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Which Chinese stocks are worth buying today?

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🍂 : Maintains 's "Outperform" rating with a target price of HK$441

On October 14, Credit Suisse issued a research report, maintaining Tencent's "Outperform" rating with a target price of HK$441. The bank believes that its main focuses include the recovery outlook for Q4, the progress of cost optimization, the improvement of film account realizations, and the return of shareholders through buybacks.

The bank expects the company's total revenue to fall 1% YoY to RMB 140.8 billion in 2022 Q3, while adjusted net profit is expected to recede 3% YoY to RMB 30.8 billion.

By business, the bank estimates that the group's mobile game revenue will drop 5% YoY in Q3, mainly due to the normalization of traffic in local and international markets, and the lack of large-scale games. As for advertising revenue, the decline is expected to narrow to 9% YoY, mainly due to a low base and moderate improvement in demand.

🍂 : Downgraded the target prices of and standard chartered, and prefers

On October 14, Citi published a report that HSBC will announce its Q3 results on the 25th of this month, unveiling the quarterly performance period for Hong Kong banking stocks. The industry's Q3 results are expected to provide the market with a clearer picture of rising net interest margins, and Hong Kong banks are expected to raise their guidance on net interest margin/net interest income. The very strong quarterly net interest margin expansion and relatively resilient asset quality are expected to bring some relief and rebound to HKCB, especially as recent selling has made valuations attractive again.

Due to the strong earnings performance, BOC Hong Kong continues to be Citi's top sector pick with a "buy" rating, but a lower target price of HK$30.5 from HK$32.7. And HSBC also maintains the "Buy" rating, target price from HK$ 66.3 down to HK$ 56.6, Citi said HSBC's current price is equivalent to 0.6 times next year's P/B(price-to-book) ratio, dividend yield of 10.4%, if investors on the United Kingdom macro-risk concerns recede, will be an attractive buy share. As for Standard Chartered target price lowered from HK$ 70 to HK$ 51.3, the rating remains "Neutral".

🍂 : Maintains 's "Overweight" rating after a strong performance in the first nine months

On October 14, Morgan Stanley issued a report that WuXi AppTec is expected to be profitable, with revenue and adjusted non-IFRS net profit for the first three quarters of this year expected to rise 71.9% and 77.9% YoY, 3.6% and 17% higher than the bank's original estimate, which is equivalent to revenue and adjusted non-IFRS net profit for the third quarter of this year rising 77.8% and 82% YoY, respectively.

Morgan Stanley noted that Wuxi Apptec's guidance of 68% to 72% revenue growth for the full year is "very achievable" because of the company's strong performance in the first nine months of the year. In addition, the bank reiterated Wuxi Apptec as one of the bank's favorites, maintaining an "Overweight" rating and a target price of HK $177.

1014 Research Viewpoints Summary: Tencent, Bank Stocks, Wuxi Apptec Credit Suisse maintains Tencent's "Outperform" rating; Citi prefers BOC Hong Kong.

The Summer Counterattack of Chinese Coffee Brands (Part 2)
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✨02 Squeezing into the coffee market like “putting dumplings in boiling water”

In recent years, China’s coffee market has been extremely lively. Whether it is foreign coffee brands, Chinese coffee brands, or coffee brands created by companies in other industries, they are “squeezing” into the market like “putting dumplings in boiling water”.

According to statistics from iiMedia Research, the number of coffee-related enterprises in China in 2021 increased by 13.3% year-on-year compared with 2020.

In terms of foreign coffee brands, Blue Bottle Coffee from the United States opened its first store in Shanghai, China in February this year, and the Canadian coffee chain brand China business (hereinafter referred to as “Tims China”) has further planned to go public recently.

When comes to Chinese coffee brands, news of the opening of new stores from Manner, M stand, and Nova Coffee, which specialize in flavor and specialty coffee, have successively released. Besides, coffee brands created by companies in other industries are “emerging one after another”. News that various companies ranging from China Post, and Tongrentang Chinese Medicine, to Li Ning, which seem to have nothing to do with coffee, are launching the coffee business came in succession.

