Regency FX

The Pound Comes Off The Boil

The Pound looks to have taken a slight hit on technical trading.

After pushing recent highs against the Dollar and the Euro, it could be argued there was some technical resistance.

Certainly the short term triple top versus the Euro might indicate that.

Today sees manufacturing purchasing managers indices being reported.

This demonstrates the strength of one of the most important sectors as a bellwether of the global economy.

The median reading is 50, so a number above is positive and vice versa.

The Eurozone is expected to show a reading lower than 50, and the UK is expected to be above 50, so GBP/EUR could be volatile today.

The early hours of tomorrow continue to see UK centric news with the BRC like for like retail sales numbers being reported just after midnight.

Business news continues to report on the Governments proposed increase on the windfall tax against energy companies.

Economic calendar

EUR: 09:00 Manufacturing PMI

UK: 09:30 Manufacturing PMI

UK: Tuesday 00:01 BRC Like for Like Retail Sales

GBP/EUR Trying For Year Highs

The Pound has made a couple of attempts to break to year highs versus the Euro.

With European consumer confidence and German inflation data out later, today could be the day to break out or fall back.

Germany is expected to report 2.1% annualised growth.

Eyes will then turn to the Dollar with US GDP numbers out.

2.8% quarterly growth is expected.

So it's a big 24 hours of news for currency markets that travels into the early hours of tomorrow with Japanese inflation and Australian retail sales.

However, for those that are risk averse, it could be the Eurozone inflation number out after breakfast tomorrow that makes the decision on exchanging Euros.

Analysts are predicting annualised growth of 2.2%.

Business news reflects on the fizz coming out of the US tech sector with Nvidia, the chip manufacturer, suffering losses.

Economic calendar

EUR: 10:00 Consumer Confidence

GER: 13:00 Inflation Report

US: 13:30 GDP Data

JPN: Friday 00:30 Inflation Report

AUS: Friday 02:30 Retail Sales

EUR: Friday 10:00 Inflation Report

GBP/EUR Pushing Highs

Overnight trading sees Sterling pushing higher versus the Euro.

The latest run looks to have been sparked by rhetoric from the Prime Minister yesterday.

Today may not see much change to this situation with little scheduled news.

However their is a meeting of the Eurozone finance ministers and the UK Prime Minister is headed to Berlin for talks about cross border trade to try and ease some of the pain associated with Brexit.

Besides that there's a speech from the Bank of England before a more lively day tomorrow.

Business news is equally light with rumbles from UK water companies over proposed price caps which they complain could hamper important service work.

Economic calendar

UK: 13:15 BoEs Catherine Mann Speech

UK Shop Prices Finally Fall

The early hours of this morning saw the BRC release its shop price index.

They reported an annual contraction of -0.3%.

This is the first contraction since October 2021 and is cited being caused by Summer sales to offload clothing.

There wasn't much of a reaction in the markets as the Pound continues to push higher versus the Euro and the Dollar.

USD could be in the spotlight later with the US consumer confidence reading being reported mid afternoon.

Business news looks at the shop price position alongside reflecting on the increased cost of takeaway dishes such as fish and chips.

Economic calendar

US: 15:00 Consumer Confidence

UK Shop Prices Finally Fall

The early hours of this morning saw the BRC release its shop price index.

They reported an annual contraction of -0.3%.

This is the first contraction since October 2021 and is cited being caused by Summer sales to offload clothing.

There wasn't much of a reaction in the markets as the Pound continues to push higher versus the Euro and the Dollar.

USD could be in the spotlight later with the US consumer confidence reading being reported mid afternoon.

Business news looks at the shop price position alongside reflecting on the increased cost of takeaway dishes such as fish and chips.

Economic calendar

US: 15:00 Consumer Confidence

GBP/EUR Jumps On Poor Eurozone Data

Yesterday saw global manufacturing and services data. The Eurozone underperformed the UK leading to a bump in GBP/EUR.

With little Euro news it's unlikely things will be affected today.

The only fly in the ointment might be a speech from the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey.

Prior to that there's also a speech from the Chair of the FED, Jerome Powell, so GBP/USD could come under fire too.

As we lead into a bank holiday in the UK there could be increased volatility in Pound rates on Tuesday as the Pound rebalances from 3 days of stored news.

Business news comes back to increasing energy costs expected in October.....just in time for the Winter.

