Rohan Gunaratna

Making memories on the last day of the 2024 Chinese New Year! 🐉

This year, the Chinese New Year began on February 10th and continued for 15 days, with the Lantern Festival marking the end of the celebrations.

Wishing everyone a beautiful and productive life!

The Oldest Wound in Global Terrorism

To unveil root causes, we need to delve into the intricate relationship between the Israel-Palestine conflict and global terrorism. From Al-Qaeda to ISIS to Hamas, many terror operations from the Middle East region find their roots in Israeli occupation and Palestinian grievances.

While combating terrorism is crucial, addressing these grievances and ensuring justice is equally imperative. Both areas need to be addressed simultaneously.

Watch video:

The Oldest Wound in Global Terrorism To unveil root causes, we need to delve into the intricate relationship between the Israel-Palestine conflict and global terrorism. From Al-Qaeda to ISIS to ...

Minister says Afghan commandos described 'horrific' SAS

Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-68358760

The British SAS are among the best special forces in the world. To raise a special warrior, it takes years of training, mentoring, guidance and supervision. The British SAS has assisted and advised governments worldwide on the creation and operation of special operations forces. Most special forces worldwide look up to the British SAS as the gold standard when it comes to hostage rescue and anti-hijack missions, and other capabilities that protect humanity from catastrophe.

Today, the special forces are vital to protect state and society. The special warriors operate against all odds, especially when civilians are being used as human shields by terrorists. As such, civilian death are not uncommon in counter terrorism operations. There can be isolated atrocities by any military force including by highly trained and specialised forces. They constantly and consistently preserve human life unlike the terrorists that deliberately harm civilians. As institutions, the British, Australian and New Zealand SAS have always protected humanity. They have mounted countless operations to rescue civilians from terrorists and trained other elite forces to follow their spirit. It is ridiculous for anyone including a British politician to accuse the without evidence.

In the age of fake news and denial of truth, governments should investigate all such allegations. There are protocols and procedures for scrutinising military forces. However, if anyone is complicit in deliberately fabricating and knowingly disseminating fake information, that person should be investigated. In an age of online falsehoods and manipulations, if anyone is found guilty, including a minister, he or she should be be held accountable.

Documentary

BBC Panorama: SAS Death Squads Exposed: A British War Crime?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0h9TnGyxyKc

BBC News

BBC Panorama: SAS Death Squads Exposed: A British War Crime? BBC Panorama: SAS Death Squads Exposed: A British War Crime?British special forces killed hundreds of people on night raids in Afghanistan. The SAS say they ...

To all my Italian colleagues interested in reading about the most recent developments of jihadist groups in the Middle East in the framework of the current war, this piece by my colleague Francesco Conti and myself highlights some of the latest security risks for western countries.

Published by Formiche

I rischi per l’Italia del jihadismo post 7 ottobre. Scrivono Gunaratna e Conti - Formiche.net Tra vecchie e nuove conoscenze terroristiche spuntano le Brigate al-Furqan che minacciano il Mediterraneo. L’analisi di Gunaratna e Conti

My colleague and researcher on jihadist terrorism and a lecturer at the University of Bologna, Francesco Conti and I authored the following paper: "The rise of Hamas: From regional to worldwide implications".

Published by the NATO College Foundation, it deals with the geopolitical implication of the Hamas war on the global scenario, including the most recent operational developments and the use of drones by Iranian sponsored militias.

To read the full paper, visit:https://www.natofoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/NDCF-Paper-Gunaratna-Conti-The-Rise-of-Hamas-from-regional-to-world-wide-implications.pdf

University of Bologna

https://www.natofoundation.org/

Nato Foundation - Nato Defense College Foundation SEARCH Our mission is “to promote the culture of stability and well-being in the North Atlantic area” and in Partner nations.The principles stated in the Preamble to the Washington Treaty of 1949 are our heritage. Shaping Security Horizons Research – Insight – Analyses – Perspectives Strat...

