Pilbara Weather Guy

If you are in the NW this morning you are probably asking yourself what month it currently is . Normal ??

What on Earth is going on with the weather? 26/Jan
(approx 2 min read)
As the world experiences some unusual weather patterns of late, and forecasts struggle for accuracy, we take a dive into what is likely occurring over our heads. Versed followers will have some idea of what we are about to delve into.
A fitting title today, as we strive to answer the fundamental question of how things in our skies have changed so dramatically in the last few years, but particularly the last 12 months or whereabouts.
The worlds ocean surface temps are generally speaking in a rage of warmth, as the main ocean bodies of water (Pacific and Indian) flipped from back to back Nina states to Nino states. Without a slower transition in these patterns, we know there is some serious overhead changes underway. Remember the oceans couple with the atmospheric winds, they aren't independent. This is how seasonal weather predictions are made.
The behaviour of rainfall and wind patterns within the last 6 months of the current El Nino, has been more on par with a La Nina, but not everyone has been the beneficiary of rainfall through the Summer pattern that normally comes with a La Nina. We should not be seeing widespread flooding and expansive rainfall coverage during an El Nino, yet we are. We have also seen more average and below average temperatures, El Nino normally its just hot and dry for Aus.
The exception of rainfall has been the NW of Aus, but this is more down to the unfavourable wind patterns that have been howling westerly for months now. Westerly winds generally mean low rainfall in the NW. The coast has benefited from cooler day time temps, while the interior cops the warm air that heats up as it moves inland.
Humid northerlies is when the wet season hits the NW, something that is yet to occur this season but normally ramps up in Jan starting at the Kimberly and toeing into the Pilbara during Feb-Apr.
Its all about wind when it comes to weather, aside from inaccurate local wind forecasts, there has been no better recent examples of inaccurate computer forecasting than the NW of Aus and QLD regarding TC Kirrily and 3U.
The two lows did not behave in accordance with strong model guidance, routinely changing in drastic ways, with Kirrily well below anticipated strength and even cyclone formation timeframe was far slower than confidently forecasted.
low 3U which made way to the Pilbara region earlier this week, was expected to linger near the Karratha coast, fire up decent storm activity and break some droughts right up to Broome and surrounds.
Instead came into the interior east districts and literally dropped south the next day, barely brining any activity with him at all. Subsequently the mid-lower WA interior and far East Pilbara have seen some of that activity, some silver lining as far as rainfall goes.
There are many recent world examples here, which some can be chalked upto simple El Nino behaviour, but much that cant.
So what is it?
Well it would appear obvious at this point, the acceleration of Earth's magnetic pole shift and the accompanying impacts to our protective Magnetic field from space weather.
This is the result , which is causing some havoc with atmospheric wind patterns. Afterall that's where Earths weather originates from after the sun. Change the atmospheric winds, you change the surface winds. Change the surface winds, you change the weather patterns and oceans etc.
It would help to explain why our best forecast models are getting things wrong so often lately, as the computer algorithms dont account for these changes. And to be fair that would be incredibly complex to do so. Future forecasting i see is going to reduce in certain fields, not improve going forward. A debarkle hopefully we can address sooner than later.
The sun's behavior is erratic at best, and with every solar storm or magnetic disturbance from our star, the impacts to Earth are becoming increasingly more subtle, and accelerating. With every year that passes we hone towards the next major turning point in our 12,000 yearly climate cycle shift. Certainly an interesting time on Earth to be around for.

TC Kirrily has crossed the coast this evening, with her eye practically over Townville as a Cat 2 system, after some modelling suggested she might be a severe cat 3 level at crossing.
Hopefully the impacts and damage bill is on the lower scale, with winds around the 100kmph mark but some heavy rain, particularly on the north quadrant.
TC Kirrily will quickly drop to tropical low status as she dives on a WSW track and perhaps over the course of the week, even heading to WA to reintensify. More on that in the morning as we take a deep dive in what the heck is going on with the weather of late.

