Dan O'Shea for NH State Senate

Congratulations to Bill Gannon for winning the 23rd Districts' State Senate seat!

I hope that in the next few years we see our state and country come together a bit more. If not, I'll be happy to run again! On the ballot next time, though 😅

Last night's debate between Senator Hassan and Don Bolduc was not as informative as I would have liked. I certainly don't appreciate the aggressiveness that has seeped into politics, especially during debates, we can also clearly see that Hassan and Bolduc went in with specific talking points and varied only slightly; Hassan kept focusing on abortion and her bipartisan award and Bolduc remained focused on heating and eating.

The problem here with Hassan is she's very politically trained and effectively refused to answer questions clearly, something Bolduc pointed out early on. She danced around the current issues by focusing on Bolduc instead of responding to direct questions.
Bolduc ran into a few issues as well by outright refusing to elaborate on his stance changes with abortion rights and election results. He is correct in saying abortion is now a state's right issue, but that does not limit the federal government from bringing forth legislation in the future. I would have appreciated more context and a willingness to be upfront with voters.

At the end of the night, this debate likely doesn't change any minds. Neither candidate strayed far from their focus that evening and both were quick to point the finger at the other. That's not a behavior that I like to see in NH representatives or residents.

https://www.wmur.com/article/hassan-bolduc-new-hampshire-us-senate-debate/41849758 #

Sen. Maggie Hassan, Don Bolduc spar over abortion, energy policy in Granite State Debate The major candidates for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire clashed often on the debate stage Wednesday, less than a week before voters head to the polls in the intensely watched race.

The anticipated Fed Funds rate of 5% may not be the peak as the Federal Reserve increased from 3.25% to 4% today. Jerome Powell (video below) reaffirmed the Fed's stance on hiking rates to a point even beyond previously expected figures.

This will immediately impact mortgage rates (and housing markets in general), credit card interest rates, and the savings rates that our banks offer. The longer-term impacts will be harder to gauge, though many analysts agree that a recession is unavoidable at this juncture.

We are slightly better positioned here in NH, and the northeast as a whole, to weather the continued economic downturn. However, many folks have been left with little in savings. As with anything, it is important that we ensure our own financial wellbeing first, and then we should focus on our immediate communities by supporting local businesses and institutions who in turn should support local residents in need of employment.

If anyone has questions or needs help, feel free to reach out!

Fed's Powell: Ultimate Interest Rates May Be Higher Than Previously Expected Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks about the decision by the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee to raise its benchmark interest ra...

Unfortunate news out of the U.K. this morning. While Truss' resignation is not surprising when we consider the economic turmoil Europe is facing (and globally), it is still disappointing to see a severe lack of strong leadership for our allies in the U.K. and in other European countries.

Liz Truss resignation: Tory leader hopefuls need 100 backers by Monday to enter PM race - BBC News Liz Truss steps down after 45 days in office, kickstarting a process that will give the UK its third prime minister this year.

Gov. Sununu took a bit of heat recently with his comments on immigration. It's important for us to have all of the information readily available to have informed opinions, and the groundwork here is that the US immigration system is being abused by some asylum seekers. They are given temporary legal status (regardless of how they enter) while they await asylum hearings, and once they cross the border and make these claims, the states themselves are limited in their response. After 150 days, an asylum seeker is effectively granted temporary work status and a social security number, and that is not an unusual wait time. Prior to the 150 day mark, you can attend school and in some states are even permitted healthcare options. These are individuals who may not be granted asylum, and who are skipping the legal immigration line which is ever-growing.

We are fortunate to be far away from the immediate problem at our southern border, though that does not mean we should remain unaware of the issues. Those who are upset that our Governor is agreeing (somewhat) with other governors, specifically Ron DeSantis, need to understand the full scope of this issue. NH should not be taking in individuals while their status is pending, just as no state should be. These are Federal proceedings and should be handled solely by Federal institutions. We cannot put all the onus on our neighbors in the South to sort out this Federal level political issue.

Immigration advocates protest Sununu's comments on migrant flights to Martha's Vineyard Activists rejected Gov. Chris Sununu's recent proclamation celebrating Hispanic Heritage Month, after Sununu expressed support for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s decision to send flights of migrants to Martha’s Vineyard.

Unfortunately our oil prices are expected to begin increasing due to OPEC cutting their quota by 2 million barrels a day (~2% of global use). While this won't impact current production as they are already underproducing, it does limit their ability to increase production during high demand times.

This won't be an immediate change, rather a slow move upward through December. There is potential for OPEC to change quota in December, though as of this moment they are standing by their cut in production despite the White House pleading with them.

OPEC+ to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day to shore up prices, defying U.S. pressure Oil prices have fallen to roughly $80 a barrel from more than $120 in early June amid growing fears about the prospect of a global economic recession.

The Federal Reserve raised rates again by 0.75%, for a current rate of 3.25%. This is in an effort to combat inflation which currently sits at 8.6%. Inflation is extraordinarily high due in large part to out of control government spending. While we here in NH can do everything in our power to balance the State budget, there is nothing our legislature can do when the Federal Government exceeds their budget by such large margins. Inflation is never a state by state issue, it is always a national issue, driven by national policies.

It is important to understand the impact that policy makers have on our economy when they pass large spending bills. Everything has a cost, and we clearly see just how severe the consequences of these bills can be. Originally we were told that inflation was transitory, and it would subside within a few months. Then we were told that intervention was necessary by the Federal Reserve to curb high inflation, but it would be resolved within two years. Now, the Federal Reserve is showing that inflation will not return to normal levels of 2% until after 2025.

COVID-19 could certainly be classified as a 100 year event. We can fault no one for overreacting initially, whether social distancing policies or the stimulus due to national shutdown. However, the ongoing mismanagement of this country from the White House, the Fed, and the Senate and House Reps needs to change. The direction our country is taking is not a positive one, and for those who think that this was unavoidable; economists have been telling us for two years that this was coming, but we waited until the house was on fire to act.

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. I

I was hoping to hold off on making a post until the State let us know how many votes we received, but it's looking like that will take some more time yet.

Regardless of the outcome, I would like to thank everyone who supported this campaign. This was a rather spur of the moment decision, but one that I felt strongly enough about to take action. Whether the write-in count is large or small, I hope to continue going to local events, being active in the community, and providing informative content on the social media platforms.

Again, thank you all for the support. I will post up the final results as soon as we receive them from the State.

Be sure to get out and vote tomorrow! Primary Day - September 13th 2022.

Remember, if you'd like to support me for State Senator of District 23, you'll have to write me in. The ballot will look something similar to the below image:

As always - if you have any questions, feel free to reach out here or via email [email protected]

Today we remember those who lost their lives twenty-one years ago in what was the deadliest and most severe terrorist attack ever to occur in our great country.

After quietly campaigning for a few months, it's finally time to start speaking up a bit! I'll be out and about wearing the below t-shirt, so if you see me please feel free to come up and chat! I'll also have a few cards on hand to help remind the good folks that I'm running a write-in campaign.

Be sure to get out and vote on September 13th!

While I do try and focus more on local, state level politics, it seems an appropriate time to draw our attention back to national politics. I've never been a fan of the 'victory tour', where our politicians spend weeks/months setting aside their actual daily responsibilities and instead campaign on all that they've achieved. If voters can't tell for themselves that their elected reps have done a good job, I have doubts that halting all work duties to repeat the same dialogue over and over will convince them. But, the tours continue.

As the midterms approach, we've been seeing a very noticeable increase in campaigning and rhetoric surrounding President Biden's successes, all very recent items: The 'Inflation Reduction Act' , a reduction in oil prices and of course the student loan forgiveness plan. Of course the Democratic Party has focused specifically on these, along with the fight for abortion rights, as their main debate points during the midterm.

