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NFL Week #16, Saturday Football, Dec.23, 2023
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The Week 16 NFL schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with significant matchups, and today we'll focus our attention on the only two NFL games scheduled: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, and later, Buffalo at Los Angeles Chargers.

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CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-6) -3 at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-7) (38.5)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | NBC | Acrisure Stadiun, Pittsburgh

The Bengals (8-6), winners of three straight, head to Pittsburgh (7-7) on Sunday with a chance to strengthen their playoff position while simultaneously all but ending the Steelers' postseason hopes.

The Steelers are 0-3 against the spread (ATS) in their past three games. They are also 0-3 ATS in their past three games as an underdog.

The Steelers, losers of three straight, have big problems. The offense is a mess even after offensive coordinator Matt Canada's firing.

Quarterback Kenny Pickett will miss his third straight game while recovering from right ankle surgery. The defense is without its top three safeties due to injury or suspension. It will take a heroic effort for Pittsburgh to overcome so many obstacles with such sparse talent.

Steelers QBs have nearly as many interceptions (nine) as passing touchdowns (10) this season. Pittsburgh ranks 26th in completion percentage (62%) and Total QBR (37).

Sometimes you just have to go with the better team, regardless of your gut feelings.

The Bengals can make a playoff statement here. A win bumps them up to 56% playoff bound, while a loss knocks them all the way down to 13%.

TAKE CINCINNATI -3 over Pittsburgh

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BUFFALO BILLS (8-6) -12.5 at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (5-9) (43.5)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | NBC | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood

The Buffalo Bills continue their push to return to the playoffs when they face the Los Angeles Chargers in a Week 16 game on Saturday at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. After starting the season 5-5, the Bills (8-6) have won three of four, including their last two.

Meanwhile, the Chargers (5-9) have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL and will be playing their first game after the firing of coach Brandon Staley.

Buffalo's James Cook has been one of the best running backs in the league this season. The second-year back from Georgia ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards (968), behind only Christian McCaffrey.

Cook is coming off his best-ever game, rushing for a career-high 179 yards and one touchdown in the 31-10 blowout of the Cowboys.

The Bills are hot, and the entire public will be betting on Buffalo. This looks suspiciously like the "Gimme of the Year", and that is not always a Given.

Los Angeles is catching Buffalo in a potentially flat spot, following three consecutive huge matchups for the Bills against the Eagles, Chiefs and Cowboys.

Give me the Chargers defense to play motivated, and help L.A stick around to cover this wide spread.

GO WITH LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +12.5 over Buffalo

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GOOD LUCK! We'll return early for Sunday's NFL action. See You tomorrow!

NFL Week #15, Monday Night Football, December 18th, 2023

Week #15 concludes with a west coast matchup of Philadelphia at Seattle. The Eagles have lost two in a row, and the Seahawks are on a four game losing streak. Desperation is beginning to set in for other teams based on yesterday's results. Stay tuned!
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-3) -3.5 at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (6-7) (45)
12/18/ 8L15 p.m. ET, Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Lumen Field, Seattle

The Eagles have lost two straight and are no longer alone atop the NFC East after last week’s loss to Dallas. They no longer have the inside track at the No. 1 seed in the NFC after losing to San Francisco two weeks ago and thus the 49ers hold the tiebreaker.

Since Sirianni took charge in Philadelphia before the 2021 season, the Eagles' only three-game losing streak came in his first month as a head coach. However, the Eagles can wrap up a postseason spot with a victory tonight.

The Seahawks (6-7) plight is even more significant. They’ve lost four straight for the first time in Carroll’s tenure. They’ve gone from being firmly entrenched in the NFC playoff conversation to now on the outside looking in on a muddled pack trying to find their way back into contention. Time is running out for so many.

Regardless of which Quarterback starts tonight (Geno Smith or Drew Lock), the Seahawks are able to move the ball. A hazardous schedule stretch the past month has put Seattle in a tough spot to make the playoffs, but all it takes is one win in the NFC and postseason prospects can change.

