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Well it’s that melancholy time of the year for me and probably many others. Many believe that “only” 3000 people died that day. However there have been hundreds if not thousands more deaths from that day that continue to haunt us. The long term effects of the toxic air and emotional issues have caused many bad things. Suicides among cops that worked at ground zero is double the general population. The rate of cancers among first responders is nearly triple the general population. When I say “I will never forget” it means all the lives that were lost that day and the continuing deaths of Cops, fireman, ems, construction workers and anyone who helped out at the pile. Those are what I will never forget. That day doesn’t even seem real to me sometimes and I suppose that’s good. But often I get hit with survivors guilt, sadness over friends passing due to 9/11. So I do drive you the next two weeks just realize I may not be my happy go lucky self. But I will be fine. I’m unstoppable. Prayers to all who have suffered, lost loved ones, or generally feel sick every year the anniversary comes around. Live life to the fullest because it can end in an instant. God bless you all and God Bless America.

Tropical Thoughts:

1. Area over the Yucatan will likely develop over the next few days. If it gets named, it will become Francine.

2. No threat to Florida. Heavy rains for Texas and Louisiana. While it looks more like a rain event, we'll keep an eye on it for our friends on the other side of the Gulf.

3. Area in the Atlantic looks like it should stay East of the U.S. Obviously not a guarantee this early on, bit pretty confident in this.

4. Nothing threatening Florida anytime soon. Let's keep it simple. Rule #7.

TROPICS | Still watching 4 areas in the Atlantic. None are a threat to Florida right now. That system off the east coast will bring rain/wind to Nova Scotia this weekend. We'll continue to watch these through to the weekend but currently nothing to worry about!

Perfect example of how looks can be deceiving. It LOOKS active in this map...it's not. Just a buncha blobs that won't do much. Although I still think over the next 10 days slow development in the SW Gulf could occur. Otherwise, our stretch of ***** weather continues. (Catering to the superstitious folk this am) 🤣

Rainfall the next 7 days. Uncle?

"Yellow is the new Orange"

1. Area we've been watching down from 40% to 30%. Orange to yellow.

2. In spite of a trio of yellow blobs, this has been the quietest stretch of tropical weather from mid August to early September since 1968.

3. Regardless of whether or not we see any hurricanes threaten the Gulf coast again this season, it's clearly been a complete disaster for those forecasting a hyperactive or record breaking season. I, for one, am thankful they were wrong. But remember, it only takes 1 to make it a bad season if it strikes where you live.

4. While most of the stories focused on La Nina and record warm water temperatures, we've said since the beginning there are so many other factors that come in to play. It's just not so simple trying to boil it down to 1 or 2 specifics. Saharan Dust, Atlantic Nina, unusually active African rainy season and even the Tonga volcano could all be partially responsible. Truth is, we might not ever know. Just another reason, in my opinion, long range hurricane forecasts are often pretty useless.

5. Lots more season to go. We'll be here for you 24/7.

TROPICS | Good news here. That system we've been watching entering the Caribbean today now has a LOWER chance of developing. Much of the model data keeps it heading west into the southern Gulf with some of the models suggesting it may not even develop at all. Things could of course change, so we'll continue to track it, 24/7.

TROPICS | The NHC is monitoring 3 systems in the Atlantic. The only one we're watching for Florida is the orange area that will eventually move into the Caribbean next week. Right now, models are trending west with this more than north into the Gulf in the long term. We'll know more by mid week next week, but right now, we're fine. We'll keep you posted!

"Orange Blob" back up to 50%. It seems pretty likely this will just slowly go through the Caribbean as a disorganized system. If it's able to make it to the Gulf, it could really take off. Models will continue to be ALL OVER THE PLACE with track. GFS has gone from Florida to Texas to Mexico with it the past 24 hours. Track will be impossible to forecast until midweek next week. Until then, have a GREAT holiday weekend. Check in from time to time to get updates in case something changes.

NEW | NHC now increasing chances for development east of the islands to 40% over the next week. Looks like low pressure may develop in this region over the weekend or early next week. This system would track general WNW into the Caribbean next week.

I'm sitting in traffic and this red car next to me the guy is driving and snorting coke off of his hand in full view. I've seen it all.🤦‍♂️

Ernesto forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday. As the Tropical Storm moves away from the USVI and Puerto Rico, it will get stronger. Could become a Cat 3 hurricane later in the week. The track takes it very close to Bermuda on Saturday. (Nothing behind this one for awhile)

PTC 5 | Here's the 11 pm advisory from the NHC. Tropical Storm Watches are now up for the US and British Virgin Islands. Puerto Rico will likely be put under a watch tomorrow. PTC 5 will strengthen into Tropical Storm Ernesto tomorrow. The forecast shows it will become a hurricane close to or just north of Puerto Rico.

Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) 5 has developed. Remember, it's a PTC because it's does not have a well defined core to be classified as a depression, but is close enough to land (and possible landfall) that watches need to be issued along with a track. The forecast is for slow strengthening into Tropical Storm Ernesto by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm watches are now up for a portion of the northern Lesser Antilles. A sharp turn to the north is forecast near Puerto Rico.

Night owl? Tonight's the night for the peak of what is usually the best meteor shower of the year. Direction to look? Up. 📸 The Old Farmers Almanac

No changes to this morning's tropical outlook from the NHC other than to bump the 2 day development chance to 70%. All interests in the northern Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands need to monitor this system closely as it could get very close to or even landfall in the islands by mid week. After that, a turn north is expected. We'll let you know if that changes.

We ALL know models will change. It's always a slippery slope posting stuff a week out, yet, if you don't see it here, you'll see it elsewhere. So, at least some context. Euro ensemble (50ish different runs of same model tweaking parameters slightly to get varying solutions) definitely trending East. Why? Trough digs in along the East coast next week and "coaxes" Ernesto offshore. Just remember, "Weaker West-Stronger North) That's today's thinking. Let's see how things look throughout the weekend and next week.