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Abhishek Goenka shares his view on Rupee at ET NOW

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Abhishek Goenka Nitika Bansal Anurag Murarka Shilpa Bhardwaj Purav Radia Nikhil Sippy
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Rupee set to test fresh lows as dispels hopes of softer Fed
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According to IFA Global’s founder and CEO Abhishek Goenka, following Powell’s speech, the markets are in a 70 per cent chance of a 75-basis point hike by the Fed in September; the benchmark US interest rate is being seen at 3.80 per cent by March 2023. The Reserve has raised interest rates by 225 basis points, so far, in 2022 and the benchmark rate currently stands at 2.25-2.50 per cent.

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The rupees journey from 40 to 80 per dollar, Abhishek Goenka, Founder and CEO of IFA Global

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Are you ready to manage foreign exchange in a VUCA world?

Only 1-Day to go, Hurry up!

IFA Global invites you to our "Managing FX & Treasury in this VUCA World" webinar on 15th July 2022 at 4:30 PM.

Speaker:
Mr. Abhishek Goenka (Founder & CEO - IFA Global)

Who will benefit: MD, CEO, CFO, Treasurers, Exporters & Importers

Feel free to forward the invite to your associations and friends who could benefit from this program.

Registration Link for the Webinar: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/2816563052607/WN_XPpVDcz7SGKv091__Ns6bA

(After registration, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar).

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Team IFA Global - Treasury Partner you can Trust wishes Shilpa Bhardwaj a very happy birthday.

We wish him all the success and happiness in the world.

Abhishek Goenka Nitika Bansal Anurag Murarka Purav Radia Kamaljeet Singh Sokhi Swapnajit Banerjee Bushra Shaikh Nikhil Sippy Chandani Khan

IFA Global invites you to our "Managing FX & Treasury in this VUCA World" webinar on 15th July 2022 at 4:30 PM.

Speaker:
Mr. Abhishek Goenka (Founder & CEO - IFA Global)

Who will benefit: MD, CEO, CFO, Treasurers, Exporters & Importers

Feel free to forward the invite to your associations and friends who could benefit from this program.

Registration Link for the Webinar: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/2816563052607/WN_XPpVDcz7SGKv091__Ns6bA

(After registration, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar).

Limited Seats. Register in advance.

Please share this invite with your close community of Treasurer, CFO, CEO, YPO, and EO members.

Regards
IFA Global
+91 9820283868

The overall sentiment of the in the month of June 2022 continued to remain negative for the sixth straight month as the Indian rupee depreciated by 1.71%.

The Indian rupee has been volatile for the past few months due to persistent FII outflows by foreign investors and the broad strengthening after committed to aggressive policy tightening to contain the 40-year high inflation. The foreign have started to take their flight towards the safe haven which led to aggressive selling seen in the emerging market. The overall depreciation witnessed by the Indian rupee since January 2022 has been more than 6% now, however, the overall strengthening gained by the dollar since the corresponding time has been nearly 9%. The intervention in the currency helped the Indian rupee to cap the major losses. The RBI's actions in the onshore forwards market have led premiums to crash sharply with the 1-year annualized forward premium below 3%, wiping out carry trade gains and pressuring the spot Indian rupee price to go further low. More rate are expected not just from the US Fed but other major central as well. The higher crude oil prices will continue to pressure the rupee and FII outflows will continue due to the risk aversion in the market which will lead to further of the rupee. The Fed is aggressively raising interest rates to slow demand at a time when the economy remains constrained by ongoing supply chain issues.

Going forward, the pair is likely to trade in a range of 77.90 – 80.00 in July 2022 with a neutral to a bullish bias. The USDINR pair is expected to trade with an upside bias on the back of elevated crude oil prices and persistent foreign outflows from the domestic market due to risk aversion and broad dollar strengthening. The focus will be on the unemployment rate and nonfarm data which will decide the dollar dynamics.

IFA Global invites you to our webinar on "Managing FX & Treasury in this VUCA World" on 15th July 2022 at 4:30 PM.

Speaker:
Mr. Abhishek Goenka (Founder & CEO - IFA Global)

Who will benefit: MD, CEO, CFO, Treasurers, Exporters & Importers

Feel free to forward the invite to your associations and friends who could benefit from this program.

Registration Link for the Webinar: https://zcu.io/xFo5

(After registration, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar).

Limited Seats. Register in advance.