Behind the accelerated rise of Chinese coffee brands, it is inseparable from the growing demand for coffee from Chinese consumers and the increase in the production of Chinese coffee beans.

From the demand side, coffee is a kind of fast-moving consumer good created by a typical consumption upgrade, especially the boutique freshly ground coffee. The growth of this type of enterprise is usually positively correlated with the growth of per capita disposable income.

The increasingly fast pace of life has also made coffee a “rigid need” for wage earners. Especially in the gathering places of workers under the 996 working system (it means working from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week) such as Shanghai and Beijing, the refreshing effect of coffee as a functional drink has been re-emphasized as well. Various cost-effective chain coffees and convenience store coffees have risen rapidly, becoming the first choice for coffee drinkers who do not pursue the “third space”.

From the coffee bean supply side, the growth rate of coffee bean production in China has reached 52.1%, of which the coffee bean production in Yunnan, the main producing area, accounts for more than 90% of China's coffee bean output. The increase in the production of local coffee beans has provided convenience for coffee companies in terms of raw material supply.

Behind the accelerated rise of Chinese coffee brands, it is inseparable from the growing demand for coffee from Chinese consumers and the increase in the production of Chinese coffee beans.

From the demand side, coffee is a kind of fast-moving consumer good created by a typical consumption upgrade, especially the boutique freshly ground coffee. The growth of this type of enterprise is usually positively correlated with the growth of per capita disposable income.

The increasingly fast pace of life has also made coffee a “rigid need” for wage earners. Especially in the gathering places of workers under the 996 working system (it means working from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week) such as Shanghai and Beijing, the refreshing effect of coffee as a functional drink has been re-emphasized as well. Various cost-effective chain coffees and convenience store coffees have risen rapidly, becoming the first choice for coffee drinkers who do not pursue the “third space”.

From the coffee bean supply side, the growth rate of coffee bean production in China has reached 52.1%, of which the coffee bean production in Yunnan, the main producing area, accounts for more than 90% of China's coffee bean output. The increase in the production of local coffee beans has provided convenience for coffee companies in terms of raw material supply.

✨03 Is a war between Chinese and foreign coffee brands inevitable?
With the advent of Chinese coffee companies, the competition between Chinese and foreign coffee brands has intensified.

Xiaoyu, a continuous entrepreneur in the coffee industry, said that coffee was originally an “exotic product”. Before the development of Chinese coffee brands, when came to coffee, most consumers only thought of Starbucks, because its brand effect occupied a “highland” in consumers’ minds. However, with the rise of Chinese coffee brands, coffee is more and more inclined in the direction of new-style tea drinks.

“If observing carefully, one will find that the most popular items in various coffee shops do not seem to be Americano,” Xiaoyu said consumers seem to prefer sweet-flavored coffee to the slightly bitter and monotonous .

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The Summer Counterattack of Chinese Coffee Brands (Part 2) Translated by Ralph Xiao

Daily Chinese EV Market News
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✨EV Stocks Tracking
On October 13, as of the close of the US market, fell 0.78%, fell 4.40%, fell 1.72% and fell 4.90%.

On October 13, as of the close of the H-share market, NIO fell 11.38%, XPeng fell 10.26%, Li Auto fell 0.68%, fell 25.73%, fell 9.91% and fell 2.78%.

✨Industry News
1. On October 13, the official account of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the news that in October 2022, the first international standard in the field of autonomous driving test scenarios, ISO 34501: 2022 Road vehicles - Test scenarios for automated driving systems Vocabulary, led by China, was officially released. ISO 34501 is the first international standard in this series, which mainly regulates the concepts of automated driving systems, dynamic driving tasks, design operation scope and conditions, clarifies the relationship between scenarios, dynamic and static environments and physical elements, and forms the basis for the development of international standards including functional scenes, abstract scenes, logical scenes and concrete scenes, including scene level description rules.