With tropical low 3U now in the Pilbara region, he has cranked up some decent cells, including one making its way north From Tom Price, and could make it to the central/east coast and out to sea this evening.

The next 4 days will be interesting with scattered storms across the NW as shown in the 5 day BOM chart attached. Very hard to pin point the rainfall potential with a system like this so it will very much be a wait and see affair up until the weekend. Keep those fingers and toes crossed.

5U is expecting to be named TC Kirrily at any hour now but isnt expected to be as strong as first thought, as she moves close to a wind shear line and coming in a bit slower than first anticipated, which has moved her line into less favourable conditions. Good news (as far as severe systems go) for the coastal areas near Townsville and north of Mackay.

Tropical Low/s Update 21/Jan
The weekend closes and much remains the same for tropical lows 3U (NT & WA) and 5U (QLD) . One is dependent on the other and it spells bad news for the mid north QLD coast. As for WA some much needed rain, it may even bring some localised flooding.
The tracking maps attached once again do the talking for what is most likely going to transpire, with the strong monsoonal winds across the top end providing plenty of fuel for both lows. 3U actually looks very organised over land and that doesnt happen without good moist inflow.
5U, should spin up into TC Kirrily by Tuesday (likely late PM) and will quickly intensify as she moves through a pocket of clear air, the opposite would be whats called wind shear.
This pocket of air is the vacuum/void left by her brother 3U, and i have attached an atmospheric wind chart demonstrating the link between the two which will help steer 5U towards the coast.
By mid week Kirrily should be a cat 3-4 system and staring down the coast most likely between Townsville and Mackay. If Kirrily takes a slightly more northerly track then a cat-4-5 crossing is possible by late week around Townville.
3U is slowly making his way into WA, and taking a fairly straight forward WSW track towards the Pilbara. By late Tuesday/early Wed he should be passing Marble Bar dumping some decent rain and scattered storms in the Inland east district.
Still slightly favouring 3U to reach the East to central Pilbara coast by Wed before hooking inland and we will see how organised his structure is as to how wide spread the falls will be.
The monsoon effect wont be very strong over the Pilbara unless he can move off the coast a bit, but plenty of showers and storms should be associated here, so localised flooding and road closures are possible if he stays the current favoured track. It doesnt take much to flood the Pilbara with its rocky soil base.
Eyes on both this week. For the west, cross your fingers and toes for the wet stuff. For Nth QLD spare a thought and prayer she crosses a low populated area.
PWG

Tropical Low/s Update 19/Jan
As the MJO moves across the top end enhancing monsoon conditions for Aus, Tropical lows 3U and 5U gain traction for their respective journeys westwards. 5U could get pretty serious and 3U is certainly looking increasingly promising to bring some much needed falls to the NW.
Lets start with 5U which is brewing out off the QLD coral sea and enjoying the strengthening effects of the monsoonal winds feeding in plenty of energy, and looking like she may get dragged into a pocket of favourable air for rapid cyclonic development.
I say "dragged" as Low 3U over the NT interior is creating a bit of a vacuum that 5U will likely follow westerly into the QLD coast mid to late week.
The forecast behaviour of 5U (set to become TC Kirrily) is similar to that of TC Veronica back in 2019, with this one clearly set on a holiday to NTH QLD, and showing the same erratic signs of taunting the coast as a severe cat system. This and then possibly returning offshore and onto a different section of the coast.
Expect plenty of media attention with this over the coming days. TC Kirrily likely to leave a lasting impression in 2024. Don't discard a long trip to the west, there is some modelling supporting this depending how close she can stay to the wake and west movement of our low (3U). Segue....
Ok, 3U is our watch for the west as he increases the likelihood of moving back in the Kimberley region close to Kununurra by Monday. The monsoon is keeping him well and truly alive over land and hes in a calm pocket of air too.
From here he will either take a pass across the lower and west Kimberley region (dump some rain in Broome and Derby) and then roll down the Pilbara coast as a tropical low. Or he will begin to dive inland through the Pilbara Interior. Slightly favouring a coastal roll as of today.
There is a small risk of moving offshore and developing into a cyclone by late week. The MJO will have moved into the Pacific by then so pretty low chance, but seen stranger things happen.
I've once again shown some different models for the next 10 days but expect a few changes, plus a graphic to show some of the influences for their tracking. We keep eyes on both systems as they are physically linked now.