The bottom line is that even though it's been the Cowboys and Forty Niners whipping the Eagles the past two weeks, those were still beatings, and there are now some glaring fundamental issues such as a downgraded infantry (4.6 ypc a year ago; barely 4 ypc now), to lack of push from the DL, to ongoing leaks in the secondary.

The word is getting out that Jalen Hurts is ill, possibly jeopardizing his availability. It may become a game time decision.

The Seahawks are 13-4 (.765) on "Monday Night Football" under coach Pete Carroll. Only the Steelers have a better winning percentage on MNF since 2010 (.833, 15-3 record).

Play Seahawks

Seattle's playoff chances would be steady at 46% if it wins, but drops to just 11% if it loses another game.

Play Seahawks.

Philly is suddenly fending off Dallas in the NFC East, though a win tonight would help its case. After their embarrasing loss at Buffalo, it's hard to imagine how many teams remain who will be intimidated by the Cowboys.

The Eagles will be 81% to win the division if they win tonight, while a loss would make it a 50-50 endeavor.

Play Seahawks.

Seattle running backs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet have a difficult matchup against an Eagles defense that allows the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.

The Seahawks are more likely to lean on the passing game against Philadelphia. The Eagles' defense gives up the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.

Five straight Eagles games following a loss have gone under the total.

I'm calling this selection tonight, in large part, because of the Rule of Four. Go Figure!

PLAY SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +3.5 over Philadelphia.

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Good Luck Tonight! Return Saturday for continuing NFL Coverage.

NFL Week #15, Sunday Football, December 17th, 2023

The Week 15 Sunday NFL schedule for the season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know for 7 of the top betting games of the day.
Don't get left behind!
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ATLANTA FALCONS -3 at CAROLINA PANTHERS -3 (33.5)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati

Atlanta is tied with Tampa Bay and New Orleans atop the division. Of the three teams, the Falcons have the easiest remaining opponents - starting Sunday when they visit the division's also-ran, the NFL - worst Carolina Panthers (1-12).

The Falcons' other remaining opponents are Indianapolis (7-6), Chicago (5-8) and the Saints.

The Falcons held a one-game edge in the standings before losing 29-25 to Tampa Bay despite 347 yards passing from Ridder. The Saints climbed back into a tie by pounding the Panthers 28-6. Nonetheless, Atlanta is in good position to win its first division title since 2016.

But first things first. If the Falcons can't get past the NFL's worst team today, they won't deserve a play off spot.

No matter how much heat Desmond Ridder gets from his coach, who deserves to be on the hot seat, the fact remains: the Carolina quarterback has been an embarrassment from the beginning of this season.

Carolina ran for more than 200 yards against New Orleans, but managed just six points. The last team to rush for 200-plus yards and not score a touchdown on offense was the Rams in a 14-9 loss to Seattle on Oct. 28, 2013.

The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their past six division games (they failed to cover last week).

GO WITH ATLANTA -3 over Carolina
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CHICAGO BEARS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS -3.5 (38)
1 p.m. ET, Cleveland

On Sunday, Fields and the improving Bears (5-8) will visit Cleveland for a matchup against the Browns (8-5), who have been hammered by injuries and are leaning on veteran QB Joe Flacco to get them to the playoffs for just the second time since 2002.

Chicago comes in with back-to-back victories for the first time since 2021, when the Bears beat Seattle and the New York Giants in Weeks 16 and 17.

With a win over Cleveland, they would match their longest streak since a three-game run late in 2020.

The Browns lost five more key players to significant injuries this week. Offensive tackles Jedrick Wills Jr. and Dawand Jones were ruled out with knee injuries, safety Grant Delpit went on injured reserve with a groin injury and defensive linemen Maurice Hurst and Ogbo Okoronkwo suffered pectoral injuries.

As of Thursday, only Okoronkwo, who has 4 1/2 sacks, had a possibility of returning in the last four games.

The Browns look like they're heading to the playoffs with Joe Flacco giving the offense a big boost.

The Browns are 6-1 ATS at home this season with unders going 5-1-1.

