Margo Godwin, Mortgage Lender

🚨BREAKING NEWS!🚨

The Fed cut their target rate by a full 50bps today! This was a big start towards the winding down of anti-inflationary policies. In fact, Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that if they had some of the data that came out right around the last July Fed meeting, a cut may have come even sooner.

On top of that, the Fed’s Dot Plot revealed expectations for an additional 50bps cut over the November and December meetings this year. That could mean 25bps each, 50 in one, or something else entirely as they get more data in.

What does this mean for you? It means it’s time to meet with your Realtor & Lender “Me” and get a game plan together. It’s time to get off the fence and find that home you’ve been waiting to purchase.

If you wait too long you’re going to be competing with multiple offers and home prices will be higher than they are now! So give me a call and let’s get you pre-approved for a home loan!

I’m super excited to be joining Steve Kyles Team at SMP Mortgage, Inc! 😃I have a lot of new ways to help my referral partners grow their business 💵 and an amazing team to help my borrowers through the loan process so they can experience a smooth and flawless closing! 🙌

Realtors if you would like to find out how I can help you grow your business please DM me or give me a call at 713-962-7262!

It’s such an honor to help buyers purchase their first home! Using our 🔟-day close helped them win the offer! 👊 I could not be happier or more excited for them! Many thanks to .renee.russell for going above and beyond for her buyers! 🙌

Congrats to and her sellers! 🎉

Weekly Rate Update: Inflation Tames. Consumers Spend. 💰

🔗 Full story at the bio link! Last week’s economic data revealed stable inflation but a surprising surge in consumer spending, raising concerns about future interest rate cuts.

📊 Market Update

The big news last week all about inflation and consumer spending. On Wednesday, we got new inflation numbers that were about what experts expected. But on Thursday, we learned that people are spending more money shopping than anyone thought.

Is Inflation Finally Chilling Out? 😎

This week's economic saga began with a surprising development in the inflation narrative. The Producer Price Index (PPI) missed expectations, posting a flat 0.0% for the core month-over-month reading, undercutting the forecasted 0.2%. The next day, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit it’s expected mark at 0.2% for its core month-over-month reading.

Consumers Flex Their Spending Muscles? 💪

Just when the dust began to settle, the retail sales report swooped in to shake things up. Analysts braced for a modest 0.3% uptick, but instead, we got walloped with a 1.0% surge. It's as if consumers collectively decided to throw caution to the wind and indulge in a nationwide shopping spree.

The Job Market's Steady Beat 🥁

The employment landscape remains steady despite broader economic shifts. The latest weekly jobless claims came in at 227,000, undershooting expectations and reinforcing the trend of stability in the labor market.

Fedwatch: Rate Cuts in September 📉

The market has collectively decided that there are absolutely rate cuts coming at this next Fed meting, scheduled for September 18th. It’s seemingly not a question of if, but how much will the cut be?

*Source Shoutout* A huge thank you to our friends at Mortly.com for making our lives easier and providing this market content that we've adapted for our friends and clients.

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Weekly Rate Update: Market Whiplash - Yen Effect 💴

🔗 Full story at the bio link! Market volatility surged as a bond rally sparked by Fed comments reversed course, driven by unexpected Yen carry trade unwinding, economic data, and weak bond auctions, leaving mortgage rates in flux.

📊 Market Update

Remember last week's Fed speak that had everyone buzzing?

Well, it kicked off a rally that would make even the most seasoned market watchers raise an eyebrow. But as we all know, what goes up must come down – and boy, did we see that play out this week.

Japan’s Yen-Trade-Carry-Who? 💹

Ever heard of the Yen carry trade? It's not a sushi delivery service, I promise.

This complex financial maneuver involving Japanese Yen was reportedly behind much of the market volatility we saw early last week. As this trade unwound, it sent shockwaves through global markets, affecting everything from stocks to bonds.

The Yen carry trade is like a financial position that some big investors take advantage of. They borrow money in Japanese Yen (because it had very low interest rates) and then use that money to buy things in other countries that give higher returns.

