Edward Jones-Financial Advisor: Dustin Fisher

Last week investors received some encouraging news on inflation, which has been the number one concern over the past 18 months. But as inflation and Fed worries are starting to ease, debt ceiling concerns are poised to intensify. We offer our thoughts on the implications from the latest inflation reading and the debt ceiling standoff in our latest Weekly Market Wrap.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

This past week, markets were faced with a triple whammy of data: A Federal Reserve interest rate hike, ongoing turmoil in the banking system and a key jobs report for April. After raising interest rates by over 5.0% in just over a year, the Fed may finally be considering a pause in its rate-hiking campaign.

But the long and variable lags of interest rate increases may already be impacting the real economy. Nonetheless, while market volatility remains likely after a nice rally to the start of the year, we do see opportunities forming in both stocks and bonds as the extended bear market period yields to a potential bull market phase by year-end. Learn more on why we think this in our latest Weekly Market Wrap.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

The old market adage "sell in May and go away" may have a ring to it, but is it actually valid advice? Unsurprisingly, the answer is no. First, rhymes are not a reliable basis for portfolio decisions. And second, while vacation season is approaching, disciplined investing is a year-round event.

Although the saying relates to the (antiquated) notion that the stock market is weaker during the summer, we don't think seasonal portfolio changes are sensible. Nevertheless, as we turn the calendar to May, recent market moves and historical perspective are informative, offering some additional information on the outlook this year. Check out our latest Weekly Market Wrap.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Amid a flurry of corporate earnings releases and somewhat lackluster market activity last week, an important milestone went largely unnoticed. It was about six months ago that the S&P 500 dipped below 3600 (down 25% from its high), core inflation accelerated to a 40-year high at 6.6% and 10-year yields spiked to 4.25%.

Since then, markets have been climbing the proverbial wall of worry. We use the six-month milestone as an opportunity to reflect on what continues to support the rebound, what does not and share our thoughts on what the path ahead might look like in our Weekly Market Wrap.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Markets have been intensely focused on inflation over the past year, with the central bank policy response serving as the primary influence on stock and bond performance. So last week's release of the March inflation data offered a much-anticipated look at the latest trend in consumer prices, with markets breathing a small sigh of relief as the data signaled inflation remains on its gradual downward path.

In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we evaluate the most recent inflation and consumer spending trends and share our take on the implications for interest rates and the economy ahead.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

As we head into the second quarter of 2023, the strength in the market this year so far has been notable. The S&P 500 is up about 6.0%, while the investment-grade bond market is up a healthy 4.5%. Keep in mind, though, that recent gains in stocks were largely driven by valuation expansion, as price-to-earnings ratios climbed higher.

Despite these healthy market gains, the path forward in the near term may be challenging, especially as the economy weakens and potentially enters a mild recession. Nonetheless, for long-term investors, there may be opportunities forming in the months ahead, particularly as markets start to look past the economic slowdown toward a recovery period. Read more in our Weekly Market Wrap.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Despite a spike in volatility and an almost 8% pullback from the year's high, equities ended the month of March and the first quarter higher. In our Weekly Market Wrap, we share thoughts on what's behind the market's resilience and discuss the key factors we'll be monitoring that have the potential to shape the narrative in the months ahead.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

In just over two weeks, the uncertainty in the U.S. regional and global banking system has notably altered the path of financial markets and potentially the path of the Federal Reserve. For the Fed, it now has a balancing act to navigate – supporting the banking system with liquidity on one hand and battling inflation with interest rate increases on the other. In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we discuss how we see opportunities forming in both the equity and bond space in the months ahead, beyond the more recent defensive posturing, as markets start to look past the economic downturn and toward a recovery ahead.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Pressures on the banking sector were front and center last week, with headlines taking markets on a roller coaster ride. Though anxieties could persist for a while, we don’t think they'll morph into a structural crisis. Nevertheless, the pressure on the sector serves as a reminder that restrictive policy tends to uncover vulnerabilities that are lurking in the financial system.

At the anniversary of the Fed's most aggressive rate-hiking campaign in four decades, the recent bank troubles could potentially mark a turning point in monetary policy. In our weekly market update, we offer some perspective on what last week's developments mean for interest rates, the economy and the markets.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Renewed stock market swings continued last week in response to the latest developments in the outlook for Fed policy and employment conditions. A two-day congressional testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell dampened the market's mood as he emphasized the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation, signaling additional rate hikes ahead. The February jobs report grabbed the spotlight by week's end as markets looked to the latest employment trends for clues on the health of the economy.

