First Coast Tropics Watch

PTC #18

PTC #18 per
NHC @ 4pm est.

Invest 97L disturbance is currently disorganized according to recon. NHC may label this a PTC later today but, we may not get a Tropical Storm designation until Tuesday/Wednesday as this should be slow to develop.

3 RECON FLIGHTS SCHEDULED...
TEAL 71
TEAL 72
TEAL 73
Once we get the data from these aircrafts, we'll have a much better grip on track and intensity...

TROPICAL UPDATE: A Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm is likely in the Caribbean before eventually heading into the Gulf. (Patty already formed in the Atlantic). Here are my thoughts as of Sunday:

1. Hurricane Hunters will be flying into the storm this afternoon trying to find a closed low and importing valuable data into computer models to increase accuracy.

2. Wouldn't surprise me if we have a cone by later today or tonight. Remember that because of the time change, advisories will now be at 4 AM / PM and 10 AM / PM.

3. First up is Jamaica Monday into Tuesday, then Cuba Tuesday into Wednesday. Can't rule out a hurricane in the Caribbean if ingredients come together.

4. It will move into the Gulf on Wednesday. The more north it gets in the Gulf, ingredients become less favorable...including higher shear, dry air and cooler waters. These are typical characteristics of November in the Gulf. Most models show weakening if it tries to make landfall in the northern Gulf Coast or Florida Panhandle. That doesn't mean it still can't bring impacts!

5. For Florida, once again, we will likely be on the eastern "dirty side" of a tropical system. Rain chances will increase regardless. But how close or far does it get to the state? That impacts what we see, whether minimal or greater. Current models are not showing a repeat of Helene or Milton in terms of intensity. The exact track is still one of the things we need to fine tune, but we will be getting more clarity soon.

6. Timing of any Florida impacts would be as early as Wednesday for the southern half of the state, to as late as Saturday for the northern half.

It's been a long hurricane season and I know this is the last thing we want to deal with. Trust me, I'm with you. If you have vacation or cruise plans from the Caribbean to Florida, make sure to monitor the forecast. Remember that every storm is different and the impacts that they bring. Track and proximity to Florida is also going to be very important with this one if we see just rain or something more (higher tides, tornadoes, etc). We'll continue to keep you updated 24/7 with just the facts without the hype.
Thanks everyone!

- Matt Devitt WINK Weather

Terrible sad news to share...
Prayers going out to all these folks impacted.

Graphics and Information courtesy -
Meteorologist Scott Pilie
For now we just monitor the Genesis of RAFAEL.
Time line for any threat to land at the Northern gulf coast would be mid to late next week depending on track and forward speed.

INVEST 97L - Future "RAFAEL"

*NOTE* THIS IS NOT A MILTON OR HELENE SCENARIO!

YES it may enter the GoMex as a CAT 1 Hurricane but, as it moves North, waters are cooler and strong Wind Shear will be a factor in weakening this system.
Could be a heavy rain maker for anyone from Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia and/or Central & North Florida.
Keep it here as we track and update info frequently.

INVEST 97L
NOW AT 80% 48 HOURS
90% IN 7 DAYS...

Invest 97L - Future TROPICAL STORM "RAFAEL"
Model Tracks...

Graphics - Paul Dellagatto
I would also add, that blocking High Pressure ridge will be pushed East by a strong Trough digging South and that's what should steer future RAFAEL. It would follow the Western periphery of that Ridge.

Model guidance tracks for Invest 97L and my approximate track from 48 hours ago! NOT BAD AT ALL!

Tropical Storm intensity at landfall. Don't panic if it becomes a Hurricane as it enters the GoMex. The further North it goes, the cooler the water and more hostile the upper atmosphere (WIND SHEAR) will become due to a Strong Trough digging South!

STARTING TO GET CROWDED OUT THERE!

INVEST 97L

CARIBBEAN AOI UPGRADED TO INVEST 97L...

Big shout out to my newest top fans! 💎 Vivian Martinez, Trey Lance Keene, Ricky Carter, Jessica Frost, Brian Stewart, Tina Lindsey Dickerson, Tony Viola, Cheryl Dinan, Rojer Ramlakhan, Patsy DeVries, Andy Holden, Heith Crum, Amber Parsons Medsker

Extended forecast for NE FL and SE GA. Have a Great weekend.

Tropics Satellite View -
Sat. am
11/02/24

RIP CURRENT RISK - HIGH

Weather Impact Key Messages...

Weather Map - Saturday
November 2, 2024