The North Africa Journal

Meet the possible next foreign minister of France

has a new Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, who is now tasked with forming a government. One of the most important posts is that of Foreign Minister. Our colleagues at MondAfrique tell us that Rachida Dati, the former Minister of Culture in Gabriel Attal’s government, is being considered for that job.

Her name has been circulating alongside others, such as Manuel Valls, as potential candidates for this key diplomatic role. Dati has been a top official in the French government for a long time, including Justice Minister in 2007.

If becomes Foreign Minister, it would be worth watching how she would deal with France’s North Africa policy and how she would navigate the thorny relations between and . This is because while her allegiance will first be for France, Dati’s father is Moroccan and her mother Algerian, seemingly putting her in a tough position.

However, it is clear that Dati’s positions on various issues dealing with the Maghreb, generally favor Morocco. She has been a staunch supporter of Morocco’s Western Sahara claim and on Morocco’s fight with Algeria over cultural appropriation claims, such as the dress, the , etc.

While PM Barnier is still looking for a Foreign Minister, he will have to figure out how Dati could be a positive or negative force on the country’s diplomatic front. Will she be working to ease tensions or add more fuel to the fire?

Morocco: First case reported in Marrakech, health authorities activate emergency protocols:

With dense ties to , now has its first Mpox case, identified in the tourism city of . This marks the first case in North Africa, prompting an immediate activation of emergency protocols and a damage-control communication strategy coming from that seeks to appease concerns and calls for calm. Among the actions taken by Morocco’s public health authorities has been to speed up contact tracing to prevent contagion, and ironically, the cancelling of a conference on public health. More here:

Morocco: First Mpox case reported in Marrakech, health authorities activate emergency protocols - The North Africa Journal With dense ties to West Africa, Morocco now has its first Mpox case, identified in the tourism city of Marrakech.

Mali: Wagner and Junta leaders in tough spot with series of embarrassing defeats and decisions to make:

This week’s attacks on the capital of highlight the junta’s difficulty in providing basic security for the country and its inability to degrade terror groups. They also signal further challenges the junta may face in the coming weeks and months. The attacks can be seen as a message to the junta, showing they are no longer out of reach, despite being protected by Russian mercenaries, many of whom were killed in these attacks.

JNIM, which has been increasing its activities both within and beyond Mali’s borders, sent a clear signal to junta chief Assimi Goita and his allies, including Wagner Group mercenaries. While the junta has largely focused on waging war against the Tuaregs in the central and northern regions, terror groups have intensified their campaign of death and destruction. Their main aim now appears to be targeting the Malian regime within its own capital.

While Russia has been steady in its support of the Malian junta, the killing in Bamako of many Russians this week, combined with the disastrous outcome of the Tinzouaten clash that saw dozens of Russian casualties, have reportedly raised concerns in Moscow. The situation in Mali is beginning to look unwinnable for Russia, echoing its experience in northern Mozambique, where Wagner Group suffered an embarrassing defeat and was forced to withdraw. A similar scenario may now be unfolding in Mali. More on what's happening in Mali is here:

Mali: Wagner and Junta leaders in tough spot with series of embarrassing defeats and decisions to make - The North Africa Journal This week’s attacks on the Malian capital of Bamako highlight the junta's difficulty in providing basic security for the country and its inability to degrade terror groups. They also signal further challenges the junta may face in the coming weeks and months. The attacks can be seen as a message t...

Sahel: Lost Men in , but Russia Sees Real ROI in the Sahel. It May Now Make a Move on Nigeria

is seeing a good “return on its investment” in the Sahel. Both and have cut their ties with after Kyiv’s intelligence agency GUR said it was involved in the clash at the end of July that claimed the lives of dozens of Russian mercenaries and Malian soldiers in northern Mali. It is expected that will also take a similar decision in the days to come, as this country is part of the coalition of the three Sahelian nations that seek to coordinate defense policy and diplomacy. is also not happy with Ukraine. As this is happening in the Sahel, something concerning is taking place inside , which suggests 's growing interest in one of Africa's biggest country. Continue here:

Sahel: Wagner Lost Men in Tinzouatin, but Russia Sees Real ROI in the Sahel. It May Now Make a Move on Nigeria - The North Africa Journal Russia is seeing a good "return on its investment" in the Sahel. Both Mali and Niger have cut their ties with Ukraine, and Burkina Faso may follow suit.

Update: Dozens of Russian Militiamen Killed by Tuareg Rebels in Mali, MondAfrique:

Our colleagues of Mondafrique have released the following update. With its unmatched connections in the and , Mondafrique is one of the best sources of information on the region.

Fierce fighting that raged until Saturday at the - border ended in a victory for the Tuareg rebel groups over the Malian forces supported by Wagner, as reported on Sunday. After the humiliation of losing their stronghold last November, the fighters of the Permanent Strategic Framework for the Defense of the People (CSP-DPA), the new name of the and Moorish independence coalition, dealt a crushing defeat to their enemies, especially to the Russian auxiliaries of the Malian army, who were the most numerous among the casualties, according to eyewitnesses and numerous images. Continue here:

Update: Dozens of Russian Militiamen Killed by Tuareg Rebels in Mali - The North Africa Journal Our colleagues of Mondafrique have released the following update. With its unmatched connections in the Sahel and West Africa, Mondafrique is one of the best sources of information on the region. Mondafrique: Fierce fighting that raged until Saturday at the Algeria-Mali border ended in a victory for...

Sahel: Tension over unfulfilled Niger fuel delivery to Mali:

Niger is the new energy producing hub in the and as such, it is providing hope for other nations in its neighborhood that their energy problems would be eased given 's hydrocarbon reserves. Niger already has a deal to supply Mali. But there has been a significant delay in the delivery of fuel and hydrocarbons to neighboring . The latter, more precisely its main energy firm Energie Du Mali (EDM) has already spent money to procure more than 150 million liters of fuel. Niger already received some 1 billion CFA Francs, or nearly US$1.8 million, to deliver the precious liquid. But Mali was recently told to wait indefinitely. While Niger has that fuel in its depots, it has become apparent that it has chosen to prioritize instead, despite promises of more cooperation among the three Sahel juntas of Mali, Niger and . Mali is now upset about this situation and is threatening to revisit the contract should Niger continue to drag its feet. Source: MEA Risk LLC's Critical Incidents Tracker.

Egypt: Efforts at a National Dialogue Undermined by an Unhinged Political Police

is sending mix signals on its practices. Some in ’s political system are trying hard to project the image of an Egypt complying with international human rights standards, but the security apparatus remains active in undermining those efforts and is instead worsening the country’s image.

In a matter of a few days, we saw two very contradictory decisions that are telling about the intentions of the ruling class in Cairo. On the one hand, there was the release of 79 people who have been held in pre-trial detention, giving the wrong impression that the leadership has Egypt’s human rights interest in minds. On the other hand, cartoonists and journalists continue to be terrorized by the security services and the political police, judging by the arrest of a cartoonist and a journalist. These events are indicative of continued use of tactics meant to intimidate people who hold different views than those of the political leaders and those in the military and the political police.

The details are here: https://north-africa.com/a7aq including the cartoon that sent Ashraf Omar to prison.

Egypt: Efforts at a National Dialogue Undermined by an Unhinged Political Police - The North Africa Journal Egypt is sending mix signals on its human rights records. Some in Cairo’s political system are trying hard to project the image of an Egypt complying with international human rights standards, but the security apparatus remains active in undermining those efforts and is instead worsening the count...