2. On October 13, the Shanghai Municipal Government in a press conference, explained the new round of the "Shanghai Transportation Development White Book". Tang Wenkan, deputy director of the Shanghai Municipal Economic Information Technology Commission, introduced that the promotion and application of new energy vehicles will be strengthened, with the proportion of pure electric vehicles in new individual purchases exceeding 50% in 2025, and the proportion of new energy in bus cars and cruising cabs exceeding 80%; the demonstration application of hydrogen fuel cells will be promoted in areas such as public transport and sanitation, and the scale of 10,000 vehicles will be strived to be reached in 2025.

✨Company Updates
1. On October 13, the official account of published a video. In the video, Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei Intelligent Vehicle Solutions BU, mentioned that AITO has the ability to sell 20,000 units per month. According to the data released by Huawei, in September this year, the delivery volume of AITO reached 10,142 units. Yu also said that the future competition in the automotive industry will be like in the aircraft industry, with no more than five major Chinese automotive players.

2. On October 12, , a global luxury pure-electric and high-performance car brand, officially released its first ultra-luxury high-performance pure electric - , which is priced at 880,000 ~ 1.03 million in China.

Chinese EV Daily: China-led First International Standard for Automated Driving Test Scenarios Officially Released; NETA to Enter Myanmar Market Yu Chengdong said AITO has the ability to sell 20,000 per month; Polestar 3 made its global debut.

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🍂 : Expects to earn 7% less last quarter and maintains its "Overweight" rating
According to Morgan Stanley, Tencent's Q3 revenue is expected to fall 3% YoY to RMB139 billion, while non-GAAP operating profit is expected to fall 7% YoY to RMB37.9 billion, reflecting the normalization of game market demand and the still lukewarm recovery of its advertising business.

However, the report believes that fast-developing video account realizations and key game releases will catalyze a turnaround in revenue performance. The bank cut Tencent's 2022-24 revenue forecast by 0-2% and lowered its non-GAAP operating profit forecast by 1-3%; it maintained Tencent's "Overweight" rating and lowered its price target by 12.5% from $400 to $350, equivalent to 17 times its 2023 forecast P/E ratio.

The report also noted that Tencent's recent buyback pace has accelerated compared to fiscal 2021, which is believed to provide some buffer for the stock price. The stock now trades at HK$254.6, with a total market capitalization of HK$244.88 billion.

🍂 : Expects 's Q3 Revenue to Grow 11.3% with an "Overweight" rating

China Merchants Securities expects JD's Q3 revenue to grow 11.3% YoY and to grow faster QoQ, according to its report. Management of JD said that GMV growth improved further in September, partly due to strong smartphone sales. The bank expects JD's non-GAAP net profit to reach RMB 7.1 billion in Q3, up 41% YoY, thanks to scale effects and gross margin improvement driven by product mix optimization, as well as the company's continued streamlining of operations and cost reduction.

The bank expects JD's Q4 revenue to grow 14% YoY, and FY2022 revenue and non-GAAP net profit to grow 12% and 33% YoY, respectively, and says it remains bullish on JD because of its unique resilience and growing market share in a challenging environment. The bank maintains JD's "Overweight" rating and lowered its price target on the U.S. stock to $72 from $77, with a Hold rating. The stock now trades at $46.27.

🍂 : believes the industry will embark on a weak recovery and is optimistic about the sector in Q4

According to the Galaxy Securities research report, compared with the previous "policies based on the city" level of bottom-up decentralized support, the 930 top-down policy has a stronger signal effect and a more obvious stimulation effect. A series of adjustments to the interest rate policy opened the real estate industry credit easing cycle, and Q4 may be a new round of policy window period, the main problems that plagued the industry in the early stage are gradually solved and corrected, and then the industry will embark on the road of weak recovery, optimistic about the sector in Q4.

1013 Research Viewpoints Summary: Tencent, JD, Real Estate China Merchants Securities expects JD's Q3 Revenue to Grow 11.3%; Galaxy Securities believes the real estate industry will embark on a weak recovery.

