Cunning trader

NEPSE finally broken sakels to register 33+ points up move

Is it time to buy,hold or sell? Let's figure it out together

WEEKLY:
starting form higher time frame as it always rule. It is critical area as just at the level of 60rsi area breakout above this area can be grace.
IDEAL SITUATION: breakout above this area and again retracement to 60 rsi finally providing better up move

DAILY:
Today's candle has caused positive impact which shows move up to 3012-3018 area is likely to occur . After that market may not necessarily correct heavily but may pause with indecision. (3012-3018 is area of cluster of resistance)
IDEAL SITUATION: move up to above mentioned area and retracement up to 60 rsi as support and finally a great move

HOURLY:
A significant breakout above middle of Bollinger band(20 MA) with great volume but candle is half formed so full candle will be formed at 11:30 which will guide us.

Conclusion: it may not be correct time to buy heavily as resistance area is near but it is advisable to partially sell up to above mentioned area and wait for shake off and re-enter.

"When emotions are on higher side intelligence on lower"
Thank you
Peace out!!!!

NEPSE WEEKLY ANALYSIS

from the continuous downfall of NEPSE in past week it is trying to get stable by the formation of small real body at the end of the trading week, in addition to that we can see a range shift in daily time frame as it has turned from bearish zone to sideways zone. now the major concern for NEPSE is 50MA which is acting as the obstacle for now, in contrary to that if NEPSE gives breakout from 50MA with good volume than this can be possible and risk free entry.
the weekly candle shows the formation of legged doji at important support area i.e 20MA which shows the bears have lost some momentum also we can seel the positive reverse divergence which is the continuation pattern i.e rsi making lower low and candles(lines) higher lows which shows that despite losing momentum market is able to maintain its higher low, which is positive sign .
for the clear view click below
THANK YOU!!! https://www.tradingview.com/x/JvbYvvsz https://www.tradingview.com/x/AjRLY3a6

TradingView Chart See more on tradingview.com

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Nepse in continuous fall. Generally in bull market there is time correction I.e markets corrects for longer period in proportion to the price but this recent correction in nepse is price correction price has hugely corrected in short span of time. This resembles the correction which took place in April 2021.In that period many people were stopped out below 50MA then another day we have huge bullish engulfing candle which made the bottom.

Then what is the scenario then
-if tomorrow market shows any sign of reversal such as formation of bullish engulfing candle, hammers , inverted hammer , Harami cross with good volume then this might be the time of entry
- Tomorrow if market don't show any sign of reversal I.e tentatively If market corrects for more than 30 points then this might be biggest correction
Moreover lets do a detailed study of April 2021 correction and this correction because both are similar in many ways because of following reasons
-Both are price correction
- in both people are stopped out below 50MA
- presence of active buyers in critical stage
Moreover the correction of April 2021 is 9.61%(-265.33) and this correction is so far 7.91%( 255.56 ) below 50MA for better visualization , chart is provided below
hope this helps!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5gDXbphQ

TradingView Chart See more on tradingview.com

Nepse witnessed whooping 56.03 points down in the first trading day itself after long wait .

Then what is the scenario now
Nepse last candle is within 20MA and rsi 60 support as well as accumulation of candle within the area this was about day candle but what interesting is that formation of double bottom in price action and rsi at hourly time frame which suggest market may reverse tomorrow as the immediate support area is between 3115-3124 and there is strong support at 3061 in case bears gain some control. So possible condition are
- market may reverse from tomorrow or go sideways to prepare for a whoping move

- if market breaks the immediate support it can be tackled by strong support at 3061 which makes market more stringer

What Is the strategy then
If market breaks immediate support then profit booking can be done but if market goes sideways or shows the sign of reversal add the stock which you currently holding except hydro

Keep hustling keep learning every upmove,downmove,profit or loss is the opportunity to learn
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