Strata Analytica

The rice war

And the winner is….

Kita telah lihat peta pencalonan Perikatan Nasional mengikut parti-partinya. Posting kali ini kita kongsikan p**a peta pencalonan Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional.

Ini untuk Selangor sahaja dulu yea. Sabar...negeri-negeri lain akan menyusul insya-Allah.

Hari ini 29 Julai 2023, adalah hari penamaan calon di 6 negeri yang akan mengadakan Pilihanraya Negeri PRN15, baki daripada negeri-negeri yang tidak melakukan pilihanraya negeri serentak dengan Pilihanraya Umum PRU15. Untuk memudahkan para peminat politik tanahair, kami akan kongsikan sedikit maklumat awal.

Dua blok utama yang akan bertembung keras ialah gandingan Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional (PH-BN) lawan Perikatan Nasional (PN). Sudah tentu ianya akan menjanjikan pertarungan yang sengit. Sila terus mengikuti perkongsian kami di sini.

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Padang Serai mengesahkan ke mana undi Melayu pergi...

Ramai telah meramal bahawa jika BN dan PH bergabung, maka PN akan ditewaskan di kawasan parlimen lebih 60% pengundi Melayu ini. Lebih-lebih lagi ianya adalah kerusi yang telah dimenangi calon PKR yang berketurunan India berturut-turut pada dua PRU yang lalu.

PAS masuk arena pada PRU 14 dan telah berjaya mengalahkan calon BN namun PKR/PH masih unggul. PRU 15 pengundi telah bertambah 48 ribu. Namun ramai menjangka Jumlah Keluar Mengundi(JKM) akan jatuh drpd 83% pada PRU 14 kepada 60%-62%, kerana hari mengundi bukan pada hujung minggu. Benar, JKM hanya setakat 68%. Ini telah memberi impak kepada undi sedia-ada semua pihak. Pengundi tegar PH seramai 16.4 ribu tetap bersama PH sementara 18.9 ribu pengundi tegar PAS mengundi PN.

Daripada 26.2 ribu pengundi PH dari PRU 14 yang turun mengundi, 9.8 ribu telah berpindah menyokong PN. Sementara itu daripada 12.8 ribu pengundi BN yang turun mengundi hanya 6 ribu komited mengundi PH sementara 4 ribu telah berhijrah menyokong PN. Dalam pada itu ada 2.8 pengundi tegar BN masih memangkah BN dan 200 pengundi baru turut terkeliru memangkah calon BN yang telah pun mengundur diri.

Daripada 33.5 ribu pengundi baru, 1.6 ribu memilih BN, GTA dan calon-calon Bebas, 13 ribu adalah pengundi PH dan 18.9 ribu adalah pengundi PN. Beza pengundi baru PN dengan PH hanyalah 5.9 ribu. Sedangkan majoriti adalah 16.2 ribu iaitu 36.4% shj drpdnya adalah pengundi baru. Akhirnya PN telah mengutip 51.6 ribu sementara PH hanya berjaya mengepung 35.4 ribu.

Penyokong PH telah menuduh bahawa PN menaburkan fitnah dalam medsos untuk memenangi pengundi muda, tetapi jika diteliti majoriti sebanyak 16.2 ribu adalah sebenarnya bukan pengundi baru semata tetapi hasil undi lari BN dan PH serta ditambah dengan pengundi baru yang lebih mesra PN selain pengundi tegar PN yang sudah pun melebihi 2.5 ribu pengundi PH.

Sekian bedah-siasat kami, tanpa merujuk kepada scoresheet atau borang 14. Bagi yang ada capaian kepada scoresheet, mereka akan boleh melihat pergerakan pengundi dalam memilih parti pada PRU 15. Kesimp**an kami secara ringkas ialah, PN masih punya sokongan yang kuat di kawasan majoriti Melayu. See less

Padang Serai mengesahkan ke mana undi Melayu pergi.
Ramai telah meramal bahawa jika BN dan PH bergabung, maka PN akan ditewaskan di kawasan parlimen lebih 60% pengundi Melayu ini. Lebih-lebih lagi ianya adalah kerusi yang telah dimenangi calon PKR yang berketurunan India berturut-turut pada dua PRU yang lalu.