Economic calendar

US: 15:00 FEDs Jerome Powell Speech

UK: 20:00 BoEs Andrew Bailey Speech

Jackson Hole Symposium Ahead

Today sees the global measure of services and manufacturing purchasing managers indices.

These numbers indicate the health of 2 important sectors.

A median reading of 50 suggests status quo whilst a figure of >50 is seen as positive and vice versa.

This, in turn can have a knock on to the underlying base currencies of the countries being reported on.

With the Pound stabilising at 12 month highs versus the Dollar, is this the tipping point?

If that wasn't enough for the Dollar there's the Jackson Hole Symposium starting today where central bankers meet to discuss global economics.

The Euro could also be bouncy today with the Eurozone consumer confidence number in the middle of the global reports.

Then it's back to the UK just after midnight with a consumer confidence reading being reported.

Business news looks at the potential hike and extension to the windfall tax by the Government on energy companies. Disquiet has been voiced by said companies which would be expected.

Economic calendar

EUR: 09:00 Manufacturing and Services PMI

UK: 09:30 Manufacturing and Services PMI

US: 14:45 Manufacturing and Services PMI

EUR: 15:00 Consumer Confidence

UK: Friday 00:01 Gfk Consumer Confidence

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Higher

The public sector net borrowing position was expected to be a surplus of £0.5 billion. However the Government had to borrow £2.2 billion, so a significant swing.

The swing has been put down to the cost of public services and benefits.

This hasn't had a big move on Pound rates that remain relatively resilient after recent gains.

It could only be GBP/USD that moves today as the federal open market committee releases its meeting minutes early this evening.

Business news centres on the spiralling cost of rent in the UK, which has cooled slightly, but still holding on to big hikes.

Economic calendar

US: 19:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes

Eurozone Inflation Due

Annualised inflation growth of 2.6% is expected from Europe later this morning.

That news is closely followed by the Canadian inflation figure with 2.5% annualised growth expected as global inflation numbers start getting in line with central banks targets.

The Pound could also encounter volatility at breakfast time tomorrow with the UK public sector net borrowing figure being published. Analysts are expecting a positive figure on the back of the July 31st tax receipts.

Business news is thin on the ground with most stories having little impact on currency rates.

Economic calendar

EUR: 10:00 Inflation Number

CAN: 13:30 Inflation Number

UK: Wednesday 07:00 Public Sector Net Borrowing

UK House Prices Resilient

The early hours of this morning saw Rightmove report their house price index.

The UK saw a 0.8% annual growth from the same time last year.

Monthly numbers saw a contraction, so there could be further pressure on the Bank of England for another rate cut.

Other than that it's a very quiet day for scheduled news.

The Peoples Bank of China releases its interest rate decision in the early hours of tomorrow, but that's the only possible catalyst for market moves in the next 24 hours.

Economists are predicting they will leave the rate at 3.35%.

Business news looks at a potential hike in energy prices from October onwards with a prediction of a 9% increase from current prices.

Economic calendar

CHN: Tuesday 02:15 PBoC Interest Rate Decision

Pound Uptick Continues

Overnight trading sees the Pound continue its gains over both the Euro and the Dollar.

As expected UK retail sales figures first thing will have contributed to the run.

GBP/USD is likely the only pair to be affected today with the US Michigan consumer sentiment index being reported later.

Other than that it's a quiet day for scheduled news going into the weekend.

There will be a weather eye on UK house prices as we start the new week with Rightmove releasing its change in house prices early Monday.

Business news digs deeper into the UK retail sales figure. The expected monthly growth has been put down to a football bump.

Economic calendar

US: 15:00 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

UK: Monday 00:01 Rightmove House Prices

Retail Sales Ahoy

The next 24 hours could see GBP/USD get a degree of volatility.

Just after lunch it's US retail sales numbers out followed by the UK report at breakfast tomorrow.

Outside of that the Pound has been further bolstered this morning with quarterly GDP growth coming in at 0.6%.

Services were seen as the main contributor to this growth.

Overall the Pound has continued its good form through the course of the week, and with little Euro centric news scheduled GBP/EUR could continue in the same vein.

Business news is dominated by the pay deal agreed with train workers. This should see an end to further industrial action.

Economic calendar

US: 13:30 Retail Sales

UK: Friday 07:00 Retail Sales

Surprise Drop In UK Unemployment

Breakfast saw a drop in UK unemployment to 4.2% which is way below the expected 4.5%.

On top of that average earnings grew by 5.4% which was also well ahead of predictions.

This caused an immediate bump in Sterling rates first thing. The rest of the day will see if that bump consolidates.

Whether it holds or not breakfast tomorrow could well see the Pound shift again anyway.

The UK inflation number is being reported where an annualised growth reading of 2.3% is expected.

Definitely a case of "watch this space".

Outside of this GBP/USD could be affected after lunch with the US Producer Price Index number being released.

Business news covers the unemployment story with a little more meat on the bone suggesting the figures aren't quite as rosy as first glance. The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has suggested more needs to be done by Government to get people into work.

Economic calendar

US: 13:30 PPI Report

UK: Wednesday 07:00 Inflation Number

Sterling Recovery Continues

After a fairly torrid time for the Pound, rates have turned around in the last week.

With little scheduled news for the day, this recovery could continue.

Tomorrow breakfast sees the first real point of interest with the UK unemployment rate.

Analysts are expecting a figure of 4.5%.

What could be more interesting will be the average earnings which is now beating inflation.

Business news is more multi faceted today. Insurance is the hot topic. Potholes, pay outs after the riots and increases in claims due to bad weather are the main topics.

Economic calendar

UK: Tuesday 07:00 Unemployment Rate

UK: Tuesday 07:00 Average Earnings

Pound Versus Euro Rangebound

Yesterday afternoon saw the Pound gain strength over most major currencies.

This has brought GBP/EUR to an interesting rate where a decisive break to the upside could see the Pound back up to highs.

The German inflation number could be the driver.

There was also an overall move to the upside in global markets as the jitters from last week ease, so this could have contributed to the moves in the currency markets.

Fans of the Canadian Dollar should be on alert later today with the Canadian unemployment rate being reported.

Analysts are expecting a reading of 6.5%.

Overall it's been a relatively quiet week for market news although there's been plenty to talk about in geopolitical circles.

Economic calendar

CAN: 13:30 Unemployment Rate

Recovery Runs Out Of Steam

Early trading sees the Pound back in the doldrums. Nothing catastrophic, but a return to recent lows.

Against the Euro, with no scheduled news for either Sterling or the Euro, things could remain in status quo.

Versus the Dollar it could be a different story as there's initial jobless claims from the US out later.

Eyes will then turn to China in the early hours of tomorrow.

The Chinese inflation number is going to be reported with analysts expecting 0.3% annualised growth.

Business news continues to follow the housing market with a resumption of quick offers on properties starting to come to the fore.

Economic calendar

US: 13:30 Initial Jobless Claims

CHN: Friday 02:30 Inflation Report

Sterling Stages A Minor Recovery

The last 24 hours has seen the Pound rebound slightly from the lows.

At the moment it looks like it could be a dead cat bounce for an otherwise out of favour currency.

There's not much to report scheduled news wise today either so it's the bigger geopolitical events that are dominating.

Possibly the RICS house price balance out just after midnight could cause some movement, but it's unlikely.

In that same vein business news considers the potential for a rise in house prices on the back of the Bank of England rate cut.

Economic calendar

UK: Thursday 00:01 RICS House Price Balance

Pound Continues Its Decline

It's been a difficult little run for the Pound over the last week.

Even its advance on the Australian Dollar has stalled.

And with a modest day of scheduled news it's unlikely this is going to turn around today.

Highlights for the day are Eurozone retail numbers, New Zealand employment, and most importantly, Chinese imports and exports early tomorrow.

Business news continues the discussion around the US going into recession.

The non farm payroll numbers were way off last Friday. However it might be a little premature to suggest that's paving the way for bigger problems.

Economic calendar

EUR: 10:00 Retail Sales

NZ: 23:45 Unemployment Rate

CHN: Wednesday 04:00 Imports and Exports

A Lively Start To The Week

The end of last week saw the start of a big shift in the markets.

Japan raised it's interest rate and the US published a poor employment number.

This has led to a rout in stock markets globally, but in particular the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq.

The knock on effect is a big shift in currency markets.

Sterling is slipping versus the Euro and Asian currencies, but is still dominant versus the Australian Dollar.

However against the Australian Dollar things could change overnight with the Reserve Bank Of Australias interest rate decision which is expected to remain unchanged at 4.35%.

Outside of that there's a raft of services information from around the globe, so the volatility could well continue.

Business news centres on the global stock market situation with a suggestion that the US could be heading towards a recession based on the poor job number.

Economic calendar

EUR: 09:00 Services PMI

UK: 09:30 Services PMI

US: 15:00 Services PMI

UK: Tuesday 00:01 BRC Like for Like Retail Sales

AUS: Tuesday 05:30 RBA Interest Rate Decision

UK Interest Rate Decision Today

Today sees the Bank of England release it's interest rate decision.

Analysts believe there is a 25 point cut inbound to 5%.

However the same analysts think the vote count will be tight at 5 to 4 in favour of the cut.

Expect big repercussions for the Pound if the rate is left unchanged.

The markets do appear to be pricing in a cut as Sterling softens first thing.

There's also US manufacturing data out later, so it could be another lively day in the markets.

Business news covers the UK housing market with the Nationwide reporting a significant jump in house prices at breakfast today.

Economic calendar

UK: 12:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision

UK: 12:00 MPC Vote Count

UK: 12:30 BoEs Andrew Bailey Speech

US: 15:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI

FED Rate Decision Inbound

It's a big couple of days in the FX markets.

The FED is expected to hold it's base rate at 5.5% later this evening.

However the Bank of England is expected to make a 25 point cut tomorrow.

Before all that there's Eurozone inflation numbers out, so it could be a lively 24 hours.

Analysts are expecting the European reading to come in at 2.4% annualised growth.

If all that wasn't enough there's Canadian GDP, Australian trade balance and Chinese manufacturing numbers out.

Business news covers the potential for tax hikes in the October budget, and a payout deal for post office owners affected by the ongoing scandal.

Economic calendar

EUR: 10:00 Inflation Report

US: 13:15 ADP Employment Change

CAN: 13:30 GDP Report

US: 19:00 FED Interest Rate Decision

AUS: Thursday 02:30 Trade Balance

CHN: Thursday 02:45 Caixin Manufacturing PMI

American GDP Numbers Out Later

Although it's been a light week for scheduled news it's been a complete mixed bag for Sterling rates.

Against the Euro it's status quo in a sideways pattern,

Versus the Dollar the Pound has slipped back a bit with the political turmoil throughout the week.

However against the Australian Dollar it's all guns blazing with strong gains all through the week.

With no Australian news scheduled there's no reason why this can't continue.

Outside of this is all USD and EUR with the US GDP number out after lunch and a speech from the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Business news centres on the Governments Great British Energy project with new wind farms planned on Crown Estate sea floors.

Economic calendar

US: 13:30 Preliminary GDP Numbers

EUR: 16:00 ECBs Christine Lagarde Speech

Global Services and Manufacturing Data Ahead

After a relatively quiet week for scheduled news we might see a bit of volatility today.

Throughout the day the global services, manufacturing and composite PMI numbers are reported.

This is a good indication of the global economy.

A median reading is 50. Above that is seen as positive and below is negative.

The general consensus is for readings of 50+ around the world.

This could be the catalyst required in an otherwise turgid week.

In amongst the data is the Bank of Canadas interest rate decision where a 25 point cut to 4.5% is expected.

Business news centres on competitive mortgage rates as the Nationwide offers the first sub 4% deal on a 5 year fixed term.

Economic calendar

EUR: 09:00 Services and Manufacturing PMI

UK: 09:30 Services and Manufacturing PMI

CAN: 14:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision

US: 14:45 Services and Manufacturing PMI

Pound Dominates Southern Hemisphere

It's a real game of 2 halves for Sterling right now.

Against most Southern hemisphere currencies (AUD, NZD, JPY, CNH) the Pound is dominant.

This is cited as being caused by the Chinese interest rate cut yesterday.

The cut suggests China is having to take steps to bolster its economy, which has a knock on effect, especially to Australia who supplies China with many raw materials.

In the Northern hemisphere it's a different story.

Rates are slightly stagnant at the moment in a generally sideways pattern

Possibly the Eurozone consumer confidence reading out this afternoon could sway GBP/EUR.

Business news remains relatively thin today with speculation over humanoid robots becoming commonplace and the ongoing disruption caused by Crowdstrike.

Economic calendar

EUR: 15:00 Consumer Confidence