On Monday, this trade suddenly went haywire as Japan’s central bank raised rates in an effort to calm their rising inflation. This caused a big shake-up in the stock and bond markets around the world.

*Source Shoutout* A huge thank you to our friends at Mortly.com for making our lives easier and providing this market content that we've adapted for our friends and clients.

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Another 🔟-Day Close y’all!!! 👊 This cute young couple just got married and then bought their first home together! To say they were excited was an understatement! I am so happy for them!! 🏡🍾🥂

I have to give a shout out to with for going above and beyond for her buyers! 🙌

Weekly Rate Update: Jobs Shake Bond Market 😱

🔗 Full story at the bio link! The unexpected jobs report has rattled the bond market and potentially altered the Federal Reserve's outlook, prompting speculation about earlier-than-anticipated interest rate cuts in 2024.

📊 Market Update

Did the economic landscape just shift beneath our feet? This week in finance has been a whirlwind, with the bond market sending signals that are impossible to ignore.

Jobs Report Shakes Things Up 🫨

Friday's jobs report came in like a thunderbolt, shocking many analysts and potentially reshaping the Federal Reserve's outlook. The numbers were eye-opening: only 114,000 new jobs added (compared to the expected 175,000) and unemployment ticking up to 4.3%. This isn't just a blip on the radar – it's a potential game-changer.

Powell's Poker Face 🫥

Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave us his best poker face, trying hard not to tip his hand about future rate cuts. But the market is pretty good at reading tells, and Powell's carefully chosen words left the door wide open for potential cuts in 2024. He even mentioned the possibility of "several" cuts next year – music to the ears of many investors.

Connecting the Dots 🤓

It's not just about jobs and Fed-speak. We've seen a string of data points that paint a picture of a changing economic landscape: 1) Inflation seems to be cooling its jets, with recent data showing encouraging signs. 2) The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed fewer job openings and a decrease in voluntary quits – suggesting the white-hot job market might be normalizing. 3)The Employment Cost Index came in lower than expected, hinting at easing wage pressures. Put it all together, and what do you get? A bond market that's starting to price in a new reality – one where the Fed might need to pivot sooner rather than later.

*Source Shoutout* A huge thank you to our friends at Mortly.com for making our lives easier and providing this market content that we've adapted for our friends and clients.

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Weekly Rate Update: Fed's Next Move ♟️

🔗 Full story at the bio link! This week's update assess how the mortgage market reacted to economic data and political news, with a focus on inflation indicators like the PCE price index, while markets now fully expect a Federal Reserve pivot in September.

📊 Market Update

The mortgage market kicked off this week reacting to political headlines, but quickly shifted focus to economic data. The big news was the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which slowed to a annualized rate of 2.6%.

Understanding the PCE Price Index 🤓

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index acts as a comprehensive economic barometer. It measures the average change in prices for all personal consumption, tracking costs across a wide range of goods and services, from everyday groceries to big-ticket items like cars. By monitoring these price fluctuations over time, it provides economists with a gauge of inflation in our economy.

Fed Watch: September Pivot? 🙏

There’s nearly zero (ok, 4%) chance of a pivot later this week (Wednesday is Fed day), but the market is now fully expecting a pivot in September. While a 100% chance might seem like a slam dunk, the betting markets at the CME change often (and fast). These predictions, shown above, are based on what traders think will happen, not what will definitely occur. It's like weather forecasts - they can be pretty accurate, but they're not always right, especially when looking far ahead.

New economic data, unexpected events, or changes in inflation could all cause these predictions to shift dramatically. So while this 100% prediction is interesting and worth paying attention to, it's not set in stone.

*Source Shoutout* A huge thank you to our friends at Mortly.com for making our lives easier and providing this market content that we've adapted for our friends and clients.

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Weekly Rate Update: Job Market Showing Cracks 👷‍♂️

🔗 Full story at the bio link! Despite steady mortgage rates, higher-than-expected jobless claims hint at potential labor market weakness, which could influence future Fed decisions and mortgage rate trends.

📊 Market Update

Last Thursday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) had everyone chomping at the bits, and the market is still feeling its effects. Bonds have been gently trending stronger since then, showing a resilience that's pretty surprising to say the least.

Retail Sales Hidden Gem 🛍️

Tuesday's Retail Sales report attempted to shake things up. The headline number came in at 0.0%, appearing unremarkable at first glance. However, once you strip away the drag from auto sales and gas, we saw a 0.8% increase - the highest since January.

The Jobs Report: A Closer Look 🔍

Thursday brought us the weekly jobless claims report, and it provided some food for thought. Claims rose to 243,000, higher than the expected 230,000. This particular week's data aligns with the survey period for the upcoming non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, making it especially significant. The higher-than-expected jobless claims could potentially indicate a softening in the job market. The market's reaction to this news was mixed, with some back-and-forth trading before settling on a slightly bullish stance. The prospect of a softer job market seems to have bonds feeling optimistic, as it could mean the Federal Reserve might be more inclined to consider rate cuts.

About Jobless Claims 🤔

You might be wondering why we're talking about jobless claims in a mortgage newsletter. Well, it turns out these weekly reports can have a big impact on mortgage rates. Jobless claims are essentially a count of how many people have filed for unemployment benefits in a given week. It's like taking the economy's temperature - a sudden spike might indicate a fever. When jobless claims rise unexpectedly, as they did this week, it can signal that the job market is weakening. This often leads to lower interest rates, including mortgage rates.

*Source Shoutout* A huge thank you to our friends at Mortly.com for making our lives easier and providing this market content that we've adapted for our friends and clients.

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I’m so excited for these 1st time homebuyers! and have been looking for the right house for a while and finally found it over 4th of July weekend! Our 🔟-Day close secured the deal! 👊

Then hurricane Beryl hit and the house had no power so couldn’t get inspection or appraisal. Once power came back we rushed inspection and appraisal and luckily found an appraiser to do it because all of them were backed up! Even with all these challenges our amazing team kept the loan moving and we closed on time!!! 🏡🔑🍾🥂

Many thanks to with for always going above and beyond for his clients! 🙌

Congrats to Bao Tran with eXp Realty and his sellers! 🎉

Weekly Rate Update: Rate Cut Odds Soar 📈

🔗 Full story at the bio link! This week's update examines how recent economic indicators, including a cooler-than-expected CPI report and shifting Fed rate cut probabilities, suggest potential changes in the mortgage rate landscape.

📊 Market Update

Beneath the market's calm exterior last week, anticipation was building. Everyone was waiting for two big events: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress and Thursday's all-important inflation report.

Powell Takes the Stage 🎤

On Tuesday, Powell stepped into the spotlight. His message? "We're not ready to cut interest rates just yet, folks." It's like when your parents say, "We'll see..." about that big request you made - it's not a no, but it's definitely not a yes either. The markets had hoped for a hint of rate cuts on the horizon, but Powell kept his cards close to his chest.

The Consumer Price Index 💵

The June CPI report, released last Thursday, showed lower-than-expected inflation. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.1% month-over-month, below the forecast of 0.2%. Year-over-year, Core CPI increased 3.3%, lower than the expected 3.4%. The housing component, which has been a significant driver of inflation, showed its smallest increase since before the pandemic.

Fed Cut in September 🗓️

The odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut have taken a surprising turn, according to recent CME Fedwatch data. A cut at this months meeting on the 31st stands at a measly 6%. Fast forward to September, and we're looking at a staggering 94% probability. What sparked this dramatic shift? It seems Powell's recent Congressional testimony played a key role. By not pushing back on market expectations, he effectively opened the door to rate cut possibilities. The trend continues into November, with the likelihood climbing to 97%. By December, it's practically a certainty in the market's eyes. What does this mean for you? If you care about mortgages, these shifting expectations could translate to more favorable (lower) interest rates down the line. However, it's crucial to remember that in the world of economics, nothing is set in stone until it happens.