As a platform for education I would like to address the three items in question. The self-titled Inflation Reduction Act will not reduce inflation. There is widespread, bipartisan agreement on this, the math simply does not compute. It will primarily be a dramatic increase in IRS audits to fund environmental programs. The naming of the bill has caused confusion as the aim itself is not to reduce inflation in any meaningful way.

The recent reduction in oil prices - which are still near record highs - is only temporary. Oil prices will begin increasing as the US stops releasing reserves (October) and OPEC+ begins reducing production to raise prices (September). We are also entering the colder months and we typically see demand jump significantly. Many analysts expect oil and gas prices to return to their early summer highs and some anticipate even more pain to come.

And the recent student loan forgiveness plan; I've spoken and written a post on this before but it's worth stating again: The legality of this is still up for debate. The Atlantic had a nice article recently (link below) for those who would like to read more. What we do know is that this will cost between 300-500 billion.

It is very important to understand the full scope of what each side states as their list of achievements. Unfortunately for the Dem's, right now it's easier to find fault with them as they're in command of nearly all aspects of national government. Whether it's fair or not, all mismanagement is their responsibility.

Be sure to get out and vote on September 13th!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2IkqJuWIzA

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/biden-student-debt-forgiveness-covid-relief-legal/671329/

Biden touts record ahead of midterm elections During a Cabinet meeting, President Joe Biden outlined his administration's accomplishments, with midterm elections only two months out.

It's that time of year again; The weather is beginning to turn, the kids are all going back to school, and our mailboxes are filled with political flyers.

I recently went to get the mail and it was filled to near bursting with nothing but political mailings. Some folks have to go to the post office desk just to get their regular mail because the boxes are too filled. What purpose does this serve? We hardly even (if at all) look at the flyers before throwing them in the recycling. I promise to never add to the junk cluttering our mail.

And, sadly, it's not just our mailboxes being assaulted by politics. Lawn signs are popping up like spring daisies. Each day, it seems, the intersections become cluttered with bigger and bigger political signs, demanding attention. I also refuse to participate in the eyesore that is lawn signs. Our state is beautiful, let's work to keep it that way.

Our candidates should be doing more than spending money on printing, and hiring bots to moderate their social media. They should be spending the time reaching out in a more effective manner. Interact directly via social media, or in person. If advertising is necessary, social media ads are easily skippable and don't increase the overall amount of ads seen. Even emails are effective if they are targeted and meaningful. Sit down with folks at town halls, or host a virtual one for an even larger reach. Go to local events and simply be a part of life. Reach out and communicate.

I hope to be the change that I want to see.

The White House is stating that the recently announced student loan forgiveness plan will be 'paid' for. Unfortunately, when pressed, the only information that Press Secretary Jean-Pierre was able to give was that 'the student loan debt payments resuming would bring in $50 billion per year back into the US Treasury'.
She is not considering that this would have occurred four months earlier without this new plan extending the forbearance.

The more details we learn about the proposal by the White House, the more concerning this new plan appears to be. It's not quite as simple as some of us are thinking; no it will not directly increase taxes, at least not for the foreseeable future.
What will happen, however, is that the estimated ~$300 billion (the same cost as the $1,200 for all stimulus during COVID), will directly increase the federal deficit, which is already reaching unsustainable levels. This will inevitably lead to cost cuts in other areas or, potentially, increases in taxes for all Americans down the road. It will also pump an additional $300 billion into our economy which will exacerbate the inflationary crisis we are currently in.

We should also be aware that there is no consensus, even amongst the Democratic Party, regarding the legality of this proposal. I highly encourage the folks who are excited for this new loan forgiveness plan to wait patiently for the ruling.

White House Believes Student Debt Program Will Be Fully Paid For White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre says the Biden administration believes the student loan relief package will be "fully paid for" because of the...

This will certainly impact many of us. The White House announced today it will be forgiving up to $20,000 in student loan debt (among other student loan reforms) depending on your income levels and whether or not you utilized the Pell Grant.