Today, we have multiple conflicts happening across the globe. Some of these conflicts are initiated by non-state actors and others are initiated by state actors. The groups that kill, maim and injure civilians are terrorist groups. There should be no debate over ‘who is a terrorist’. 9/11 by Al Qaeda was a terrorist attack, Oct 7 attack by Hamas was a terrorist attack, Easter Sunday massacre by the Islamic State was a terrorist attack.

In this post, I wish to help clarify that by providing a framework to understand the difference between a privileged combatant (legally) vs a terrorist.

To do this, we start by acknowledging that we define “terrorism” by the act rather than the perpetrator or the nature of the cause.

Therefore, we can define terrorism first and foremost as a crime. Crimes like murder or kidnapping can be acts of terrorism provided they are:

1. Committed with a political objective,
2. They deliberately target civilians or non-combatants and commit actions such as taking hostages,
3. And there is a separation of the target of the crime and the target of the intended psychological effect.

All terrorists are politically motivated. They have ulterior political objectives. They also deliberately and willfully target, unarmed, non-combatants. Targeting civilians is a violation of the rules of governing armed conflict.

Finally, all terrorists commit acts with a psychological intent. They intend to create fear, alarm, or gain concessions in some form from a target audience. They do so by targeting their attacks against a different group. Thus, the target of the actual attack is different than the target of the intended psychological effect.

Similarly, if a state actor deliberately targets civilians, it is a war crime.

I hope this helps you draw the distinction between who a terrorist is compared to other types of combatants. Although this won’t end any debates out there, it is a great starting point for discussion.

Do you think I have defined terrorism well in this post? Let me know in the comments.

On Valentines Day, Sri Lanka hit a recorded high number of tourist arrivals. Feb 14, 2024 marked 9,443 tourists visiting Sri Lanka!

Sri Lanka received 115,328 arrivals in the first 15 days of February 2024. Both excellent service and security are paramount to sustain tourist arrivals, vital for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery and prosperity.

Sri Lanka Tourism - Serendipitous Encounters

The origins of jihad in Sri Lanka by Muslims was in response to the series of massacres waged by the terrorist movement, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). In my book “Sri Lanka’s Easter Sunday Massacre - Lessons for the International Community” published by Penguin , I have discussed the impact of this LTTE massacre in shaping the thinking of the Islamic State leader Zahran and his followers in Kattankudy.

After forcefully expelling 81,000 Muslims from Sri Lanka’s north in October 1990, the LTTE embarked on a program to ethnically cleanse members of these two communities. Thereafter, the LTTE launched a series of massacres to create a mono-ethnic Tamil state in the north and east. The LTTE terrorists systematically killed, maimed and injured Sinhalese and Muslim civilians living in Sri Lanka’s north and east. The worst massacre was 147 eastern Muslims killed at prayer time inside two mosques in Kattankudy on August 3, 1990.

Referring to this brutal event, my colleague Dr A.R.M. Imtiyaz and Amjad Mohamed Saleem write “Such incidents further generated Muslim ethno-religious nationalism and aided the SLMC to convert Muslim grievances to electoral gains. The general election victories of 1994, 2000, and 2004 and the provincial council elections in 1993 proved that the SLMC’s election campaigns employing ethno-religious Muslim nationalism coupled with anti-Tamil/Tamil Tiger rhetoric repeatedly engendered the support of the Muslims.

SLMC leader Mohammed Hussain Mohammed Ashraff, “tactfully utilized the threats of the Tamil Tigers with religious rhetoric for electoral gains”, when he said, “If the LTTE is killing us, if the LTTE is leaving us out of our homes, simply because we happen to be Muslims, simply because we say “La ilaha illallahu, Mammmdur-Rasoolullah” because of our belief in Allah and Prophet Muhammed (peace be upon him) . . . if that is the only reason, it is the commandment of the Holy Quran that we should declare Jihad against them and kill every LTTEr. We shall now intend to slaughter every LTTEr, including Mr. Prabhakaran. In a personal note, I will be the happiest if I can die in battle at the time of slitting the neck of this bloody Prabhakaran.”