PWG

Tropical Lows Update 17/Jan.
As Tropical low 3U continues to stall over the NT, models continue to pump out updated predictions, most of them something different from the other. This truly is the season of abnormals.
Make no mistake there is nothing normal about the 2023-24 season, as Summer to-date defies the grim predictions of a moderate to strong El Nino coupled with its twin in the Indian Ocean. That usually spells widespread drought, heatwaves and bushfires, with isolated flooding events.
Charts continue to show the complete opposite for much of the country. The exceptions of course are the areas subject to the most predictable weather in the country, The Pilbara and Gascoyne interiors. That may change somewhat in the coming week...
Whilst rainfall hasnt yet been a highlight for Northern WA, that may change if tropical low 3U continues to stall and then shift its westerly trajectory. 2 models are favouring this still, whilst models like BOM are sitting on the station fence with a slight inclination towards the Pilbara/Kimberley coast.
Personally leaning towards the low moving in our direction, but alot depends on when 3U gets her Mojo on, as it only takes a day of stalling or atmospheric change to shift those trajectories. Yes, solar storms are one of those catalysts , but our sun is currently quiet on the eruptive front, despite plenty of sun spots to produce storm activity.
For now we watch 3U do some doughnuts in the carpark and get a move on this weekend. Saturday im seeing as the real telling point for what she ends up doing.
No change from Tropical-low 5U, the likely to form QLD cyclone (Kirrily) next week. High probability of forming into a cyclone but unclear if she will turn and cross the mid coast region, or hook away and out to sea from the SE QLD coast. Slightly favouring staying out to sea at this stage but too far out to call yet.

Current movement probabilities for next 10 days. Darker the shade, the higher chance of cyclone formation from the BOM access modelling.

PWG

Weather Update 16/Jan.
Tropical Cyclone Anggrek has formed out off NW waters near Cocos Island (Just outside Aus waters/responsibility) . A cat 1 and not expected to drift in towards Aus, but may come very close to Cocos Islands as a Cat 2 over the coming days.
Tropical low 3U over the NT interior has been the headache for modelling as she slowly started to move away from the Kimberley region and now likely to start stalling over the NT for next 4 days. At least this is what the bigger global models are forecasting.
The stalling and remaining within higher NT tropical latitudes, means she would be less likely to get sucked southwards and inland, which is still the position of BOM and a few others. Although even they are starting to lose their model confidence for a central Aus diver. Another day or two should settle this argument, you can see this on the attached rainfall tracking maps.
Why the difference in the models?
The bigger global model forecasts are showing her gradually push back into WA due to the higher altitude westerly winds that come into the picture, as her cloud structure grows more organised and higher up into the atmosphere.
This is one of the reasons cyclones behave differently to other weather systems, particularly as they get larger, compared to a small tropical low or developing storm.
Same principal occurs when our afternoon thunderstorms rapidly build inland. Once the tops of the storms get so high up from the rapid rise in heat and moisture, they hit higher altitude winds that are normally moving eastward. The wind simply grabs the top of the cloud and drag it east and away from the coast.
Anyway science lesson for the morning is over, it is still school holidays afterall....
Tropical low 5U is more a longer range threat to Aus, with potential to return to the QLD coast next week. as it is currently undergoing slow development between the Coral Sea and offshore waters from Cairns/Townsville. Model guidance is not accurate yet so more monitoring on that side.

And it takes just one ingredient and one night to send the models into a bickering dispute.

As we discussed in yesterdays update, the forecast could change with the arrival of The MJO. And this already appears to be the case as Tropical Low 03U may indeed reverse boomerang and head more westerly, Instead of East and south as overwhelmingly favoured in most models.
So far the US/Canadian models have lead the accuracy charge with this low, when these were the bad performers last season interestingly....

