The Arboleda Ochoa Group

IPOs AS A MARKET TELL | Weekly Market Commentary | April 1, 2024 The initial public offering (IPO) market allows institutional investors to incorporate the macroeconomic landscape with individual corporate earnings data — and future earnings forecasts — to ascertain a share price that will hold up to analyst and media scrutiny coupled with overall market dyna...

OUTLOOK FOR U.S. ECONOMY CONTINUES TO BRIGHTEN | Weekly Market Commentary | February 12, 2024 When we wrote the annual outlook last November, the data was mixed. Some metrics hinted at emerging cracks in the economy while others suggested the growth trajectory in capital markets and the economy had legs. So, the variety of the data produced the narrative that business activity in the New Yea...

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ANATOMY OF A MARKET RALLY | Weekly Market Commentary | November 20, 2023 As the market appears to be taking a rest and consolidating its $2.7 trillion rally leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday, the historical pattern over the last five years suggests the shortened holiday week typically enjoys modest gains. With concerns over the resiliency of consumer spending, howev...

POSSIBLE HALLOWEEN SCARES FOR MARKETS AND THE ECONOMY | Weekly Market Commentary | October 30, 2023 It’s a tradition here to write about what scares us around Halloween each year. The past few years have offered plenty of material to use in these annual commentaries, but with wars in Israel and Ukraine ongoing, Washington, D.C. dysfunction reaching new heights, the unrelenting rise in interest r...

EARNINGS HOPE TO KEEP THIS ONE-YEAR-OLD BULL MARKET GOING | Weekly Market Commentary | October 16, 2023 Earnings season has kicked off with several of the big banks and a handful of other blue-chip companies having already reported results for their calendar third quarters. The key headline this reporting season will be the (likely) end of the earnings recession. The October-November reporting season....

HIGHER FOR LONGER—UPDATING OUR TREASURY FORECAST | Weekly Market Commentary | October 9, 2023 U.S. Treasury yields have seemingly been moving in one direction lately (higher), with the 30-year Treasury yield temporarily breaching 5% for the first time since 2007. The move higher in yields (lower in price) has been unrelenting, with intermediate and longer-term Treasury yields bearing the bru...

PROSPECTS FOR A FOURTH QUARTER RALLY | Weekly Market Commentary | October 2, 2023 After a difficult September for stocks, investors are surely ready to flip the calendar to October. That’s the month that kicks off the historically strong fourth quarter. Expecting this pattern to repeat this year is tricky given the overhang of a government shutdown, interest rates near 16-year ...

IS INDIA THE NEW CHINA? | Weekly Market Commentary | September 25, 2023 India has emerged as a compelling economic growth story and an increasingly attractive alternative to China within the emerging markets complex. A growing population with a robust and young workforce, significant infrastructure spending, and an ongoing digital transformation have been key catalysts....

LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE GRAND TETONS | Weekly Market Commentary | August 28, 2023 The Federal Reserve (Fed) often uses the Jackson Hole Symposium to announce tweaks in policy. Other central bank leaders are also worth watching as investors try to perceive where rates will be in the coming months. In this piece, we discuss some of the opportunities and risks we see in the markets....

PULLBACK PERSPECTIVE | Weekly Market Commentary | August 21, 2023 Volatility has returned right on cue as U.S. equity markets continue to pull back from overbought levels. The recent jump in interest rates has proven to be too much too fast for stocks to absorb, especially for the heavyweight and longer-duration technology sector. Deteriorating economic conditions...

KEY EARNINGS SEASON TAKEAWAYS | Weekly Market Commentary | August 7, 2023 Earnings season is mostly behind us with about 85% of S&P 500 companies having reported second quarter results. The high level results aren’t particularly impressive, but if we peel back the onion, the numbers are encouraging. Results and guidance probably haven’t been good enough for stocks to ...

A CLOUDY OUTLOOK MAKES FOR CHOPPY MARKETS | Weekly Market Commentary | July 31, 2023 The economy is doing better than expected, and the markets are responding accordingly. In this piece, we discuss some of the factors that cause us to think the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked for the last time in this cycle as inflation is receding and the outlook for the consumer looks cloudy. We close...

(STILL) WAITING ON THE FED | Weekly Market Commentary | July 24, 2023 The first half of the year probably didn’t go the way many fixed income investors had hoped, particularly after the historically awful year last year. It wasn’t a horrible start—more in line with recent years—but expectations were high this year, with many calling 2023 the year for fixed inc...

KING DOLLAR STILL RULES | Weekly Market Commentary | May 8, 2023 Much has been written lately about the threats facing the reserve currency status enjoyed by the U.S. dollar. “De-dollarization” headlines appear on a near-daily basis, suggesting the dollar’s reign is in looming jeopardy, while counter arguments point out there isn’t another currency with t...

A CLOSER LOOK AT COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE | Weekly Market Commentary | April 17, 2023 The commercial real estate (CRE) market has recently captured the spotlight after being flagged as the next potential shoe to drop following last month’s banking turmoil. While rising rates have weighed on financing costs and the recent bank failures will make lending more restrictive, the post-pa...

WILL JANUARY HIT THE TRIFECTA? | Weekly Market Commentary | January 30, 2023 The script has been flipped in 2023. Last year’s underperformers have turned into outperformers this year, driving the S&P 500 Index up over 5% this month. The pace and composition of the rally have left many investors skeptical over its sustainability, especially amid a lackluster earnings season...

Top 50 Fastest-Growing Financial Advisor Firms - 2022 Edition - SmartAsset SmartAsset identified the fastest-growing financial advisors in the U.S. by comparing data from a total of 682 financial advisors across four metrics.

HIGH INFLATION AND RISING RATES SUPPORTED VALUE IN 2022 | Weekly Market Commentary | November 14, 2022 The growth vs. value debate has been pretty one-sided in 2022, with value outperforming growth for a sustained period for the first time in almost 15 years. However, the debate is heating up as investors begin to consider whether the pendulum will swing back to growth if inflation and interest rates...

HOW MIDTERM ELECTIONS MAY MOVE MARKETS | Weekly Market Commentary | November 7, 2022 Midterm elections are upon us, with Election Day on Tuesday. Republicans are strongly favored to win the House, and the Senate is roughly a tossup. We believe either outcome would be market-friendly, although the bigger market driver will likely be central banks’ efforts to tame inflation. In this...

Client Letter | November 2, 2022 October is now behind us and it has delivered on its track record as a historically favorable month for stocks, offering some respite for investors as major equity indices rose for the month. The downside pressure on equities had gotten a bit overdone after investor pessimism during September reache...

FEDERAL RESERVE PREVIEW: TRICK OR TREAT? | Weekly Market Commentary | October 31, 2022 With a series of important economic indicators suggesting the economy is declining and inflation is finally decelerating, albeit very slowly, markets are beginning to factor in that the Fed may soon transition to a less aggressive stance in early 2023. Here we preview this week’s Fed meeting and d...

THREE THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT RECESSIONS | Weekly Market Commentary | October 24, 2022 If the U.S. economy enters a recession, the causes and potential outcome will be hotly debated. At LPL Research, our starting point is always looking at history. This week’s commentary will remind us of three things we know about historical recessions.

THREE THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT RECESSIONS

THREE THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT RECESSIONS | Weekly Market Commentary | October 24, 2022 If the U.S. economy enters a recession, the causes and potential outcome will be hotly debated. At LPL Research, our starting point is always looking at history. This week’s commentary will remind us of three things we know about historical recessions.

Retirement Legislation Awaits Further Action

Retirement Legislation Awaits Further Action Legislation moving through Congress could aid tax-favored IRAs and retirement plans.

HOW MUCH HIGHER CAN RATES GO?

HOW MUCH HIGHER CAN RATES GO? | Weekly Market Commentary | September 19, 2022 Inflationary dynamics continue to surprise to the upside, and markets now expect the Fed to pursue one of its most aggressive rate hiking campaign in years. U.S. Treasury yields continue to move higher as well. We think we’ve seen the biggest moves higher in yields, but as long as inflationary pre...

GETTING JOBS MARKET BACK INTO BALANCE

GETTING JOBS MARKET BACK INTO BALANCE | Weekly Market Commentary | September 12, 2022 Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell reiterated his warning that getting inflation under control will require some pain. Powell is likely making these warnings based on the arcane, clunky relationship between inflation and unemployment. The key to getting the market back into balance is a bigger labo...

CALENDAR CRUELTY

CALENDAR CRUELTY | Weekly Market Commentary | September 6, 2022 The difficult 2022 for stocks may not get much easier because as we now wait for better news on the inflation front, we have to contend with a seasonally weak month of September. While we got some welcome news in Friday’s jobs report, more evidence of falling inflation will take time to materializ...