TAKE CLEVELAND -3.5 over Chicago
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HOUSTON TEXANS @ TENNESSEE TITANS -3.5 (37)
1:00 p.m. ET. Nissan Stadium, Nashville

Much concern about whether Houston QB C.J. Stroud will be released from concussion protocol has pushed this line above a field goal. Because he makes this team go, almost any backup would be inadequate. Davis Mills has the experience but is 5-20-1 as a starter for the Texans on bad teams. Worse for him, top WR Nico Collins (calf) has yet to practice this week.

Titans RB Derrick Henry owns a remarkable stat versus Houston: 200-plus rushing yards in four of the past five meetings. WR DeAndre Hopkins will be pumped up facing his old team.

Levis just had the first 300-yard passing game of his career and is 3-4 as a starter. He led the Titans to 15 points Monday night in the span of 51 seconds to stun Miami 28-27. His first road win snapped the Titans' nine-game road skid and gives them a chance at consecutive wins for the first time this season.

Houston is battered and bruised right now. The home fans will be expecting a lopsided victory here. Anything less will not be acceptable.

GO WITH TENNESSEE -3.5 over Houston
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NEW YORK JETS at MIAMI DOLPHINS -9.5 (37)
1:00 p.m. ET, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami

The Jets (5-8) are coming off one of the best wins of their season - a 30-6 blowout of the Houston Texans that can serve as an energy-boosting victory to build on.

The Dolphins blew a 14-point lead against Tennessee with less than five minutes remaining. The Dolphins (9-4) still sit atop the AFC East, and they're the No. 2 seed in the conference.

Weather reports are forecasting heavy rain for this area all day Sunday, and there will be a lot of "slipping and sliding" if that turns out to be an accurate forecast. But then, if everything turns out to be "sunny and bright", this will not be a "MUST WIN" game for the Dolphins.

Don't be surprised if it turns out Aaron Rodgers returns at quarterback. Many NFL games have been filled with dramatic endings. This could be one of them.

Weather Forecasters are predicting heavy rain all day Sunday for most of Florida. While it will rain on both sides of the field, the Dolphins rely more on their passing game to score points.

MONEYLINE ALERT: PLAY THE JETS (+$345)

PICK NEW YORK JETS +9.5 over Miami in an Upset
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WASHINGTON COMMANDERS @ L.A. RAMS -6.5 (50.5)
4:05 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood

The Rams look like a different team since their Week 10 bye. Quarterback Matthew Stafford returned from a thumb injury and is playing his best football of the season. Los Angeles is averaging 34.6 points per game in its past three games, victories over the Cardinals and Browns and a loss to the Ravens in Baltimore. The Rams also have only one game remaining against a team with a winning record: Week 18 against the 49ers.

Matthew Stafford has played some of the best football of his 15-year career over the past month, and now he's about to lead Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and the Los Angeles Rams against the worst pass defense in the NFL. Washington will then proceed to just keep dropping Sam Howell back over and over again in a comeback attempt. Howell has been sacked 58 times and is on pace to tie David Carr’s NFL record of being sacked 76 times in a season.

Since week #10, the Rams have gone 3-1, and damn near 4-0, after giving the Ravens all they could handle in Baltimore. Stafford is playing like a top 5 QB, he has a top 5 RB, they run the ball very well and are solid defensively. They have scored nore than 31 in 3 games in a row and the Commanders have allowed more than 29+ in 4 straight games. McVay might run it up on his old team like Mike McDaniel did, too. Washington's last 3 games are losses by 30, 35 and 12. This will be another double-digit thrashing. The Rams look playoff ready.

TAKE LOS ANGELES -6.5 over Washington
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DALLAS COWBOYS @ BUFFALO BILLS -1.5 (50)
4:25 p.m. ET, Highmark Stadium, Buffalo

The Dallas Cowboys will look to stay hot when they square off against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The Cowboys (10-3) have won five in a row and have overtaken the Eagles for first place in the NFC East. Meanwhile the Bills (7-6) are in a dogfight for one of the three wild card spots in the AFC.