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The sought to stave off a resurgent sovereign-debt crisis with the promise of a new tool to curb , winning some respite just as investors shifted focus to an impending increase by the Fed. Despite the distraction of a big Fed decision driving financial- and ECB officials’ insistence that no tool was needed yet, speculation on forced their hand to act at a hastily convened emergency meeting. First trailed as deliberations on the deployment of a first defense using from their pandemic emergency bond purchase program, the discussion widened to the development of a broader strategy. Officials ultimately declared that they will speed up the completion of the design of a new anti-fragmentation instrument. It’s not clear what timetable the ECB has in mind. Last week, pledged to stop bond purchases on July 1, and to deliver interest-rate increases at a decision three weeks later and in September. A different tool to address market stress would open a new chapter in the ECB’s relationship with , which has been fractious ever since debt-laden first succumbed to turmoil more than a decade ago. Officials have repeated recently that they’re ready to devise new instruments as required, but have disappointed with a lack of detail on their plans.

Mr. Abhishek Goenka shared his interesting view on Rupee Outlook in ET Markets.

The rupee could weaken to 79/USD level despite bouts of RBI intervention

Read more at: https://zcu.io/ZoXD

Rupee could weaken to 79/USD level despite bouts of RBI intervention The US inflation print surprised the market by hitting a 40-year high and intensified the fear that the US Fed will be more aggressive in the FOMC meeting scheduled later this week.

The benchmark spiked yesterday to nearly a three-and-a-half year high, just ahead of the 's bi-monthly policy announcement. Market participants are apprehensive of the quantum of the MPC is set to deliver tomorrow. The benchmark bond yielded 7.50%, the highest level since January 11, 2019, show data compiled by ETIG. During today's trading session, benchmark yield rose to 7.538%. remains elevated at about $120 per barrel although the group of producing countries last week decided to increase production in July and August. This raises India's bill as New Delhi is a major importer of the motor fuel. Globally, countries are experiencing a record surge in consumer prices pulling down growth. The RBI, being part of a global central bank chorus to rein in , is certain to raise the policy interest rate this week, according to poll. But the amount of increase is uncertain because it factors in moving parts like , government action on taxes and the impact of monsoon on food-grain output to predict future prices. The policy could be increased by 25-50 bps, taking the rate at which the RBI lends to banks to as high as 4.9% from the current 4.4%, suggests the poll.

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to Intex South Asia 2017 - Sri Lanka
Mr. Abhishek Goenka - CEO & Founder, IFA Global presented on Global FX Risk Management Practices for the Technical Textile industries at the Intex South Asia 2017, held on the 16th November at Colombo, Sri Lanka

The sold a net of $20.1 billion to defend the rupee in March, showed data from the central bank's latest bulletin. According to comparative data available on , this is the highest net sale of since 2012, when the data became available. In March, the RBI also conducted a sell/buy swap auction worth $5 billion to elongate the maturity of its . While the Reserve Bank of India did not specify, this sale would likely have also been reflected in the foreign currency sales data for the month. Even if the amount is excluded, the foreign currency sales by the RBI in March are the highest since the data became available. The sales came as the weakened amid foreign fund outflows. The typically sells foreign currency to smoothen the rupee's fall, particularly during times of .

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The RBI seems to have sold (dollars) spot and cut long forward positions," said Abhishek Goenka, founder, and CEO at IFA Global "Ultimately, we may see no reflection in the reserves. Hence we have seen substantial fall in the forward premiums since Friday

Read more at:
https://zcu.io/MZzU

Battling the worst outbreak since it emerged in Wuhan two years ago, China acknowledged that its was hit by the Omicron variant leading to lockdowns of several cities as data showed the economy shrank dramatically in April, with warning that the decline is yet to bottom out. struggled to deal with the Omicron variant in the last few months resulting in of several cities including its business hub Shanghai besides the capital , which is currently under semi-lockdown. Officials in Shanghai announced that they will gradually open up , from June 1, ending a two-month lockdown that brought the business-industrial hub to a grinding halt. The lockdowns were meanwhile impacting the which is reeling under the Ukraine war and trade tensions with the and the EU. Major indicators measuring China’s economy fell short of expectations with industrial production, retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and the surveyed jobless rate falling to their weakest levels in more than two years. The economy is expected to improve in May with the accelerating resumption of work and production in Shanghai and Jilin as well as the implementation of pro-growth measures.