MHR Groups

Mortgage rate averages slid to their lowest point since early February 2023, but economists are still worried about homebuyer activity.

The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage, a common loan choice for homebuyers, averaged 6.09% as of Sept. 19. That’s lower than the previous week’s average of 6.20%, and it’s more than a full percentage point lower than the comparable week this time last year when it stood at 7.19%, the mortgage giant said Thursday. It’s the seventh consecutive week that rates have averaged below 6.5%.

The 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage, another common loan option for homebuyers, also eased, averaging 5.15%. That’s lower than last week when it stood at 5.27%, and it’s lower than a year earlier when it was 6.54%.

Daily mortgage rates, often more volatile than weekly averages, had increased compared to the previous day as of Thursday afternoon. The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage stood at 6.15%, according to Mortgage News Daily, while the 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage stood at 5.65%.

That means that if a borrower took out a $250,000 mortgage on Thursday, their monthly payment would be around $1,523.

It’s a seemingly paradoxical shift because on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the first time in four years. And while mortgage rates eased in the lead up to that decision, industry professionals warned that it wouldn’t be something that created immediate, drastic changes in the mortgage market.

On top of that, the decision and subsequent press conference with officials at the central bank “was less rate-friendly than you might expect,” Matthew Graham, chief operating officer of Mortgage News Daily, wrote in a post Wednesday.

Industry hesitation
Following the Fed’s decision, consumers and industry insiders have their sights set on the future as they wait to see how much farther mortgage rates will fall.

But Graham warned that “nothing about today means much of anything for the trajectory for rates from here on out.”

Similarly, Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage, said in a statement that she expects mortgage rates will ease “through the end of the year, but not as much as people would like.” And mortgage giant Fannie Mae revised down their forecast for 2025, estimating that mortgage rates will average 5.7% by the end of next year.

Already, there’s been some movement in loan applications as prospective buyers and current homeowners are starting to take advantage of lower mortgage rates.

In the week ended Sept. 13, mortgage applications and refinance applications increased, marking the fourth consecutive week of growth in the market, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association industry group. Applications for mortgage refinances doubled compared to last year’s pace, and the number of purchase loans exceeded the comparable period last year.

“If mortgage rates remain near these levels, it will support a stronger than typical fall housing market and suggest that next spring could see a real rebound in activity,” the group’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Mike Fratantoni, said in a statement.

Even so, some economists are proceeding with caution, warning that consumer demand is still lagging behind the market movements as other factors continue to constrain housing activity.

“We think it's likely that many would-be borrowers are waiting for affordability to improve even further, and that some may be anticipating additional declines in mortgage,” Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, said in a statement Wednesday. “Others may be waiting for household incomes to improve further to offset some of the recent home price growth, or they may be thinking that future supply growth will ease affordability. Regardless of the lever, we expect affordability to remain the primary constraint on housing activity for the foreseeable future.”

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