Tunisia: Study Reveals Harsh Conditions for Migrants in North Africa as they Seek Path to Italy

Harsh Conditions for Migrants in North Africa as they Seek a Path to Italy

Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, has been active in seeking the participation of nations to stop the flow of undocumented migrants moving into Europe and Italy in particular. This is a hot topic that has been a concern among politicians and large swaths of the Italian population. And now data is here to support the concerns of . A recent survey found that nearly 80% of migrants in Tunisia are exclusively interested in migrating to Italy. The finding may be intuitive given the geographical location of Tunisia and its proximity to Italy, but it also reflects that fact that Tunisia and the rest of the region are not seen as the final destination for most migrants. Migrants say their struggles in Tunisia makes Italy inevitably more attractive. Continue here:

Tunisia: Study Reveals Harsh Conditions for Migrants in North Africa as they Seek Path to Italy - The North Africa Journal Nearly 80% of migrants in Tunisia are exclusively interested in migrating to Italy. The finding may be intuitive given the geographical location of Tunisia and its proximity to Italy, but it also reflects that fact that Tunisia is not seen as the final destination for most migrants. Migrants say the...

Flurry of Major Infrastructure and Energy Projects in West :

is experiencing record temperatures, and yet, despite the debilitating climate, infrastructure projects continue to roll out regardless. In this article, available free this week, we look at how and are committing big investments in and , from building new railroad networks and expanding highways, to creating electricity from renewable sources to boosting production of fossil fuel. Follow this link (https://lnkd.in/eCK2r65s), access is free: https://north-africa.com/flurry-of-major-infrastructure-and-energy-projects-in-west-maghreb/

Brief: Sahel Juntas Confirm their Rejection of ECOWAS

Established in 1975, the Economic Community of West African States or had 15 members, three of which have recently called it quits. Three may not sound significant but it is, considering that others are not too happy with the way the organization operates and how it’s controlled. Furthermore, the three countries that left the grouping, namely , and represent a substantial size of the Ecowas geography, one that links West and Central Africa to North Africa.

The reasons for such an exit are many, starting with the fact that Ecowas leaders do not like the new juntas that violently took power in the three countries mentioned above. Then, Ecowas enacted a series of punitive actions against the three to pressure them to return to “democratic” principles. That did not work. But the three, and my voices in the region, are convinced that Ecowas is being used by foreign powers, in particular France, as a means to influence this part of Africa. This past weekend, the three Sahel nations reaffirmed that they want nothing to do with Ecowas. Well, that’s what the junta leaders say, anyway.

Is there a chance for Ecowas to implode? Yes if it does not undertake substantial reform and give some guarantee that decisions are not made in foreign capitals on its behalf. Source: https://north-africa.com/nedu

Friends,

Good morning from Boston.

I think most of us have been distracted by all these taking place almost everywhere. It turns out, over 50 nations have already held or will hold elections this year (2024). Some big ones are behind us now: with its first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum. with the return to the presidency of a weakened Cyril Ramaphosa. There were snap elections, such as the two ones that got me glued to news outlets: and the . Some institutions also held their own elections, notably the Parliament which saw the anti-EU, right-wing populist parties gain momentum. This is ironic but I guess this confirms the proverb that says: “if you cannot beat them, join them.”

I admit France and the UK drew my attention a lot. The magnitude of the loss of the Conservatives in the UK was dramatic. But France was more important to me since I have a sister and two nephews living there and even my 80-year-old mother who lives in expressed her fears. It was cute but very serious because my mother says her kids are the typical people that the far-right has been targeting. In both cases, there was some degree of entertainment. And then the mighty upcoming elections. Don’t get me started, there is plenty of time until November to observe, get stressed, and get entertained.

None of that will happen in . Two countries in the region already held presidential elections, and , which saw the strengthening of the power of their presidents, General Sisi in Egypt and General Ghaznaoui in Mauritania.

Two super boring elections are coming in fall, that of Algeria in September and in October. But, please do not hold your breath, both are already decided, even though those who are guaranteed to win have not yet declared their intention to run. But they will.

