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Oil languishes below $80 as recession fears outweigh tighter supply......................................................
Oil hovered near a one-year low on Wednesday as increasing concerns over U.S. economic health and the Federal Reserve largely offset positive supply-side signals from a bigger-than-expected draw in crude inventories.

A growing number of Wall Street banks warned of a potential recession in 2023, especially if interest rates keep rising and if inflation proves to be stickier than expected.

Strong U.S. economic data this week suggested that upward pressure on inflation is likely to persist in the near-term, a trend that could invite even more hawkish moves by the Federal Reserve.

Brent oil futures fell 0.3% to $79.51 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures sank 0.1% to $74.16 a barrel in early Asian trade. Both contracts plummeted to a one-year low on Tuesday.

While the Fed is expected to hike rates by a relatively smaller 50 basis points next week, it has warned that rates could peak at much higher levels if inflation continues to trend higher. Rising U.S. interest rates weighed heavily on oil markets this year as liquidity dried up and as traders feared slowing demand due to tighter monetary conditions.

Oil markets largely looked past industry data indicating a bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. oil inventories last week. While crude stockpiles fell, a sustained increase in product inventories, particularly gasoline, indicated that retail demand for fuel remained weak in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Government data due later in the day is expected to show U.S. inventories shrank by 3.3 million barrels last week, compared to a bumper 12.6 million barrel drawdown seen in the last week of November.

Focus this week is also on U.S. producer inflation data for November, which is set to provide more cues on the path of inflation in the country. Any signs that inflation remained high through the past month are likely to trigger more volatility in crude markets.

The dollar extended its recovery into a second session, also adding to the pressure on oil.

Crude markets started the week on a soft note after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies kept production steady during their last meeting for the year.

But crude supplies could still tighten further if Russia cuts production in response to new Western curbs and a price cap on its oil exports.

More signs of an economic reopening in China, the world’s largest crude importer, could also benefit markets with the prospect of improving demand. Several Chinese cities have scaled back anti-COVID measures in response to growing public ire against the government’s economically disruptive zero-COVID policy. ............................................................
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Evergrande aims to win approval for restructuring proposals early next year.............................................................
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Embattled property developer China Evergrande Group aims to win creditors' support for its debt restructuring proposals by as early as the end of February, the company's lawyers said on Monday.

Once China's top-selling developer, Evergrade is now at the centre of the country's property sector crisis. Its $22.7 billion worth of offshore debt, including loans and private bonds, is deemed to be in default after missed payments late last year.

With few fresh funding options and slowing property sales, Evergrande, which has $300 billion in total liabilities, began one of China's biggest debt-restructuring processes this year.

Evergrande expects to firm up debt restructuring proposals by end-February or early-March, lawyers for the developer told a Hong Kong court, which adjourned a winding-up lawsuit against the developer to March 20, 2023.

Reuters reported earlier this month that Evergrande would sign non-disclosure pacts with bondholders in November to prepare for negotiation in December, with terms to be finalised early next year, citing a source with knowledge of the matter.

An investor in online real estate and automobile marketplace Fangchebao (FCB), an Evergrande unit, filed the winding-up petition in Hong Kong in June because the developer had not honoured a pact to repurchase the shares the investor bought in FCB.

Evergrande and its major offshore credit group have opposed to the winding-up petition, saying the developer was actively pushing forward with the offshore debt restructuring work in the interest of all creditors.............................................................
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Billionaire investor Ackman bets Hong Kong dollar peg can break.............................................................
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Billionaire investor Bill Ackman said he's betting the Hong Kong dollar will fall and that its peg to the U.S. dollar can break, the latest big money manager to take a public short bet as U.S. rate hikes turn the blowtorch on Hong Kong's currency system.

"We have a large notional short position against the Hong Kong dollar through the ownership of put options," he said on Twitter. "The peg no longer makes sense for Hong Kong and it is only a matter of time before it breaks."

The Hong Kong dollar has been pegged in a tight band between 7.75 and 7.85 per greenback for nearly four decades and tends to face pressure - and thus far unsuccessful speculative challenges - every time U.S. interest rates go up.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority maintains the peg by moving interest rates in lockstep with the U.S. Federal Reserve and by currency intervention, which drains Hong Kong liquidity and is designed to drive local rates up until inflows stabilise the currency.

