomberg News reported Monday. Getting ready to take advantage of shifting global supply chains in the post-coronavirus world makes sense as a strategy, but it won’t see the country through its more immediate challenge.

Nobody can predict if even the modest normalization of the economy will last. With nearly 43,000 Covid-19 cases and the number doubling every 12 days, the country is still struggling to flatten the curve — even with the lockdown. If loosening leads to new infections in green zones, they could slip into orange. Community outbreaks can quickly turn orange districts into red. That uncertainty itself is enough to keep production down.

Manufacturing is already in dire straits. The plunge in April in the purchasing managers’ index to 27.4 came the same day as the tentative resumption of activity. Even that record-low figure probably sugar-coats the actual situation. As Capital Economics says, the index was lifted by suppliers taking longer to deliver, usually seen as an indication of capacity shortages and excess demand. Last month it was most likely because of supply disruptions.

Automakers couldn’t sell a single car in April. Construction remains at a standstill. In Mumbai, India’s most expensive property market, the government’s tax take from stamp duties on documents was less than $600 for the entire month — all from lease agreements. Not a single change in ownership was registered. The financial sector, which was facing a crisis of confidence even before the coronavirus, is imploding. Even if the partial reopening doesn’t overwhelm India’s limited healthcare capacity, it won’t prevent the economy from spiraling out of control.

Then what will? India’s $2.7 trillion economy has so far had to satisfy itself with a token $22.6 billion stimulus package when it requires at least 5% of GDP — or $135 billion — in federal government support to firms and families, plus at least half as much in extra spending by state governments at the frontline of battling the pandemic. Time is running out. Any package of spending and loan guarantees the government announces will have to be tweaked and fine-tuned to actually work, but red zones can’t stay frozen for even another month. The fiscal bill that the Modi government seems to be trying hard to compress by its color-coded reopening will only balloon.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.)

*हचिको..*

जपान मधील टोकियो विद्यापीठात कृषी विभागात अध्यापन करणारे प्रोफेसर ह्यझरबुरो युनो 1924 साली अकिता प्रजातीतील एक श्वान खरेदी करतात आणि त्याला स्वतःच्या शिबुया येथील घरी घेऊन येतात. प्रोफेसर त्या श्वानाचे नाव हचिको असे ठेवतात. हचिको हा प्रोफेसरांचा खूप लाडका असतो, हचिकोला ते जणु आपला मुलगाच मानत असत. हचिकोचेही आपल्या मालकावर नितांत प्रेम होते. प्रोफेसर राहत असलेले शिबुया हे उपनगर टोकियो पासून दूर असल्याने रोज विद्यापीठात जाण्यासाठी प्रोफेसर ट्रेनने प्रवास करत असत.

रोज सकाळी प्रोफेसर जेव्हा शिबुया स्टेशन कडे चालत निघायचे तेव्हा हचिको श्वान देखील त्यांना सोबत म्हणून शिबुया स्टेशन पर्यंत त्यांच्याबरोबर चालत जाई व प्रोफेसरांना ट्रेन मध्ये बसलेले पाहून घरी परतत. दुपारी जेव्हा प्रोफेसरांची विद्यापीठातुन घरी परतण्याची वेळ होई तेव्हा हचिको शिबुया स्टेशनवर ट्रेन येण्यापूर्वीच जाऊन थांबत व ट्रेन येण्याची वाट पाहत असे. प्रोफेसरांना ट्रेन मधून खाली उतरताना पाहीले की हचिको उड्या मारत प्रोफेसरांकडे जाई , आपल्या लाडक्या हचिकोला पाहून प्रोफेसरही त्याला तितक्याच प्रेमानेजवळ घेत व नंतर दोघे जण चालत घरी जात. एकंदरीत हचिकोचा आणि प्रोफेसरांचा हा रोजचा दिनक्रमच बनला होता.