Both teams are coming off highly emotional victories, with Buffalo getting a road win at Kansas City, and the Cowboys getting it done over the Philadelphia Eagles. With Dallas now being in the catbird seat as division leadedr, I cam't see them giving it up easily here.

The challenge for the Cowboys is carrying over the momentum they’ve generated in winning five straight, while spending much of the past month at home, and taking their high-octane offensive show on the road.

For all the hype and fluff being heaped on the Bills, we must not lose sight they are ranked 11th in the AFC standings, and one of six teams at 7-6. Buffalo maintains an outside shot of winning its fourth consecutive division title after the Bills defeated the Chiefs last weekend and Miami fell to 9-4 following a loss to Tennessee. The Bills have little room for error.

The Bills are 2-7 ATS in their past nine games. Unders are 5-1 in the Bills' past six games.

GO WITH DALLAS +1.5 over Buffalo

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SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
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BALTIMORE RAVENS -3.5 at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (42.5)
8:20 p.m. ET NBC, Everbank Stadium, Jacksonville

The Ravens have won seven of their last eight to move atop the conference. They have nine scenarios in which they would clinch a playoff spot with a victory in Jacksonville. More importantly, they want the home-field advantage that comes with being the top seed.

Jacksonville is trying to avoid a third consecutive loss to the AFC North. Coach Doug Pederson’s team struggled to stop the run against Cincinnati and then gave up way too many big plays against Cleveland.

The Ravens gave up 31 points at home to the Rams last week, and in the process they might have lost safety Kyle Hamilton (MCL sprain) for Sunday Night Football. Hamilton is Baltimore's second-best defender, per PFF. He makes impact plays with regularity. He was a limited practice participant Wednesday but admitted his status is up in the air.

Jacksonville is coming off consecutive losses, but Trevor Lawrence's ankle doesn't appear to be an issue as he practiced fully Wednesday.

The Lamar Jackson-led Ravens are 5-16 ATS when favored by more than a field goal, while the Jaguars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 versus winning teams. Look for Jacksonville to slow down Baltimore's ground game and keep this close, if not win outright.

The Jaguars are playing on “Sunday Night Football” for the first time in 14 years. They have played in the prime-time slot 11 times previously, having alternated wins and losses. If the pattern holds, the Jaguars will beat Baltimore.

Jacksonville’s last Sunday night game came against Pittsburgh in 2008, a 26-21 loss.

The Jaguars are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games.

PICK JACKSONVILLE +3.5 over Baltimore
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We'll Return Tomorrow for the MONDAY NIGHT game, December 18th. Good Luck!

NFL Week #15, Saturday Football, December 16th, 2023

The NFL has just a month left in its regular season and we're in for a strong finish to the postseason. Only one team has secured a spot in the playoffs and only two teams have been mathematically eliminated from contention. Think of the possibilities!
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MINNESOTA VIKINGS at CINCINNATI BENGALS -3 (40)
Saturday 1 p.m. ET, Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati

Teams looking to continue their winning ways clash when the Minnesota Vikings take on the Cincinnati Bengals in a key interconference matchup on Saturday. The Vikings (7-6), who have won six of eight, are coming off a 3-0 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. The Bengals (7-6), who have won two in a row, defeated the Indianapolis Colts 34-14 last weekend.

Bengals quarterback Jake Browning has played well since Joe Burrow went down with a season-ending wrist injury. In five games played this season, Browning has completed 77 of 102 passes (75.5%) for 924 yards and five touchdowns. He has been picked off twice, but has a rating of 110.9. Browning is also a threat to run, carrying 13 times for 77 yards (5.9 average) and two touchdowns.

The Vikings have hung tough since losing starting quarterback Kirk Cousins for the year due to injury. Since going down on Oct. 29 in a 24-10 win at Green Bay, Minnesota has won three of the past five games.

The Vikings are also expected to get wide receiver Justin Jefferson back from a chest injury this week. In six games this season, Jefferson has made 38 catches for 598 yards (15.7 average) and three touchdowns.

This will be the 15th meeting between the teams since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, with the series tied 7-7.

