OFR Agency

and stocks outperformed the market in 2022, while express and LTL carriers underperformed. Here's to a better year for transports in 2023.

Container prices are down to pre-covid levels.

This is driven in part by U.S. manufacturing orders in China being down 40%.

China to US East Coast Ocean Container Spot Rates down to 2018 highs

There has been a lot of talk about China to West Coast ports taking the biggest hit with rates, and east coast ports hanging on to some of their pandemic gains, however, that is now gone too.

Container spot rates from China to US East Coast ports have held up better than China to West Coast ports up until recently.
Now back at 2018 highs for China to US East and demand continuing to remain suppressed with no shortage of capacity we can expect further rate.

Container shipping costs are back to pre-pandemic levels. Is inflation over?

California is going to lose a lot of capacity with a lot of OO’s going out of business as well.

Tips for New Truck Drivers:

1. You are a professional at driving, you're top tier. Not everybody can do what you do and your position gives you ACCESS to money without having a college degree. The cleaner your license is the more valuable you are.

2. Don't be a super trucker. If you have to think twice about an action or maneuver you probably shouldn't do it. If you think there's ice on the road, there's probably ice on the road. People stay in Trucking because of what they won't do, not because of what they can do.

3. Make Your Money and LEAVE. Being behind the wheel is not a lifetime deal. It's nice to know truckers have been in the industry for 20+ years. But everybody isn’t built for this work. You can have health problems because of the hours you put out.

4. It's OK to be late sometimes. No load is more important than your license and safety. Do not let dispatch, fleet manager or we brokers pressure you into a situation you're uncomfortable with. It's your license, not ours. It's your ticket, not ours.

6. Stay in shape. Get 8k-10k steps in a day, get some resistance bands, dumbbells and actually put in the work.

7. Relationships - There are people out there that have your best interest at heart and even more that don't. You can spiral in that lonely truck FAST, build solid relationships and let go of the bad ones.

8. Old heads - you don't have to listen to old heads for everything, however, if there's somebody making the job look easy, they might have good knowledge for you. Don't write them all off.

9. Mental Health - don't be afraid to see if you're insurance covers a therapist or something. Find some trucker friends. Find an outlet to get rid of those daily struggles. It's like sitting in solitary confinement sometimes.

10. Don't be afraid to ask questions. Some of those old dudes that look like killers, rednecks, convicts are the most upstanding people. They want you to win. Most truckers want Trucking to survive and that means making you better.

11. Make Yourself an Asset!!!! Get your hazmat, get your tanker license, twic card, passport. Get your doubles and triples, learn the basics of flatbed, re**er and heavy-haul. Every part of this industry has ups and downs... there's never a "down year" if you can do everything.

12. Relax. It's OK to get frustrated. We all have our off days, that stressed out mind will have you making simple mistakes for no reason other than you have too much on your mind.

13. Be sharp. You know the FMCSA wants to catch you slipping. Make sure your clock is good, make sure your paperwork is clean, make sure your truck is in good shape.

Now go out there and be the best you can be.

Safe trucking y’all.

The volume drop at US ports is not a "blip", it is the start of a much steeper decline. We measure container volume loadings at the port or origin. The current volume drop in US container imports that is showing at US ports is going to get worse. Winter is coming.
Craig Fuller

As a Freight Brokerage Agency, how prepared are you for this?

Truckload Volumes are the health of the US Physical Goods Economy, they tell us what is happening up stream.

For the first time since June of 2020, Truckload Demand measured by the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) is below 11,000 points.

The dark Blue Line is YTD and is dropping more as we approach the halfway point in Q4. This further drop is the signal that the holiday rush simply isn't here this year.

Only 2019 OTVI (Orange Line) is higher than 2022 (Dark Blue line) and judging by the pace of the downward movement in 2022s OTVI path, it would suggest we will fall below 2019 levels.

@ Luke Falaska

Ecommerce had a head fake in early summer, It looked like volume was going to trend negative. Everyone reacted by cutting.
Volume accelerated into Q4 and continues to accelerate. Warehouses are short capacity again.

Depending on what happens with the macroeconomy, this will likely get hit hard in Q1/23. Lots of ramp-up inventory re-build for holidays, but many signs point to downward pressure which relates to overall demand ahead.

There are not a lot of new ships coming to the market next year, so ocean capacity won't increase much in 2022. However, as backlogs clear the *relative* capacity will increase ~20%, as that is how much has been artificially removed 2H this year due to congestion at the port. Although it is more about the number of containers than ships out there and in the last two years new equipment grew outpacing new builds and global demand, about 650,000 more than average, once the backlog clears and those boxes are repositioned what will the effects be?

FedEx will sell space on empty container imports as a congestion-bypass service.

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