Lee Cunningham

Commentary: Mortgage rates fell to their lowest levels in more than a year. Treasury yields tumbled early in the week as investor concerns fanned a global stock sell-off. Some of the market’s biggest companies saw their values plummet. Last week’s lackluster jobs report added to concerns about the economy and whether the Fed had waited too long to begin interest rate cuts. Almost 100% of traders are predicting a 0.5% cut to the baseline rate in September. With a typical correction later in the week, rates rose slightly higher. The pivotal Consumer Price Index report is due next week.

Jobs data: Concerns escalated over the state of the labor market beginning last Friday, as nonfarm payroll positions showed an increase of just 114,000, and unemployment rose to 4.3%. The resulting stock selloff drove bond yields lower, resulting in lower mortgage rates. However, initial jobless claims dropped this week to 233,000, less than expected. The data counters other signs that the labor market is weakening.

Home tours: Declining rates boost how much aspiring homeowners can afford. And while the Homebuyer Demand Index - Redfin’s measure of requests for tours and other buying services - is down 13% year over year, that’s the smallest decline in three months. New listings of homes for sale are up 5.9% year over year, the biggest increase in five weeks.

Refinances resurgent: Refinances were up 16% for the week and 59% above the level from one year ago. The refinance share of activity (41.7%) was above 40% for the first time since March 2022. Overall, Mortgage loan applications increased 6.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Commentary: Mortgage rates remained essentially flat from last week. Treasury yields – which mortgage rates generally follow - ticked up after the Commerce Department reported a surprising 2.8% surge in second-quarter GDP. Yields fell back on disappointing tech-stock earnings and manufacturing data. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is due next.

June home sales tumble: In June, sales of existing homes fell sharply by 5.4%, reflecting a slow shift from a seller-driven to buyer-driven market. Inventory saw a significant increase, particularly in lower-priced listings. Homes are staying on the market longer and receiving fewer offers. Demand is suppressed by higher prices, with existing homes reaching a record median price of $426,900.

Fannie Mae forecasts cuts: Fannie Mae now forecasts two Fed interest rate cuts in 2024, leading to moderating home prices by 2025. Fannie economists predict home price growth to slow to 6.1% by the end of 2024, and to 3% by the end of 2025. Fannie forecasts the 30-year mortgage rate to average 6.8% in 2024 and 6.4% in 2025, causing refinance volumes to grow from $346 billion to $563 billion. They expect the Consumer Price Index to end 2024 at 2.9%.

Construction waits: Single-family home construction declined in June for the fourth consecutive month, falling to an annualized rate of 980,000, with permits decreasing to 934,000. Meanwhile, multifamily units saw a 19% spike to 373,000 starts, the highest in four months. Despite the overall increase, single family builders are focusing on smaller, more affordable homes, anticipating interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. High mortgage rates have dampened demand, leading to an 11% drop in May new home sales.

A friend of mine brought this to my attention, (thanks Rob!)…it’s with the Ashton Woods community in San Tan & East Mesa…it’s the best deal in town right now for interest rates. It’s a guaranteed 4 year plan during uncertain times.

$2,100 monthly payment (estimated)
3 🛌 2 🛁 with a Den, 1,700 sqft brand new

1st year 1.99% interest rate
2nd year 2.99% interest rate
3rd year 3.99% interest rate
4th year 4.99% interest rate (locked 30 yrs)

($1160 payments for lowest price home in Maricopa)

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Things to Do this Weekend - July 12-14, 2024

🌿🏠 Is your backyard more “jungle” than “oasis”? 😂 Then you need The Maricopa County Home & Landscape Show! Join us for a weekend of epic home hacks, gardening tips, and maybe a few too many trips to the food trucks. Whether you're looking to spruce up your space or just want to daydream about it, you'll find it all at the show. 🌸🛠️ Plus, where else can you talk mulch and martinis in the same day?

REAL ESTATE CONTENT??

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Let me know if the comments!

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Opportunity in Housing Remains Strong.

CoreLogic's Home Price Index showed that home prices nationwide rose 1.1% in April after rising 1.2% in March, showing that home price appreciation remains strong this spring. Prices are also 5.3% higher when compared to April of last year. CoreLogic forecasts that home prices will rise 0.8% in May and 3.4% in the year going forward, though their forecasts are typically on the conservative side so it's possible appreciation will be even higher.

ICE (formally known as Black Knight) also reported that national home values rose 0.3% in April after seasonal adjustment, with their index showing that prices are 5.1% higher than a year ago.

What's the bottom line? The latest rise in home prices reported by CoreLogic and ICE echoes the strong growth seen by other major indices like Case-Shiller and the Federal Housing Finance Agency. These reports continue to demonstrate why homeownership remains a good opportunity for building wealth through real estate.

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See what properties are available on the market near you!

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Search for properties with my Home Search! Please reach out with any questions or to schedule a showing.

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Search for homes with my Home Search! Please feel free to contact me or schedule a showing.

Start searching now: https://homeasap.com/459670/

If you've been considering selling your home, now is a great time to get started! Request your FREE Sales Price Estimate today, just click the link below!

Want to know how much your home is worth? Find out now! https://homeasap.com/459670/homevalue