If interested in the details, follow this link. Access is free: https://north-africa.com/pl06

Drought Disrupts Wheat Sector in Morocco, Uncertainty with French and Russian Supplies

’s harvest this year is likely to fall below 2.5 million tons due to a debilitating and lasting that has affected much of the country. To put it into perspective, during the wet season, output can reach up to 10 million tons. Industry analysts warn that grain production in Morocco this year will drop by 39% compared to the 2023’s harvest of 4.2 million tons. The government is now forced to lean more on imports. From January to April 2024, Morocco’s wheat imports already amounted to 1.84 million tons. While remains the leader as grains supplier to Morocco, is stepping in to undermine the French dominance. However, both are facing problems of their own, as both will see a drop in their own productions: a drought in Russia and too much rain and not enough sunshine in France. So what's the outlook? Not too great. How will Morocco maintain normal supply of wheat to households and consumers who will not agree on price increases? And as we saw in Kenya two weeks ago, the government in Morocco should be concerned for the potential of bread riots if the market faces shortages or price increases. Analysis here: https://north-africa.com/fo67

Egypt Gets Massive Injections of Cash, but Outlook is Still Shaky

has many powerful allies, including those in the global financial sector. No one wants to see it collapse, so money is flowing in a-go-go. Despite a dismal economic performance, global rating agencies, which acknowledge that Egypt is a huge risk, have been relatively lenient with the North African nation. With the lingering impact of on the economy, a war in , another in , and disruptive in Yemen affecting global supply routes, including the , global financial institutions continue to support Egypt’s finances almost at any cost. Undoubtedly, the country is strategic for many global players, and its instability would have major destabilizing effects not just on the region but on the entire global economy. Hence, its backers need to be creative to ensure a consistent flow of cash into Egypt.

In its latest review, Fitch Ratings scored Egypt B-, essentially concluding that Egypt’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR is highly speculative with notable risks. However, thanks to foreign support—namely the financial aid from various sources—and whatever reforms the Sisi government is undertaking, Fitch still considers the country able to meet its financial commitments, for the time being. Similarly, Moody’s Investors Service holds the same position. It assigned Egypt a credit borrowing risk of Caa1, considering it a speculative destination with a very high credit risk. However, just like Fitch, Moody’s added that Egypt is currently meeting its financial commitments. And that’s enough for lenders to release more cash.’

So where is the money coming from and what is it being used for? What will the Sisi regime do with the cash and will that solve the structural problems facing one the Arab world's most important nations? Continue here: https://north-africa.com/q9ro

How to ‘Make Europe Great Again’ (MEGA)

In the second week of June 2024, -right parties across the made significant gains in the Parliament elections. In , the National Rally led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, secured nearly a third of the votes, forcing President Emmanuel to dissolve the National Assembly and call for snap elections.

Far-right gains affected most major European nations, such as and . And France is the country that North Africans and others in the continent tend to follow the most. That country’s historical, social and economic ties with the and beyond, make it the most debated topic among North Africans, both among regular folks and governments. So much so that that even my 80-year-old mother, who lives in Algiers expressed her concern. I found her concern somehow cute, but then again her daughter (my sister) and two grandchildren live in Paris, and she fears a backlash from the right is coming. Continue reading here: https://north-africa.com/df1x

Africa’s Defense Shifting from Western to Russian Influence:

A lot of -related events are taking place in the and other parts of . First, a quick update on US troop withdrawal from . US defense officials are saying the pullout is happening as scheduled and without any glitches. There are currently some 600 US military personnel in Niger, all of whom should exist the country no later than September 15, 2024.

Meanwhile, fearing a repeat of its troops being expelled as it happened in , and , the Macron administration in is planning a draw down of troops from , , Côte d’Ivoire, and . This is while has been working hard to increase its influence on the continent. A defense agreement was signed last week in Mali, paving the way for more Russian military engagement both in Mali and elsewhere on the continent. Continue here for the details:

Africa's Defense Shifting from Western to Russian Influence - The North Africa Journal There are some 600 US troops left in Niger, whose withdrawal is set to no later than September 2024. Meanwhile the French are expected to continue to withdraw more of their troops from Africa, and we could see the Russians move in.

Egypt's Demographic Time Bomb

This month of June 2024, the population reached the record number 106.4 million people. Egyptians added 126,000 babies in just one month. For some reference, the Egyptian population is bigger than the 102 million North Africans of the combined nations of , , and .

Dividing this by 30 days, fetches 4,200 babies per day. The government of does not like this trend because this time-bomb has multiple implications, starting with the need for more resources to feed, house, school and provide healthcare services and jobs. Continue reading here for free. You can also access the analysis with your LinkedIn credentials: https://north-africa.com/5k0q

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For our subscribers:

How is Confronted with New Security Concerns
Sahel: Faso Junta Faces Governance Challenges Amid Controversies and Rumors
Sahel: French company loses operating license of key uranium site in

Check NAJ's front page to access these articles: https://North-Africa.com

Tunisia’s political system is still compromised, but the economy is showing some signs of minimal recovery. However, one area that is contributing to the inability of decision makers to react to changes and challenges in the economy is the time it takes for economic data to be released....

Tunisia's weak economic performance compounded by late data release - The North Africa Journal Tunisia’s political system is still compromised, but the economy is showing some signs of minimal recovery. However, one area that is contributing to the inability of decision makers to react to changes and challenges in the economy is the time it takes for economic data to be released.

The Kaftan or Caftan, is now source of new tension between Morocco and Algeria. The two countries have been monitoring each other’s moves to pinpoint and complain about “cultural appropriation” when it comes to food, traditional graphics designs, arts and now robes. Morocco has been the most vocal in this competition for culture and the Kaftan in on its radar screen. Wikipedia says the origins of the Kaftan are unknow but “it is believed to have first appeared in ancient Mesopotamia. Wikipedia adds that “originating in Asia, it has been worn by a number of cultures around the world for thousands of years,” including in Russia....

Algeria-Morocco: The Dividing Kaftan - The North Africa Journal The Kaftan or Caftan, is now source of new tension between Morocco and Algeria. The two countries have been monitoring each other’s moves to pinpoint and complain about “cultural appropriation” when it comes to food, traditional graphics designs, arts and now robes.

By Arezki Daoud: Since 2011, Libya has been engulfed in a bloody civil war after the death of Muammar Gaddafi. Over the years, it was easy to identify the problem: too many foreign regional players and global powers meddling in Libya’s affairs, explicitly or implicitly seeking to impose their vision on what Libya ought to be through local proxies. These foreign meddlers had no shortage of proxies within Libya....

Libya’s Abnormal New Normal By Arezki Daoud: Since 2011, Libya has been engulfed in a bloody civil war after the death of Muammar Gaddafi. Over the years, it was easy to identify the problem: too many foreign regional player…

The departure of the French and American troops from Niger created an opportunity for the Russians to replace them. The Russians’ objective is to clearly counter the west and reduce its influence in the Sahel, West Africa and elsewhere on the African continent. The French have naturally been the first to experience trouble with the Sahel. Their exit from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger was greeted with anger in Paris against Moscow, which is seen as the real architect of the French withdrawal from the Sahel....

Niger: More Russian Weapons and Military Instructors Land in Niamey The departure of the French and American troops from Niger created an opportunity for the Russians to replace them. The Russians’ objective is to clearly counter the west and reduce its influence i…

By Arezki Daoud: France is experiencing an unprecedented backlash in the Sahel and in West Africa. Disastrous post-colonial policies forced the people of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso to expel French troops and diplomats, reducing Paris' entrenched but counterproductive influence in the region. Now, France is also concerned about Senegal, which remains, with Ivory Coast, the last two most reliable allies of Paris in West Africa....

Senegal in the Center of Another Geopolitical Fight By Arezki Daoud: France is experiencing an unprecedented backlash in the Sahel and in West Africa. Disastrous post-colonial policies forced the people of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso to expel Fren…