To protect the Muslims from the LTTE onslaught, the Muslims under threat gathered to fight back. Did those who join in the fight embrace ideologies that lingered to re-emerge in the next generation?

https://journals.sagepub.com/eprint/PPX7MY9AXIIU2N599YKH/full

Islamic Faith as an Ethnic Identity Marker: Overview of Sri Lanka Muslim Identity Formation, Politicization, and Violence - A.R.M. Imtiyaz, Amjad Mohamed-Saleem, 2024 Since the late-19th century, for political expediency, the Sri Lankan Muslims have used Islam as a marker of identity difference which has suffered due to the t...

We need to examine how Israel's forceful response to the October 7th, 2023, Hamas attack has sparked a dangerous cycle of radicalization worldwide.

What is ‘reciprocal radicalization’, and how does it unfold on a global scale? Join me as we dissect these dynamics, shedding light on the interconnected nature of extremism and its consequences.

Video: https://youtu.be/WGt5dVHtBBU

Israel's response is creating more radicalization! We need to examine how Israel's forceful response to the October 7th, 2023, Hamas attack has sparked a dangerous cycle of radicalization worldwide. What is ‘...

Recently someone asked me what my thoughts on the Online Safety Bill, are. This is what I think:

The Online Safety Bill of Sri Lanka is consistent with similar legislation crafted overseas. It acts as a deterrence against those who fabricate online falsehoods and manipulations. The Online Safety Bill will also empower the government to act against those who deliberately disseminate fake news. If Sri Lanka is to develop as a first world nation, it should develop both a policy and legal framework to discipline its citizens. If citizens are not guided and educated formally and informally, segments with personal and political motives will ruin Sri Lanka with fake news. Unless the government acts decisively to manage the information domain, Sri Lanka will produce a generation of citizens that deny the truth and believe in fake news. There are two instances, I'd like to highlight.

Example one:

A minority of Tamils radicalised by the LTTE advocate a separate state by promoting the idea that there was a “genocide” in Sri Lanka. As in any war, like in Afghanistan and Iraq, there were isolated atrocities. However, there was never a systematic campaign to kill, maim or injure Tamil civilians. In fact, more than 50% of the Tamils lived in Southern Sri Lanka. In contrast, the LTTE conducted a systematic campaign of ethnocide against Sinhalese and Muslims living in Sri Lanka’s north and east.

Example two:

The radicalised Muslims promoted a campaign that the Easter Sunday attack was staged by RAW, CIA, MOSSAD and by the Sri Lankan intelligence. Three fact-finding reports and international law enforcement authorities have identified the Salafi Wahhabi leaders Zahran Hashim and Noufer as the masterminds of the massacre. The investigators of INTERPOL, Australian Federal Police, New Scotland Yard and the Federal Bureau of Investigations visited the attack sites in Sri Lanka, examined the evidence and interviewed the perpetrators and their supporters. The US Department of Justice has indicted the perpetrators too. When there is such overwhelming evidence, due to online propaganda by parties with vested interests, a significant proportion of the Sri Lankans falsely accuse both domestic and foreign intelligence services for this heinous attack. Today, 53% of the Sri Lankans still harbour doubts about the religious fanatics that staged the attack.

As such, it is imperative for government to investigate anyone deliberately manufacturing and purposely disseminating online falsehoods. The Online Safety Bill is a must for Sri Lanka.

In my previous post, I discussed a little bit about what hierarchical vs network organizations are. Today we look at a specific advantage that network organizations have: “Swarming”.

Swarming is a relatively new mode of combat that is used primarily by network actors. It is when multiple dispersed nodes of a network organization converge on a target from multiple directions to maintain sustained pulsing of force or fire.

This kind of attack, once begun will allow network actors to rapidly converge onto their target, stealthily, then just as quickly disperse and regroup for the next pulse.

