Forex Signals

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Market News
Canadian dollar seen rebounding as high oil price feeds trade surplus: Reuters poll - REUTERS
MAY 05, 2022
TORONTO (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar will claw back its recent decline over the coming year, as elevated oil prices bolster Canada's trade surplus and the central bank potentially hikes interest rates just as much as the U.S. Federal Reserve, a Reuters poll showed.

The loonie has lost ground since it touched 1.24 per U.S. dollar, or 80.65 U.S. cents, in April. This has occurred as the safe-haven greenback has been supported against major currencies by bets that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates aggressively to tame inflation.

On Wednesday, the Fed hiked by half a percentage point, its biggest single move in 22 years.

Still, the Canadian dollar has fared better than most other G10 currencies in 2022, shielded by domestic economic strength, including a string of monthly trade surpluses. Data on Wednesday showed Canadian exports climbing to a record high in March.

"With the price of oil where it is, Canada's trade surplus should continue to provide good support for the loonie," said Greg Anderson, global head of foreign exchange strategy at BMO Capital Markets in New York.

"The more that the market accepts that oil north of $100 a barrel is not a spike phenomenon but is something that is longer lasting, the more that we'll see some of those petro-greenbacks converted into Canadian dollars."

Canada is a major producer of oil, which has climbed more than 40% this year as Western sanctions on Russia have disrupted supplies.

The median forecast in the poll was for the Canadian dollar to strengthen 1.3% to 1.2568 per U.S. dollar in three months' time, compared with a forecast of 1.25 in last month's poll. Over the coming year, it will climb to 1.23 per dollar, according to the latest poll.

The Bank of Canada raised interest rates by a half a percentage point on April 13. Investors are expecting several more such moves, lifting the benchmark rate to 2.50%, the middle of the central bank's so-called neutral range, by September.

A neutral interest rate is the level that a central bank estimates will neither boost nor restrain economic activity.

The BoC is one of the most hawkish of the major central banks, "maybe more so than the Fed," said Erik Nelson, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo.

A combination of a hawkish central bank and high oil prices "to me signals Canadian dollar resilience," Nelson said.

(Reporting by Fergal Smith; Polling by Anant Chandak and Sarupya Ganguly in Bengaluru; Editing by Bradley Perrett)

Market News
Dollar drops after Fed hikes rates as expected - REUTERS
MAY 04, 2022
NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) - The dollar fell in volatile trading against a basket of currencies on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by half a percentage point, the biggest jump in 22 years.

The rate increase was widely expected. The U.S. central bank set its target federal funds rate to a range between 0.75% and 1% in a unanimous decision, with further rises in borrowing costs of perhaps similar magnitude likely to follow.

The Fed also said that its $9 trillion balance sheet would be allowed to decline by $47.5 billion per month in June, July and August and the reduction would increase to as much as $95 billion per month in September.

The dollar index was last at 103.20, after getting as low as 103.07 immediately after the Fed statement.

The euro rose to $1.0553, after briefly reaching$1.0573.

The dollar was 129.87 against the Japanese yen , after briefly dropping to 129.75.

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Gold is on the verge of a rally to 2,000, especially if the US election tension spills into next week.
Support at 1,950 is key to ensuring that buyers keep their eyes on the ultimate prize, 2,000.

Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Encouraging data but little action expected

WTI 1-hour chart
WTI has been in freefall for most of the week dropping 5.28% this week following on from last weeks loss of 8.16% drop. There has been a small recovery and now it seems there is a consolidation forming. For the beginning of next week then there is a floor and ceiling level to look out for and a break could be significant for the future trajectory of the commodity. This week's Baker Hughes data shows that roughly the same amount of rigs are only as last week and the trend is now stabilising near this number of 180.

There seems to be more emphasis on the rising production levels of the OPEC+ group and the possibility of more lockdowns. The inventory levels in the US from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Department of Energy (DoE) were slightly higher than expectations but not enough to inspire such a sell-off.

Longer-term, the price is still in an uptrend but this sell-off is confirming the technical trend change. Fundamentally things do not look so good for the bulls and unless the OPEC+ group manage to do another deal or extend the taper agreement so it stretches out there could be more pain to come. It seems more and more likely some of the major economic nations like the UK are experiencing a second wave of COVID-19 infections and this with put more pressure on the price.

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Hedging in Forex

Opinions about hedging in forex are different, and some experts are totally against it. Some brokerages indeed allow the investors the usage of so called hedge positions, this signifies keeping two or more trading positions open simultaneously. The trader opens a position for a certain currency, and then for the same currency the reverse position is also getting open. Thus it is possible to avoid the margin call, because failure of one position is insignificant due to the profit on the other position. Many individuals prefer to trade forex with a hedge fund broker and with the usage of hedging, as they try to secure their trading by the second.

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