There's plenty of information to digest, but it's important for investors to keep an eye on the broader view. While this current bear market has lasted longer than average, stocks are holding on to solid gains so far in 2023. We think the maturity of this bear market should also be viewed as progress toward what we expect will be a more sustainable recovery as we progress through the year. In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we take a look at the current investment conditions, how they compare to history and what all of this tells us about the potential road ahead.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

After a strong start to the year, market volatility seems to have returned. While we would expect market volatility to continue near-term, we are also watching for key inflection points that may indicate the early innings of a more sustainable rally ahead. We highlight three potential conditions that we believe would support better market returns longer term: 1) inflation moving lower, 2) the Federal Reserve pausing its rate-hiking cycle, and 3) earnings revisions bottoming.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

After a strong and steady rally to start 2023, markets have seen a return of volatility of late, including a decline last week spurred by renewed concerns over further interest rate hikes from the Fed. This is not a new issue, but it has prompted markets to reevaluate expectations for the economy ahead. No two cycles are exactly the same, but we do think there are noteworthy similarities between current conditions and those in the 2001 bear market.

In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we discuss the parallels with the past and what they suggest about what might lay ahead for investors.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Last week's jump in U.S. retail sales together with January's blowout jobs report paint the picture of an exceptionally strong economy. This backdrop is hardly what one would expect from an economy that is still navigating inflationary pressures and the most aggressive central bank tightening cycle in four decades. Which begs the question, does the Fed need to do more? The bond market appears to think so, but equities remain unfazed.

Given what we learned last week, we share our thoughts on how the market narrative might evolve and how some of the existing market tensions might be resolved.

• The market rally this year has been impressive. Most asset classes have participated, and the laggards of last year have particularly outperformed. These outperformers include technology, small-cap stocks, international equities, and even more speculative parts of the market.
• However, last week some uncertainty and volatility returned to markets. The S&P 500 was down over 1.0% on the week, its worst week of the year thus far. Treasury bond yields also moved higher, while oil prices climbed as well. Markets may be now approaching more of a fork in the road – does the rally continue or does it fade from here?

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

After a year in which nothing seemed to go investors' way, 2023 has, so far, been the polar opposite. Stocks are up handsomely while interest rates are down markedly. Last week brought a heavy dose of fresh information on each of the three central drivers for the market this year: the Fed, the jobs market and corporate profits. The outcome was another up week for the market, and while this recent rally is both welcome and reasonable, we don't think it should be viewed as confirmation that the coast is clear. In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we share our thoughts on several popular market takes and what last week tells us about the path ahead.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Markets are off to a good start in 2023, but this comes on the heels of an extremely challenging 2022, in which both stocks and bonds logged declines for the year, something that hasn't occurred since 1994. There's good news for investors, however, as history shows down years for the stock market have typically been followed by healthy gains. While the clouds have not completely cleared, we think there are reasons to be optimistic. In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we examine what often happens after down years for the market and what it could mean for the year ahead.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

After a positive start to the year in markets – in part driven by a better inflation narrative in the U.S. and globally – this past week investor sentiment seemed to turn somewhat lower. Equity markets turned negative mid-week after economic data pointed to a weaker U.S. consumer and manufacturing sector. Take a closer look at the rest of our key takeaways.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

The U.S. headline CPI eased further, with December marking the smallest annual increase since October 2021. Paired with the November and October data, core inflation has now slowed for three consecutive months, suggesting that a pattern of disinflation is emerging. Price pressures remain too high for the Fed's comfort, but the gradual cooling likely sets the stage for the Fed to downshift further in the pace of rate hikes. Read our latest weekly market update for thoughts on what the recent data could mean for the markets and investment strategy.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

While inflation, rate hikes and geopolitical uncertainties have posed challenges for the market, the labor market has remained a bright spot. This was highlighted by the most recent payroll figures which showed that employment conditions remain quite resilient. Markets, however, took the news on the chin under the assumption that ongoing strength in the employment picture could threaten the downward path for inflation. In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we note three key takeaways from the latest jobs report and what this may mean for the financial markets in 2023.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Take a look at our weekly market update.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

2022 was a challenging year for investors as multiple headwinds hit the economy and markets. As we look ahead, we think that inflation and central bank actions will remain in the driver's seat in 2023, but conditions could start to slowly shift in a more favorable way for the markets. With investors ready to turn the page on the calendar, we review some of the milestones that defined the markets over the past 12 months and offer some perspective on how these factors could evolve in the future.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Last week, markets digested three key pieces of data – a CPI inflation reading that came in better than expected, Fed commentary that indicate their job is not done yet, and U.S. retail sales showing a consumer under pressure. Overall, while the Fed (and global central banks) remain vigilant for now, as inflation moderates and the economy softens in the months ahead, the need for peak restrictive policy may wane. We discuss five key takeaways from a busy market week in our Weekly Wrap below.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

The rally that began in mid-October stalled last week as markets have grown more anxious over the outlook for growth in in the year ahead. Nevertheless, it should not be lost that markets have staged an impressive run recently, with stocks and bonds logging solid gains over the past two months -- an important reminder for investors of the value of being opportunistic within a pessimistic market. In this installment of the Weekly Market Wrap, we take a look at a few noteworthy trends playing out underneath the market's surface that offer some potential signals about the mood of the market and possible implications for path ahead.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

