Old Vine Capital

📚 Attention college-bound families!

The FAFSA rollout for the 2025-2026 school year is changing, and it's important to understand how this might affect you.

The Department of Education is implementing a staggered release with the following schedule:
💻 A limited rollout begins on October 1, 2024.
💻 Public access opens on December 1, 2024.

This delay is intended to prevent the technical issues we saw last year. While it pushes back the timeline, it shouldn't cause major disruptions for most applicants.

Here's what you need to know:
🔹 FAFSA is crucial for accessing federal aid, grants, and scholarships.
🔹 Even with the delay, most colleges' financial aid deadlines should still be met.
🔹 Submitting early can maximize your chances for financial support.
🔹 It's worth applying even if you think you might not qualify.

Stay informed and plan ahead to make the most of your college funding options. Remember, timing can make a significant difference in the aid you receive. 💡

Another School Year, Another FAFSA Delay. What to Know About Financial Aid Deadlines Timing could mean the difference between qualifying for free money for college and getting stuck with student loans.

Today, we celebrate the contributions of workers everywhere!

In our jobs, we see the heart behind all that hard work. You put in countless hours to build a comfortable life, perhaps save for your children’s education, or create a strategy for your dream retirement.

We help families turn their aspirations into action steps based on their goals, time horizons, and risk tolerance.

So, this Labor Day, as you relax and recharge, take a moment to consider your own future. What does your dream retirement look like? How do you measure whether you are on track?

If these questions linger, we’d be happy to chat and explore ways that we can help you navigate your financial journey.

Happy Labor Day, and here’s to a bright future for all!

Emotions play a significant role in our relationship with money and financial decisions.

For some people, deep-rooted emotional obstacles tied to money can make certain aspects of personal finance more difficult and stressful.

Financial trauma is a real and impactful consequence of experiences like childhood poverty, economic downturns, fraud, and more—and can manifest itself during the personal finance process.

Some examples are:

● Financial inaction: Feeling overwhelmed and unable to take control.
● Decision paralysis: Difficulty making financial choices due to anxiety.
● Scarcity mindset: A pervasive fear of running out of resources.

Recognizing these and other potential roadblocks is crucial for pursuing financial well-being.

Financial professionals can offer a supportive environment to help address some of these challenges. They’re way more common than you might think.

The latest Fed minutes suggest we might see an interest rate cut as soon as September. Here's what you need to know:

▪️ Most Fed officials believe easing policy could be appropriate if data continues as expected
▪️ Markets are fully pricing in a September cut
▪️ Inflation is moving towards the 2% target, but labor market risks have increased

What does this mean for your portfolio? It's a great time to review your investment strategy and consider how potential rate changes might impact your financial goals.

Stay tuned for more updates, and don't hesitate to reach out if you have any questions about positioning your finances in this changing economic landscape!

Fed minutes point to ‘likely’ rate cut coming in September The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released minutes from its July 30-31 policy meeting.

🐘🐴 Ever wondered why a donkey and an elephant became the symbols of our two major political parties?

🎨 Political cartoonist Thomas Nast made these symbols popular in the late 1800s. In 1870, Nast satirized the Democratic Party as a donkey, mocking their stubbornness in the face of progress during the Civil War era. The symbol resonated with the public and stuck.

🐴 Over time, Democrats reclaimed the donkey, transforming it into a symbol of their determination, resilience, and tireless work ethic.

🐘 In 1874, Nast struck again, this time depicting the Republican Party as an elephant. Nast chose the elephant to represent the party’s strength, intelligence, and dignified nature, traits the GOP sought to embody.

Today, these mascots continue to embody the spirit of their respective parties as we head into another election season. 🗳️

🐶 Today is National Dog Day and a time to celebrate the amazing dogs who bring us so much happiness.

It’s hard for dog lovers to imagine life without them. They are such a big part of our families.

Not that every day isn’t a time to appreciate them, but this is an excellent excuse to share pictures on social media and give them a little extra love.