Earlier in the month, Hong Kong's financial secretary sought to warn speculators.

"If you bet against the Hong Kong dollar, you are bound to lose," Paul Chan told an audience at an investment summit in the city.

However, some economists say the speed and scale of this hiking cycle is the sternest test yet, particularly as Chinese growth falters, making for an uncomfortable time to be raising rates.

U.S. fund manager Kyle Bass has long bet against the Hong Kong dollar and told Nikkei in July he expects the peg to break. The details of his position or of Ackman's were unclear. A spokesman for Ackman's fund, Pershing Square, declined to comment further and Bass' Hayman Capital Management had no immediate response to a request for comment.

Liquidity is also draining very fast as the HKMA has sucked up about $30 billion in some 40 rounds of intervention since the Fed began raising rates in March.

Earlier this month, the aggregate balance - a key gauge of cash in the banking system - fell below HK$100 billion ($12.8 billion) for the first time since 2020.

The one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offer Rate currently stands at a 14-year high.

Since May, the Hong Kong dollar has been pinned near the weaker end of its band, though has lifted a bit in recent weeks as markets start to price a peak in U.S. rates. It was last at 7.8142 per dollar.

A spokewoman at the HKMA said it would not comment on any individual's commentary about the peg.

However, "some market participants have at various times expressed their queries about HK’s linked exchange rate system (LERS) over the years. These comments are primarily based on their own misunderstanding on the HK’s system, or the position of their own books," she wrote in an email reply to Reuters.

The LERS has endured several economic cycles and periods of significant capital flows over its near 40 years of operation, continues to perform well and does not need to change, the HKMA said.............................................................
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Oil rises on Saudi supply signals, but demand fears cap gains.............................................................
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Oil prices rose on Tuesday following commitments to tightening supply from Saudi Arabia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), although concerns over slowing demand in China and a potential U.S. recession kept gains muted.

Crude markets reversed sharp losses in a volatile session on Monday after Saudi Arabia, the leader of the OPEC said reports suggesting that the cartel planned to hike supply in December were false.

Instead, the OPEC will commit to its 2 million barrel per day supply cut until the end of 2023, and also stands ready to support prices with more cuts, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said.

While his comments helped crude prices recover sharply from a 10-month low, they still remained well below highs hit earlier this month, amid growing concerns that China’s COVID lockdowns and a potential U.S. recession will dent demand.

Brent oil futures rose 0.5% to $87.89 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.4% to $80.33 a barrel by 22:45 ET (03:45 GMT). Both contracts rose 0.2% on Monday after a volatile session that saw crude sink to January lows.

Crude prices fell sharply last week as rising COVID-19 infections in China raised concerns over slowing demand in the world’s largest oil importer. The country introduced lockdowns in several major cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, as it struggles with a record-high rate of daily new infections.

China’s oil imports slowed substantially this year, and despite a surprise jump in October, are broadly expected to remain muted in the coming months. The country has also ramped up its export quotas, likely indicating a surplus in local stockpiles.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs slashed its oil price forecast for the year, citing the slowdown in China.

Also chipping away at crude prices were concerns over a U.S. recession, particularly as several Federal Reserve members suggested that U.S. interest rates were set to keep rising in the near-term.

Markets fear that a mix of stubborn inflation and high interest rates could hobble growth in the world’s largest economy. The OPEC recently cut its 2022 and 2023 oil demand forecasts citing similar concerns.

Strength in the greenback, as the Fed raises rates, is also expected to weigh on crude rates, which are priced in dollars.

On the other hand, tightening supply in Europe, especially as the west clamps down on Russian oil exports, could benefit crude oil towards the end of the year.

The OPEC’s recently announced supply cut was also seen going into effect this month, as several members began curbing shipments.............................................................
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Chinese carmakers target more European sales with five-star EVs.............................................................
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SOLIHULL, England (Reuters) - Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers have set their sights on winning over European drivers and large corporate customers with more affordable cars that come with top safety ratings and lots of high-tech features.

In the last few months, several Chinese EVs have received five-star European New Car Assessment Programme (NCAP) ratings - an achievement that requires loading vehicles with active and passive safety features that go well beyond legal requirements.

