Eagle and Bear Economist

Workers With The Most Flexibility Rate Culture Highest, Employers Still Hire For Degrees And More via Forbes

Workers With The Most Flexibility Rate Culture Highest, Employers Still Hire For Degrees And More The published version of Forbes' Future of Work newsletter delivers the latest news for chief human resources officers and other talent managers on disruptive technologies, managing the workforce and trends in the remote work debate to your inbox every Monday.

More Than Half of Recent 4-Year College Grads Underemployed

"A new report found that many recent graduates don’t land jobs that require a degree."

https://www.insidehighered.com/news/students/academics/2024/02/22/more-half-recent-four-year-college-grads-underemployed via Inside Higher Ed

More than half of recent four-year college grads underemployed A new report found that many recent graduates don’t land jobs that require a degree.

What caught my eye in February: Working from home and productivity, central bank independence, and much more…

What caught my eye in February: Working from home and productivity, central bank independence, and much more… "Investors increasingly focus on the clarity of WFH policies as a sign of a well-run company."

How to save HR from itself Human resources professionals are uniquely maligned. But it doesn’t have to be this way

Are We in a Productivity Boom? For Clues, Look to 1994. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/21/business/economy/economy-productivity-increase.html?smid=tw-share

Interesting piece by Jeanna Smialek

Are We in a Productivity Boom? For Clues, Look to 1994. Thirty years ago, the U.S. entered an era of productivity gains that enabled healthy growth. Experts are asking if it could happen again.

Brazil’s Gross Debt Set to Increase to 77.7% of GDP This Year

https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazils-gross-debt-set-to-increase-to-77-7-of-gdp-this-year/

via

Brazil's Gross Debt Set to Increase to 77.7% of GDP This Year Brazil's gross debt is expected to climb to 77.7% of GDP this year, an increase from last year's 77.4%, with projections of a further rise.

The ‘Soft Landing’ Skeptics Are Still Out There

"While a rising number of economists point to a coming soft landing for the US economy, doubters remain. One of them is Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank’s global head of economics and thematic research. “The hard landing scenario probability is probably higher than the market expects,” he tells Merryn Somerset Webb on this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money."

The ‘Soft Landing’ Skeptics Are Still Out There Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank’s global head of economics and thematic research, tells Merryn Talks Money that a US downturn may still be on the way.

China Home Prices Slide, Increasing Pressure on Beijing

China Home Prices Slide, Increasing Pressure on Beijing A prolonged fall in home prices shows the huge task facing policymakers, who have so far proved unable to turn the market around.

What Can AI Offer Teachers? A year after generative AI shocked the education world, the second annual AI+Education Summit reflected on new tools and research for classrooms.

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"Evergrande’s rapid rise was enabled by its aggressive borrowing and unconventional fundraising. Its aggressive use of leverage made it the world’s most indebted real estate developer," writes Zongyuan Zoe Liu.

https://on.cfr.org/3I4Lt1k

Expectations for reductions have significantly cooled, but capital markets project the European Central Bank to act first and more aggressively throughout the year

Who will cut interest rates first: the Fed or the ECB? Expectations for reductions have significantly cooled, but capital markets project the European Central Bank to act first and more aggressively throughout the year

Nvidia Surges After AI Boom Shows No Signs of Letting Up

Nvidia Surges After AI Sales Boom Shows No Signs of Letting Up Nvidia Corp. surged in late trading after delivering another eye-popping sales forecast, adding fresh momentum to a stock rally that already made it the world’s most valuable chipmaker.

Fed Minutes Show Unease Over Premature Cuts
https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-minutes-jan-2024-rate-cuts-25f72187 via The Wall Street Journal

Fed Minutes Show Unease Over Premature Cuts Only two officials highlighted the risks of keeping rates too high for too long at last month’s policy meeting.

The People’s Bank of China lowered the five-year loan prime rate, a mortgage benchmark, by 25 basis points on Tuesday to 3.95% from 4.2%.

China rate cut shows lack of options for boosting economy Latest monetary easing move tries to spark recovery in housing market

The economic weakness of China and decoupling are clearly visible in foreign direct investment data:

Foreign direct investment in China falls to 30-year low https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Foreign-direct-investment-in-China-falls-to-30-year-low via Nikkei Asia

Foreign direct investment in China falls to 30-year low Companies spooked by detentions for alleged spying and U.S. sanctions

Brazil’s Agribusiness Exports Rise 14.8% in January

https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazils-agribusiness-exports-rise-14-8-in-january/ via The Rio Times

Brazil's Agribusiness Exports Rise 14.8% in January The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock announced on Friday that Brazil's farming exports experienced a 14.8% growth in January.

In the world of small business, financial stability is the cornerstone of success. To ensure the longevity and resilience of your enterprise, it’s crucial to create a robust financial safety net. This article will guide you through essential steps to safeguard your small business’s financial future.

Guest post by Mallory Edens, entrepreneur and business writer

Fortifying Financial Resilience: A Blueprint for Small Business Success In the world of small business, financial stability is the cornerstone of success.

What caught my eye: Work from home policies, central bank digital currencies, the U.S. economy, and much more

An interesting article in Fast Company:“Investors increasingly focus on the clarity of WFH policies as a sign of a well-run company."

Read more:

https://eagle-economist.com/2024/02/18/what-caught-my-eye-work-from-home-policies-central-bank-digital-currencies-economic-performance-in-the-united-states-and-much-more/

What caught my eye: Work from home policies, central bank digital currencies, economic performance in the United States, and much more… "Investors increasingly focus on the clarity of WFH policies as a sign of a well-run company."

The German economy is not doing well. After a decline in economic performance in the final quarter of 2023, there is little hope that the downturn could have been halted.

https://eagle-economist.com/2024/02/18/the-german-economy-is-still-weak/

The German economy is still weak The German economy is not doing well.

"Investors increasingly focus on the clarity of WFH policies as a sign of a well-run company. A clear and well-communicated WFH policy shows a management that understands modern work needs and is proactive in creating a good work environment."

Your WFH policy is becoming investors’ latest way to predict company success WFH policies are an investor's predictive metric for success.

Japan's GDP unexpectedly shrinks for second straight quarter:
Asia's second-biggest economy contracts 0.4% in October-December period

Japan's GDP unexpectedly shrinks for second straight quarter Asia's second-biggest economy contracts 0.4% in October-December period

The Brutal Reality of Plunging Office Values Is Here

The Brutal Reality of Plunging Office Values Is Here Commercial-property deals in the US are starting to pick up — at deep discounts that are forcing lenders around the world to brace for souring loans.

Investors scale back bets of May rate cut on strong US inflation figures

https://www.ft.com/content/de014155-5d85-4f45-9bcf-46f1619ceef9 via Financial Times

Investors scale back bets of May rate cut on strong US inflation figures Resilience in price pressures comes as Federal Reserve considers when to begin cutting rates

What caught my eye: The future of work, the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, EU public debt, and much more…

Read more here:

https://eagle-economist.com/2024/02/10/what-caught-my-eye-the-future-of-work-the-failure-of-silicon-valley-bank-eu-public-debt-and-much-more/

What caught my eye: The future of work, the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, EU public debt, and much more… "Even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the way we worked and the skills we needed to succeed in our respective fields was shifting."

Fortifying Financial Resilience: A Blueprint for Small Business Success

In the world of small business, financial stability is the cornerstone of success. To ensure the longevity and resilience of your enterprise, it’s crucial to create a robust financial safety net.

Guest post by Mallory Edens, entrepreneur and business writer, AmericaBizMove.com.

Read more here:

https://eagle-economist.com/2024/02/09/fortifying-financial-resilience-a-blueprint-for-small-business-success/

Fortifying Financial Resilience: A Blueprint for Small Business Success In the world of small business, financial stability is the cornerstone of success.

Hybrid work is here to stay, but office attendance varies by industry. In large firms in the knowledge economy—like professional services, information, and finance industries—employees tend to go to the office fewer days per week.

Explore these insights from the McKinsey Global Institute ➡ mck.co/RE2023

That's a surprise: Mexico’s economy slowed more than forecast in the fourth quarter

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/mexico-s-economy-slowed-more-than-expected-in-the-fourth-quarter?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter via Bloomberg

Mexico’s Economy Slowed More Than Expected in the Fourth Quarter Mexico’s economy slowed more than forecast in the fourth quarter on waning exports and household consumption, fueling bets the nation’s central bank will start interest rate cuts in coming months.

More bad news for the German economy: Exports decreased by 4.6 % in December 2023 (compared to November). The decline in imports was 6.7%.
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2024/02/PE24_044_51.html

“The reality is that, with these pressures, it’s going to be very difficult to keep inflation contained unless productivity growth remains strong.”

Why central banks are reluctant to declare victory over inflation https://www.ft.com/content/c178324b-ee20-4256-9f6c-6c605f0d5b44 via Financial Times

Why central banks are reluctant to declare victory over inflation Policymakers had begun laying the ground for interest rate cuts, but strong US labour data shows pressure on prices has not yet abated