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Forex Trading
1 week Progress

Forex | Intraday
GBP/CAD Short

August 25, 2022

The GBP/CAD is up 0.15% this Thursday after two consecutive days of weakness. These come as crude oil price on the Brent benchmark takes a breather from three days of gains, putting the Loonie on the back foot. However, the overall sentiment on this pair remains bearish as crude oil fundamentals continue to assume an overall bullish tone, which has expected to benefit the Canadian Dollar at the expense of a battered Pound.

Some weeks back, the Bank of England’s pessimistic outlook on the U.K. economy triggered the current round of bearishness on the pair. This week’s dismal manufacturing PMI data and the steep drop in the CBI Business Expectations Index have helped to weaken the Pound further.

Conversely, three days of solid demand for crude oil as the Iran nuclear negotiations stall and market rumors of an OPEC + oil production cut have seen the commodity-linked CAD gain traction this week. These triggers have combined to send the GBP/CAD lower by 0.29% this week. The GBP/CAD is on the path toward a third successive weekly loss, dropping 71% and 0.86% in the previous two weeks.

GBP/CAD Short (Sell)
Enter at: 1.52263
T.P_1: 1.51530
T.P_2: 1.50200
T.P_3: 1.48939
S.L: 1.54212

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Signal........

Forex | Swing
EUR/USD Short
August 22, 2022 | 07:56:30 UTC

The market expects the Federal Reserve to once again lower its key rate significantly in 2023 whereas the Fed itself assumes that it will have to continue keeping its key pace at quite high levels for some time to fight inflation successfully and also seems willing to do so. Economists at Commerzbank expect the US dollar to stay strong.

USD to appreciate significantly if things develop as the Fed assumes
“‘Disconnect’ implies for the USD exchange rates: the risks point towards USD strength.”

“If the Fed caves in, not much will happen to the USD exchange rates. To assume the contrary, one would have to assume that there is a considerable segmentation between the money market (on which the Fed projections are being priced in) and the FX market. That is possible short-term but unlikely.”

MsFxTrading
“Currently, we project EUR/USD exchange rates of 0.98 by year-end, based on our house view that there will be Fed rate cuts next year. If the market tips and its disagreement with the Fed comes to an end, lower EUR/USD levels would also be possible.”

EUR/USD Short (Sell)
Enter at: 0.99391
T.P_1: 0.97321
T.P_2: 0.95664
T.P_3: 0.93537
T.P_4: 0.91708
S.L: 1.03546

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Signal...........

Commodities | Swing

Silver Short
August 22, 2022 | 08:19:18 UTC

Silver is trading slightly above the 19.00 level. Strategists at TD Securities expect the precious metal to extend its decline.

The additional downside in demand on the horizon
“Our quantamental indicators are pointing to the additional downside in demand on the horizon, which fits with the weakening in growth dynamics. However, silver markets appear particularly vulnerable to the additional downside, given their little exposure to the rise in supply risk premia that has supported industrial metals.”

“We also expect its precious-metal allure to fade into the Jackson Hole symposium, where we expect Chair Powell may push back against market expectations that rate cuts may immediately follow the hiking cycle.”

“As the pain trade in gold gathers steam, we anticipate a capitulation event in gold that should further weigh on silver prices.”

MsFxTrading

Silver Short (Sell)
Enter at: 18.754
T.P_1: 18.305
T.P_2: 17.887
T.P_3: 17.422
S.L: 19.683

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Signal......
Indexes
Dollar Index Long
August 22, 2022 | 08:53:12 UTC
The dollar continues to perform very well. This trend looks set to continue this week which will culminate with a speech on Friday by Federal Reserve Chair, Jay Powell on the economic outlook, and economists at ING report.
The dollar is in the ascendance –
“This week’s focus should be on some mildly positive US data and culminate in Fed’s Powell speech on the US economic outlook on Friday. The Fed is probably quite comfortable with the market prices for its policy rate this year (around 125 bps of hikes to a 3.50-3.75% target range.) What could be vulnerable to re-pricing higher would be the subsequent 40 bps of easing priced in for the second half of next year. The Fed is quite keen to counter notions of a 2023 pivot.”
“With European and Chinese data remaining soft this week – and no end in sight for the surge in gas prices – expect the dollar to hold its gains.”
MsFx Tading
“The 109.30 July high in DXY looks like the direction of travel.”
Dollar Index Long (Buy)
Enter at: 108.237
T.P_1: 109.644
T.P_2: 111.663
T.P_3: 113.954
T.P_4: 114.894
T.P_5: 116.753
S.L: 103.965
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USD/JPY IN M30

Currency Strength Meter

Long Term Signal 01

Gold

SELL @ 1765

TP 1 @ 1760
TP 2 @ 1742
TP 3 @ 1725
TP 4 @ 1699
TP 5 @ 1685
SL @ 1796

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