Executive Wealth Management of Raymond James

July Market Commentary-Talking Politics! (Published 7/24/24)

In my April 10th, 2024, market commentary, I wrote the following:

"But with my intermediate-term "buy" signal to last as long as it has, my model's next "sell" signal would be considered a countertrend move, not an opportunity sell risk." As I write today, nothing has changed that opinion. With April statistically being the best-performing month of the year since 1950 for the stock market, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the rally on my next buy signal will be all-important. That said, my expectations for May through the summer are for the markets to "Flop and Chop."

We now know that the above exam answers were correct. I did, in fact, get an " intermediate" sell signal, which quickly reverted back to a "buy," which is where it remains as I write today. On April 10th, the Dow Jones closed at 38,461. As I write today, with the market down over 300 points, the Dow is still holding just above 40,000, or up approximately 4%. That, folks, is my definition of "Flop and Chop."

So, while my aforementioned technical model is still showing an intermediate-term "buy," the short-term (which I don't write about) is a "sell," hence the increased volatility. If my hunch is correct, this pullback should flush out enough froth to set the table for the next move higher. Speaking of froth, in reviewing the stock charts over the past couple of decades, I've noticed that even in bull markets, investors will get two to three compelling "buy" opportunities during the year. This current pullback is opportunity number two by my pencil for 2024.

Politics! Has anything happened in the world of politics since my last commentary? Clearly, I jest! My standard thoughts are to vote with your ballot, not your portfolio. Having been in attendance at the Raymond James Summer Development Conference last week, I sat in on no less than three presentations that showed graphical proof that looking at every outcome possible over the years yielded very little difference in market performance. Furthermore, I have never belonged to any political party as I find both choices unsatisfactory, if for different reasons. Former President Harry Truman, I think, summed it up best when he stated, " There is only one way for a politician to come into office poor and leave rich." Enough said!

With VP Harris running for the office of president, I still consider her an incumbent running for re-election. Since 1964, the stock market has been positive 100% of the time by an average of 11% in the second half of an election year. Will history repeat itself? Only time will tell.

Finally, I will say that not all is rosy. I believe the economy is much weaker than we are being led to believe. Inflation and debt are having a tremendous impact on most Americans, which causes me to believe 2025 should be a very difficult year for the economy and, of course, the markets.

Occasionally, our former chief market strategist would ask: "Is the stock market going up or is the measuring stick coming down?" to highlight the corrosive attributes of inflation on the dollar and purchasing power. After giving much thought to his musings, I have concluded both outcomes could be accurate.

As the broad markets continue to make new all-time highs after all-time highs, I am consistently hearing how the higher cost of everything from beef and eggs to auto insurance and rent is skyrocketing in price. These higher prices hurt low-income families the hardest; McDonald's has even had to admit that its customers are walking away from its offerings. These folks on the low-income scale are stuck in a spin cycle: When the Fed claims inflation is too low, they take rates to zero and print more money (QE). This causes most asset prices to go up! Think real estate, stocks, bonds, collectibles, etc. Then, when coupled with bad fiscal policy (Recovery Act, Inflation Reduction Act), it leads to inflation, which leads to higher interest rates now, which makes buying a car or a home a traumatic experience. This led former Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan to say that too much fiscal spending would cause rates to stay higher for longer and that Fed Chair Jay Powell should ask the administration to slow the spending in the Inflation Reduction Act. (I kept waiting for the punch line because I seriously thought he was joking).

Because of this out-of-control spending, I think that even with markets making all-time highs, there is little love for the stock market. As reported by Bloomberg News on June 13th, the US money market funds reached its all-time high of $6.12 trillion. This doesn't surprise me, as I am not getting calls from clients clamoring for more stock exposure, which is usually the case at or near market tops. Money markets paying 5.5% with very low risk are comforting to cash-rich investors! The bottom line is that when talking with investors who are paying attention to what's happening in DC, they are very uneasy with the direction of this country. I even heard of investors converting their IRAs to gold! Seriously!
According to Longtermtrends, in February 1980, it took 1.36 oz. of gold to buy one share of the Dow Jones. As of March 2024, it took 17.65 oz. of gold. I am pretty sure I could repeat this exercise with stocks versus real estate, art, etc. The bottom line is this: there have always been crazy things happening in this country. Is it now crazier? Maybe, maybe not! After all, one man's crazy is another man's nirvana! I do know that equities, through it all thus far, have proven to be a good choice for compounding capital and staying ahead of inflation.