This can be quite devastating for a hierarchical organization to sustain over longer periods. Today we can see this type of conflict being used by various terrorist outfits like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Ansarullah against their nemesis, Israel.

The only reason Israel can maintain itself so far is its superior military power and the support of the US and other Western nations.

Swarm networks have strong advantages over traditional hierarchical models. Thus, it is important to fight fire with fire and develop equally effective counter-terror networks to combat terror networks.

Do you think that the current conflict in the middle east between Israel and Hamas et al can be categorized as “swarming”? Let me know what you think in the comments!

I was delighted to attend the 10th anniversary Symposium of the The International Institute for Justice and the Rule of Law (IIJ) titled, “Does the Rule of Law Really Matter to Global Security?” at the University of Malta, Valletta Campus.

The symposium fostered open dialogue on the intricate landscape of counter-terrorism policy, encouraging a candid exchange of ideas. The genesis of IIJ can be traced back to the June 2012 Ministerial meeting of the Global Counterterrorism Forum (GCTF) when its ministers and senior officials announced strong support for the establishment of a key platform to deliver innovative and sustainable training to implement the counterterrorism-related, rule of law-based good practices being developed by international and regional fora.

G8 leaders welcomed the IIJ in their statement at the June 2013 G8 Summit. Over the past year, a range of governments and international, regional, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have been collaborating on developing the IIJ’s mandate, mission, structure, legal foundation, and curriculum. Through its capacity building programs and a far reaching alumni network, IIJ has lived up to the vision and mission of it’s patrons and mentors. I was delighted to meet both serving and former IIJ staff whose stellar service has contributed to global security and stability. Malta is a pillar of strength and its leaders are stalwarts in the remarkable journey of IIJ.

Congratulations to Amb. Ravinatha Aryasingha for helming Sri Lanka’s Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute of International Relations and Strategic Studies!!

Working with the Foreign Minister Mohamed Ali Sabry, Ambassador Ariyasinghe’s leadership and indomitable spirit shaped the LKI to a leading think tank in the Indo-Pacific.

His experience and expertise as foreign secretary and ambassador has made the LKI policy briefs invaluable. I especially commend the policy brief by an American Fulbright scholar Keerthi Martyn who wrote on the key takeaways in “Strengthening Engagement in U.S.-Sri Lanka Relations.”

The briefs are a must read for those who want to understand Sri Lanka, the Indo-Pacific, and the world.

This is the best interview so far on the future of Ukraine and the security of Europe. Vladimir Putin’s interview answers Tucker Carlson’s profound question - Will Russia’s war in Ukraine bring the world to the brink of a global war? Are we at the brink of a global war!

Russia is unlikely to invade Poland or Latvia. However, Russia will fight for its interests in Ukraine! Unless there is global leadership, the War in Ukraine is likely to expand to Europe and spill over to other regions of the world.

Similarly, the War in Gaza is likely to expand to the rest of the Middle East and spill over to other regions of the world. For global stability and security, world leaders should meet, and prevent and preempt further escalation.

https://youtu.be/fOCWBhuDdDo

Tucker Carlson Tonight

Exclusive: Tucker Carlson Interviews Vladimir Putin Watch Tucker's immediate reaction to the interview here: https://bit.ly/3SxeZBYTucker interviews Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia. February 6th, 2024.Follow ...

The International Institute for Justice and the Rule of Law (IIJ) led by its Executive Secretary Steven Hill provided leadership when we marked its 10th anniversary. In admiration of his far reaching vision and indomitable spirit, I presented Secretary Hill with two volumes, “Religious Peace - A Precious Treasure” and “Religions and Common Space - Promoting Religious Space” on February 1, 2024.

Secretary Hill served as the Director for Global Criminal Justice and Multilateral Affairs at the National Security Council at the White House in Washington and prior to that served as the chief legal advisor to the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Brussels. Helmed by capable leaders since its formation, the IIJ was led by Robert Strang and Thomas Wuchte before Secretary Hill.

