D-Swizzles' Drizzle Report

First run of Hurricane models on tropicaltidbits.com. Not a forecast. These are right more than wrong with intensity. Tracks are usually close. Impacts could be significant if these verify. Not just coastal but inland towards the east coast too. Lots to watch with Invest 92. www.spaghettimodels.com

This is what future Major Hurricane might look like tomorrow. HAFS showing 908mb. HWRF 944mb. Somewhere in the middle? All showing strengthening on approach to land. Look how wide bands will go. All of the Florida peninsula will feel. Tornadoes very very likely. And way north past Florida. www.spaghettimodels.com

Another round of models and same outcome. Latest 12z Hurricane models here on tropicaltidbits.com. 899mb/910mb/918mb/929mb. This is about as bad as it gets. Live tonight 9pm ET with Kevin Guthrie director of Florida Division of Emergency Management FDEM. www.spaghettimodels.com

Latest overnight model runs on tropicaltidbits.com still showing. EURO late to the idea but is now showing same as EURO AI, GFS, CMC pulling some low pressure to likely watch middle next week here. www.spaghettimodels.com

Insane situation unfolding in China today.

We are within a few days. Latest 12z runs here on tropicaltidbits.com. All for later Sunday. Track consistency for sure. Cautious on intensity until we start seeing HWRF/HMON/HAFS models. Time could still be the biggest hurdle on the trek north. East side dirty side. Peninsula lots of rains/storms. New Moon is Sunday (bigger tides with surge). www.spaghettimodels.com

12Z ICON HAS FINISHED ITS RUN...IMAGE FOR THE 15TH... CHANCES ARE INCREASING ON FLORIDA GETTING LOCKED INTO A VERY RAINY PATTERN UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY UP COMING FORECAST PERIOD...00Z GFS JUST INSIDE 7 DAYS ALTHOUGH 00Z EURO HAS SWITCHED UP FROM YSTRDYS... 12Z WAS SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF SPIN IN THE WSTRN GOMEX... DON'T LOOK AT THE GFS PAST 7 DAYS.. LOOK AT DAYS 3-5-7 AND WATCH FOR TREND...

If you read my last post, thank you. It was very in depth for tomorrow’s setup. The latest 0Z Nadocast seems to agree as well. (This model is a machine learning model and has done excellent in the past with pinging down tornado probability)
Southern FL threat, lull across Central FL. Then a big uptick later on across NE FL to the coast. Signified in brown. We shall see.

New forecasting for 2024. NHC now will be issuing inland watches/warnings (not just the coast). OMG this is fantastic news!!! Been lobbying this for years. www.mikesweatherpage.com

Both CMC and GFS showing tightening up around Sunday night/ Monday morning. Will be a wind and rain maker.

Could be a decent wind/ rain event coming early next week..

Chilly weather coming back to FL!

We now have invest 97L in the Caribbean. Some models going a little crazy with it. Something to watch...