More are coming.

"All Chinese EV makers want to achieve Euro NCAP five-star ratings in order to be more competitive in the European market," said Brian Gu, president of Chinese EV maker Xpeng (NYSE:XPEV).

Gu said Xpeng has spent the last three years building stores and service centres in Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden - with some initial sales in Norway - before an official launch next year of its electric P7 sedan and G9 sports-utility vehicle (SUV) in the four countries.

Chinese EV makers have recognised that safety plays an incredibly important part of the sales process, said Matthew Avery, director at Thatcham Research, a British car research centre funded by insurers and a Euro NCAP board member.

Five-star Euro NCAP ratings are seen as key to overcoming residual European concerns over the quality of Chinese-made cars, after awful crash test failures in 2006 and 2007 created an impression that cars from China were unsafe.

Perhaps more importantly for sales, high safety ratings also open up the potentially huge corporate car fleet market for Chinese EV makers.

Fleet sales make up about half of all car sales in major markets including Germany, France and the United Kingdom, and many corporate buyers put a premium on safety.

"Fleet sales are very important and a lot of fleets have a mandatory five-star rating for buying cars," Avery said.

CAR RENTAL COMPANIES

What's more, many fleets want to switch to EVs fast to meet sustainability goals. But corporate fleets have struggled to get enough EVs in Europe as supply chain issues have pushed waiting times for some models to more than 12 months.

High demand for electric cars amid supply chain shortages has allowed European carmakers to raise EV prices and focus more on retail clients, rather than customers such as car rental firms that have traditionally been less profitable for them.

That has created a window of opportunity for Chinese EV makers that have already stolen a march on most foreign rivals in China, by far the world's biggest market for EVs.

In October, for instance, German car rental company Sixt said it would buy about 100,000 EVs from BYD, starting with its Atto 3 SUV which received the coveted Euro NCAP five-star rating the same month.

China's Great Wall Motors (GWM) received five-star ratings in September for its WEY brand Coffee 01 hybrid SUV and its ORA brand Funky Cat electric sedan.

European carmakers are also pursuing five-star ratings for their EVs and hybrids, from BMW's iX to Volkswagen (ETR:VOWG_p)'s ID.4 and ID.5. In October, Mercedes got the top rating for its EQE sedan and its driver-assistance features received the highest marks to date from Euro NCAP.

Chinese EV maker Aiways has yet to put its U6 electric crossover through its NCAP paces but it too is shooting for the highest rating on offer, said Alexander Klose, who heads the carmaker's operations outside China.

He said Aiways has invested in extra safety features for the U6 to open up opportunities for sales to European fleets, including rental car firms, when it goes on sale next year.

"There will be a natural demand for vehicles like ours that are fully equipped and come at very competitive prices," he said, adding that Aiways hopes to sell 30,000 EVs in Europe in 2023, up from about 5,000 this year.

BASIC REQUIREMENT

French auto consultancy Inovev said about 155,000 Chinese-made cars were sold in Europe in the first nine months of 2022, or 1.4% of the market. Chinese firms are on track to hit 150,000 cars this year, nearly double the 80,000 sold in 2021.

But almost half the Chinese cars sold were EVs, according to Inovev, giving them a 5.8% share of Europe's fully-electric vehicle market.

Inovev vice-president Jamel Taganza said all Chinese cars sold in Europe would be EVs within a few years, with more lower-cost models on the way.

By 2030, Inovev estimates EVs will make up 40% of Europe's new car sales and that Chinese brands will represent between 12.5% to 20% of that fully-electric market, with sales of between 725,000 and 1.16 million vehicles.

"This is a conservative forecast," Taganza said. "But it could increase more rapidly, especially if European carmakers do not answer the needs in Europe of affordable EVs."

Getting a five-star rating is expensive for automakers because it means investing in additional safety features from extra airbags to collision avoidance, driver-assistance and driver-monitoring systems.

Thatcham's Avery said Chinese EV makers have actively engaged with Euro NCAP and were eagerly making the investments necessary to land top ratings.

"Forget what you might think that Chinese means lower quality or lower safety performance," he said. "Their quality is now better than others."

BYD is launching three cars in a handful of European markets and will add more models and markets next year, all of which should have top safety ratings, said Michael Shu, managing director of BYD Europe.

"We think a five-star rating should be a very basic requirement," he said.

'LEVERAGING THAT ADVANTAGE'

Great Wall Motor's ORA Funky Cat, meanwhile, will launch in Britain, Germany, Ireland and Sweden later this year.

Starting around 32,000 pounds ($36,330) in Britain, or about 5,000 pounds cheaper than VW's ID.3, the Funky Cat's features include facial recognition to store seating preferences, driver-assistance systems, reverse camera and wireless phone charging.

Toby Marshall, UK sales and marketing director for GWM's ORA brand, said if a car is well made, laden with features, has a high safety rating and is competitively priced, it no longer matters where it was built.

"Those are the key ingredients that matter to car buyers," Marshall said, while showing off the Funky Cat at his office in Solihull in England's midlands.

Bill Russo, head of consultancy Automobility Ltd in Shanghai, said the problem for many international carmakers with was that they ceded the advantage to Chinese rivals when it comes to building lower-cost EVs.

"The one place on the planet you'll find an affordable EV today is China," said Russo. "And they're leveraging that advantage."............................................................
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Asia FX edges higher, but hawkish Fedspeak limits gains.............................................................
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Asian currencies rose slightly on Friday as they recovered from a series of bruising sessions, with sentiment remaining constrained after hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve drummed up fears of more rate-hike action by the central bank.

China’s yuan was among the best performers in the region, rising 0.4%. But the currency was set to lose about 0.3% this week as concerns over rising COVID-19 cases and softening economic growth weighed.

The Japanese yen rose 0.2% as data showed consumer inflation surged to a 40-year high in October. The reading, which heralds increasing pressure on the Japanese economy, drove speculation that the Bank of Japan may be forced into eventually tightening monetary policy.

The bank has maintained ultra-low interest rates for the better part of a decade, and has so far given no indication that it plans to raise them. But this has also caused a sharp decline in the yen this year, as rising interest rates in other countries saw traders sell the yen in favor of better yields.

The dollar index and dollar index futures traded flat on Friday, but were set to gain slightly for the week after hawkish signals from the Fed saw markets reassess their expectations of more interest rate hikes.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday that even under a dovish assumption of monetary policy, the Fed still needs to keep raising interest rates given that rate hikes this year have only had a limited effect on inflation.

Bullard said interest rates need to rise to at least 5% to 5.25% from current levels of near 4% to be able to sufficiently curb inflation. While data this month showed U.S. inflation softened more than expected in October, Bullard noted that this could easily change in the next month.

His comments boosted the dollar in overnight trade, and also supported U.S. Treasury yields. This spurred losses across most Asian currencies on Thursday.

While markets are still pricing in a relatively smaller 50 basis point hike by the Fed in December, Bullard’s comments tie in with signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that rates could peak at higher levels than initially thought.

In Southeast Asia, the Philippine peso rose 0.3%, supported by a bumper 75 basis point rate hike by the central bank. The bank also forecast more hawkish moves to curb inflation and to match the Fed’s pace of rate hikes.

Losses in the Indonesian rupiah were also limited after the country’s central bank hiked rates on Thursday and signaled more action against inflation.............................................................
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Asian stocks mixed, dollar finds footing as traders assess Fed outlook.............................................................
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TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian stocks were mixed on Thursday while the U.S. dollar stabilized and Treasury yields remained depressed as investors tried to assess the outlook for Federal Reserve policy following stronger-than-expected retail sales data.

Renewed expectations the Fed will keep hiking rates have increased concerns about the economic outlook. The U.S. Treasury yield curve remained deeply inverted in Tokyo trading, suggesting investors are bracing for recession.

Rhetoric from Fed officials has remained hawkish this week, as they sought to rein in recent market optimism that a pivot in the central bank's hawkish rate-hiking campaign might be close following cooler consumer and producer price data.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Wednesday there is still a ways to go on rates, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told CNBC pausing rate hikes is not yet part of the discussion.

The U.S. dollar was largely flat against a basket of major peers, finding its feet following a slide to a three-month trough earlier in the week. Safe-haven support it garnered early Wednesday from a deadly explosion in Poland faded, with NATO now saying the missile was a stray fired by Ukraine's air defences and not a Russian strike.