The Summer Counterattack of Chinese Coffee Brands (Part 1)

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In August, (NASDAQ: ) and (OTC: , hereinafter referred to as “Luckin”) announced their second-quarter financial reports in 2022, but the two coffee companies gave completely different answers.

From the perspective of revenue data, Luckin’s same-store sales increased by 41.2% year-on-year in this quarter, while Starbucks’ in China this quarter fell by 44% year-on-year.

According to the store data, the number of Luckin stores in China reached 7,195 this quarter, a net increase of 615 from the previous quarter, which makes Luckin surpass Starbucks both in the total number of stores and the net increase from the previous quarter. This quarter, the number of Starbucks stores in China was 5,761, all of which were directly operated, achieving a net increase of 107 from the previous quarter.

By virtue of the popular , the “rising star” Luckin has “overtaken” Starbucks. However, looking at the Chinese coffee market, it is of no difficulty to find that Chinese coffee brands and coffee brands created by companies in other industries have already “sprung up all over the country”.

In 2021, received three rounds of financing, with a valuation of tens of billions. In August 2022, Seesaw, which specializes in specialty coffee, opened its 100th store. China Post, Tongrentang Chinese Medicine, and even Moutai are said to be launching Chinese-style coffee.

In fact, the favor of capital for the coffee market can be traced back a long time ago. With the increase in China’s per capita income and disposable income, coffee, as a representative of consumption upgrading, welcomed its market scale growth at a faster pace. According to a report from iiMedia Research, China’s coffee market valuation will exceed one trillion yuan in 2025.

As an imported product in China, coffee was still dominated by foreign brands a few years ago, but with the rapid development of Chinese coffee brands such as Luckin, Chinese coffee and foreign coffee brands seem to have to conduct a desperate fight...

✨01 “Barbarians at the Door”—Luckin
From the beginning of its establishment to now, Luckin Coffee has gone from the stage of relying on massive subsidies to continuously launching products in vogue in just four years. Now it has “overtaken” Starbucks in the latest quarter’s financial data, all of which lies in its thorough understanding of the Chinese coffee market from three aspects: hits research and development, franchise business pattern which paved its way to success, and sales channels.

The effect of hits on Luckin can be embodied in the changes in Luckin’s marketing expenses. According to Luckin’s financial report data, at the beginning of its establishment in 2018, Luckin’s marketing expenses accounted for 88.81% of its total revenue. Thus, it is safe to conclude that marketing methods such as discounts and subsidies are Luckin’s absolute “magic weapon” to attract consumers.

Since 2019, Luckin’s marketing expenses as a proportion of total revenue have declined rapidly, and by the end of 2021, the proportion of this expense was only 4.23%.

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The Summer Counterattack of Chinese Coffee Brands (Part 1) Translated by Ralph Xiao

Daily Chinese EV Market News
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✨EV Stocks Tracking

On October 12, as of the close of the US market, rose 0.39%, rose 1.49%, rose 3.61% and rose 2.80%.

On October 12, as of the close of the H-share market, NIO fell 17.51%, XPeng fell 11.15%, Li Auto fell 14.38%, fell 15.77%, fell 8.14% and fell 4.98%.

✨Industry News
The number of insurance of the first week of October (all passenger cars): Changan 23,900; BYD 23,200; Geely 18,900; 16,700; 12,600; passenger cars 6,193; passenger cars 5,552; GAC Aion 2,423; 2,218; NIO 1,222; XPeng 580; Li Auto 194.

✨Company Updates
1. On October 11, according to media reports, NIO's CEO Li Bin said that he hopes NIO would be among the top five in the industry by 2030. To achieve this goal, NIO is not only making a big push into the European market, but also plans to enter the U.S. market by the end of 2025, and will launch a sub-brand that will focus on inexpensive models that are expected to hit the market in two years.

2. Recently, it was reported that BYD India has considered building a second factory in India and will announce the news to the public in due course. Previously, BYD had a factory in India for the production of BYD e6.

3. On October 12, GAC AION's second intelligent manufacturing center was completed and put into operation. With the first new vehicle AION Y Plus coming off the line, AION has completed another breakthrough in production capacity. This is the second time this year that AION has completed capacity expansion, and now AION's overall planning capacity has reached 400,000.

4. On October 12, NETA's official account announced that it has decided to upgrade and adjust some of the NETA S features and configurations, taking into account the questions and requests from users of the previous orders. In addition, NETA S deliveries will begin in November 2022.

5. On October 12, Great Wall Motor's official account said, in September, Great Wall Motor sales in Australia and New Zealand exceeded 4,000 units, a record high, with a YoY increase of 101%, of which sales of new energy models accounted for 22%. From January to September, the cumulative sales of Great Wall Motor in Australia and New Zealand reached 21,500 units, a YoY increase of 19%.

Chinese EV Daily: NIO Plans to Launch a Sub-brand to Focus on Lower-priced Models; BYD Considers Building the Second Plant in India NETA will start deliveries of NETA S in November; the second smart manufacturing center of AION was completed and operational.

Daily Chinese EV Market News
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✨EV Stocks Tracking
On October 11, as of the close of the US market, fell 3.39%, fell 1.36%, rose 3.58% and fell 20.03%.

On October 11, as of the close of the H-share market, NIO fell 22.69%, XPeng fell 18.50%, Li Auto fell 20.54%, fell 14.00%, fell 11.83% and fell 10.49%.

✨Industry News

On October 11, the China Charging Alliance released the operation of public charging infrastructure. In September 2022, there were 12,000 more public charging piles than in August, up 56.6%YoY. By September 2022, members of the alliance had reported a total of 1.636 million public charging piles, including 704,000 DC charging piles and 931,000 AC charging piles. From October 2021 to September 2022, about 49,000 new public charging piles were added every month.

✨Company Updates
1. On the afternoon of October 10, Traveler X2 completed its first overseas public flight in Dubai, which was the first local public flight display after the Dubai Civil Aviation Authority issued a special flight permit for X2.

2. Recently, the BYD Mexico branch delivered the first batch of five pure electric semi-trailer tractors Q3MA to Marva, a large local transportation company, at Expo Transporte in Puebla state, Mexico. By the end of this year, BYD will deliver a total of 120 pure electric semi-trailer tractors to Marva, forming BYD’s first fleet of pure electric tractors in Latin America.

3. On Oct 11, the 50,000th was officially rolled off the production line at Zeeker Smart Factory in Hangzhou Bay, Ningbo. In less than a year from October 19, 2021, when the first Zeekr 001 production model rolled off the production line, to October 11, 2022, when the 50,000th Zeekr 001 was reached, Zeekr set a first-year production speed record for a new power brand. At the same time, Zeekr 001 continued to maintain the sales champion of Chinese brands with over 300,000 yuan pure electric luxury models in September.

Chinese EV Daily: China Holds 1.63 Million Public Charging Piles in September, Up 56.6% YoY; The 50,000th Unit of Zeekr 001 Rolled Offline XPeng Aeroht Flying Car completed its first overseas public flight in Dubai; BYD delivered the first batch of pure electric semi-trailer tractors in Latin America.

Daily Chinese EV Market News
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✨EV Stocks Tracking

On September 29, as of the close of the US market, fell 10.10%, fell 9.15% and fell 6.14%.

On September 29, as of the close of the H-share market, NIO rose 0.23%, XPeng fell 5.34%, Li Auto fell 0.94%, and fell 33.54%.

✨Industry News
1. On September 29, Wang Xia, President of the Automobile Branch of the China International Chamber of Commerce, said: From January to August this year, has exported 1.91 million cars, a year-on-year increase of 47.5%, becoming the second largest automobile exporter in the world. Among them, the export of new energy vehicles exceeded 340000, a year-on-year increase of 97.4%.

2. On September 29, Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission and other 10 departments issued the Shanghai Municipal Support Measures for Encouraging the Development of Electric Vehicle Charging and Changing Facilities, which mentioned that they should support the construction of taxi charging demonstration stations. A financial subsidy of 30% of the amount of charging equipment will be given to the certified demonstration station built in 2022. Support the construction of a shared charging demonstration community.