The argument for this type of action is that it would help those struggling with their current student loan debts. The argument against is that it's more government spending during an already unprecedented time of high inflation.

While I appreciate the White House focusing on the clear unsustainability of current student loan lending practices, I'm fairly confident that this is not the correct response.

Take a read through and let us know what you think about this proposal.

FACT SHEET: President Biden Announces Student Loan Relief for Borrowers Who Need It Most - The White House A three-part plan delivers on President Biden’s promise to cancel $10,000 of student debt for low- to middle-income borrowers President Biden believes

Apologies for the delay!

The quality will improve as we get used to operating these virtual town halls. As always, if you have questions or would like clarification on any issues, please reach out!

Virtual Town Hall - Dan O'Shea Dan O'Shea is a Republican write-in candidate for NH's District 23 State Senate race. If you have any questions, please feel free to reach him directly at NH...

Don't forget, if you have any questions you'd like to ask - we'll be posting a virtual Town Hall/AMA video responding to all tomorrow evening!

A few interesting points to review in this article:

As the governor of New Hampshire, Gov. Sununu should not be using his office to endorse anyone, or anything, outside of the state of New Hampshire. His only focus while in office should be the betterment of NH and the residents of our state. If our state is efficient enough not to require a full-time governor, than we should adjust how we operate.

Another bit of information that I'd like to draw attention to is the large amount of money in our state politics. At the bottom of this article, as a footnote, there is reference to the more than $10 million raised just in the race for New Hampshire's US Senate seat. There is no budgetary requirements on political funding, no oversight of how the money is received or spent, and too many ways for organizations to donate anonymously. These are issues that plague not only our state of New Hampshire, but also our country. We can, and should, lead the nation in restructuring how political campaigns are managed. All moneys used in government, including campaign finances, should be fully disclosed down to the recipient and sender of funds.

On the trail: Sununu the surrogate – governor campaigns for out-of-state Republicans Gov. Chris Sununu often emphasizes that when it comes to politics and policy, he’s laser-focused on the Granite State.“I’m very selfish about the people of New Hampshire in the 603. And that’s where 100% of my focus is,” he said in an interview with...

It is upsetting to see our United States Representatives acting in ways that are clearly against our beliefs here in NH. Senator Maggie Hassan has been praising herself for working across the aisle in a bipartisan way to reduce gas and oil taxes. However, in a recent vote, Senator Hassan voted both for and against motions to strike these taxes. She voted against Senator Graham's amendment (link below) when it only required 51 votes and she voted for her own amendment (link below) when it would then require 60 votes.

These were both amendments to the Inflation Reduction Act and both aimed at eliminating tax on fuel and they had identical measures, ' Strike part 6 of subtitle D of title I'. These proposed amendments are found on page S4170 and S4171.

This is the type of political maneuvering that directly causes confusion and leads to arguments from both sides. Hassan can advertise her amendment for reducing the gas tax, and this is technically true. Graham can call Hassan out for refusing to lower gas tax, and this is also true.

For full reading, please review the following:

Graham Amendment: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1172/vote_117_2_00289.htm
Hassan Amendment: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1172/vote_117_2_00290.htm

Full text: https://www.congress.gov/congressional-record/volume-168/issue-133/senate-section/article/S4165-3

Video of Graham: https://sports.yahoo.com/lindsey-graham-scolded-senate-outburst-120123510.html

U.S. Senate: U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 117th Congress - 2nd Session Use this guide to help you find the full text of recent bills and resolutions on the Web, or order them from the Senate or House Document Rooms, or you can find them in a library.    

We're going to do a virtual Town Hall/AMA on August 19th! The hope is to have a list of questions from folks here on Facebook and Twitter and we'll record the session and post up on YouTube with a link on the social media.

Barrage us with questions in the comment section or via direct message here on Facebook or Twitter, or if you'd rather email, please send to [email protected]. We'll include as many (or all) questions that will fit in a 30-60 minute session. The aim will be to conduct these bi-weekly until the election and depending on the results and the response, we'll continue bi-weekly or move to monthly.

We enjoyed a fun weekend at Kingston Day's! There was quite a few local vendors, though I would have liked to see more. It felt a little too 'Deerfield Fair-ish' but with an odd political twist (a handful of politician tents) that I've never seen before. Quite a scorcher so we grabbed some fresh squeezed lemonade and a few too many Kona Ice's! I hope everyone enjoyed the festivities!

Oil prices are declining quickly, and President Biden is happy to take as much credit as he can for his work in encouraging Saudi Arabia to release more fuel to the market. After all, with the US and other countries taking a hard line stance that we won't be importing any more energy from Russia, the only logical option was to look elsewhere.

Though, it seems, from an economic standpoint, that Saudi Arabia would be in a very profitable position if they chose to buy at a discount from Russia and simply resell to other countries.

Based on their import/export reporting, that appears to be precisely what they're doing.

Exclusive: Saudi Arabia doubles second-quarter Russian fuel oil imports for power generation Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, more than doubled the amount of Russian fuel oil it imported in the second quarter to feed power stations to meet summer cooling demand and free up the kingdom’s own crude for export, data showed and traders said.

The foundation of this bill is to implement a minimum tax on corporations and to spend money on climate change/protection. Calling it the 'Inflation Reduction Act' is extremely misleading as it will have no material impact on reducing inflation. The only way we can reduce inflation is by reducing demand or increasing supply and nothing in this bill impacts either.

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/personal-finance/inflation-reduction-act/

https://www.budget.senate.gov/ranking-member/newsroom/press/cbo-confirms-to-graham-dems-inflation-reduction-act-wont-reduce-inflation

Inflation Reduction Act Won't Move The Needle On Inflation, Report Warns After more than a year of intense negotiations, Senate Democrats have finally struck a deal on a major health care and energy bill. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 is a large investment in making health care and prescription drugs more affordable, fighting climate change and taxing wealthy co

We get to keep our 'First In The Nation Primary' title for at least this next election cycle!

Democrats delay primary order decision until after 2022 vote What's at stake for N.H.? The DNC is weighing whether to adjust the 2024 presidential nominating calendar, which has Iowa as the leadoff caucus and New Hampshire with its first in the nation presidential primary.

In a healthy economy the recent jobs report would be cause for celebration. With historically low unemployment and many more job adds than expected, it certainly appears like good news.

However, it's not quite as simple as that. The Federal Reserve has been hiking interest rates to combat inflation. They've been raising rates slowly because of how fragile our economic situation is and due to us still recovering from the impact of COVID. They are aiming for 'demand destruction', where they slow growth to the point that businesses need to undergo layoffs and hiring freezes, and stop taking out loans to fund growth. This is not what we're seeing, which means the Fed's plan is not working.

If another metric comes in too hot, we should expect faster and higher rate hikes in the future. This will very likely propel our economy into what a typical recessionary period looks and feels like, but with the added detriment of remaining in a high inflation environment.

Employment Situation Summary - 2022 M07 Results The .gov means it's official. Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you're on a federal government site.

It is very frustrating when we see bills like the recent semi-conductor bill being passed quickly through the House and Senate, especially when others take months or years of debating every dime. If you're wondering why it was passed, well a quick look at Pelosi's recent trades will tell you.

Instead of pushing through (very flawed) funding for semi-conductor manufacturers, we should be pushing through bills limiting the ability of Senators and Congressman (and their families) to trade in the markets. Employees of a company are limited on what they can trade 20-60 days before news being released, yet our representatives can trade up until the vote that would release billions to companies? Hassan should be expressing NH views by openly discussing this misuse of information and pushing for change.

Hassan praises semiconductor, reconciliation bills moving through Senate Democrats in Washington say a new legislative package will help curb inflation by bringing down the price of prescription drugs and putting money into clean energy, but Republicans say more spending is not the answer.

WMUR reporting that a UNH poll shows only 16% of respondents support Biden running for a second term. The front-runner at the moment is Buttigieg for the democrat party.

This is good news for the Republican party as Pete performed rather poorly during the 2020 race. He was fourth, behind Biden, Sanders and Warren.

UNH poll reveals first choice candidate for New Hampshire Democrats In Commitment 2024, a new poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center says only one-in-five Granite Staters want President Joe Biden to run for a second term.

The majority of US Senate Republicans chose to vote down the PACT Act 2022, which would expand health care for veterans exposed to toxic substances during service. The argument against this bill is that it would move approximately $400 billion from discretionary to mandatory spending. I've read this bill, it does include $400bn of assumed costs. These expenses, though, are necessary. Veterans serve this country at great personal cost, the least we can do is help pay for it. Voting along party lines needs to stop. The members of Congress and the Senate that are meant to represent us are failing to do so.

**Edit: This 400bn would be spread out over the 2022-2031 years.

I will say, I am glad to see Shaheen and Hassan represented NH fairly here. They both voted 'Yea' on this bill and from those that I've spoken to in District 23, that is how we would have voted as well.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3967
https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1172/vote_117_2_00272.htm
https://www.congress.gov/congressional-report/117th-congress/house-report/249/1?overview=closed

Here's a very heartfelt and emotional message from Jon Stewart. Jon is an inspirational figure, and he was a hero of mine when I was younger. Our views may not align on every matter, but he is forthright and upfront with his opinions. I appreciate honesty, and back in the day you couldn't find a more honest man than him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uPqYhkIzrA

“I Call Bullsh*t!” Jon on the PACT Act Being Blocked in the Senate “This is an embarrassment – to the Senate, to the country, to the founders, and all that they profess to hold dear. If this is America first, then America is...

The figures are in. With this second quarter in a row of negative growth, we are (based on historical indicators of recession) in a recession.

Nothing will likely change here for us, this is effectively just a word. We've been experiencing the results of failed economic policy and massive government spending for the last year, and we very likely will continue to feel these effects for at least another year. The rising interest rates will eventually curb inflation, though at this slow rate it may take longer than expected.

What historically has happened after a recession is announced is that companies will begin to layoff employees in an effort to ensure their survival through an unknown recessionary period. This will exacerbate the impact of a down economy, but will also help to curb inflation much faster than J. Powell and the Fed could be bothered to. We can't predict what will happen with any level of certainty, but we can operate under the assumption that tightening our belts a bit is in our best interests until this ship stabilizes.

As always, if you have any questions, please feel free to reach out.

Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on sou...

The White House released a statement last week attempting to educate us on what a recession is. If you don't remember, they also released a statement on inflation attempting to preempt a market crash by saying that 'any bad inflation news can be disregarded as it's already outdated'.

Well, in the typical political fashion of not learning from prior mistakes, the Biden administration is at it again. They've released a statement which essentially aims to redefine what a recession actually is. The goal is to divert attention away from the recognized standard metric of two consecutive quarters of negative growth and to focus on all the purported many positives. Unfortunately, the 'many positives' center around low unemployment which has historically been a trailing, not leading, metric of a recession.

This could simply be a poorly timed statement from the White House. Or, the more likely scenario, the July 28th GDP figures (that the White House already has seen) will come in negative. The truth is, no two recessions are identical, and despite us having two negative quarters, we may not experience the same type of recession that we had back in 2020, 2008, 2001, 1990 or 1982 (though this does read quite similar to the 80s).

Recessions are common and our economy is extraordinarily resilient due to our location. Still, these statements from the White House are causing more market turmoil than there would otherwise be. By attempting, and failing, to stabilize the markets with vague news or statements, they increase volatility and end up hurting the economy more.

How Do Economists Determine Whether the Economy Is in a Recession? | The White House What is a recession? While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition