Johnny D. Taboada, MBA

Staying fresh and ready for the next move...

Completion Certificate for Fintech: Foundations & Applications of Financial Technology This certificate verifies my successful completion of University of Pennsylvania's "Fintech: Foundations & Applications of Financial Technology" on Coursera

Good day!

Great news. We just had our latest purchase and refinancing submission approved in ONE-DAY including cash out! Appraisals might be waived as well. See new loan limits which will give you access to better rates and better mortgages… We can close the loan in less than a month!

Hopefully this email finds you well. Rates are at the lowest point ever! Just to give you some idea our latest loan submission was approved in ONE DAY even when cash out refinance! Loans up 2.5 million even with cash out are unbelievable.

It doesn’t hurt to find out what would your new rate be if refinancing… I don’t even need to pull your credit to provide you with a no obligation quote. This is a great time to refinance rates are at the lowest they have ever been! Purchases are hot and I can close loans in time! It is very likely that I can better your mortgage at this time. As I always I offer no-obligation consultations and I am here to provide you with guidance and feedback on your mortgage needs.

Please feel free to reach out to me and I should have good news for you if you allow me to review your mortgage!

All the best,

BEST Mortgage Rates Ever are here!

Great news. The new programs with the lowest rates are here! We can do loans with this amazing rates and close your loan in less than 30 days including cash out! Appraisals might be waived as well. See new loan limits which will give you access to better rates and better mortgages…

As announced by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the standard and high-cost area loan limits for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are increasing. The base loan limit for 2021 in most of the country will be $548,250, as compared to the 2020 limit of $510,400. High balances loans in certain zip codes can go up 822K
* A number of states (including Alaska and Hawaii) do not have any high-cost areas in 2021.

It doesn’t hurt to find out what would your new rate be if refinancing… I don’t even need to pull your credit to provide you with a no obligation quote. This is a great time to refinance rates are at the lowest they have ever been! Purchases are hot and I can close loans in time! It is very likely that I can better your mortgage at this time. As I always I offer no-obligation consultations and I am here to provide you with guidance and feedback on your mortgage needs.

Latest on mortgages...

Good day!

After all the recent events…elections, pandemic and latest market changes….It’s no secret that things are out of the ordinary right now. The global coronavirus pandemic has fundamentally changed how we live, how we work, and the world that we live in. And with interest rates being at an all-time low, the effect on lenders has been nothing short of mayhem—and as consumers are furiously applying for mortgages or refinancing to take advantage of rates— lenders everywhere have been overwhelmed with the onslaught—and the risk. The reality is that the mortgage rates and programs have benefited to the point that this the lowest ever.
However, recent refinancing are in the 2’s% rates! Can you believe this? Yes, you might be able to qualify for this. This is not going to last.
I have been a licensed as a mortgage broker for many years but have been mainly being employed by one lender of recently. This somewhat has prevent me to search/offer other options other than what my employer has been offering. I have made the decision to once again help my clients in a much more direct way and more freely. Here are the benefits of this change:
• Having access to over 60 lenders to better match your loan needs
• Better rates and pricing than local banks or credit union in most cases
• Equal or lower closing costs
• Closing loans much quicker…in many cases purchases in 3 weeks or less and refinancing in 30 days or so!
• More personal experienced as I will be fully dedicated just to my clients.
• Having a personal loan processor just assigned to work with us to help us expedite the process
• Using local providers such as appraisers and title companies
• Referral awards to all my clients
• Access to most of mortgage lending programs such as commercial loans, reverse mortgage, out of state loans, investment loans etc.
Hopefully this email finds you well. Rates are at the lowest point in years. It doesn’t hurt to find out what would your new rate be if refinancing… I don’t even need to pull your credit to provide you with a no obligation quote. This is a great time to refinance rates are at the lowest they have been in the last 5 years in many cases. