Jon Kutsmeda

There are over 330 million people in the U.S.

I wonder how many know this...

Here are today's featured rates at LendZen.com

𝗟𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗭𝗲𝗻 gives you 𝗮𝗻𝗼𝗻𝘆𝗺𝗼𝘂𝘀 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 and easy-to-use visual tools to help you choose the best rate 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗵𝘂𝗺𝗮𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝗮𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘀.

𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮 𝘗𝘖𝘐𝘕𝘛𝘚 𝘨𝘦𝘵𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘳𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘢𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘥 𝘢 𝘭𝘰𝘵 ... 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘪𝘵 𝘮𝘦𝘢𝘯?

𝗞𝗲𝗲𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝘀𝘄𝗲𝗿 ...

and an easy-to-follow tip on how to ...

navigate 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘨𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘷𝘰𝘤𝘢𝘣𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘺 𝘭𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴 that loan originators use to sell you a loan that is 𝗴𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗯𝗮𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘆𝗼𝘂 ...

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Avoid the MORTGAGE rate TRAP - before you REFINANCE watch this video.

Now that mortgage rates are trending lower, homeowners need to be on alert.

But ... how do you know if you should refinance?

Most homeowners do not realize that mortgage rates have been standardized for decades.

All banks and lenders offer the same rates - the only difference is what fee they add on top.

Brokers are just an extra hand in the pie that makes your mortgage costs even more expensive.

But even when you realize how cookie-cutter the mortgage industry has become, it doesn't make your refinance decision any easier.

Until now...

https://www.LendZen.com is the only fully automated mortgage shopping experience.

You can check rates in real-time and get an instant analysis without any human interaction.

This eliminates the costs banks and lenders charge, resulting in massive savings.

The automations from LendZen also remove the hassles and pushy sales calls.

There are a lot of hungry loan originators who have not been fed in a long time, LendZen will help you avoid being their prey.

Its powerful features tell you instantly whether or not you should refinance, with easy-to-use visual tools that actually make shopping for a mortgage fun!

Join me Jon K*tsmeda as I explain the "mortgage rate trap" and show you how to use https://www.LendZen.com to check rates anonymously and get an honest, math-driven, answer to the question - "should you refinance?"

https://youtu.be/R3ZJ7NKbWNg

You are at great RISK of falling for the mortgage rate TRAP - before you REFINANCE watch this video Now that rates are trending lower, homeowners need to be on alert.But ... how do you know if you should refinance?Most homeowners do not realize that mortgag...

Have you heard?

In an age of Ai and rapid innovation, we are proud to announce the first and only fully autonomous mortgage shopping experience.

LendZen.com brings forward the future of real estate lending.

No more humans or hassles.

With LendZen you get access to real-time mortgage rates without providing any personal information, not even an email.

But, that's just the beginning...

After you select a rate, sit back and relax as LendZen delivers an instant analysis to make sure your selected rate is the best choice for your goals.

Never again do you need to consult with a human or deal with the hassle of a salesperson.

There is no going back to the old way of getting a mortgage and once you try LendZen you'll see why.

Start your experience now and get the answers you want in a few simple steps.

WARNING: Drive Carefully, Curve Up Ahead

Inverted Yield Curves - Love'em or hate'em, you cannot ignore them.

When the price of a bond goes up, the falls.

The longer the duration (time) of a bond the greater the - a lot more can happen to your money the longer it is tied-up.

This is why longer duration bonds should have a higher yield (lower price) than bonds of shorter length, because expect to be compensated for the "duration risk".

However, when investors become nervous about the near-term economic outlook, they are often compelled to against short-term risks by investing in the safety of bonds with longer-durations.

Instead of buying a 2-year bond, they might purchase a 5-year bond, or even longer like a 10-year .

As negative sentiment grows, and risks of an economic downturn looming, more investors look "further out on the curve" for the comfort of cash-flow from long bonds.

Eventually, this shift in investor behavior gets lopsided, and the yield on longer-duration bonds falls below shorter-term .

When this happens, the is said to be inverted, thus the term "Inverted Yield Curve".

In normal market conditions, if you were to draw a line with the bond term along the horizontal x-axis, and the yield (rate) along the vertical y-axis, the line would curve upwards like a smile, due to the expectation that longer-duration should pay higher .

When the opposite occurs, and the line slopes downwards this is considered .

I recently shared a video "Game Over" where I discuss the recent decision by the Fed to hike the "Fed Funds" rate again, and how their overnight rate is now inverted with the 2-year US Bond.

Historically when these two specific yields invert the Fed stops hiking .

However, the entire US bond curve has at one-point inverted in the past few months, and many significant curve ratios like the 3m/10y and the 2y/10y are the most inverted in .

Many yield curves have 100% accuracy for predicting , it is not if, but when, and with the whole curve upside down, the road head for the US and global economies looks a lot more treacherous.

We do not RISE...

To the LEVEL of our GOALS.

Instead...

We FALL to the level of our SYSTEMS.
Motivation is doing what needs to be done when you WANT to do it.

Discipline is doing what needs to be done when you DO NOT WANT to do it.

Success depends less on motivation and more on discipline.
We can strengthen our discipline by creating systems to fall back on in the absence of motivation.

Critical to the quality of our systems, and therefore the level of discipline we maintain, is the environment that supports both.

Focus first on creating a healthy environment that nurtures the development of strong systems.

This way, when we inevitably fall to the level of our systems, they will be indestructible in their role of keeping us on track to reach our goals.
The greatest champions in all aspects of life, whether it be in sport or in business, are incredibly disciplined.

They achieve this with systems that allow them to rise up and overcome the most challenging of obstacles.
Recently, a special big wave surfing competition was held on the Hawaiian Island of Oahu.

The Eddie Aikau Big Wave Invitational, also known as "The Eddie" celebrates a great man who sacrificed it all to try and save his fellow crew members aboard the Hokule'a.

Eddie trusted not only in his ability as an elite surfer when he jumped in the open ocean and paddled for help, but he believed in his skills as a waterman and the systems one relies on in the most dangerous of ocean swell conditions.

On January 22, 2023, for the first time in 7-years, the waves where just right to run one of the most celebrated surf competitions on Earth.

The photos used in this post are from that day, thanks to the handy work of photographers:

📸 IG: brianbielmann
📸 IG: sammydang_photography
For an event that saw nearly 4 Olympic seasons since its last appearance, competitors had to stay prepared year-after-year for the life-threatening arena and be able to perform at their highest-level.

In the intensity of the moment, when it finally came time to paddle out, they all fell to the level of their systems.

For some, this meant the ride of a lifetime, for others a fall they will never forget.

LAW OF RECUPERATION

The biggest misconception about , and the biggest mistake made by , is thinking that low rate means a better loan.

Perhaps if getting a mortgage was as simple and inexpensive as opening a card, we could focus purely on rate.

However, the process of getting a is more complex and involves third parties, who all have fees that contribute to "closing costs".

These costs are usually reflected in the APR, which helps compare of the SAME rate across different .

However, the APR by itself is rather opaque and does not tell us whether the , and the costs associated with it, are worth it ... especially compared to a slightly higher rate that is less expensive.
Because most mortgage loans in the USA are packaged into Mortgage-Backed Securities in the US are determined by the price of the mortgage associated with the different MBS.

This means closing costs can be wildly different depending on the mortgage in which a specific rate is likely to be bundled.

For example, a 30-year fixed mortgage with a of 4.25% is likely to be much less expensive than a 4.00% despite only a quarter-percent difference.

This is because a 4.00% needs to be bundled in a lower rate coupon than the 4.25%.

The lower the coupon, the more expensive it is for investors, and the more expensive its .

I explain this phenomenon in blog post called "The Game of Loans", which you can read at JK*TS.com.
These are undisputable facts of how securitized mortgages function.

So, how can you determine the best loan, if APR is ambiguous?

That is where my "Law of Recuperation" comes into play.

This simple formula will always tell you the best loan, based on your specific goals.

You don't need a mortgage professional or pushy salesperson to advise you, let the Law of be your guide.

I shared a link in my bio to an article I wrote explaining how the works, and why you need to use this simple formula every time before choosing a mortgage rate.

Check it out at http://JK*TS.com

(links are in my bio)

THE WEEKLY K*T

Each week I share a blog post called "The Weekly K*t".

It is a summary of important updates and the best content I shared all over the internet from the prior week.

The most recent Weekly K*t is now on the blog at http://JK*TS.com, but you can access it quickly from the link in my bio.

To receive it in your inbox and see what makes the "K*t" each week, use the subscribe forms on the website or from the main menu.

While you are there check out the other resources and be sure to download some of my FREE STUFF.

PEAK INFLATION.

The recent trend of suggests the worst is behind us, but 7.7% year-over-year inflation is hardly something the Fed is going to cheer about.

Therefore, expect the beatings ( ) to continue, until morale (inflation) improves.
Unfortunately, you can't keep things running smoothly when an dependent on central bank liquidity is abruptly forced into sobriety.

Try keeping your bathtub full, while the drain stop is pulled, without a steady and forceful stream of water (stimulus).
The cracks have started turning into craters, and the knock-on effects of sloppy monetary policy are showing up everywhere.

A strong labor market is the bedrock of a healthy economy, and the Fed, full of hubris, thinks they can navigate a soft landing without killing the market.

However, there are very clear signs they have already thrown the baby out with the bath water.

Take for example the massive layoffs recently at major companies like , , and .
Speaking of real estate, the shelter component of CPI had the highest increase on record.

inflation 6.92%, up from 6.59%.

Shelter inflation 7.52%, up from 7.21%.

This data is further evidence just how lagging of an indicator CPI can be, with real-time housing data crumbling under the weight of 20-year high mortgage .

Demand is evaporating as sales slide to decade lows and activity has plummeted to levels not seen since the 1990's.

"Move along, nothing to see here" the Fed proclaims as they take a mini victory lap today, while reminding us, "the job is not done".

Correct, the job is not done. The Fed is never done until they break something, and that something is likely to be (more on this soon).
As the saying goes "Don't fight The Fed".

Therefore, if you are expecting the Fed to pause, or even pivot soon, then you aren't paying attention and you are picking a fight with the wrong gang.

Buckle up, the pain train is coming to a neighborhood near you, and you already punched your ticket to ride.

Choo chooo!

"John Hancock ... it's Herbie Hancock."

The same brilliance Tommy Boy used to barely graduate college, seems to closely resemble the Fed and their monetary policy.

Afterall, you can get a good look at a T-bone by sticking your head up a bull's ass, but the Fed doesn't seem willing to listen to a butcher instead, nor are they taking cues from the market either.

Although inflation has been consistently at record highs most of the year, hovering around 8% year-over-year, there is no shortage of "real time" data that shows the economy is rolling over ... hard and fast.
Since CPI is made up mostly of lagging data, one can easily make the argument The Fed is conducting monetary policy through the rearview mirror.

Shelter makes up 1/3 of the CPI calculation and the rent reports they use ticked higher, despite real time data from sources like Redfin that show month-to-month trends falling.

Housing is always the last domino to fall, and I'm not jumping on the "crash" bandwagon, but the recent weakness we are seeing in "most" markets is likely to worsen.

Price trends, sales data, loan activity, mortgage rates, are all sounding a scary alarm.

So is shipping and manufacturing data.

However, employment and jobs availability continue to remain strong, giving the Fed a greenlight to continue with the tightening.
Speaking of, although rate hikes get all the attention, the increasing pace of "quantitative tightening" is what we should be watching closely.

Liquidity has collapsed, so much so the world's biggest bond markets have been trading like a chaotic penny stock lately.

Central Banks around the world will likely push things to the brink, before being forced to "pivot" and return to the bail-out style policies that got us into this mess in the first place.
However, don't expect them to save you anytime soon.

Although markets can spiral out of control quickly, there is sufficient "good enough" data for cental bankers to keep delivering the pain.

Today's CPI report adds fuel to the smoldering fire.

So, remember, don't fight The Fed.

In fact, get out of their way.

They are not buying any brake pads and are full steam ahead until something blows-up.