In the meantime, my proprietary technical model flipped back to an intermediate-term "buy signal" after spending most of June as a hold.

Meanwhile, the stock market is up, and the measuring stick continues down!

December Market Commentary-"If Santa Claus should fail to call, Bears may come to Broad and Wall"

In my November 2nd market commentary titled "Out of the Wilderness", I wrote that the broad markets hit official correction territory in October, down 10%. I wrote that since 1972, in the month following the official correction threshold being hit, the following month was up, on average, 8%. For November, the S&P500 was up 8.3%.

I ended November's missive with the following:

"Is everything perfect in the market or the world, for that matter? No, it is not and never will be, as we are imperfect creatures. But if the Dow can recapture and hold its 150-day moving average, which currently sits at 34,015, the August 1 Dow Jones high of 35,679 could also be bettered!"

All of this occurred, and yesterday's 500 plus "Dow Wow" sent the benchmark through that 35,679 mark. (I'm not bragging; these are just the facts).

So, where do we go from here? In November, I did mention getting short-term, intermediate-term, and seasonal "buy signals" in my proprietary technical analysis model. Those buy signals are still a buy. However, the markets in the near term are technically "overbought", so one would think a brief pause would be in order. However, the rub is this: December, historically speaking, has been the third-best performance month for Dow Jones Industrials since 1950. Also, given the narrow breadth of the market returns for most of this year (Think Magnificent Seven), diversified portfolios have been left in the dust. So, with year-end bearing down, I think any market dip (tax loss selling) could quickly see buyers step in.

In closing, I want to address the Santa Claus rally, which I am asked about yearly. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, nearly every year, a respectable market rally within the last five days of the year and the first two in January. And if it does not occur, it concludes, "If Santa Claus should fail to call, Bears may come to Broad and Wall".

Merry Christmas!

Market Commentary: Out of the Wilderness

With October completing the third consecutive down month in a row for the U.S. stock markets, as your humble scribe, I would like to say that it certainly feels like we have been in the wilderness. But unlike many of my favorite figures in the Bible, we did not willingly enter it. This three-month down stretch marked the first such since January, February, and March of 2020, i.e., the COVID-19 market crash. The Dow Jones has not had four consecutive down months since 2011! So rare events indeed!

Last Friday, I wrote about the unusual circumstances of my intermediate-term "buy" signal flipping to a "sell" in only three weeks. I also wrote of my expectations of a market rally due to the highly oversold nature of the market. From my mouth to God's ear, the very next trading day, the market rallied over 500 points, and as I write, it continues to do so. This rally has been so powerful, in fact, that my intermediate-term "buy" signal has triggered again in just one week! Furthermore, one of my secondary weekly technical indicators made its first positive move this week since it topped out on July 28, 2023.

The October draw-down placed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 into an official market correction, down 10%. According to Vic Lederman of Chaikin Analytics, since 1974, the S&P500 has increased an average of 8% in the month after entering correction territory. And it has gained an average of 24% over the following year. Only time will tell if this pattern repeats itself.

Let's talk seasonally for a moment. Even though the jack-o-lanterns have not been put back in storage, November, in its first few days of trading, is living up to its reputation of being the best-performing month of the year, on average, since 1950, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. November also kicks off, what historically is, the best six months for the market: November through April.

Is everything perfect in the market or the world, for that matter? No, it is not and never will be, as we are imperfect creatures. But if the Dow can recapture and hold its 150-day moving average, which currently sits at 34,015, the August 1 Dow Jones high of 35,679 could also be bettered!

Out of the wilderness indeed!

October Market Commentary-Additional Update:

Monday's market action completed a favorable market structure on the daily and weekly Dow Jones charts. With all three of my technical indicators getting in gear to the upside, my priority model produced short and intermediate-term "buy signals." My October market commentary foreshadowed these signals, written on October 5th and distributed on Monday, October 9th.

I mention these dates to point out that the commentary was in the compliance approval process before the horrific events in the Middle East. The Geopolitical crisis does add another layer of uncertainty, but my signals are what they are.

On a final note, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac, although many people associate October as being a "jinx" month because of past crashes, October has been a "bear killer" and has turned the tide in 12 post-WWII bear markets: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2011.

