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Analysis of the last 𝟰𝟯 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝗘𝗡𝗦𝗘𝗫

🎈There were around 𝟭𝟭,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗱𝗮𝘆𝘀 in the last 43 years.

🎈Observations on positive and negative return occurrences.

𝗗𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘆 - 53% time Positive and 47% time Negative.

𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 - 56% time Positive and 44% time Negative

𝗠𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝗹𝘆 - 61% time Positive and 39% time Negative

𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗹𝘆- 64% time Positive and 36% time Negative

𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 - 72% time Positive and 28% time Negative

𝟯 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 - 89% time Positive and 11% time Negative

𝟱 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀- 96% time Positive and 4% time Negative

𝟭𝟬 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀- 100% time Positive and 0% time Negative

🎈SENSEX delivered 𝟭𝟱.𝟱% 𝗖𝗔𝗚𝗥 returns over the last 43 years.
🎈𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 dispersion (CAGR)

𝟭𝟵𝟴𝟬-𝟭𝟵𝟵𝟬 - 21.6%
𝟭𝟵𝟵𝟬-𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟬 - 14.3%
𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟬-𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟬 -17.8%
𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟬-𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟬 - 8.8%.*
2020~ 2022 - 24.8%

🎈 BSE Sensex returns 15.5%, if we add an average dividend yield of 1.4% for the last 43 years.

At 16.9% compounding the value of BSE is actually around 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟴𝟬,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹.🚀

🎈Longest 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 was from 1994 to 2003. 9 years in total.

🎈 Since 2002, in the last 18 years 𝗡𝗢 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗲 𝟳 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀.

This means since 2002 if you ever invested and kept money for a minimum period of 7 years then you would have 𝗻𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆.

🎈 But what is most surprising and rewarding has been the performance of actively managed equity funds. Here are the data:

𝗖𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗼𝗿𝘆𝘄𝗶𝘀𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝟮𝟬 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 (𝗖𝗔𝗚𝗥)

𝗛𝘆𝗯𝗿𝗶𝗱 - 15.96%
𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗲𝗱 -16.25%
𝗘𝗟𝗦𝗦 - 18.20%
**𝗔𝗹𝗹 𝗙𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀 - 16.41%*

** excluding LIC/JM/Taurus/Quant MF schemes.

🎈𝗦𝗘𝗡𝗦𝗘𝗫 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝟯𝟴𝟬𝟬 𝗶𝗻 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟵𝟵𝟲 (𝟮𝟲 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸).

In the last 26 years, average-ex MF delivered 18% CAGR.

Had Sensex delivered as much as average MF schemes then the value of BSE Sensex should have been:

At 16.4% CAGR, SENSEX should be around 1,70,000 levels
At 18% CAGR, SENSEX should be around 2,38,000 levels.

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https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/pre-budget-rally-has-begun-in-sugar-fertilizers-and-metal-stocks-rameshver-dongre/articleshow/96660306.cms

Pre Budget rally has begun in sugar, fertilizers and metal stocks: Rameshver Dongre In an interview with ETMarkets, Dongre said: “Domestic equity indices have bounced back sharply from its recent low, and now it may be on track to set new records if the finance minister meets expectations of the investors like to cut the long-term capital gain tax on equity, reduce GST,” Edited...

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