GO WITH CINCINNATI -3 over Minnesota
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-1.5, 42.5)
4:30 p.m. ET, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis

The Colts and Steelers are mirror images of each other.

Both are 7-6 and they start Week 15 sitting in the AFC's final two playoff spots. Injuries have forced both teams to turn to backup quarterbacks, and both hope to rebound from last week's embarrassing losses.

The Steelers didn’t just lose their last two. They became the first NFL team with a winning record to lose back-to-back home games to teams at least eight games under .500. They’ve only topped the 20-point mark once in their last seven games.

Indy had a four-game winning streak snapped by Cincinnati but has struggled to run the ball. Their last three wins came by a total of 14 points, thanks largely to turnovers and non-offensive touchdowns. The Colts also have lost eight straight to the Steelers, most recently on Nov. 28, 2022.

These two have a history that can't be overlooked. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

TAKE PITTSBURGH +1.5 over Indianapolis
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DENVER BRONCOS at DETROIT LIONS -4.5 (47.5)
8:15 p.m. ET, Ford Field, Detroit

The NFC North-leading Lions have lost two of three games, leaving them with a two-game lead over Minnesota in the division and facing a challenging closing stretch. After facing the surging Broncos, they will play the Vikings twice along with a road game against Dallas.

Detroit still has one of the most potent offenses in the league, with quarterback Jared Goff and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown leading a unit that averages 390 yards (third). Goff has thrown for 3,449 yards and 21 TDs, and St. Brown has 1,063 yards and six scores. Running backs David Montgomery (770 yards) and Jahmyr Gibbs (692) have combined for 16 TDs.

At the same time, Denver has been rolling, and quarterback Russell Wilson and receiver Courtland Sutton have become a dangerous duo. Sutton has scored 10 touchdowns, and fellow receiver Jerry Jeudy and running back Samaje Perine have combined for 82 catches. The defense has made strides, allowing an average of less than 15 points over the seven-game run.

This is the worst possible spot for the Broncos. Even though they've won six of seven, they're playing their third straight road game on a short week. They continue to be extremely conservative in an effort to limit mistakes.

That will make it hard to keep up with a Lions offense that usually clicks at home. Denver gives up an NFL-high 5.1 yards per carry, which sets up well for David Montgomery (4.8 ypc) and Jahmyr Gibbs (5.4 ypc).

Russell Wilson would love to pick on corner Jerry Jacobs like every other QB has, but the Lions finally benched him for Kindle Vildor.

Jared Goff is much better at home (99.6 passer rating, 69.8 completion percentage, 7.7 yards per attempt) than on the road.

PICK DETROIT -4.5 over Denver
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We'll Return Saturday evening for the Sunday NFL games on tap for December 17th. Good Luck Today!

NFL Week #14, Monday Night Football, December 11th, 2023

A rare double header on Monday Night is in store when Tennessee visits Miami, to be televised on ESPN. The other matchup brings the Green Bay Packers to East Rutherford, NJ to battle the New York Giants, televised on ABC.

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TENNESSEE TITANS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS -14 (46.5)
12/11 9:15 p.m. ET | ESPN Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Money Line: Tennessee Titans (+600) ; Miami Dolphins (-900)
Total: 46.5; Opened: 46.5

Being possibly without RB Derrick Henry is a big blow to a Titans offense that has been mediocre, to say the least. Miami is playing outstanding ball on the offensive side and should be able to take advantage of a Titans secondary at home.

The Dolphins are typically a much better team at home. They're coming off back-to-back dominant road wins against bad teams. They'll face another bad team here at the start of a three-game homestand, and one with a poor pass defense that, like last week, seems tailor made to giving up 40-plus points to the Dolphins.

Where the Titans have success is in the red zone, where they rank second in success rate, but the Dolphins offense is first in the red zone by a wide margin, nullifying that rare Tennessee strength. And the Titans defense will be without star lineman Jeffery Simmons. This feels like a 42-20 type of game.

The Dolphins are 7-1 ATS as favorites this season. Tua Tagovailoa is 17-10 ATS in his career as a favorite including 9-3 ATS when laying at least six points.