October Market Commentary-Wei Ji

The Chinese word for crisis is Wei Ji. Wei means crisis, while Ji means opportunity. With the shenanigans in Washington DC last week, added to the backdrop of an ongoing market correction, the crisis or Wei portion seems well represented. For long-term readers of my commentary, you are well aware of my belief that there is very little causation between market movement and current news headlines. In other words, the media creates a storyline to explain whatever is happening in the market on any given day. So, given that I have been writing about my intermediate-term "sell signal" since mid-August, the approximately 9% pullback should not surprise anyone. As I am fond of saying, with my model's sell signal in place, lower prices are possible, if not likely.

However, an unexpected, never-before news event, say the Speaker of the House being removed for the first time, could and did add to the current downward market pressure. The evidence? A short-term "buy" signal was trying to get a foothold on October the 2nd. Although the Dow Jones closed down 74 points, (Net) money had flowed into the market that day. The next day, the news from DC hit, and net money flowed out. Hence, why I do not write about the short-term buy and sell signals.

As I write, I have the short-term sell and the more dominant intermediate-term and seasonal sell signals in place. This is a perfect time to segue into a brief refresher of market cycles and their relationship to my model market calls.

Short-term Cycles typically last 4 to 6 weeks, from low to low. In an upmarket, the second low is higher than the first.

Intermediate-term Cycle uses the weekly chart data and lasts approximately 22 weeks, low to low.

Seasonal Cycle using monthly chart data runs approximately 12 months, low to low.

So, if you go back to my March market commentary, I wrote about an intermediate-term "buy." That signal lasted until mid-August, which was approximately 22 weeks. Good stuff!

Now we get to the Ji or the opportunity. We could be lining up to see clustering lows (buy signals) on the short, intermediate, and seasonal cycles here in October, as they are all due in October.

To be balanced, I want to point out that with this extra push down (house drama), there has been some damage to the stock indices charts that needs to be mended, but this is the nature of Wei Ji. Aggressive investors could start nibbling here, and more conservative investors could continue to sharpen their buy list.

In the meantime, my sell signals remain in gear to the downside, so lower market prices are possible, if not likely!

Market Commentary: History Repeats. Maybe?

Last month, I wrote how, historically speaking, August is the weakest performance month of the year for the Dow Jones Industrial. This past August did nothing to hurt its reputation as a sour month, trading down -2.6%. But given that my model provided an intermediate-term sell signal on August 18th, I find the pullback relatively benign.

Entering September, I had a short-term "buy" signal and was quietly hoping it would be strong enough to fire the all-important intermediate-term "buy" signal, but as I write here today, this has not occurred. My hunch is that with the Fed standing pat on raising short-term rates today and according to the Fed survey, most institutional investors believe that the Fed is done raising rates. This sets the market up for what could be a pretty good fall.

For example, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the percent change in the Dow Jones Industrials between the midterm year low and the high the following year has averaged 46.8% since 1915. By my pencil, the mid-term closing low on the Dow was 28,725 on September 30th, 2022. A 46.8% move from there would put the Dow at approximately 42,168! Will this historical stat hold up in 2023? Only time will tell.

But what I do know is we are still currently in a cyclical bull market. So, while the slow grind lower has not been fun, there is reason to believe better days are not far away.

Regards,

Market Commentary-Grading the Downgrade!

This past week, Fitch's credit rating agency downgraded the US credit rating to AA+ from AAA. This surprise downgrade gave the TV commentators a lot to talk about for a few days, but there is not much to see here in the short term. Why? Two words Reserve Currency! Or, as I explained to my teenage children, we give the rest of the world worthless paper, and they give us BMWs, Gucci handbags, and flat-screen TVs in return. Not bad for as long as it can last! At some point, we will lose that reserve currency status. History shows this to be the case. A nation gets the reserve status, spends too much, and the world finds another alternative. Wash, rinse, repeat!

Also, JP Morgan and Bank of America called off their recession calls for 2023 last week. I seem to recall that a certain small-town Florida Boy writing the following market commentary in February of this year, "Recession Talk Over Cooked?." Perhaps I should have their salaries too?

In looking at the markets, the Dow Jones Industrial did break above the channel (trading range) I predicted in my July market commentary. And although as we enter August, market valuations are stretched, I would not attempt to be "cute" and trade around this froth as my proprietary technical strategy still has an "intermediate-term" buy signal showing.

Speaking of August, here is a fact you can use to wow or lose friends at your next cocktail party. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, August is the worst-performing month of the year for the Dow Jones. However, from 1901-1951, August was the best-performing month of the year. This was thought to be due to August being the month for Harvesting crops. Nowadays, only about 2% of our economy is made up of farming.

Who knew?