PAS masuk arena pada PRU 14 dan telah berjaya mengalahkan calon BN namun PKR/PH masih unggul. PRU 15 pengundi telah bertambah 48 ribu. Namun ramai menjangka Jumlah Keluar Mengundi(JKM) akan jatuh drpd 83% pada PRU 14 kepada 60%-62%, kerana hari mengundi bukan pada hujung minggu. Benar, JKM hanya setakat 68%. Ini telah memberi impak kepada undi sedia-ada semua pihak. Pengundi tegar PH seramai 16.4 ribu tetap bersama PH sementara 18.9 ribu pengundi tegar PAS mengundi PN.

Daripada 26.2 ribu pengundi PH dari PRU 14 yang turun mengundi, 9.8 ribu telah berpindah menyokong PN. Sementara itu daripada 12.8 ribu pengundi BN yang turun mengundi hanya 6 ribu komited mengundi PH sementara 4 ribu telah berhijrah menyokong PN. Dalam pada itu ada 2.8 pengundi tegar BN masih memangkah BN dan 200 pengundi baru turut terkeliru memangkah calon BN yang telah pun mengundur diri.

Daripada 33.5 ribu pengundi baru, 1.6 ribu memilih BN, GTA dan calon-calon Bebas, 13 ribu adalah pengundi PH dan 18.9 ribu adalah pengundi PN. Beza pengundi baru PN dengan PH hanyalah 5.9 ribu. Sedangkan majoriti adalah 16.2 ribu iaitu 36.4% shj drpdnya adalah pengundi baru. Akhirnya PN telah mengutip 51.6 ribu sementara PH hanya berjaya mengendong 31.4 ribu.

Penyokong PH yang menuduh bahawa PN menaburkan fitnah dalam medsos untuk memenangi pengundi muda, tetapi jika diteliti majoriti sebanyak 16.2 ribu adalah sebenarnya bukan pengundi baru semata tetapi hasil undi lari BN dan PH serta ditambah dengan pengundi baru yang lebih mesra PN selain pengundi tegar PN yang melebihi 2.5 ribu pengundi PH.

Sekian bedah-siasat kami, tanpa merujuk kepada scoresheet atau borang 14. Bagi yang ada capaian kepada scoresheet, mereka akan boleh melihat pergerakan pengundi dalam memilih parti pada PRU 15. Kesimp**an kami secara ringkas ialah, PN masih punya sokongan yang kuat di kawasan majoriti Melayu.

If you wanna call this the "pahat yang masih berbunyi setelah rumah dah siap", you can't be far wrong mate... But this chisel is not to rake unwarranted holes to the house, perhaps it's more of appreciating the artwork of the house and adding more understanding to the underlying reasons why the house could have been built better with the right base component. ahaa..

Well, you see ... it goes without saying that the rakyat has shown their swing of confidence to PN... the data says so. No, it's not just the First-Time-Voters. Yes, of the 2.7 mil FTVs a huge chunk indeed went to PN. In fact 1.2 mil went to PN, 900k went to PH and only 600k went to BN. But that wasn't all that happened mate.

Truth be told, the base votes for PH has shrunk from 5,030,000 to 4,320,000 and 710,000 of those voters switched over to PN, don't worry about whether the beneficiary is BERSATU or PAS, ok. On top of that, the base votes for BN has shrunk from 3,270,000 to 2,640,000 and 630,000 of those voters have parted ways with BN and voted for PN instead.

In summary, the base votes for PN grew from 2,010,000 (PAS) in GE14 to 3,400,000 in GE15 and adding the FTVs to PN's collection, the net voters for PN now stands at 4,610,000. Staggering isn't it? Whilst in GE14, PH had benefitted from 1.169 mil of BN swingers, in GE15, 60% or 710k of those voters had decided to switch to PN.

If you want to know how the ground has shifted, this is it. But the ground movement did not manifested itself in synchrony with the seats movement. Poor PN is again outplayed and this time for not reaching the 95 or at least 90 seats in the Peninsular in order to rope in the remaining numbers from Borneo for a simple majority.

The chisel had exposed more gems covered by the dirt 😁... at least. If in GE14, PH was added by the Galah Sejengkal, this time round PN went for broke without any extension pole ... the galah sejengkal wasn't handy too. 😉

Now, who should be worried here? BN of course! Losing 1.1% votes as compared to the last GE. And?
PH increased in votes by 6.7% ... is that good enough? Look at who is stealing the votes and increasing by over 90%.

What's going on in Sarawak? We know that in the 12th State Elections, BERSATU withdrew their candidates, including Datuk Ali Biju. The ghost candidate somehow picked up 13.6% of the votes from the unaware Krian voters. That was despite Datuk Ali also campaigning for the GPS candidate.

This time round in the recently concluded GE15, PN put in 4 candidates i.e. at Batang Lupar (from PAS), Lubok Antu, Saratok and Bintulu, the later 3 all from BERSATU. Did PN and GPS broke ranks?

Rumours has it that, Abg Jo cut a deal with BERSATU to withdraw from the State Elections but will consider the chance in the GE15. It wasn't as tight a deal on paper, so come GE15 GPS still declared that they will contest on all 31 seats, leaving the BERSATU aspiring candidates in awe.

Before that, one of the incumbents from BERSATU had joined GPS and therefore BERSATU/PN was left with a solitary seat. Despite the GPS's chief verbal "arrangement" with BERSATU top leaders, the GPS component parties did not see the so called "arrangement" as legitimate. Their Sarawak for Sarawakians call reigned supreme. And of course none of the components would want to give away any parliamentary seat to an ally outside of GPS.

So, the GE15 saw PN fielding in 4 candidates. The result was a solitary PN win in Saratok where the incumbent Datuk Ali Biju retained the seat with a respectable majority. It was after all just a sibling rivalry, said some quarters.

Would you like a further dig into the Sarawak affairs?

We all know that F-P-T-P is the rule. So, winning just marginally on a single seat is more meaningful to a party than adding more votes and winning by a huge margin on an already safe seat.

From GE12 we have noticed how seats got swapped between opposing parties. From GE12 to GE13 the two main coalition BN and PH swapped 15 seats between them causing a net zero gain/loss on both sides.

From GE13 to GE14 BN lose 32 seats to PH whilst stealing a single seat from PH. In addition BN lost another 5 seats to PAS. PAS also took away 13 seats from PH as it broke away going solo in GE14.

GE15 saw PAS partnering BERSATU in PN. PH lose 5 seats to BN but 21 to PN. BN lose 31 seats to PN. The net movement of seats in PRU15 may not represent the actual inclination of the new voters. They may have just followed their parents or influenced by the social media campaign especially tik-tok.

The net movement in PRU15 was PH minus 26, BN minus 31 and PN plus 52. The real winner in terms of the voters shift is obviously PN. The result, a hung parliament. But the King based on article 43 (2)(a) decides to appoint the 10th PM in his judgement who is likely to command the confidence of the majority and proposed a Unity Government.

What do you think? Didn't the voters showed enough that they were shifting towards PN?

But there again... as we have always said securing a mere 70ish or even 80ish seats in the 165 seats arena will not be enough. The safe level is always 90 and worry about the 22 from the Borneo counterparts. Or better still get 95 in West Malaysia.

The much discussed pop**ar votes that PH supporters hyped they had the most as well as the most number of seats. Factually correct if one looks at the spot value. But if we look back and study the trend, someone smart in PH should be concerned how PH's share had dropped in the last couple of GEs i.e. from 54% to merely 40% in GE15. And look who is gaining?

GE14 saw PAS breaking away from PH, taking with her 13 seats and gained another 5 from BN/UMNO to earn a decent 20% pop**ar votes equivalent.

At the recent GE15 however, the PN label has brought the fight to another level. UMNO losing more grounds to none other than the PN coalition particularly in the East Coast, and likewise PH shrinking its dominance to 40% pop**ar votes share at a gain by PN, bringing the previous PAS tally of 20% to 34%.

What actually hit UMNO/BN? You tell me...😀

Asia and Africa will produce 8 of 10 world’s pop**ation

Ruble is in trouble…

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Those with engineering or contract documentations are welcomed.
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