I see Miami this getting a lead of 2 TDs by halftime. The Dolphins can strut their stuff at home in prime time and build Tua's MVP case against a team that is horrible on the road. Miami has too much explosion and balance on offense to be denied. The Titams rank 22nd in plays of 20+ yards allowed). Miami's win margin at home: 50, 15, 21, 14, 7. Half of TENNESSEE's 6 road losses have been by 14 or more.

The Titans are 0-6 outright and ATS against teams currently with winning records this season. The Dolphins are 7-1 ATS against teams currently with losing records this season (8-0 outright).

GO WITH MIAMI -14 over Tennessee

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GREEN BAY PACKERS -6.5 @ NEW YORK GIANTS (36.5)
12/11 8:15 p.m. ET | ABC, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Money Line: Green Bay Packers (-290) ; New York Giants (+240)
Total: 36.5; Opened: 37.5

The Packers are smoking after beating up the Chiefs in primetime, and that win has inflated their stock to the point it's time to dive in on the other side. Green Bay has avoided turnovers for three straight games, but further progress isn't a given so far away from home.

The New York defense has multiple takeaways in six of its last eight games. The Giants' offense continues to be a work-in-progress, and they have had two weeks to prepare for this game. QB Tommy DeVito has had some success when not facing the stifling Cowboys defense. The Giants have four wins and are being treated like a winless and hopeless team, but they'll show up in primetime and get the cover here.

New York has not been eliminated from the playoffs, but it cannot afford another loss.

All five Giants home games have gone under the total this season. Unders are 9-3 in Giants games this season.

The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their past five games as a favorite, BUT Green Bay is just 1-5 ATS in their past six games as a road favorite.

Want to see which team has the motivation?

Monday night will be the 1,400th regular-season game in the history of the Giants franchise, and New York can earn its 400th home victory as it is 719-646-34 overall and 399-300-17 at home.

MONEYLINE ALERT: Take a shot on the New York Giants (+240)

TAKE THE NEW YORK GIANTS +6.5 over Green Bay.
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We'll Return Saturday to cover the NFL games on tap for December 16th. Good Luck!

NFL Week #13, Sunday, December 10th, 2023

The final five weeks of the NFL regular season are here, and playoff races are starting to take shape. This appears to be crunch time. Let's find 7 Winners!
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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS -2 (41)
12/10 | 1:00 PM ET | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Money Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+100) ; Atlanta Falcons (-120)
Total: 41 ; Opened: 39.5

With three of their final five games within the division, starting with a contest Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Falcons are in prime position to make the playoffs for the first time in six seasons.

The Buccaneers (5-7) are coming off just their second win in the last eight games, holding off woeful Carolina 21-18 last Sunday.

Tampa Bay still has a shot at its third straight NFC South title, but this game is essentially a must-win with Atlanta holding the tiebreaker edge in head-to-head (after a 16-13 win over the Bucs in October) and divisional record (a 3-0 mark, compared to the Bucs at 2-1).

If the Falcons win Sunday, they would for all intents and purposes hold a three-game edge over Tampa Bay with four weeks to go.
The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS on the road this season despite four straight outright losses.

The Falcons have covered three straight meetings. Overs are 11-4 in the past 15 meetings.

The Falcons have covered five straight division games. They are 3-0 outright and ATS in the NFC South this season.

This line should be a Pickem. Take your pick.

TAKE TAMPA BAY +2 over Atlanta.

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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS -2 (44)
12/10 | 1:00 p.m. ET |CBS | Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati
Money Line: Indianapolis Colts (-110) ; Cincinnati Bengals (-110)
Total: 44; Opened: 40.5

Line Movement Alert: Opened Colts -2.5

"Wise Guys' have pushed this line to Cincinnati -2, after opening at Colts -2.5. That's a four and a half point turnaround indicative of smart money making its voice heard at the betting window.

This week the Bengals will face a Colts team that has plenty of holes on defense and without its star RB for a second game in a row. QB Gardner Minshew and this Colts offense has been good, but I think the Bengals, with their full compliment of weapons on offense, will churn out more points at home behind Jake Browning. Monday night's upset against the Jaguars was no fluke.

The Colts are 4-0 ATS as favorites this season. The Colts are also 5-1 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS against teams currently with losing records.

The Colts have covered four straight games. This makes them subject to "the Rule of Four".

Too many signals point to the Bengals.

GO WITH CINCINNATI -2 over Indianapolis

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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS -3 (33)
12/10 | 1:00 p.m. ET | Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland
Money Line: Jacksonville Jaguars (+145) ; Cleveland Browns (-170)
Total: 30.5; Opened: 38.5

Signed three weeks ago by Cleveland as emergency protection when quarterback Deshaun Watson was lost with a season-ending shoulder injury, Flacco has a chance to get the Browns into the playoffs - a scenario not even he could have imagined. Flacco is expected to make his second start for Cleveland on Sunday as the Browns (7-5) host the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4), who are dealing with their own major issue at quarterback after Trevor Lawrence suffered a high ankle sprain against Cincinnati.

Though hobbled, Lawrence managed to practice some this week, leaving open the possibility he'll play in a game with major AFC postseason implications. If he can't, the Jaguars will start backup C.J. Beathard, who played two series Monday night after Lawrence went out.

The Browns currently hold one of three wild-card spots, but their grip isn't nearly as tight after dropping road games in Denver and Los Angeles the past two weeks. Another slip-up could put their playoff chances in serious peril, making the matchup with Jacksonville almost a must-win.

Same for the banged-up Jaguars, who lead the AFC South by one game over Indianapolis (7-5) and Houston (7-5).

It hasn't helped that Jacksonville has been smashed by injuries, losing Lawrence, wide receiver Christian Kirk and left tackle Walter Little on Monday, a week after tight end Brenton Strange and left tackle Cam Robinson went down.

Jacksonville is the only NFL team with a perfect road record this season - here and abroad.

The Jaguars are 4-0 in true road games and 6-0 away from EverBank Stadium, a spotless mark that includes consecutive victories against Atlanta and Buffalo in London last month.

The Jaguars have covered eight straight road games, the longest road ATS winning streak by any team since the 2016-17 Chiefs covered nine straight road games. It is the longest road ATS winning streak in franchise history.

The Jaguars have covered five straight games when the line is between +3 and -3 (3-0 ATS this season).

The Browns are 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10 games following a loss.

The Browns are 5-1 ATS at home this season with unders going 5-0-1.

GO WITH CLEVELAND -3 over Jacksonville

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CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -5 (37.5)
12/10 | 1:00 p.m. ET | FOX | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Money Line: Carolina Panthers (+195) ; New Orleans Saints (-230)
Total: 37.5; Opened: 38.5

The Saints are 0-5 ATS at home (2-3 SU) and likely will start Jameis Winston against a very solid Panthers' defense. Carolina was very competitive in losing 21-18 at Tampa Bay under interim coach Chris Tabor, as Chuba Hubbard thrived as the lead back (25 carries, 104 yards, 2 TDs).

Over its last three games, New Orleans has allowed 6.1 yards per play, which ranks 29th. The Panthers have allowed 5.0 yards per play in that span. Carolina plays low-scoring games and this should be another, which makes grabbing the points extremely valuable.

The Saints are 0-5 ATS at home this season, only team to not cover at home this season.

The Saints are 2-9-1 ATS this season, 2nd-worst cover pct in NFL (Patriots 3-10).

The Panthers 3-8-1 ATS this season, 3rd-worst in NFL.

If Carr is leading New Orleans, the Saints are going to be a turtle on offense and he's going to be a Checkdown Charlie. If Jameis starts, there's insane upside for a Panthers defensive touchdown or a turnover to set up some points.

This will be the Panthers 13th straight game as an underdog against the Saints. They pushed in Week 2 this season, but won outright in both games last season.

Every dog has its day. This looks like it will be the Panthers' Day.