Market Commentary-Recency Bias

According to Investopedia, Recency bias is:

"Recency bias, or availability bias, is a cognitive error identified in behavioral economics whereby people incorrectly believe that recent events will occur again soon. This tendency is irrational, as it obscures the true or objective probabilities of events occurring, leading people to make poor decisions."

I can tell you that coming out of the longest bear market since 1948, Recency bias is alive and kicking! Look at the attached Federal Reserve chart of total money market deposits at an all-time high. Some of this increase in value is due to inflation, but the point is still apparent. This is happening while, as I write here today July 13th, both the S&P500 and Nasdaq are making new 52-week highs.

My intermediate term "buy signal" in my proprietary technical strategy is still in effect. Now the bears, sitting in the above-mentioned money markets, are quick to point out that the advance thus far has been very narrow, with seven stocks accounting for most of this year's move. I believe this fact is actual and somewhat problematic. However, these issues could correct themselves as more money returns to the market. The Dow Jones Industrial, which has significantly lagged performance-wise in 2023, is now just above the horizon channel's (where it has been stuck in 2023) upper trend line. If the Dow can hold above this line of resistance, we could see a breakout to the upside here.

I like to think of the market right now as a bus and the money market as a crowded bus station. At some point, the folks at the station will want to become passengers.

As a current passenger, I would not leave my seat!

Market Commentary-Blocking Out The Noise

My intermediate-term "buy" signal I wrote about in late March is still in effect, as I received yet another buy signal last Friday, June 2.

CNBC proclaimed today (6/9/23) that we had entered a new bull market ending the longest bear market since 1948. Interesting!

The two most challenging aspects of managing investment portfolios for a living are being able to block out the outside noise and then convincing my clients to do the same. In the first five months of 2023, I have lost count of the number of "experts" via newsletters, YouTube videos, and appearances on the financial channels warning of our imminent financial demise. I came across a newsletter where the author wrote a very eloquent and thoughtful argument on why the market was doomed to crash. As I read his diatribe, I agreed with each point he made. After reading the letter, I asked myself: "Does this help me to make money for my clients"?. The answer is no, delete!

I know what I'm up against in presenting my model and my views; heck, I'm just some guy writing from Podunk Orlando! With this in mind, I have learned over the decades of running my model to methodically make my case before I get my official "buy" or "sell" signal. Given the pronouncement on TV today, I felt it would be productive to look back on the breadcrumbs I have provided in 2023:

On January 20, I wrote the following:

And as I write today, the S&P500 is still positive for January, and according to the Stock Trader's Almanac's January Barometer predicts the year's course with a .722 batting average!

On February 23rd, I wrote:

However, the weekly indicators have moved higher in the prior weeks. Entering this week, the market was overbought on the short-term technical indicators, but Tuesday's market action remedied that. My only opinion is that you should not bet against the market!

On March 30th:

Last week's market action formed a weekly chart "swing low" on the Dow Jones Industrial. However, only one of my three technical indicators turned up, so a buy signal was not seen. This week the remaining indicators turned positive, finally reversing the intermediate-term sell signal I have been writing about since December 6, 2022.

Now one may ask, is this the start of a new secular (long-term) bull or cyclical bull market? I do not know. Only the man upstairs knows, and he is not taking on new clients!

So I suggest following my model! Oh, and yes, the opinions expressed here are mine and not those of Raymond James!

Market Commentary: Knocking on the Chalkboard!!

When I was but a young lad of nineteen years old, I was fortunate enough to be hired as Deputy Sheriff in my home county of Pinellas, Florida. I learned a lot from that experience, and I am very thankful for it. While at the police academy, we had a two-week portion on Florida Law. This law section was taught by a local legend of a defense attorney they called Joe C. He was of Italian descent, and the only thing larger than his personality was the spelling of his last name, hence the Joe C moniker. Joe C told us that we would have to learn the equivalent of a semester of law school in only two weeks, followed by a must-pass exam. To help us pass the exam, Joe C stated that any time he covered a law on the exam, he would knock on the chalkboard.

Since a vast audience views my market commentaries, regulatory constraints prevent me from making specific buy/sell recommendations.
I view my market commentaries as my way of knocking on the chalkboard!

Back on March 29th (Dow Jones closed at 32,717), I wrote the following that wasn't approved for posting until March 30th:

(Last week's market action formed a weekly chart "swing low" on the Dow Jones Industrial. However, only one of my three technical indicators turned up, so a buy signal was not seen. This week the remaining indicators turned positive, finally reversing the intermediate-term sell signal I have been writing about since December 6th, 2022.)