The rebound in financial markets has gained steam as we navigate the final stretch of the year. Global equities recorded their first back-to-back monthly gains in over a year and investment grade bonds posted the biggest monthly gain since 2008, a reminder of the importance of maintaining a disciplined investment approach even in times of uncertainty. We draw attention to some recent trends that defy this year's narrative and provide our take on Friday's employment data.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Check out our weekly market update.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Markets took a bit of a breather this week after a strong rally higher over the last month. The focus on inflation and the impact it's having on interest rates continues to be the primary influence on market moves. But with fixed income yields now at their highest levels in 15 years, equities now have some competition, raising questions for investors around where to put their investment dollars today. We think this underscores the importance of aligning portfolio decisions with goals instead of emotions, and in this week's Market Wrap, we look at the decisions investors are facing and the opportunities that we believe lay ahead.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

The cooler-than-expected October inflation offers some relief to households, investors, and the Fed, potentially indicating that last month could be the start of a disinflationary trend. We provide our take on the recent data, along with implications for Fed policy and investment strategy.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

This week the Federal Reserve raised rates by 0.75% to bring the fed funds rate close to 4.0%. Notably, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the pace of rate hikes may slow going forward, he also emphasized that a potential pause in this rate hiking cycle is still "very premature." Markets took the message at its face value, now pricing in a terminal fed funds rate of 5.0%-5.3%, or about 1.3% more in tightening to come.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

A tug-of-war may be the most appropriate metaphor to describe last week's price action in the markets. Pulling at one end of the rope was disappointing earnings results from mega-cap tech names and more signs of economic activity softening. At the other end was growing hopes for a Fed slowdown and lower bond yields. We provide our interpretation and investment takeaways from last week's developments.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Although markets were attempting to stage a comeback last week with a nearly 4% rebound in the first two days, higher bond yields once again seemed to stifle the budding rally. For markets to mount a sustainable rebound, we would likely need to see certain conditions in place, including moderating inflation and Treasury yields peaking, neither of which are fully confirmed yet – but we may be getting closer.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

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Markets continue to be guided by the outlook for upcoming Fed rate hikes, so with the latest consumer price index report indicating that inflation is not declining as fast as hoped, stocks fluctuated widely last week. More broadly, we continue to hold the view that inflation is on a downward path, eventually allowing the Fed to ease back on restrictive policy, which we believe will be the catalyst for a more enduring market rebound. This week's Market Wrap looks at the characteristics of market downturns and the longer-term performance that follows.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

September left a bitter taste for investors as major indexes ended at a new low for the year. However, markets kicked off the new quarter on a more upbeat note, with the S&P 500 logging its biggest two-day rise since April 2020 before giving back some of those gains later in the week. Could this rebound from the lows have legs, or will it prove to be another bear market rally? We examine what the underlying conditions suggest and provide our take on the September jobs report.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Market volatility returned this week, as the S&P 500 once again slipped into bear market territory. What factors could signal a potential bottoming process in markets? While each cycle is unique, we highlight three metrics to watch in the weeks ahead: inflation, bond yields, and the U.S. dollar.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

The Fed was in focus this week with the stock market recoiling and interest rates moving higher as investors digested the prospects of more aggressive rate hikes ahead as part of the Fed's mission to bring down elevated inflation. While renewed market volatility has been challenging, our latest Weekly Market Wrap highlights the latest developments and reasons investors can be optimistic about what comes next.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Inflation remains the kryptonite for the markets as the hotter-than-expected August CPI triggered the biggest daily decline in the S&P 500 in over two years. The broad price pressures challenge the Fed to keep going and suggest that the road to the 2% target will likely be long. But there are glimmers of hope that the underlying inflation trend will likely be down in the months ahead.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Markets are often unpredictable and there have been plenty of surprises in 2022. In this week’s Market Wrap, we take a look at expectations versus reality, evaluating the trends that have played out this year and what they might signal about the path ahead.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

This past week, we saw equity markets fall, bond yields rise, and commodities sell-off as concerns around global demand heightened once more. Markets are now forecasting a 75 basis-point (0.75%) rate hike at the September FOMC meeting and a terminal fed funds rate of close to 4.0%, with any rate cut expectations removed from mid-2023 forecasts. However, while the near-term may be volatile, we see a case for markets to stabilize heading into year-end, driven by two key factors: midterm elections and a potential Fed pause by year-end.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Stocks have made a less-than-pleasant round trip this summer. Major indexes entered a bear market in June, rebounded sharply in July, and are on track to finish flat in August, returning to where they were three months ago. Because some of the worst-case-scenario risks have recently diminished, we think the direction of travel since the midsummer lows is justified. But strong headwinds to growth will remain, which is why we continue to expect a more bumpy and prolonged market recovery to the prior highs. With the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting marking the last major market event before the summer ends, we take a look at what's changed, what hasn't, and what the evolving conditions may mean for the road ahead.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

High inflation and rising interest rates have prompted recession worries, yet a healthy labor market and recent declines in prices at the pump have helped ease fears and lift the stock market recently. This week we take a look at the state of the consumer and the outlook for household spending, which will play a key role in the path ahead for the economy and markets.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.