Tropical low developing off the QLD coast and showing cyclone potential, may also head west and into the QLD coast in the longer range.
Both systems will have a sharp eye kept on, an update in the morning likely.

Weather Outlook 14/Jan
We hit the mid-point of January as some favourable wet season conditions lash parts of the north. Wind patterns continue to favour rain in an easterly direction, but the MJO is on our door step and it has been a number of seasons since it has given us any reasons to smile in the west, for rain bearing systems at least.
We will quickly recap in layman's term what the MJO is before we delve into the models and outlook. The Madden Julien Oscillation (MJO) is an oscillating pulse of tropical weather energy (picture a Hula hoop) . Like all weather and climatic patterns on Earth they are cycles that go around in, well circles. They are sometimes strong, sometimes weak.
The MJO is an unpredictable one at times, but essentially it boosts the tropical storm potential as it makes its way around the Summer season line of the equator. Aus has seen very little influence from this guy during out Summers in recent seasons, and is the main driver of cyclone activity for us. BOM forecast monthly cyclone ratings almost soley on this.
Ok, the forecast.
Well its seems increasingly likely that Tropical low 03U over the Kimberley is going to hook back towards the centre of the country or QLD over the coming week, likely bringing flooding to those parts. But some guidance is predicting it will eventually circle back to the NW . Mostly the Nth American models.
The wind patterns sure are finicky the last 6-12 months, forecasting models often getting it wrong...
The storm potential this week is interesting. There is some overnight flare up conditions for the central and East coastal areas, but these will be difficult to pinpoint where until probably earlier in the day, as thy form under very erratic conditions. Munday and Tuesday nights look the most promising for anything. Moderate chance I'd say, cross your toes and fingers.
Inland continues to look promising today/tonight and pretty much all week, increasing by Friday, so hopefully some wet storms in there for parched areas.
Expecting some changes in the forecast this week as the MJO rolls in, Hopefully it gets some decent storms churning up, will have a close eye on it.

8 models to peruse over today, see how it pans out.

PWG

Weather Update will be up tomorrow morning.

Tropical Low 03U is churning up plenty of showers and storms over the Northern Kimberley and NT with most model consensus (not all) to boomerang back in land and head SE.

There is some storm potential for the week ahead for the NW to cover tomorrow, with the combination monsoonal/Tropical-low/MJO influence . There is also a chance of a cyclone forming over the Cocos Islands this week.

Tropical Low Update 11/Jan
The first low had arrived off the northern Kimberley coast and churning up some activity in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf to the north of Kununnurra . As we expected the other day, the low should pull a Cranberries and let linger for a few days up there as the monsoon feeds plenty of moisture in. Tropical low status by tomorrow likely.
Today's model runs are generally favouring the movement to head in a general, slow inland direction due SSE during next week, but there is still some guidance that has it move off the NW coast. Im leaning towards an inland dive but only marginally looking at todays forecast.
One of the factors here is the arrival of the monsoonal winds (NW direction) which is going to cook up an almighty mess as far as flooding is concerned in parts of the top end. Particularly the NT and East Kimberley . Expect plenty of flood stories out of this area during next week. If the low or cyclone moves more westerly then this all changes....
We will check back in tomorrow to see how the models are looking, as the direction of this low and whether she will reach cyclone status late this weekend or next week is still not settled. Storm activity will also be impacted by this, with scattered cells expected over the next few days for much of the NW.