Here’s to all our dogs, best friends, and fur babies. ❤️

Did you know the global AI market is projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2030?

That's a forecast, and it’s subject to change without notice, but the growth prospects may present exciting opportunities across various sectors.

While we see headlines about a handful of well-known companies, there's a whole network of “Pick-and-Shovel” firms quietly fueling the AI revolution.

Who are the "Pick-and-Shovel" players?

Semiconductor manufacturers, cloud infrastructure providers, and AI chip designers are paving the way for AI adoption. These "Pick-and-Shovel" companies may play a critical role in building and scaling AI technology.

Financial headlines can be distracting, and the fear of missing out on the next big thing can lead to do-it-yourself investors making rash decisions.

We are closely monitoring how AI is changing the economic landscape and determining if AI might play a role in our clients' overall strategies.

What are your thoughts on AI's role in the future of finance?

Interest rates for 30-year fixed mortgages have hit their lowest level in over a year, sparking a 35% jump in refinancing applications in just one week.

🏠 Refinancing activity is up 118% compared to last year
🏠 Purchase applications rose 3% but remain 8% lower than in 2023
🏠 The average 30-year fixed rate is now at 6.54%

This shift in the mortgage market could present opportunities for homeowners and potential buyers. It's a great time to review your current mortgage situation and consider your options.

Remember, every financial decision should align with your long-term goals and personal circumstances.

Mortgage refinancing surges 35% in one week, as interest rates hit lowest level in over a year Applications to refinance a home loan surged 35% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index.

July brought good news: inflation dropped to 2.9%, its lowest since March 2021! This marks the 5th straight month of slowing price increases.

While consumer prices are still up from last year, the pace is slowing. Food and energy saw modest rises of 2.2% and 1.1% respectively. But don't forget, overall prices remain about 20% higher than three years ago.

These trends could influence the Fed's decisions on interest rates, potentially impacting various aspects of the economy. It's a great time to review how these changes might affect your long-term financial strategies.

Inflation cooled in July, reaching lowest level since March 2021 Price increases have slowed significantly, but remain above the Fed's target.

Are you taking full advantage of your workplace benefits? Are health savings accounts (HSAs), 401(k)s, disability insurance, and flexible spending accounts (FSAs) offered by your workplace?

Here's a quick breakdown:

HSA: Triple tax-advantaged account for qualified medical expenses. Your contributions are pre-tax and grow tax-deferred, and withdrawals for qualified expenses are tax-free. If you spend your HSA funds on non-qualified expenses before age 65, you may be required to pay ordinary income tax and a 20% penalty. After age 65, you may be required to pay ordinary income taxes on HSA funds used for non-qualified expenses. HSA contributions are exempt from federal income tax; however, they are not exempt from state taxes in certain states.

401(k): Retirement savings plan with pre-tax contributions and potential employer matching. We can help individuals determine a contribution amount that fits their situation. Once you turn 73, you must take the required minimum distributions from your 401(k). Withdrawals are taxed as ordinary income and may be subject to a 10% federal income tax penalty if taken before age 59½.

Disability Insurance: Income replacement if unable to work due to illness or injury—a safety net designed to help you and your family. Disability obligations are dependent on the issuing company’s ability to make claim payments.

FSA: A way to use pre-tax dollars for eligible healthcare and dependent care expenses. Unlike an HSA account, you may have to spend your FSA funds before year-end, adhering to the “use it or lose it” rule. There are some exceptions.

Don't miss out on these valuable resources! Understanding and maximizing your benefits can help your financial situation.

Need help navigating your workplace benefits? Let's connect. We might be able to offer some insights and help create a personalized strategy aligned with your financial goals. 🤝

The alarming rise in elder financial exploitation (EFE) is reaching new heights, with adults aged 60 and over reporting more than $1.6 billion in losses per year due to scams, according to the Federal Trade Commission.

What's even more concerning is the increasing sophistication of scams fueled by artificial intelligence (AI). 🤖

Scammers are now using AI-generated voices and deep fake videos to impersonate loved ones, government officials, and even celebrities, making distinguishing reality from fiction more challenging than ever.

The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (“FinCEN”) released its Financial Trend Analysis in April 2024. It focused on patterns and trends identified in Bank Secrecy Act (“BSA”) data linked to Elder Financial Exploitation (“EFE”).

Key findings include:

▪️ Banks filed 72% of all EFE-related filings.
▪️ 80% of EFE-related filings involve transferring money to a stranger for a promised benefit that the older adult does not receive.
▪️ 20% of EFE-related BSA filings involve theft, where a trusted person steals from an older adult. Unfortunately, 40% of elder theft reports named the elder adult’s children as the perpetrators.
▪️ Perpetrators mostly rely on approaches that minimize direct contact with bank employees, including previously compromised usernames and passwords, guessing passwords, or phishing emails that elicit replies containing sensitive information.

We all have a role in helping protect our seniors from financial exploitation.

Be sure to take proactive steps to help educate and protect your loved ones. Let us know if you’d like to discuss ways to potentially safeguard their financial well-being.

Important developments in the housing market:
▪️ The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreases to 6.55%
▪️ Rates reached their lowest point in 15 months
▪️ It's the largest weekly reduction observed in two years

What factors are contributing to the rate drop? Two factors: the Federal Reserve indicates that potential interest rate cuts may be soon, and the labor market is showing signs of deceleration.

These changes may present opportunities for more favorable housing costs and refinancing options. However, it's important to note that low housing inventory continues to exert upward pressure on prices in numerous regions.
Staying well-informed is crucial for making sound decisions regarding your home and financial strategy. 💼🏘️

US 30-year mortgage rate drops on weak jobs data, Fed rate-cut signal The interest rate for the most popular U.S. home loan plunged last week to its lowest level in 15 months, after the Federal Reserve signaled it could start cutting its policy rate in September, and a downshift in the job market bolstered financial market bets the cuts would be big.

Frequent flyers, this one's for you! 📱

If you have an iPhone, Google has made it super easy to get up-to-the-minute updates on flight status—there is no need to use a flight tracker app or go to the airline’s site.

Just text yourself your flight number (like AA1234), and it will appear in your messages as a hyperlink.

Click on the link and select “flight preview” to get all the info you want.

Thought it was a pretty good hack I hadn’t heard about. Hope it’s helpful. 😎

Happy !

Watching my children grow up is one of the greatest joys in life and a source of so much pride (and maybe a little stress, too!). I want nothing more than to see them succeed in life and be prepared for life's challenges.

As a financial professional, I'm passionate about helping families empower their children for a bright future, and I thought I’d share some ideas that can build the foundation for long-term success:

▪️ Consider Opening a Savings Account Together: Make saving a tangible concept by
opening a joint savings account and setting small goals.
▪️ Involve Them in Budgeting: Discuss household expenses in an age-appropriate way and allow them to participate in making budget decisions.
▪️ Lead by Example: Demonstrate healthy financial habits like responsible spending and bill paying. Talk openly about your financial goals.
▪️ Encourage Earning: Earning money, whether through chores, allowances, or a part-time job, teaches valuable lessons about work and responsible spending.
▪️ Start Conversations Early: The earlier you discuss money with your children, the more comfortable they may manage money as adults.

A few of our favorite books right now for our younger kids:
▪️ I am Money
▪️ Bull & Bear Race at the Big Board
▪️ Cooler Than Lemonade
▪️ A Dollar's Grand Dream
▪️ A Penny's Worth
▪️ Bunny Money
▪️ Alexander, Who Used to Be Rich Last Sunday
▪️ Lemonade in Winter

Building a solid financial foundation starts at home! If you're looking for more resources or insights, feel free to message me.

August is Golf Month, and I've recently started to really enjoy the game, especially since it's become a family affair. My kids are loving it too! Chloe (6) and Sophie (4) are taking lessons and enjoying summer camps, while little Aiden (2) already has his own set of clubs and loves playing in the backyard and hallway. He often wakes up saying, "Daddy, I want to play golf!" Their favorite part? The snack shack, of course, with all its treats!

I've managed to break 100 on my home course, Spanish Oaks, and my next goal is to break 90. I'm also looking forward to participating in more tournaments and playing golf during our travels with my wife, Anjou. I took a break from golf for a few years while living in San Francisco, focusing on building a business and starting a family. Now that we're in Austin, it's great to get out on the course with friends and neighbors, enjoying a few hours in nature and learning to overcome the challenges.

I've noticed that golf has some surprising parallels with investing:

⛳ Just like preparing your shots on the course, creating financial strategies requires a well-thought-out approach and a clear vision for your goals.

⛳ Avoiding hazards on the course reminds me of managing financial risks and navigating market fluctuations.

⛳ Both golf and investing require patience and perseverance as you work towards your goals.

⛳ And just as the game of golf evolves, so does the financial landscape. Continuous learning and adaptation are crucial for success in both.

Recently, I've started taking my clubs with me on trips, playing in Ireland, Hawaii, and various courses in California. I'd love to add more courses to my bucket list—any recommendations? Where should I tee off next?

As summer winds down and college move-in day approaches, it's important to think beyond the dorm room essentials.

Here are three key areas you might want to address before your student heads off to campus:

1️⃣ Legal Authorizations: Once your child turns 18, they're legally an adult. Consider establishing a Power of Attorney (POA) if you want to continue to play a role in their healthcare and finances. Also, a Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act (FERPA) authorization can help if you want access to their academic records. Having these documents in place may allow you to step in if needed.

2️⃣ Allowance and Financial Responsibility: Have a candid conversation about budgeting and financial responsibility, including credit card use. Determine an appropriate budget, and don’t forget to decide whether they can continue to use your accounts for things like Amazon and Uber.

3️⃣ Out-of-State Insurance Coverage: Review your health insurance plan and check to see if it covers your student's location. Explore renters insurance if they'll be living off-campus. If they're leaving their car at home, you might be eligible for a modified insurance rate.

These are important topics to discuss as your children leave “the nest.” If you have any questions, please reach out. We can work with your legal professional to help your family get the appropriate documents in place.

Stocks edged higher in August as investors monitored economic reports for the Fed's next move with short-term interest rates

Monthly Market Insights | August 2024 Monthly Market Insights | August 2024 U.S. Markets Stocks edged higher during a volatile month of trading as investors monitored economic reports about the Fed’s next move with short-term interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led in July, picking up 4.41 percent. The Standard & Poor’s...

With the Summer Olympics in full swing, it's hard not to be inspired by the athletes' dedication and preparation. 🏊‍♂️🏆

Just like swimming legend Mark Spitz, who famously said, "If you fail to prepare, you're prepared to fail," success in any field–including finances—requires preparation!

Don't be a spectator in your financial future. Now is the time to strategize and equip yourself with the knowledge and tools you need to pursue your goals.

A little preparation today can help you tomorrow!

UBS's 2024 global wealth report reveals eye-opening trends:
Did you know 1 in 15 Americans has a net worth of $1 million+?

Global wealth bounced back 4.2% in 2023, with projections suggesting continued growth in millionaire numbers through 2028.

These statistics offer a fascinating glimpse into wealth distribution and potential economic shifts. Remember, everyone's financial journey is unique.

👉 Schedule a review of your long-term financial strategy today. Let's ensure you're positioned to navigate these evolving economic trends!

One out of every 15 Americans is a millionaire, UBS says The U.S. has 22 million people worth at least $1 million, according to UBS, about the same as Western Europe and China combined.

Here’s another observance you might have missed—this week is National Simplify Your Life Week. Who knew?

It made me think about organizing and cleaning out some of our closets and maybe even tackling the garage (who doesn’t love a clean garage?). But more importantly, it’s also a good reminder that your finances can become cluttered and unorganized just as easily as your home.

Here are a few simple steps you can take to simplify your financial life:

Review your budget: Take a close look at your income and expenses to see where your money is going and identify areas where you can cut back.

Consolidate accounts: Combining multiple accounts or credit cards can make tracking your spending and managing your money easier.

Automate your finances: Consider setting up automatic bill payments and savings transfers to help take the guesswork out of monthly finances.

Declutter your wallet: Get rid of old receipts, unused gift cards, and expired coupons to create a more organized and streamlined wallet.

If you're looking for guidance on consolidating and organizing your finances, we can offer a few tips.

National Exercise with Your Child Week is a great reminder to prioritize family fitness and create healthy habits together. 💪

There are so many ways to make fitness fun, from backyard games to bike rides to walks... 🚴‍♀️ The challenge is finding something that all ages enjoy and willingly participate in.

What are some ideas for including your family in your exercise routine?

The Fed's holding steady on interest rates, but markets are getting antsy!

Some economists think the Fed should start easing up, and the markets are pricing in rate cuts as early as September. However, the Fed wants "greater confidence" that inflation is heading back to 2% before cutting rates.

Remember, a changing rate environment can impact various aspects of your financial picture. It's always wise to stay informed and consider how economic shifts might align with your long-term goals.

What are your thoughts on the Fed's approach? Let's discuss it! 💬

Markets are clamoring for the Fed to start cutting soon: 'What is it they're looking for?' Markets are pricing in an aggressive path for interest rate cuts starting in September.

The lazy days of summer are coming to a close, and we’re now entering National Back to School Month! 📚✏️

This time of the year can be both exciting and stressful. There’s a lot to coordinate: purchasing supplies, signing up for afterschool activities, and simply readjusting schedules.

But there’s no doubt that education is one of the greatest investments we can make in our children’s futures. This month, whether you have children or grandchildren, we can all help support the next generation, especially those less fortunate than us.

Think about donating supplies, volunteering your time, or contributing financially to initiatives such as Junior Achievement USA—every bit helps.

Helping families with financial strategies to fund educational goals is one of the most rewarding parts of our jobs. It is also so fulfilling to support education in our communities during this time of the year.

What community events do you participate in?

Advising on investments while paving the way for a cleaner community!

is excited to keep the roads of West Austin s**c and span 📈

At our firm Old Vine Capital, tax optimization and fee minimization is a core focus for clients of all sizes.

Donor advised funds (DAFs) are one of the most powerful tools for tax reduction and long term gifting strategies.

Tax code allows you to transfer highly appreciated stock held for over 1 year into a DAF and you are able to receive an income tax reduction for the entire donation at current market value without paying any tax on the capital gains of the security.

For example, if you bought $50K of Nvidia stock over a year ago and it’s now worth $250K, you can transfer the appreciated stock into your donor advised fund and receive a $250K deduction on your taxable income while not paying capital gains tax on the growth of NVDA stock from $50K - $250K!

Those funds can then be held in your DAF (diversified or not) and be invested in the market for long term growth and future grants to charities can be made at anytime.

💰💵📈🎅🏻

Anjou Ahlborn Kay

Good economic insights... Old Vine Capital

"Friday’s employment report showed plenty of momentum in the U.S. jobs market with 315,000 payroll jobs added across the economy in August. However, last Tuesday’s JOLTs report was even more impressive with an increase in job openings from 11.0 million at the end of June to 11.2 million at the end of July. Although this is down from a peak of 11.9 million at the end of March, it is still enormous relative to any time prior to the last year.

Indeed, the job openings rate, which is defined as the number of job openings divided by the sum of employment and job openings, came in at 6.9% at the end of July, almost three standard deviations above its 3.4% average since the year 2000.
Looking across the economy, every sector is seeing a shortage of workers. However, the most acute problems appear to be in health care, where there are almost 2 million vacancies, and public education, where there are 360,000 unfilled jobs.
It is remarkable that employers are still so hungry to hire after two quarters of negative real GDP growth and with consumer confidence near its lowest levels in 50 years. That being said, we still expect job openings to gradually decline over the next few months for two reasons.

First, with much slower demand growth many companies will discover that they no longer have the business to justify the positions they wanted to fill. This should particularly be the case in construction, due to higher mortgage rates, manufacturing, due to a higher dollar, and retail, due to a squeeze on the budgets of lower- and middle-income households as federal government stimulus fades.

In addition, on the supply side, we saw a welcome addition of 786,000 people to the labor force in the month of August and immigrant visas, having fallen precipitously over the worst of the pandemic, have averaged 14% above 2019 levels over the last six months. While demographics remain a major drag on labor supply, the carrot of higher wages and the stick of fewer government benefits should also help lure workers back into the job market.

This excess demand for workers, particularly as it stokes hiring, is playing a major role in extending the current economic expansion. For one thing, the National Bureau of Economic Research, which defines recessions in part by a lack of job growth, is very unlikely to declare the economy to be in recession while employment, as measured by both the household and payroll surveys, is rising.

Second, the tight labor market is generating substantial household income gains. In the year ending in July, wage and salary income in the United States rose by $1.04 trillion, or 10.0%, reflecting a 5.2% increase in average hourly earnings and a 4.1% rise in payroll jobs. This has partially offset the impact of declining government benefits over the same period.
However, emphasis should be placed on the word “partially”. The reality is that, even with this increase in wage income, the personal savings rate fell from 10.5% in July 2021 to 5.0% in July 2022 which is well below its pre-pandemic average of over 7%. In a similar vein, credit card debt rose by 14.4% in the year ended in June. Even with rising wage income, American consumers are, to some extent living on borrowed time and borrowed money.
This is a critical issue for the conduct of monetary policy in the medium term.

Even if wage gains remain strong, overall income gains will likely slow in the months ahead reflecting a lack of workers and slowly falling job openings.

Demand in the economy will also be negatively affected by higher mortgage rates. As of last week, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate was 5.66% compared to 3.11% at the end of 2021. Soaring mortgage rates, hard on the heels of soaring home prices, mean that the monthly mortgage payment on the average new home with 20% down rose by over 60% in the year ending in July. This will continue to weigh on home-building and home-buying, indirectly impact furniture and appliance sales and reduce the supply of home-equity loans. It could also impede mobility as those wishing to sell in one city and buy in another get hurt by higher mortgage rates on both parts of the transaction. The sad truth is that mortgage rates have been so low for so long that the U.S. housing market will have a very hard time adjusting to normal rates.

The higher dollar and weaker growth overseas should also hurt demand through lower U.S. exports and higher imports. Over the past year, the trade-weighted value of the U.S. dollar has risen by 19%, pushing the real exchange rate to its highest level since 1985. Meanwhile, the global manufacturing PMI index fell to its lowest level in over two years in August. Trade data due out this week will likely show a sharp improvement in the U.S. trade deficit in July and this contributes to our view that the third quarter will see positive real GDP growth. However, this will likely not continue going forward and international trade will likely be a drag on the U.S. economy throughout the rest of this year and 2023.

Finally, while recent polling has given Democrats some hope of holding onto the Senate in November, retaining control of the House remains very unlikely. If Republicans do win a majority in the House, they are unlikely to support any further fiscal stimulus between now and the 2024 presidential election. While this could contribute to a further decline in the federal budget deficit, it also represents fiscal drag which will tend to erode the spending of lower and middle-income consumers.

The bottom line for all of this is that, while we expect economic growth to be positive in the third quarter, it could slip negative in the fourth. Moreover, in 2023, as the labor market returns to equilibrium, the economy will likely be plagued by inadequate demand. While this will continue to put downward pressure on inflation, it will also leave the economy teetering on the edge of recession.

In this environment, pressure will build on the Federal Reserve to provide stimulus by cutting interest rates and suspend balance sheet reduction just as was the case in the last long economic expansion. However, just as was the case then, we expect that this would prove very ineffective, prompting the Fed to provide further monetary easing. This could return the U.S. economy to an environment of low inflation, slow growth and, once again, low interest rates – not a particularly exciting one for American households but a supportive one for both U.S. fixed income and equities." -David Kelly