During the above update, I also shared my concerns that the signal could be a counter-trend move due to the "negative" formation on the monthly chart. Well, this market corrected that bearish monthly chart formation in April, and as I write, the March intermediate-term "buy" signal is still intact.

The length of my current "buy" signal adds credence to my belief that the lows for this bear market cycle could be behind us. Will there be bumps in the road along the way? There typically is, so this time probably will not be different. The opportunity of owning high-quality equities could be significant.

If Joe "C" were watching the market, he would be knocking on the chalkboard!

What I find intriguing is the fact that the bond market via the 3-month T-bill is telling me that the Fed should not hike at all. Fed Funds futures are pointing to approximately a 100% probability of a quarter (.25% bps) point rate hike after tomorrow's Fed meeting. Throughout the current rate hiking cycle, I've noticed that the Fed moved their Fed Funds rate range to match the 3-month T-bill. In other words, if Fed Funds rates were .50bps below the T-bill, they hiked 50bps to match. If it were 75bps below, they raised .75bps, etc.

As of this morning, the 3-month T-bill is yielding 4.865%. The current Fed Funds rate is 4.75% to 5%.

Will the Fed blink? This will be fascinating to watch!

Market Commentary- Bond Market's Forecasting!

Last week's market action formed a weekly chart "swing low" on the Dow Jones Industrial. However, only one of my three technical indicators turned up, so a buy signal was not seen. This week the remaining indicators turned positive, finally reversing the intermediate-term sell signal I have been writing about since December 6th, 2022. This is, of course, positive. The problem is that the Dow has completed a 'swing-high" on the monthly chart during March. With the monthly technical indicators in gear to the downside, this has produced a more dominant "Seasonal" sell signal. In plain English, this could mean the intermediate-term "buy" signal will only be a counter-trend move higher before reversing lower.

While at the Raymond James Regional conference two weeks ago, one of our fixed income strategists mentioned that the bond market was pricing Fed Funds rate at 3.7% by year-end or 100 basis points of rate cuts. This completely flies in the face of what the Fed has said about its intentions. The stock market is also in conflict with the bond market. Thus far this year, it is fair to say the bond market has been correct while the Fed and the stock market have not been so much! Speaking of the Fed, they are now predicting slightly negative GDP for 2023. Given we are expecting a positive first quarter GDP print this year, this would by default mean that there would need to be a meaningful decline in GDP the final three quarters.

Again in plain English, for the bond market to be correct, there would need to be a significant shock to the economy and perhaps the financial system itself!

Although I remain cautious, my personal philosophy is to always maintain some exposure.

Disclosure: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as "The Dow", is an index representing 30 stocks of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary.

Market Commentary-Black Swans

Investopedia describes a Black Swan as follows:

[A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is typically expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences.
Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and widespread insistence. They were obvious in hindsight].

Experiencing both the second and third-largest bank failures in U.S. history occurring in about a week would certainly classify as a Black Swan! During his press conference this past Wednesday, Fed Chair Jay Powell admitted that credit conditions had tightened due to these failures. He said they (The Fed) were attempting to learn how this happened. This certainly makes me feel better about the abilities of the folks in charge of things! I, for one, would not be surprised for another event to arise before this is over!

In my December 6th, 2022, market commentary, I spoke of my intermediate-term "sell signal" in my technical model. The Dow Jones closed that day at 33,596; as I write, it is trading at 32,490 or down approximately 3.3%, which feels like a market trying to heal itself! This is subjective, of course! I also wrote about the ongoing nature of that "sell signal." in my January and February market commentaries. As I write here in March, that "sell signal" is still in gear! In those before-mentioned commentaries, I also discussed and hung my hat on the fact that the Dow Jones Industrial was trading above its 150-day moving average. The bank failures in the last two weeks have the market below the 150-day moving average—indeed, a setback.

Last week I attended the Raymond James Regional Conference. In listening to a vast number of intelligent individuals from various firms, the recurring theme was that they would be adding duration (longer-dated maturity) to bond portfolios as the Fed rate hike cycle could be ending as soon as their May meeting, which would be positive for "risk" assets.

This makes for a challenging environment. As the presenter from First Trust portfolios mentioned at last week's conference, their Chief Investment Strategist had quipped that this was the most difficult macro environment to read in all his years in the business!

I would concur!

Disclosure: All opinions are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including asset allocation and diversification. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as "The Dow" is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary."

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