Tropical Low/s & Monsoon Update 09/Jan
Its been a busy 48 hrs on the modelling front as forecasts start to splinter in different directions. We literally have disagreement between most of the models, as the low undergoes development over the few days. The monsoon is also inbound. A welcome sight indeed for rain and storms for Australia's North, particular the western side.
The winds are still indicating the low should continue to be guided west and have reached tropical low intensity by around Thursday, likely located off the north Kimberley coast. Where it goes from there is anyone's guess.
If i had to bet, i think it will linger around the Nth Kimberley coast for a few days and where conditions for further development into a cyclone increases during the weekend . This will depend on whether the system drifts back towards the interior or NT too much during Friday. If she does, then cyclone formation chances reduce. Hugs the coast and cyclone chances increase. TC Kirrily is the next name FYI.
The second low over the Gulf of Carpentaria is also on the build as the monsoon trough over the top end arrives later this week. If we have the tropical low movement off the our NW coast (as we just discussed) then the possibility of this second low in the gulf also reaching cyclone status increases. Twin cyclones next week? yes this is a possible scenario.
So from here we need some more time to let the wind patterns settle in and see if she hugs the NW coast or boomerangs back inland., Model accuracy will start to improve later this week with more data to guide longer range tracking. This is fairly normal for a low that develops over land and heads for the coast.
May do a short update tomorrow if anything changes overnight.

PWG

Tropical Low/s Watch 07/Jan.
As the monsoon continues to transition south towards Aus against the forces of the El Nino and the fading Indian Ocean Nino, the MJO forecast is indicating a moderate to strong passage across Australia, and that means a wet season burst is inbound, and with it some tropical storm potential.
We move to tropical low watch with some model guidance showing a deep inland low forming over the NT over the next few days that should progress west over to the northern Kimberley region by weeks end.
A quick recap of the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation) is an equatorial-circulating pulse of tropical energy that fluctuates in strength. it plays a predominant role during Summer and is the main driver of cyclone/hurricane/typhoon activity. A strong enough MJO has been the missing ingredient for Australia for some years, and cyclone numbers have dwindled as a result.
If this low can move out off the Kimberley coast, then its timing with the passage of the incoming MJO across the top end, means the low could undertake significant enhancement and cyclone potential increases off the NW coast. The MJO should be in our picture from about the 13th, possibly earlier.
I won't speculate too much on the movements of this potential system as models are still not in full agreement, and that is understandable as wind patterns both surface and atmospheric are too far out for accurate tracking. A punchy cyclone is definitively possible by this weekend and could be off the NW coast.
A second low will also be on the development watch for the coming weekend with several models indicating it could form on the eastern side of the NT and may also head west in the longer range.
Storm activity will greatly depend on the formation and movement of this low, however typically speaking it becomes more widespread and also more rain bearing with humidity feeding in from the north. Rain maps attached will change a fair bit but will update through the week.
PWG

Full outlook will be up tomorrow - Wet season burst is shaping up for Australia's North as the MJO heads our way and looks to be stronger than first anticipated.

Radar Anomalies Explained.
The dome? Aliens? Weather control?

As boring as it may sound, the radar anomalies often seen are actually just things like the back scattering of radar echoes in things like humid air and dust. Its this change of speed as the radar signals go through changing density in the air, such as dry air to humid air, or simply dusty, foggy or radio wave interference from other sources.
The signal on the screen shows up like rain is moving around a Dome like invisible structure. The center of the Doppler Radar that is commonly used in BOM stations, sends signals in a 360 degree fashion and gradually outwards and upwards. It gets easier to tell the difference between false echoes and real rain by the way it moves.
Another common one is the long straight beams that emanate from the center of radar, and can be shown upto around 500km out to sea or inland. This more often than not occurs at sunrise or sunset with the suns beams at the same height as the radar causing a electromagnetic disturbance where the radar signal collides with the suns rays, and it registers as a long stretched pyramid like shape.

Weather Outlook - 3 Jan
A strange El Nino continues to grapple the weather conditions over Aus, while we eagerly await the full dispersal of the Indian Ocean Positive Dipole. A wet season burst appears to be on the build with a possible tropical low to keep an eye on.
Ok, its been an odd start to Summer for Aus, no doubts there. The El Nino is not a regular one with ocean surface temps raging across much of the world and wind patterns not quite playing ball either.
We all know there is only one thing capable of inflicting such rapid change from a 3 years in a row La Nina state to a fairly strong El Nino in the space of one season.☀️
The dry spell over the NW the last two weeks is purely due to the dry wind patterns that have dominated and that also means the interior sees dry air heat up well into the 40s consistently while the coast benefits in a local sea breeze cooling effect. Its also a main reason for low cyclone activity.
The MJO (Wet season increasing pulse) will be back around the Australia longitudes from bout the 11th where it should increase to about moderate strength and thats when our next wet season burst should occur over the tropics. Cyclone potential naturally increases during the MJO phases over Aus.
There is some modelling showing some rotational storm development out off the Kimberley coast around this date so we will be monitoring any potential tropical low development here. (see image)
There is another nasty heatwave on the way according to some modelling. It will definitely heat up over the weekend for much of the NW with a trough forming and deepening into next week. Only the far west coastal areas look like they will be spared the brunt of it
Storm activity will increase around Monday so this should help offset the heat somewhat, particularly for the inland areas by afternoon flareup time. Coastal rain chances increase around Wednesday as the MJO inches closer and the trough fires up some decent storm activity. Will look at this closer over the weekend.

Sea surface temp map showing how warm the oceans are, once monsoonal conditions set in (almost there), should crank up a few notches
PWG

And Shannan Taye is the photo comp winner for December, with the most amount of likes for the shot over Dampier boat ramp.
Shannan takes home a Norwesterz Sun/fishing Jersey. Next round will be at the end of January.

Thanks to all who submitted,

Our sun has farewelled 2023 with a N/Y eve X-5 Solar flare, the strongest flare of the current solar cycle ( #25). This flare even though its not directly facing Earth, still produced an Earth Ionizing radiation hit, that caused a radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
The amount of energy in these releases is unfathomable...

We watch this sunspot carefully, as it was reported a week ago to have been fairly massive and producing a fair amount of explosive activity on the far side of the sun.
An X5 flare yesterday confirms this is one to watch over the course of the week, for more flaring and possible CME's which you should all know by now affect our weather and also our technological way of life if they are strong enough.

With Earth already in Sun-Earth magnetically coupled condition, which can destabilize the crust below, a nasty 7.6 magnitude quake has been unleashed in central-West Japan. The shallow quake has already produced some small observed Tsunamis , with a 5m wall possible.
Scary times as parts of the Ishikawa prefecture are evacuated. Lets hope its an uneventful main event.

Dont forget to enter your Dec 2023 photo in the post below to win a Norwesterz Sun/Fishing jersey. Most likes win and closes tonight at 6pm

Why are official temperature readings taken at airports and not a town or city CBD? or even Old mates patio thermometer?
Its a question that has been asked many times, and its actually pretty straight forward....
Buildings, trees, walls, concrete and other natural and manmade structures impact on the temperature. Too much glass, tin and concrete and it acts like a reflective greenhouse, too many trees and you get a similar effect and also a wind block.
Height above sea level is also important to consider, with gauges needing to be:
- Close as possible to local ground level
- A minimum of 5ft above ground
- Should be well away from the nearest tallest structure, and
- 100 ft away from any paved or concreted area.

Old mates patio isn't a good place for a thermometer and will affect true air temp.
Airports provide the most consistent and clear average air temp reading because of the large flat, low lying and cleared zones they offer. No area is perfect but airports are by far the best, or a low lying flat open paddock, or brush area if you want to set your own up.

Photo Competition Summer Giveaway!

Taken any stella landscape/Weather snaps during December?
Over Dec-April judged at the end of each month , a photo comp where the most liked shot wins a Sun Jersey as sported by Cooper and Carter below. Thanks fellas

These Jerseys kick off the launch of NORWESTERZ, a conceptual all sports brand here in the Northwest, made in conjunction with SRL Sports. Hoping to extend the range and designs in 2024.
Have 5 shirts/sizes left (1 for each month) ranging from XS-XL. If your a winner and its not your size I'm sure you have a family member, friend or someone in the community that can be the beneficiary.
We now kick off December, so post your NW landscape/weather shot from this month below
Rules: 1 photo per person and genuinely from this month please
Must be a NW resident for this one.
Must be a photo taken in the NW (general)
The most likes by 6pm Monday wins!