Brad Lawrence Weather

This is something that is overlooked. IF Global Warming was real, the record high temperatures should be going up. They aren't.

A very significant part of the "Hottest June on record" claim is due to the temperatures being higher out in the ocean some place where nobody is located. It's a satellite derived data point with less than 50 years of reliable records to compare to.

I have concerns that the temperatures may be being manipulated in these places since there's nobody there to refute the claims. As for the terrestrial records, they aren't changing which definitely brings skepticism of the claimed ocean temperatures.

As we head into July, and it will be hot, let's not forget that most of the highest temps in July were long ago. (map from Chris Martz)

The projected change in weather patterns will move the conflict zone north into southeastern SD. The possibility of severe weather is going to be higher than normal for the next 10 days to 14 days, until the weather warms up.

The southern plains into northern Texas are having a very dangerous and deadly night tonight. My prayers go out to all of those involved. Tomorrow morning's news is going to be horrific!

Sorry for the screen shot, but Intellicast shows 11.4" of snow this weekend. It looks like the snow geese might actually know something.

This comes from the WeatherBell Analytics site. While this is a model and I am sure it's overdoing things a wee bit, if you cut these amounts in half, there's still a lot of snow in month of March. There's something like 15" in eastern SD at half the value. It's going to get interesting in a couple of weeks.

Our current warm pattern should last to around the second week of February. Then it should shift to the cooler side for a few weeks. I would expect a week or more of significantly cooler than normal weather in February.

Well, the pattern appears to be switching a little bit later than I had predicted, but well within meteorological prediction accuracy.

The pattern flip may be a little like a meteorological cannon where volley after volley of storms come through the region and gain strength as they move toward the east coast.

The models are ignoring the cooling impact of the snow cover and are predicting above average temperatures for the coming month in the plains. It could end up that way,but there's a lot of snow to melt first. That takes quite a bit of additional heat energy.

We shall see if my weather cannon theory is correct, very soon.

This fledgling without feathers is another sign of nature being confused. The cicadas came out of the ground a little over a month ago and we had a hatch of Mayflies just a couple of weeks ago. It sure makes one wonder.

From everything I am seeing, it appears we should be having above average temperatures through most of the Fall season. I expect it to change in early December to a cooler than average pattern.

Looking at the weather models for the coming week, we will be departing our current rather tranquil weather and go through a series of repetitive low pressure systems. These will bring increased winds and swings in temperatures from day to day on the order of 20° F. It could produce some minor precipitation, but I don't expect significant rainfall.

The weather apps were anticipating a cool front rolling across the state this afternoon. It appears that the front is ahead of schedule and we could see a slightly cooler day than what was forecast. Don't expect 70's today, but some places may stay under the 100°F temps that were forecast.

Aside from the warm temperatures this week, the other significant component of the weather will be the lack of wind. There will be light winds from Tuesday on for most of the Dakotas. This will make the high temperatures feel warmer.

Hurricane Hilary is impacting the desert southwest in ways that seem unbelievable. The thing is it isn't unprecedented. Don't believe all the hype as hurricanes have hit California in the past.

In the news EVERYTHING is due to Global Warming. If everything is due to global warming, then nothing is. What you need to understand is that our naturally occurring weather has a much larger bandwidth of "normal" than the weather guessers understand. This makes them susceptible to calling every little event "catastrophic", "once in a lifetime", "unprecedented", and host of other exaggerations.

We need to see past the hype and realize that our history of known events is quite small. We really don't "know" much of anything when it comes to weather variability.

The Black Hills has to be setting some records with precipitation nearly every day now for weeks on end.

There is a particularly slow moving storm rolling through the Black Hills and spilling out to the plains. The slow movement could allow significant rainfall over a period of time. The storm is moving slowly north east.

It's hard to imagine a rope cloud at this temperature. There's even a hook echo and some outflow. I don't expect any bad weather out of this storm.

I have noticed an interesting phenomenon. There are days when the radio stations just don't come in very well. It's like there's some sort of electromagnetic interference. The following day is very warm. I have no idea what this phenomenon is or what causes it. I have just observed it multiple times.

It certainly looks like a pretty strong storm rolls through the Dakotas with western SD taking the brunt of it. The heaviest snowfall will be north and west of a line from Winner to Watertown. The exact timing is still a little far out to predict. It looks like Wednesday morning about 3 AM will be the height of the storm. This would basically be north and west of that line. The Mobridge area could be in the worst weather for the longest period of time.

The snowfall totals are another question. Spring storms are harder to predict due to several factors. The atmosphere is expanding in spring making thermal changes with elevation compared to winter.

The real kick in the shorts is the extended temperature forecast. We appear to be in for a couple more weeks of below average temperatures. I don’t make the weather. I just try to give you the best information I can find and determine. This too shall pass.

The snow geese have been flying south all week. The weather models are showing a snow storm with 4" to 8" of snow possible. If the temperatures are just a few degrees cooler than predicted that 4" to 8" could become 12" to 24" pretty quickly. The conversion ratio is what makes the difference.

I am worried that this storm could be much worse than what is being forecast. The Gulf of Mexico surface water is well above normal which could add to the moisture content of the atmosphere. Most of the ingredients are there for a big storm. Let's hope they don't combine to maximize their potential like the Power Rangers!

The US is not the big contributer to the CO2 content in the atmosphere. China is much higher in emissions, but pales in comparison to the contributions of the oceans. The oceans are warming due to solar and volcanic energy. The ocean temperatures lag by about 2 years or so from the inputs due to thermal mass and inertia.

There are reasons for the warming based on physics and not politics.

I am not quite sure why the snow geese are flying southeast since Wednesday, but they're going in droves or droves of flocks. The local fields are mostly bare now, so you would think it would be perfect for them to settle in, but that's not the case.

This brings us to the weather system coming through this week. We are only a couple of degrees above getting a lot of snow. If it turns out the temperatures were a little high we might get a pretty good snow. Time will tell.

Looking ahead a bit, I am concerned that we may have a lot of potential for overnight fog coming up. This is the one time we actually want wind.

Looking at this coming week, we have an Alberta Clipper rolling through on Monday followed by a loop low system forming in Montana. The low tightens and makes its was across the southern part of SD starting late Tuesday into Wednesday.

The moisture connection is modest until around 4 PM on Wednesday when the Pineapple express really starts pouring moisture into the storm. I anticipate the greatest amount of precipitation will come Wednesday afternoon into the early hours of Thursday. Whether that comes as rain or snow depends on the local temperature at the time. The air aloft will be warmer and could create freezing rain conditions.

We will see what the models predict as we get closer.

One of the concerns I have with the ground moisture is severe weather this spring. We haven't had too much to worry about for the past couple of years. Hopefully, the weather Gods treat us nice.

The nice weather, relatively speaking, is going to come to an end. What follows for the remainder of the Winter is just that, Winter. The previous seasons with comparable weather are mostly cold through April. A couple of them were bitterly cold. The confidence in this pattern going forward is 70% in February, 60% in March and 50% in April. Like all forecasts the farther out you go, the less likely you have it right.

The most recent year for comparison is 2014. If you remember that one, you know how cold we are talking about.

This is the BIG bridge on Sanborn. It's on an emergency snow route. It is 4wd only at this time. The side streets are worse. Time to stay home!

This coming storm is a low pressure system that starts to form near Las Vegas this weekend. It migrates through Colorado and into Kansas on Monday afternoon to Tuesday. It has Gulf of Mexico upper level moisture support. It is unknown how much of that support survives it's trek up and around Wisconsin and back.

This storm will primarily affect East River SD and areas south.

Saturday morning, virtually all of the United States except the west coast and Hawaii will have Temperatures below freezing. I don't know the last time this happened, but it is kind of rare.

The system coming through today and Thursday will still be mostly a wind event with light snow. There is a second system, an Alberta Clipper type of event that will blast thought Christmas day and may create ground blizzard conditions across the plains. If you can wait until Monday morning to travel, I highly recommend doing so.

I am afraid there's going to be a lot of LL.L for outside temperatures this next week. It is -4° F and below that reads LL.L. Next Thursday overnight into Friday looks brutal with a predicted daytime high in the negative teens. This will be a furnace tester week.