"Fed speakers were clear that a pause is not imminent," Ted Nugent, a markets economist at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY), wrote in a client note.

"Like the resilient spending numbers, (that) gave little succour for anyone looking for an imminent pivot," resulting in "a more cautious tone in markets," he said.

Japan's Nikkei was little changed, recovering from early, Wall Street-inspired losses, while the broader Topix index was up 0.4%.

However, Hong Kong's Hang Seng tumbled 1.35%, with its tech stocks plunging 2.91%.

Mainland Chinese shares also declined, with blue chips falling 0.57%.

Australia's benchmark added 0.19%. South Korea's Kospi dropped 0.58%.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slid 0.77%.

U.S. e-mini stock futures, though, indicated a 0.3% rebound at the reopen following the S&P 500's 0.8% overnight retreat.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hovered near the six-week low at 3.671% hit overnight in Tokyo trading, while the two-year yield continued to consolidate near its lowest level since Oct. 28 at around 4.38%.

The dollar index - which measures the currency against six major counterparts - added 0.07% to 106.34, stabilizing following its slide to as low as 105.30 on Tuesday following the release of producer price inflation numbers.

Money markets currently give 93% odds that the Fed will slow to a half-point rate hike on Dec. 14, with just 7% probability of another 75 basis point increase. However, traders still see the terminal rate as close to 5% by next summer from the currency policy rate of 3.75-4%.

Gold was slightly lower at $1,772.62 an ounce after safe-haven demand ebbed.

Crude oil continued to decline in Asia after settling more than a dollar lower overnight after Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary restarted and as rising COVID-19 cases in China weighed on sentiment. [O/R]

Brent crude futures dropped by 62 cents, or 0.7%, to $92.24 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 65 cents, or 0.8%, to $84.94 a barrel..............................................................
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MetaQuotes to talk about clientele increasing technologies at Finance Magnates London Summit 2022.............................................................
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From November 21 to 23, the MetaQuotes team will participate in the Finance Magnates London Summit 2022, one of the leading fintech and payments conferences. This year's London Summit will bring together more than 3,500 attendees, 130 speakers and 150 exhibitors. Attendees can expect to network, and learn from leading companies and key decision-makers, in multiple industry segments, which are key to the future of the finance sector.

Our representative will make a separate presentation to showcase the latest MetaQuotes technologies, which can assist in increasing brokerage clientele. We will talk about the latest innovations which can have a notable positive impact on the market and on individual businesses.

Key topics for the London Summit:
The all-new Web Terminal running on all device types, operating systems and web browsers. One of the major innovations provides a responsive interface for touchscreens and mobile devices.MetaTrader 5 Access Server Hosting — the solution to improve client access to trading facilities while considerably reducing network delays.Finteza end-to-end analytics for brokers — the only out-of-the-box solution for MetaTrader 5 which enables the comprehensive tracking of user activity across the platform.The Automations service with more than 100 ready-to-use scenarios for real-life brokerage tasks alongside ultimate customization features.The latest MetaTrader 5 release with a plethora of new features and improvements.Visit us at booth 122. We will be happy to meet you in person and answer your questions. See you at the event!.............................................................
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MetaTrader 5 Web: Mobile trading from any iPhones and Android devices.............................................................
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The new MetaTrader 5 web terminal is available on all Apple and Android devices. Regardless of iPhone versions and browsers, traders can fully manage their trading accounts using a mobile device. Furthermore, there is no need to download a mobile app from the Apple App Store or Google Play.

The new MetaTrader 5 Web provides a fully featured trading terminal from which users can:

Work with demo and live accounts
Receive any financial symbol quotes
Execute trading operations in any financial marketsAnalyze symbol quotes using more than 30 indicatorsUse Economic Calendar data for fundamental analysisAll these features are available from any mobile browser. The .popular night theme is also supported.

The new MetaTrader 5 Web Terminal has become faster and more efficient. The application has not just been optimized — it has been redeveloped from scratch. The new core has enabled faster response to commands and greater operational stability. The web terminal is safe to use since all transmitted information is securely encrypted..............................................................
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