AEI's Critical Threats Project

NEW | Recent Russian gains northwest of Avdiivka have prompted Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other limited tactical positions along the frontline west of Avdiivka, although these withdrawals have yet to facilitate rapid Russian tactical gains:

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 28, 2024 Recent Russian gains northwest of Avdiivka have prompted Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other limited tactical positions along the fro...

NEW | The IDF Chief of Staff reportedly approved plans for a major operation into Rafah during a meeting with the IDF Southern Command commander and division and brigade commanders. Read tonight's update:

Iran Update, April 28, 2024 IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi approved operational plans “for the continuation of the war” during a visit to IDF Southern Command on Ap...

NEW | Russian forces will likely make significant tactical gains in the coming weeks as Ukraine waits for US security assistance to arrive at the front but remains unlikely to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.

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NEW | Israeli forces continued to target Palestinian fighters and militia infrastructure across the Gaza Strip.

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Institute for the Study of War The IDF reported on April 27 that the Israeli Defense Ministry began construction of a humanitarian aid distribution area on the coast of the central Gaza Strip. This aid distribution point will service the US-constructed pier off the coast of the Gaza

NEW | Russian forces are stabilizing their small salient northwest of Avdiivka and may make further tactical gains that could cause Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other tactical positions along the frontline west of Avdiivka to a more defensible line.

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Institute for the Study of War Russian forces are stabilizing their small salient northwest of Avdiivka and may make further tactical gains that could cause Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other tactical positions along the frontline west of Avdiivka to a more defensible line.

Hamas and Palestinian factions are targeting and threatening to target the humanitarian pier in the central Gaza Strip that is meant to distribute aid to the northern Strip.

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Institute for the Study of War Hamas and Palestinian factions are targeting and threatening to target the humanitarian pier in the central Gaza Strip that is meant to distribute aid to the northern Strip. Israeli media report that unspecified Palestinian fighters mortared construction

NEW | US President Joe Biden announced on April 24 that the US will begin sending military equipment to Ukraine “a few hours” after signing a bill that will provide roughly $60 billion of assistance to Ukraine. Read today's update from CTP and ISW:

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 24, 2024 Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

NEW | Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appear divided on whether to resume attacks targeting US forces. Read today's update from CTP and ISW:

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NEW | The Kremlin is conducting a concerted air and information operation to destroy Kharkiv City, convince Ukrainians to flee, and internally displace millions of Ukrainians ahead of a possible future Russian offensive operation against the city or elsewhere in Ukraine.

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www.criticalthreats.org | 502: Bad gateway

NEW | Iranian-backed Iraqi militias may have resumed their attack campaign targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria.

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Iran Update, April 22, 2024 The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at t...

NEW | The US House of Representatives passed a supplemental appropriations bill on April 20 providing for roughly $60 billion of assistance to Ukraine. Read tonight's update from CTP-ISW:

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20, 2024 The US House of Representatives passed a supplemental appropriations bill on April 20 providing for roughly $60 billion of assistance to ...

NEW | The Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) continued to conduct “targeted raids” along the Netzarim corridor in the central Gaza Strip on April 20. Read tonight's update from CTP-ISW:

Iran Update, November 13, 2023 Israel is pressuring Hamas to surrender its position inside the al Shifa Hospital.

NEW | Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov signaled Russia’s intent to seize Kharkiv City in a future significant Russian offensive operation, the first senior Kremlin official to outright identify the city as a possible Russian operational objective following recent Ukrainian warnings that Russian forces may attempt to seize the city starting in Summer 2024.

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18, 2024 Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

NEW | Israel conducted retaliatory airstrikes targeting an Artesh Air Force base in Esfahan City, Esfahan Province, Iran, in response to Iran’s April 13 drone and missile attack targeting Israel.

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Iran Update, April 19, 2024 The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at t...

NEW | Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov specified that Russian offensive effort that Ukrainian officials have been forecasting will likely begin in June 2024.

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18, 2024 Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

NEW | Iran is likely engaging in a coordinated information effort to deter an Israeli strike targeting its nuclear facilities and reassure its domestic population about Iran’s ability to protect such facilities.

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Iran Update, April 18, 2024 The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at t...

NEW | Ukrainian forces struck a Russian military airfield in occupied Dzhankoi, Crimea, overnight on April 16 to 17. Read today's update from CTP and ISW:

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17, 2024 Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

NEW | The IDF reported that Israeli forces led by the Northern Brigade (Gaza Division) conducted raids targeting Hamas and PIJ sites in Beit Hanoun over the previous week. Read today's update from CTP and ISW:

Iran Update, April 17, 2024 The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at t...

NEW | Israeli officials have emphasized the need to respond to the Iranian drone and missile attack but have not specified how or when they will do so.

Western and Israeli officials have maintained that the Iranian drone and missile attack into Israel was meant to impose a severe cost on Israel.

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Iran Update, April 15, 2024 The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at t...

NEW | Iran launched a large-scale drone and missile attack from Iranian territory that targeted Israel from Iranian territory.

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NEW | Russian forces are pursuing at least three operational-level efforts that are not mutually reinforcing but let Russian forces prioritize grinding, tactical gains on a single sector of their choice at a time. Ukrainian forces will increasingly struggle to defend against these Russian efforts the longer Ukraine lacks further US military assistance.

Read tonight's update from CTP and Institute for the Study of War:

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NEW | Iran appears to be exploiting the uncertainty surrounding its reported “imminent” attack against Israel to stoke psychological terror in Israel.

Iran Update, April 11, 2024 The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at t...

NEW | Russian forces conducted another large-scale series of missile and drones strikes against Ukraine on the night of April 10 to 11 that caused notable and likely long-term damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 11, 2024 Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

NEW | The Ukrainian military’s effective use of drones on the battlefield cannot fully mitigate Ukraine’s theater-wide shortage of critical munitions. Read tonight's update from CTP and the Institute for the Study of War:

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 13, 2023 Russian state media released and later retracted reports about the "regrouping" of Russian forces on the east (left) bank of Kherson Obla...

NEW | Bloomberg reported on April 10 that Iran or its proxies may conduct missile or drone strikes targeting military and government facilities in Israel in the coming days in response to the Israeli airstrike that killed seven IRGC officials in Damascus. Read tonight's update from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War:

Iran Update, April 10, 2024 Bloomberg reported on April 10 that Iran or its proxies may conduct missile or drone strikes targeting military and government facilities...

NEW | Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian oil refineries are reportedly forcing Russia to seek gasoline imports from Kazakhstan. Read today's update from CTP and ISW:

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 8, 2024 Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

NEW | Senior Iranian military officials have continued to suggest that they will carefully calibrate Iran’s response to Israel's killing of senior IRGC commanders in Syria. This careful approach aims to avoid a direct war with Israel. This approach does not exclude an eventual Iranian retaliation, however. Read today's update from CTP and ISW:

Iran Update, April 8, 2024 The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at t...

NEW | Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov reported that Ukraine anticipates Russian offensive operations to intensify in late spring and early summer.

Read the latest update from CTP and the Institute for the Study of War:

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7, 2024 Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

NEW | Israel withdrew most of its forces from the Gaza Strip on April 7.

Israeli officials and media sources have framed the withdrawals as part of their preparations for conducting a clearing operation into Rafah.

Read the latest update from CTP and the Institute for the Study of War:

Iran Update, April 7, 2024 The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at t...