One of greatest institutions of the early 21st century, IIJ was created to provide rule of law-based training to lawmakers, police, prosecutors, judges, corrections officials, and other justice sector stakeholders on how to address terrorism and related transnational criminal activities within a rule of law framework.

In keeping with its original mission, the IIJ has strengthened the criminal justice systems and built regional judicial, police and other criminal justice practitioner networks to promote justice, security, and human rights. With the extant and emerging challenges facing North, West, and East Africa, and the Levant and Yemen in the Middle East, the IIJ’s role to enhance their capacities and capabilities should be steadfastly supported.

As member of the Advisory Board of the The International Institute for Justice and the Rule of Law (IIJ), I was invited by President of Malta His Excellency Dr George Vella to attend the 10 year anniversary celebrations at the Verdala Palace on February 2, 2024.

Built in 1586 by Grand Master Hugues Loubenx de Verdalle (1582- 1595), Verdala Palace is one of the three palaces of the Grand Masters in Malta, the others being Valletta, the office of the President and San Anton, the residence of the President.

I pay a tribute to leaders from the east and the west who came together to establish and operate IIJ. I met with friends and colleagues including our host Dr Vella and the First Lady of Malta. A tower of strength, the First Lady knew my classmate Brigitte Gauci Borda who founded Malta’s dance school, Brigitte Gauci Borda School of Dance.

An exceptionally well read world leader, Dr Vella served as foreign minister during the establishment of IIJ. Located where Europe meets with the Middle East and Africa, its strategic position will enable IIJ to work with a range of partners to stem the tide of extremism and terrorism emanating from Africa, an emerging epicentre of global threat.

Rohan Gunaratna

Ever wondered why the West continues to support Israel, in the Israel-Hamas conflict? Even while 153 out of 193 states in the United Nations General Assembly and two-thirds of Americans support a cease-fire, the American leadership continues to support Israel’s offensive against not just Hamas but the Palestinian civilians. Why?

This is a complex question and includes the intricacies of geopolitical dynamics and foreign policy. What actions by Hamas make Western support challenging? Join me as we navigate through these critical issues, providing insights and context that shape the ongoing dialogue.

Video: https://youtu.be/egbVO_BK9zg

Why is the West continuing to support Israel Ever wondered why the West continues to support Israel, in the Israel-Hamas conflict? Even while 153 out of 193 states in the United Nations General Assembly...

“The Path to October 7: How Iran Built Up and Managed a Palestinian ‘Axis of Resistance’” by Phillip Smyth published by the Combating Terrorism Center at United States Military Academy at West Point - where I served as Senior Fellow - is one of the best articles on a regional threat that is escalating and expanding into a global threat.

The Path to October 7: How Iran Built Up and Managed a Palestinian ‘Axis of Resistance’ – Combating Terrorism Center at West Point Abstract: Since October 7, in the wake of the “al-Aqsa Flood” terrorist attacks by Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and other Palestinian factions from across the ideological spectrum, Iran’s aid to and strategic management of these groups has taken on a new level of relevance. The m**h...

Happy 76th Independence Day, Sri Lanka!

Independence Day is a moment of reflection for all nations to do better for their citizens and for humanity. To build a better Sri Lanka, all communities should work together to build that One Sri Lanka.

May this special day be a celebration and a drive towards unity, progress, and the enduring spirit of this beautiful nation. Wishing all Sri Lankans peace, prosperity, and a future filled with accomplishments.

- Rohan Gunaratna

Governments today are structured as hierarchies, that is they have a vertical direction of communication. Networks, on the other hand have more lateral direction of communication. Networks are far more flexible and adaptive and utilize the talents of all organization members.

There are mainly 3 types of networks:

1. Chain Network
This type is where people, goods, or information move along a line of separated contacts.

2. Star or Hub Network
This is where a set of actors is tied to a central actor, and all communications go through the central actor.