*Source Shoutout* A huge thank you to our friends at Mortly.com for making our lives easier and providing this market content that we've adapted for our friends and clients.

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"Friends, every week we try to give you an update on what happened that impacted the market last week and how we think it will change things for rates moving forward. By necessity, I must begin this week on a different note.

First, on a national note. While our clients, referral partners and even our own team members vary on politics, what we all share is a great love of country and a concern for her well-being. We want to see America thrive and become the best version of herself, for us and for our children.

This week, I am thanking God that President Trump was not assassinated. Had he been, I can only begin to imagine the damage it would have done to our country and by extension, the market. It is hard to fathom how far reaching the consequences would have been. Every rate prediction for the coming years would have been burned up immediately. Housing, the market, I can only imagine.

America has been an amazing experiment that has overcome hardship and trial, over and over again. But there are days and moments where I feel the weight of her fragility. This weekend, Donald Trump was not the only one who dodged a bullet, the whole nation did. Regardless of where you land politically, we need to realize that this country that we love is not invincible. She is strong, she is resilient but she only persists as long as we hold fast to the ideals of her founding, “… that [ALL] men are created equal, they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.”

I emphasize “all” because that is what makes us America. Our belief that all are equal and all are deserving of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Most especially, those you don’t agree with. This weekend has renewed in me a great awareness that we need to be praying for our country and our leaders. Whether you agree with them or not. If you want God to bless our country, then our country needs your prayers.

Second, on a local note. Houston is still recovering from Hurricane Beryl. I just got power last night and I know many of you are still without. Hang in there, help is on the way. Contracts are still being executed and the market is coming back to life as power is being restored.

I would expect the aftermath of this storm to continue cause delays on closings for the next couple of weeks. From appraisers to title companies, insurance agencies to lenders & realtors, these natural disasters are disruptive and add additional things that we must attend to before transactions can close.

Be patient, be persistent, but expect some minor delays regardless of who you are working with. Of course, if you know of someone whose contract is being delayed, let us know. If we can help, we will! Still have time to get loans in and closed in July!

God bless America, God bless Houston, God bless you and your family."

- Austin Baker, Branch Manager

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Weekly Rate Update: Jobs and Services 💼

🔗 Full story at the bio link! This week's update evaluates how job openings surge while services slump, sending mixed signals to the market. Find out how this economic tug-of-war could impact your mortgage rates.

📊 Market Update

This week put two economic heavyweights under the microscope: the job market and the services sector. Why these two, you ask? Well, they're the dynamic duo of the economy - their performance can make or break your mortgage rates.

The Job Market: It's Complicated 🤔

Remember your first relationship status on Facebook? Yeah, the job market is giving us major "It's Complicated" vibes right now. Job openings unexpectedly jumped to 8.14 million. Fantastic, right? Well, not so fast. The unemployment rate also ticked up to 4.1%. It's as if the economy is hosting a massive job fair, but some attendees are still wandering around the parking lot, resume in hand.

The Services Sector: From Hero to Zero 📉

The ISM Services index dropped to 48.8, way below expectations. For those keeping score at home, anything below 50 is considered contraction. The services sector is like the oil in the economic engine. When it's running smoothly, everything purrs along nicely. When it starts to sputter... well, let's just say it's time to check your financial dipstick. A slowdown in services can mean less spending, which can lead to job losses, which can lead to... you guessed it, changes in interest rates.

Pivot Chance Climbs in November 📈

At the end of July, there was only an 8% chance of this change. But by September, it jumped to 77%. As we get closer to November elections, the chances have gone up even more, to 88%. A pivot by the end of 2024 still remains likely given the current trends. You’ll definitely want to keep an eye on this. A change in the Fed's approach could lead to lower mortgage rates, and quickly. Remember, nothing is certain in the financial world. Things can change quickly.

*Source Shoutout* A huge thank you to our friends at Mortly.com for making our lives easier and providing this market content that we've adapted for our friends and clients.

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To all my referral partners and buyers, this beautiful home in Southwest Houston just went on the market! It has been completely updated and is stunning! Seller is wanting a quick close! If any buyers are interested I will see if they are eligible for our 10 Day Close! DM or call me at 713-962-7262.

Open House is Saturday 7/6 & Sunday 7/7 from 1-4pm! COME SEE IT!!

I’m so excited for my first time homebuyers! 🥳 We did a 2-1 Buydown with 4% the 1st year, 5% the 2nd year, and 6% the 3rd year paid for by the seller and with our 10 Day Close! 👊🙌 Many thanks to with !

Congrats to with RE/MAX The Woodlands & Spring and his sellers! 🎉

Weekly Rate Update: Steady Bonds, Unsteady Housing ⚖️

🔗 Full story at the bio link! This week's update dives into an analysis of the steady bond market, challenging housing landscape, and increasing speculation about a Fed policy pivot in the coming months.

📊 Market Update

As June comes to a close, we’ve seen some notable movements in the bond market, updates on housing, and insights into consumer sentiment.

This week, we’ll dive into the bond market's recent quiet spell, educate you on the importance of housing market indicators, discuss the potential for a Fed policy pivot, and look ahead to next week’s economic calendar.

Bond Market's Quiet Spell 🤫

This past week was relatively calm for the bond market, especially considering the lack of major economic data. Monday started with a narrow trading range for 10-year yields, remaining within Friday’s high and low marks.

Housing Market: Navigating Choppy Waters 🧭

In May, we saw housing starts (the sandcastles being built) drop to their lowest level in four years. t's a challenging market, but increased inventory could mean more options. Keep an eye on mortgage rates - even a small decrease could improve affordability.

A Fed Pivot by December? 🤔

Despite ongoing inflation concerns, there's growing optimism that the Fed might pivot towards easing its monetary stance sooner than anticipated. Recent data, including lower-than-expected retail sales and steady personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation numbers, give us hope.

*Source Shoutout* A huge thank you to our friends at Mortly.com for making our lives easier and providing this market content that we've adapted for our friends and clients.

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We could help free up your equity with a HELOAN! 🏡💸 Whether it’s renovations, another big purchase, debt consolidation, or literally anything else, utilizing the cash already in your home could be a great option.

Curious? Let’s run the numbers together! 🤓

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Weekly Rate Update: Slowdowns and Showdowns 🤼‍♀️

🔗 Full story at the bio link! This week's updated explores the housing market's stumbles, oil's price climb, and how they're setting the stage for an economic tug-of-war.

📊 Market Update

This week, the mortgage market decided to take a little siesta after the Fed's "hold steady" performance. It's like watching a sloth race, but with more economic implications.

Red Light. Green Light. 🚦

The week kicked off with a chorus of Fed officials urging patience on rate cuts. Apparently, they're not in a rush to lower rates. Who knew central bankers could be such teases? Midweek, we got a retail sales report that was about as thrilling as watching paint dry. Sales rose a whopping 0.1 percent in May. It's like the economy is playing "Red Light, Green Light," and we're stuck in yellow.

Housing Market: The Incredible Shrinking Starts 🤔

Housing starts in May fell to the lowest reading in four years, dropping 5.5 percent month-over-month to an annual rate of 1.277 million. It's like builders collectively decided to trade their hammers for Netflix subscriptions. Building permits, the crystal ball of future construction, declined 3.8 percent to 1.386 million. Existing home sales dipped by 0.7 percent month-over-month to a 4.11 million annualized pace. It seems the housing market will remain subject to inventory constraints that could exacerbate affordability pressures.

Crude Awakening ⛽️

Now, let's turn our attention to everyone's favorite slippery commodity: crude oil. Crude was down on Friday, but don't let that fool you. It's up a whopping 10% from its low close on June 4th. The 10-Year Treasury and crude oil have been dancing together all year. Their strong correlation over the last year suggests they're in a committed relationship, and it's one worth keeping an eye on.

*Source Shoutout* A huge thank you to our friends at Mortly.com for making our lives easier and providing this market content that we've adapted for our friends and clients.

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Weekly Rate Update: Fed Holds, Rates Drop 📉

🔗 Full story at the bio link! Mortgage rates dropped for the second consecutive week as the Fed kept rates unchanged, signaling potential stability ahead.

📊 Market Update

This past week finally gave us a break in interest rates, starting with high anticipation of key economic reports and concluding with a touch of optimism.

Inflation Data & Fed Decisions 🤓

The much-anticipated CPI data on Wednesday showed a modest increase of 0.2% month-over-month. The Fed also decided to keep interest rates unchanged and projected only one rate cut in 2024. This caused mortgage rates to drop slightly, providing a small sigh of relief for homeowners. By Thursday, the bond market was buoyed by favorable PPI and Jobless Claims data. The Fed’s steady hand on interest rates, with just one cut projected for 2024, seemed to sit well with the market, and mortgage rates continued their downward trend. As the week wrapped up, reflections on the Fed’s decision showed mortgage rates falling for the second straight week..

Understanding the Fed's Dot Plot 🤔

The dot plot gives insight into the Fed’s thinking about where rates are headed. If the dots suggest higher rates, it might mean higher mortgage rates down the line. Conversely, if the dots trend lower, we might see rate cuts on the horizon. On the latest dot plot, we see a significant number of dots clustered around 5% for 2024, indicating that most Fed officials expect the federal funds rate to remain relatively high through next year. Moving into 2025, the dots spread out more, with a noticeable trend towards lower rates, suggesting some optimism about rate cuts in the future. By 2026, the dots show an even broader spread, with many officials projecting rates to fall between 3% and 4%. So, next time someone mentions the dot plot, you’ll know it’s not about polka dots but the potential future of your mortgage rates.

A Fed Pivot by November?⏳

The updated dot plot and Fed commentary has given the market updated expectations of a future Fed pivot. December now boasts a whopping 97% of a pivot, while September has risen to a modest 70%.

*Source Shoutout* A huge thank you to our friends at Mortly.com for making our lives easier and providing this market content that we've adapted for our friends and clients.

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These buyers found the perfect home for their entire family. They are some of the most giving & caring people I’ve met. This was a challenging loan but everyone went above and beyond to make it happen! Thank you with for always helping your buyers and exceeding their expectations! 🙌

Congrats to .jodyroche with and her sellers! 🎉

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And the funds are forgivable after just 3 years! 👏 Don't let your clients get hoodwinked into something that sounds good until you read the fine print. Keep it local with a team you trust.

And yes, we can even 10-day DPA deals! 💪

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Weekly Rate Update: Job Market Twist 🤔

🔗 Full story at the bio link! The latest job market data reveals a complex picture with higher payroll numbers but an increasing unemployment rate, indicating potential challenges in the full-time job market.

📊 Market Update

Quick Recap 🧐

The latest payroll numbers have thrown a curveball with May’s data showing an impressive 272,000 new jobs added, a significant increase from the revised 165,000 in April and far exceeding the expected 185,000.

Despite this positive result, the unemployment rate is rising, now at 4.0% compared to the expected 3.9%. What’s going on?

Payroll figures, which track the number of jobs added or lost, often get revised later as more complete data comes in. The initial excitement over a high payroll number can fade once these revisions show a clearer picture.

Payroll Survey vs. Household Survey 📊

Understanding the differences between the Payroll Survey and the Household Survey is crucial to interpreting the latest employment data accurately. While both surveys are conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), they serve distinct purposes and often yield different results. Essentially, while the payroll numbers paint a picture of a booming job market, the reality is more nuanced, with the actual job landscape aligning with the uptick in unemployment.

Central Banks are Pivoting ↩️

Three major central banks—the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Canada, and the Swiss National Bank—are now pivoting their monetary policies. Conversely, the Fed has been cautious, waiting for consistent signs that inflation is under control and the economy can handle lower interest rates without overheating.

*Source Shoutout* A huge thank you to our friends at Mortly.com for making our lives easier and providing this market content that we've adapted for our friends and clients.

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