✨Company Updates
1. On September 29, Leapmotor was listed on the main board of the . The issue price was HK$48, opening 14.58% lower to HK$41. The closing price was HK$31.9, down 33.54% from the issue price.

2. According to the data from Hong Kong Stock Exchange, JPMorgan Chase increased its shareholding in XPeng-W from August 26 to September 26, with the shareholding ratio increasing from 4.71% to 5.98%, and the shareholding volume increasing from 61.9 million shares to 78.58 million shares. During this period, XPeng's share price fell 26% accumulatively. Based on the average stock price of HK $62.206 per share, this increase in shareholding involves about HK $1.038 billion.

3. On September 29, the second phase project of the Chengdu Base of Power and Energy Storage Battery was officially signed, and the capacity of the base will reach 50GWh. According to the plan, the target capacity of the power battery of China Innovation Airlines will reach 500GWh in 2025, and the expected capacity will reach 1TWh in 2030.

4. On September 28, announced that the company planned to invest in the construction of a new energy vehicle upgrading project in Liangjiang New Area of Chongqing, with an estimated investment of 1.5 billion yuan.

5. On September 29, announced that its NV model would be officially launched on October 8, providing a purely electric version and an incremental power version, of which the maximum endurance of the incremental power version may reach 1257km, and is expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter.

6. On September 28, announced that it had officially entered the Israeli market, and had signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the leading Israeli dealer Blilious Group. NETA U and NETA V models will enter the Middle East market for the first time.

7. On September 29, Ora officially announced that the new Lightning Cat will be launched on October 27. The new car will use a purely electric drive motor, with a maximum range of 705km.

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🍂 : Maintain "Outperform" rating on , target price of HK$137

CICC released a report, predicting that Alibaba’s revenue in the second fiscal quarter ending in September will increase by 3% year-on-year to RMB 207.3 billion (the same below), which is 3% lower than market expectations, mainly due to the impact or pressure of the epidemic and macro uncertainties; EBITA is expected to be adjusted It will increase by 6% year-on-year to 29.8 billion yuan, mainly due to higher-than-expected cost reduction and efficiency increase.

CICC lowered Alibaba's revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2023 and 2024 by 1% and 3% to 896.3 billion yuan and 984.9 billion yuan respectively; Considering the steady progress of cost reduction and efficiency increase, the non-general standard net profit forecast for this fiscal year (2023 fiscal year) is raised by 3% to 142.8 billion yuan, and the forecast for the fiscal year 2024 is basically maintained. Maintain the rating of "Outperform" and maintain the target price of H-shares at HK$137.

🍂 : Downgrade the target of the HSI by the end of this year to 19,110 points, and look at 22,470 points by the end of next year

HSBC Global Research released the Asia-Pacific stock market report, saying that it is advisable to start from the beginning to review the prospects of Chinese stocks, and expect the prospects of some industries to become brighter. The bank maintained its "Overweight" rating on Hong Kong stocks and lowered its target forecast for the Hang Seng Index at the end of this year from 23,810 points to 19,110 points. It is expected to rise to 22,470 points by the end of 2023

🍂 , chief executive of : The new energy sector has a strong margin of safety, and the downside of the stock price is relatively limited

Recently, the policies and news that will ease people's anxiety toward the EV industry, as well as EV stocks, are emerging. Regarding investment opportunities in the market outlook, Ma Jun, chief executive of Changjiang Securities, believes that the recent adjustment of the new energy sector is mainly due to the high growth rate in the past three years, and the proportion of institutional positions has reached a certain position, which leads to crowded transactions.

0929 Research Viewpoints Summary: Alibaba, HSI, New Energy Sector HSBC Research said that the prospects of some industries in Hong Kong stocks have become brighter; Ma Jun, chief executive of Changjiang Securities, believes that the new energy sector has a strong margin of safety, and the downside of stock prices is relatively limited.