3. All-Channel Network
This is a highly connected mesh of small, militant actors where every actor is connected to each other.

Networks are faster, more adaptable, and more flexible. They can run circles around typical hierarchical organizations as evidenced by the numerous terror attacks globally that seemingly happened right under the noses of powerful or well-equipped states.

He who masters networks masters the war table. The key challenge is to thoughtfully and expertly connect networked structures to our existing hierarchical structures.

We see a lot of progress on this through inter-agency collaboration in some developed country governments. But around the globe, there is much more work to be done.

I hope you found this useful and interesting. Comment below how you think governments can incorporate more network structures to combat terrorists or other nefarious actors.

Today, the public of India have realised the grave damage fake news has done to its country. Those who champion democracy and freedom should understand that social media should be regulated, the executives of tech companies should be held accountable if they are complacent or complicit, and those who fabricate and knowingly disseminate fake news should be investigated.

Before online falsehoods and manipulations emerged as the preeminent threat to Indian national interests, the Indian government should have acted. Every government should identify threats and address them proactively to mitigate the harm to the state and to society. India has failed to address this threat.

Without law and order in the digital space, online falsehoods and manipulations is producing an ignorant generation where politicians can do what is needed to remain in power.

Neighbouring Sri Lanka is no different to India. In a recent poll, 53% of Sri Lankans did not believe that the Easter Sunday attack of 2019 was staged by religious fanatics. Rather than address religious fanaticism, radical Muslim politicians working with a segment of the political opposition misguided the community for personal and political advantage.

Immediately after the Easter Sunday attack, international law enforcement authorities and security agencies arrived in Sri Lanka. This included the INTERPOL, FBI, Australian Federal Police and New Scotland Yard teams that visited the attack sites, examined the electronics and interviewed the suspects. Their reporting established that Salafi-Wahhabi leader Zahran Hashim was responsible for the barbaric attack along with the ideologue Noufer that radicalised the perpetrators and supporters.

Furthermore, three fact-finding reports on the attack identified what should be done to prevent the next attack. Nonetheless, opposition politicians and those influenced by fake news falsely accused Sri Lankan intelligence, Indian RAW, the CIA and other government agencies that fight day and night to secure their nations. A Sri Lankan Muslim Parlimentarian even said that Zahran was a MOSSAD agent.

Since the attack, I have shared with three governments legislation developed by other countries to fight fake news. I also worked with the Ministry of Justice, the Legal Draftsman’s Department and other entities to help develop the legal and a policy framework. Amidst challenges, the Sri Lankan parliament recently passed the Online Safety Bill.

Understanding the threat of fake news is the first step in a series of measures to counter this surging threat. Creating dedicated capabilities to rebut fake news is a second step. Investigating and prosecuting those manufacturing and intentionally spreading fake news is the third step. Misinformation, disinformation and malinformation is the No. 1 national and international security threat today.

Image: Statista

to 2014 when the team at ICPVTR (International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research) together with the NTU School of Computer Engineering won the best paper award at the IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics in Atlanta, Georgia.

The paper conceptualised new software tools for gathering and analysing terrorism data off the internet.
https://www.rsis.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/terrorism-informatics.pdf Nanyang Technological University, Singapore

In this video, I address critical questions surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict. Who are the key players in this proxy war, and how might it escalate into a global conflict? How can we mitigate violence and protect civilians caught in the crossfire? Should Israel be held accountable for the significant civilian casualties, and what about Hamas holding hostages?

I explore the complexities of labeling Hamas as a terrorist organization and discuss the challenges of dismissing this label. Join me as we delve into these pressing issues and ponder the international community's role in responding to this multifaceted conflict.

Watch the full video for insights into the broader dynamics and potential pathways to resolution. 🌐🕊

Link: https://youtu.be/BW0hLYXCNIs

The Other Players in the Israel-Hamas Conflict Unveiling the Layers: In this video, I address critical questions surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict. Who are the key players in this proxy war, and how m...