1925 सालच्या मे महिन्यात नेहमी प्रमाणे हचिको श्वान प्रोफेसर युनो यांच्या बरोबर सकाळी शिबुया स्टेशन वर जातो व प्रोफेसरांना ट्रेनमध्ये बसलेले पाहून पुन्हा घरी परततो. त्या दिवशी विद्यापीठात शिकवत असताना अचानक प्रोफेसर युनो यांचा ब्रेन हॅमरेज मुळे मृत्यू होतो. इकडे दुपार झाली, आपल्या मालकाची येण्याची वेळ झाली म्हणून नेहमी प्रमाणे हचिको शिबुया स्टेशनवर जातो आणि ट्रेन येण्याची वाट पाहू लागतो. स्टेशनवर ट्रेन येते, हचिको सावध होतो, भरपूर अनोळखी चेहरे ट्रेन मधून खाली उतरताना तो पाहतो, आता आपला मालक येईल, आपल्याला प्रेमाने जवळ घेईल मग आपण घरी जाऊ या आशेने तो आतुरतेने प्रोफेसरांची वाट पाहू लागतो. परंतु खूपवेळ वाट पाहूनही हचिकोला प्रोफेसर दिसत नाही व त्यामुळे तो निराश होऊन घरी परततो.

दुसऱ्या दिवशी दुपारी जेव्हा ट्रेन येण्याची वेळ होते तेव्हा हचिको पुन्हा शिबुया स्टेशन वर जातो ह्याच विचाराने की आजतरी आपला मालक ट्रेन मधून खाली उतरेल आणि आपल्याला भेटेल. पण त्या मुक्या जीवाला काय माहित असते की आता त्याचा लाडका मालक कधीच ट्रेन मधून खाली उतरणार नसतो ते. प्रोफेसर गेल्या नंतर हचिकोला सांभाळणारे कोणीही उरले नसल्याने प्रोफेसरांच्या घरी पूर्वी माळी म्हणून काम करनारी कुझाबुरो कोबायाशी ही व्यक्ती हचिकोला स्वतःच्या घरी आणते व त्याचा सांभाळ करते. परंतु असे असले तरी हचिको आपल्या मूळ मालकाला विसरत नाही, दिवसांचे रूपांतर आठवड्यांमध्ये होते, आठवड्यांचे रूपांतर महिन्यात होते आणि महिन्यांचे रूपांतर वर्षांमध्ये. हचिको न चुकता रोज शिबुया स्टेशनवर वेळेआधी जाई आणि ट्रेन आल्यावर कित्येक तास तो त्याच्या लाडक्या मालकाच्या येण्याची वाट पाहत बसत व मालक न दिसल्याने रोज निराश होऊन घरी परतत.

एकदिवस प्रोफेसर युनो यांचा एक विद्यार्थी हिरोकीची सायटो ज्याने अकाती प्रजातीतील श्वानांवर अभ्यास केलेला असतो त्याला हचिकोच्या दिनक्रमाविषयी माहिती मिळते. मिळालेल्या माहिती मध्ये काही तथ्य आहे का? हचिको आजही प्रोफेसरांची स्टेशन वर वाट पाहतो का ? हे पडताळून पाहण्यासाठी तो स्वतः शिबुया स्टेशन वर जातो. तिथे नेहमी प्रमाणे आपल्या मालकाची वाट पाहून कंटाळलेला हचिको घरी जायला निघालेला असतो हे पाहून हिरोकीची अचंबित होतो व हचिकोचा पाठलाग करू लागतो. पाठलागाअंती हिरोकीची हचिको ज्या माळ्याच्या घरात राहत असतो त्या ठिकाणी पोहचतो. कोबायाशी माळी हिरोकीचीला प्रोफेसर गेल्यापासून हचिकोचा असलेल्या दिनक्रमाविषयी इत्यंभूत माहिती देतो. हचिकोचे आपल्या मालकाविषयी असलेली निष्ठा व प्रेम पाहून हिरोकीची भावुक होतो व त्याच्यावर एक लेख लिहितो. 1932 साली हा लेख ( asahi shimbun ) या जपानच्या राष्ट्रीय वृत्तपत्रा मध्ये प्रदर्शित झाला आणि हचिकोची कथा जपानच्या कानाकोपऱ्यात पोहचली व तो संपूर्ण जपानमध्ये प्रसिद्ध झाला.

पूर्वी शिबुया स्टेशन मधील कर्मचाऱ्यांना व तसेच तेथून रोज प्रवास करणाऱ्या प्रवाश्यांना हचिकोचे असे तासनतास स्टेशनच्या आवारात बसने खटकायचे परंतु जेव्हा त्यांना हचिकोच्या तिथे बसण्याचे कारण समजले तेव्हा त्यांना गहिवरून आले व तिथून पुढे त्यांनी हचिकोला स्टेशन मधून हटकणे बंद केले, उलट ते लोक त्याची काळजी घेऊ लागले. इतकेच नव्हे तर लेख प्रसिद्ध झाल्यावर जपानच्या कानाकोपऱ्यातून लोक हचिकोला भेटायला येऊ लागले. हे लोक त्याच्यासाठी खाऊ घेऊन येत असत व त्याच्यासोबत काहीवेळ बसत असत.

हचिको जपानमध्ये एवढा प्रसिद्ध झाला की लोक त्याला निष्ठेचे प्रतिक मानू लागली. हचिको हा जपान मध्ये राष्ट्रीय हिरो बनला होता . 1934 साली शिबुया स्टेशनच्या आवारात एक मोठा समारंभ आयोजित करून हचिकोच्या पूर्णाकृती पुतळ्याचे अनावरण करण्यात आले. इथे सांगण्यासारखी गोष्ट अशी की ह्या पुतळ्याचे अनावरण केले ते खुद्द हचिकोने, तो समारंभाचा प्रमुख पाहुणा होता.

अखेर सलग 9 वर्षे, 9 महिने आणि 15 दिवस न चुकता न थकता आपल्या मालकाची वाट पाहणारा हचिको 8 मार्च 1935 साली वयाच्या अकराव्या वर्षी आपला अखेरचा श्वास घेतो आणि आपल्या लाडक्या मालकाला भेटण्यासाठी अनंतात विलीन होतो. विशेष म्हणजे ज्या ठिकाणी त्याने आयुष्यभर आपल्या मालकाची वाट पाहिलेली असते, तिथेच त्याने अखेरचा श्वास घेतला. हचिको गेल्यावर स्टेशन मधील कर्मचाऱ्यांना शोक अनावर झाला होता.

हचिको गेल्या ची बातमी ही जपानच्या तत्कालीन वृत्तपत्रांमध्ये मथळा म्हणून छापून आली होती. हचिकोचे पाथिर्व त्याच्या मालकाच्या कबरेच्या बाजूला दफन करण्यात आले आहे. हाचिकोच्या मृत्यूनंतर त्याच्या प्रथम पुण्यस्मरणानिमित्त भरपूर लोक शिबुया स्टेशन मधील हचिकोच्या पुतळ्याच्या आवारात जमले होते.

शिबुया स्टेशनच्या ज्या आवारात हचिकोचा पुतळा आहे, त्या ठिकाणी असलेल्या प्रवेश द्वाराला हचिकोचे नाव देण्यात आले आहे.

प्राण्यांना माणसासारखे बोलता जरी येतं नसले तरी त्यांच्या भावना मात्र नक्कीच माणसासारख्या असतात. कुठलाही प्राणी हा जेवढा अन्नासाठी भुकेला असतो तेवढाच तो प्रेमालाही भुकेला असतो. एकदा का आपण त्यांच्याप्रति असलेले आपले प्रेम व्यक्त केले की मग पाहा तेसुद्धा आपल्यावर कसे प्रेम करतात तेही अगदी निरपेक्ष.

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Don’t treat your bank account as an emergency fund
ET Online | Updated: Apr 15, 2020, 09.25 AM IST
Don’t treat your bank account as an emergency fundET Online
By Ashish Modani

I was speaking to a 35-year-old person working in MNC in Noida recently. He told me, “Ashish, I know where my money comes from, but I don't know where it goes.” I would call the situation a total budgeting failure. It is a typical case of I buy what I want and when I want.

Budgeting is a process of creating a plan to spend your money. Budgeting is nothing but balancing your expenses with your income. And it is more important than ever - at a time when we are staring at layoffs, reduction in salaries, fall in profits for business owners, lower interest rates on deposits … These will be the norm in the post-Covid world.

Why is budgeting required?
When you get your income (may be salary or profits), you have to provide for your needs first. If something is left after your needs are taken care of, you may spend on your wants. When we talk of needs, we are talking of needs of present as well as future. We spend on various things to fulfil our current needs. For future needs like retirement, higher education of kids, emergency expenses, we have to set aside money from our present income in the form of investments.

Today, almost 40% of people are living from paycheck to paycheck. This Coronavirus episode has already exposed so many of us to this fact. Many people are running short of money in 21 days without an income. I dread to imagine how they would survive 21 years of retirement.

Many individuals thought that they would never have to face a crisis like this. Personal finance was burdened by EMIs and lifestyle expenses. Suddenly, they are not able to fulfill even basic needs. I am not saying that one needs to live miserly. But not providing for the future and spending recklessly is not a good practice.

Mistakes happen when we fail to take into consideration future needs and start spending everything on our current wants. This leads to a financial crisis in times like these. Also, you won’t have any money to support your future needs when their turn comes.

Most of us knowingly or unknowingly let our wants/greed/lavishness take control of our lives. Faced with a 21-day lockdown, most of us have realized our needs were limited - only our wants were unlimited.

The trouble is as soon as you start walking on the road of lifestyle inflation, it just doesn’t end. As soon as you fulfil one want, another once creeps in. It just goes on and on. There is nothing wrong in fulfilling your wants as long as you have provided for current and future needs. When we focus on our needs, our income seems to be decent enough. However, when we focus on our wants, even the richest feel insecure.

Take baby steps
Taking the first step is the hardest thing to do. But, as they say, a journey of a thousand miles starts with a single step. What better time than the current lockdown of 21 days to start the journey? List down your expenses, categories them into discretionary and non-discretionary ones. Eliminate or reduce discretionary expenses. I know you can't do all things at once but start taking small steps.

Here are some tools that can help you reduce your expenses, especially lifestyle and discretionary ones.

Create an emergency fund in a liquid fund. Don’t treat your bank account as an emergency fund. This is the reason why most people say they don’t know when they swipe their cards and when their bank balance reaches zero.
Ensure you automate your savings through recurring deposits/SIP in debt funds for short to medium term goals. For long-term goals, invest through SIPs in balanced funds or equity funds.
Start SIP in liquid funds for your annual expenses like insurance payments, annual vacations etc.
Track your expenses like subscription of social media accounts, Swiggy/Zomato, outing, clubbing etc.
Avoid the use of credit cards when going shopping. Also, ensure you pay 100% of what is due on credit card by way of auto debit mandates rather than paying through net banking on your own.
(Ashish Modani is the founder of SLA Financial Solutions, a wealth management firm, based in Jaipur)


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What is happening on the FII front? India is still at the receiving end in terms of FII outflows. They continue to sell when global markets are looking better, things are stabilising, the virus spread has not been alarmingly high in India, the lockdown at least initially seems to be working, crude prices have got crushed. But foreign investors continue to throw in the towel, dump and sell and throw names like HDFC, HDFC Bank. Why is that?
Three simple reasons. To begin with, India was coming out of a weak growth backdrop and investors were worried how India’s fiscal and monetary policymakers will handle this new challenge and the policy announcement also took time to come through. Secondly, India’s selling has also been reflective of a broadbased passive selling; probably it is not necessarily active selling, though we have seen that also. Passive selling does not really differentiate whether you have less cases or more cases. Lastly, while India has had fewer cases, markets are also seeming to worry that the risk of a bigger spread in India still remains, because the testing infrastructure has not been ramped up well. So that worry is still lingering on the minds of investors. There is still risk out there, compared with other markets, where we have seen a lot of testing being done already. Investors can have some sense of when this is peaking out. These are the things we are hearing from investors. We may not agree with them but this is what we are hearing from investors.

How does one judge the market right now, because on one side you have got DII buying while on the other side you have got FII selling. I am talking about the near-term predictability of the market. Do you think one should not really bother about what is going to happen over the next three months or should one resign and accept the fact that India will be extremely vulnerable to FII flows in the short term?
In the short term, FII flows will clearly matter. We have seen in the last couple of months that despite domestic buying, the market has corrected. Also, domestic investors might soon be running out of ammunition to keep buying as the market corrects or if the market corrects. So the dependence of the markets on foreign flows is much higher today than it was a month-and-a-half or two months back. The second thing is, we also like to draw parallels from say the GFC period, while FII selling in dollar terms was higher, in percentage terms, in market cap terms, it has been lower. If I look at DIIs, local mutual fund buying is better relatively now compared with that time, when it was much more sporadic. So this dynamic is also relevant in the context that India’s valuations despite the sharp correction have not reached GFC levels if we look at the trailing multiples, which are a fairer way of looking at the market right now. So keep that mind.

How do we look at markets? We have built scenarios. As per our earnings framework, multiples framework, our base case for Nifty is 10,000 for March, 2021, and downside case is 6,000 and upside case 11,600. So the risk-reward may appear attractive here at these levels, but the big presumption here is how coronavirus pans out in India and globally, and that is something which we must remember.

It is very difficult for any of us to model that in as we are not medical or healthcare experts. The big difference for this market cycle versus any of the past cycles is that what we have seen is not a classical market or economic cycle; it is linked to what is happening around coronavirus .

Are you saying you are making a case that Nifty in a bear case scenario could slip to 6,000 level also?
Yes. Our downside case is 6,000, our base case is 10,000 by March 2021 and our upside case is 11,600. If you look at these three scenarios, the risk-reward from the current levels does appear attractive. But yes, given the reality of coronavirus, we should not completely ignore the downside scenario when you are taking investment calls.

In the near term, do you believe a lot more clarity will come next week once we know what is happening with the lockdown in India, whether the government chooses to extend it, whether it gets lifted? Will that sort of arrest a lot of concerns at least in the near term in the market?
Absolutely, that will help. Even this week, we will get more clarity about the big concern as to where India is seeing local transmission versus community transmission. So even this week’s numbers will matter and obviously when the lockdown gets lifted and the actions taken after that will matter.

In the meantime, what is the strategy? Do you try and make that core portfolio assuming Nifty goes to 6,000? I hope not. Or on the way down if do try and time the market, do you just go by those core portfolio names that you want to buy? If they are already in the value zone, would you buy them right away?
It is always tough to time the market even in the best of times. In that context, today’s times are possibly the most uncertain times because it is not just market and economic cycle, it is also about what is happening around coronavirus. But we look at it beyond the valuation metric, even on trailing earnings basis, and look at balance sheets whether they can sustain any further deterioration or continue to deteriorate. What is also worth thinking about are the inherent businesses, how sustainable they are beyond the disruption from coronavirus in the sense that whatever destruction we are seeing today is it plain and simple postponement of demand and, therefore, whether the demand can come back fairly strongly? Or if the business models are relevant or cases where it can hurt now or it will take much longer to come back.

So you look at multiple levels and screen for sectors and stocks. That is how we come up with various scenarios for investors. There will be pockets which have worked well, have been popular in the last couple of years, which in our view, are offering attractive value today, especially the top end of the financial services sector, private banks with retail liability franchise, etc. Then there are a lot of deep value utility in oil and gas stocks, where we do not see any risk to inherent business models and they are attractive at these level. Then, telecom is an obvious one. And then it becomes much more stock specific rather than big picture-specific calls.

While a breakthrough on the medical front of course could potentially lead the recovery, do you think we could see some amount of economic and business normalisation by Q3 or is it still a very long way off given the talks about the kind of ballooning recession that we could witness?
It all depends on how prolonged the disruption is, and how much damage the disruption causes to jobs. Because the more jobs are lost in the interim, the slower the recovery period will be. It takes time for businesses to hire and ramp up. And the longer it gets not just in terms of the physical impact, but also psychologically, because it takes time for businesses to come back. The simple answer is if the lockdown lifts in a couple of weeks from now, and things start normalizing in terms of coronavirus data points, then yes Q3 will definitely have a good recovery. If the lockdown is not lifted completely but there is some mix and match here and there or the impact of coronavirus in terms of cases, deaths is prolonged, then it will be a much more gradual recovery. So, the pace and scale of disruption will matter in terms of pace and scale of recovery.

We have seen some economic relief measures from RBI, but naturally in trouble times such as this, corporate India as well as all of market participants are in need of more measures. Do you think that a huge fiscal stimulus is the need of the hour on top of the recently-announced measures by the RBI? What more do you think needs to be done?
Absolutely. If you look at the GFC period itself, India did almost 4.5% of GDP fiscal stimulus. And today as we speak, even if you combine the stimulus announced by the states, it is roughly 1 per cent or 1.1 per cent of GDP. Obviously as the fiscal space is much smaller today compared with what it was in 2008, that could put things in perspective beyond what other global markets or economies are doing.

Clearly given the disruption, yes there is scope and expectation among investors that there will be more fiscal stimulus coming. There have been reports about what further relaxations or the government will do for SMEs. So it is quite likely that more fiscal stimulus will come. Whether they will replicate the GFC is anyone’s guess. It all depends on the scale and timing of the entire disruption. If this continues for three more months, then obviously we are looking for much bigger fiscal stimulus. If post lockdown things normalise, then we will have possibly one more round but not necessarily similar to the 2008 levels.

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Doctors say it is only a matter of time before Covid sweeps India
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World economy will go into recession with likely exception of India, China: United Nations
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