GO WITH CAROLINA +5 over New Orleans

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MINNESOTA VIKINGS -3 @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (40.5)
12/10 4:05 p.m. ET | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Money Line: Minnesota Vikings (-150) ; Las Vegas Raiders (+130)
Total: 40.5; Opened: 40.5

The Las Vegas Raiders will take on the Minnesota Vikings in a cross-conference Week 14 NFL matchup on Sunday at Allegiant Stadium. Las Vegas is 5-7 overall and 4-2 at home, while Minnesota is 6-6 overall and 4-2 on the road. Both teams are looking to snap two-game losing streaks.

The Vikings have covered four straight games when the line is between +3 and -3 (4-1 ATS this season).

Unders are 9-3 in Raiders game this season (8-2 in their past 10, 4-1 in their past five).

The Vikings are 6-0 outright and 4-1-1 ATS as road favorites under Kevin O'Connell.

PICK MINNESOTA -3 over Las Vegas

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BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -1 (48.5)
12/10 | 4:25 p.m. ET |GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Money Line: Buffalo Bills (+105) ; Kansas City Chiefs (-125)
Total: 48.5; Opened: 48.5

Buffalo is muddling along at 6-6 and outside the current playoff picture, the first time since Allen's rookie season in 2018 that the Bills were .500 or worse at this point in the season. And the Chiefs have lost three of their last five games, falling to 8-4 and suddenly looking up at Baltimore and Miami in the AFC standings.

The desperate Bills are in their current dilemma mainly because of their inability to win close games. Each of their 6 losses have been by six points or fewer, including four losses in the six games they played before getting last week off. With Dallas and Miami still scheduled, Buffalo's path back to the playoffs will be a challenging.

This is the first time a Josh Allen-Patrick Mahomes matchup has had a total in the 40's (previous low: 54). The average total in their first five meetings including playoffs is 55.0, the highest average total in any quarterback matchup in the past 35 years (minimum three meetings). Mahomes is 3-2 ATS against Allen.

The Bills are 6-0 outright after a bye under Sean McDermott (2-2-2 ATS). The Bills are 6-12-2 ATS with extra rest under McDermott.

The Chiefs are 27-13-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 under Andy Reid.

Patrick Mahomes is 20-7-1 ATS in his career when not laying at least 3.5 points including the playoffs. He is 7-2 ATS in his career when favored by 1-2.5 points.

Unlike the Bills, however, the Chiefs do not face anyone with a winning record the rest of the regular season.

TAKE BUFFALO +1 over Kansas City

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SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ON NBC
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ DALLAS COWBOYS -3.5 (52)
12/10 | 8:20 p.m. ET | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Money Line: Philadelphia Eagles (+150) ; Dallas Cowboys (-175)
Total: 52; Opened: 51.5

First place in the NFC East will be on the line when the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys collide on Sunday Night Football at AT&T Stadium. Despite last week's loss to San Francisco, the Eagles (10-2) own the best record in the league and are one game ahead of the Cowboys (9-3) in the division. A Philadelphia victory would give the Eagles a commanding two-game lead over Dallas and the head-to-head tiebreaker with just four games remaining.

The current total of 52 is the highest since Week 5. The highest total this season is 53, which was in the very first game of the season when the Lions beat the Chiefs 21-20. Each of the last six meetings has gone over the total.

The Cowboys are 8-2 ATS as favorites this season, and they are 25-10 ATS as favorites in the past three seasons.

The Eagles are 4-8 ATS as underdogs under Nick Sirianni including playoffs (4-7 ATS in regular season).

The Cowboys rolled up 406 yards in their 28-23 loss in Philadelphia, outgaining the Eagles by nearly 1 yard per play. Dallas' worst offensive performance at home this season came in a 30-10 Week 2 win over the Jets. Despite the positive injury report for Philly -- Dallas Goedert and Zach Cunningham are expected to return Sunday night.

Dallas has had extra rest and the Eagles' brutal schedule seems to have finally caught up with them. The favored home team will have more motivation to meet this challenge.

GO WITH DALLAS -3.5 to cover for the sixth straight time when hosting the Eagles.

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Good Luck! We'll Return Tomorrow to cover the Monday Night Double Header Games: See You then!