Timer ETF

Warm wishes for a wonderful holiday season and a happy new year from all of us at TIMER.

South Africa first reported the omicron Covid-19 variant to WHO on November 24, 2021. The WHO designated it as a variant of concern on November 26 surprising world markets. On Friday, November 26, the S&P 500 index fell 110 points (2.3%) and the yield on the 10-year note dropped 17 basis points from 1.65% to 1.48%.

The yield on the 10 year note is a non-time based rational entity which reflects the dollar-denominated sum total of current expected annual real global GDP growth and current expected annual global inflation.

Before we go further delineating the factors affecting the benchmark 10 year note yield, it is important to note that the stock market keeps time, the bond market does not. Initially we, at TIMER, had postulated that both stock and bond markets must keep time. However, while the stock market has validated our postulate, our work over the last decade indicates that the bond market does not.

Before we delineate the variables affecting the 10-year note, we want to highlight that the 10-year is the most widely tracked government debt instrument in finance. Its yield is often used as a benchmark for other interest rates, such as mortgage rates. Source: Investopedia bit.ly/3mI8SvI

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The next few posts shall attempt to delineate the variables that affect the 10 year yield. This will help us further understand which comparisons to the predictions by the TIMER Algorithm and data collected by the International Monetary Fund, The World Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis are relevant.

Just wanted to quickly highlight that in all but one case (2019 nominal US GDP - St. Louis Federal Reserve) , the mean 10 year yield is lower than the various GDP calculations depicted in the graph of post 10/19/21.

The apparent visual correlation (please refer to previous post) between the average 10 year yield and the $ denominated annual global World Bank GDP (%) data (2012-19) needs further investigation.

A quick post on the 2021 S&P 500 Operating Earnings Estimate. The consensus is around $201-202 a share; the TIMER Algorithm is predicting that the S&P 500 close on 9/3/21 of 4535.43 is pricing in 2021 EPS of $209.9.

Annual Mean and Standard Deviation Data for the 10 Year Note 2012 -2019 is available in the Facebook Post 8/24/21. However, we shall be using only the annual mean of the 10 year note to compare its yield to data from the TIMER Algorithm, The International Monetary Fund, The World Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

The next few posts shall compare the annual average 10 year yield with predictions by the TIMER Algorithm and data collected by the IMF, The World Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Just wanted to highlight that the which correlates both stock and bond markets predicts that the current 10 year yield of around 1.3% is artificially suppressed.

Just wanted to highlight again that the bond market does not keep time; the stock market does. So in the graph posted July 13, 2021, World bank GDP data and the 10 year note are both consistent in terms of time.

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses World Bank data (LinkedIn Post 5/18/2021) for global GDP (Source - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NYGDPMKTPCDWLD). However, it does provide US GDP and Inflation data (LinkedIn Post 5/4/2021).

Gross Domestic Product for World Graph and download economic data for Gross Domestic Product for World (NYGDPMKTPCDWLD) from 1960 to 2019 about , and GDP.

The TIMER Algorithm calculates the $ denominated nominal global GDP growth using stock market and S&P Global data - https://spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/ … (refer to Facebook post 5/4/2021).

S&P 500® - S&P Dow Jones Indices The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities. There is over USD 11.2 trillion indexed or benchmarked to the index, with indexed assets comprising approximately USD 4.6 trillion of this total. The index includes 500 leading companies and covers approximately 80...

Nominal Dollar Denominated Global GDP Growth - Timer Algorithm

In the 1st quarter of 2021, the stock market moved further ahead in time (2025). The S&P 500; Wilshire 5000 and the Russell 2000 indices all hit all-time highs.

Wilshire 5000 index eclipsed the 2020 pre-Covid high of 34,533.94 (2/19/20) on 8/17/20 and closed at 34,632.25 (Refer to graph in Facebook Post 4/06/21)

S&P 500 index eclipsed the 2020 pre-Covid high of 3386.15 (2/19/20) on 8/18/20 and closed at 3389.78 (Refer to graph in Facebook Post 3/23/21)

2020 reconstituted (May 8, 2020) Russell 2000 eclipsed the 2019 pre-Covid Russelll 2000 high of 1705.21 (1/16/20) on 11/24/20 and closed at 1853.53 (Refer to graph in LinkedIn Post 3/9/21)

Effect of May 8, 2020 Reconstitution on the Russell 2000 Index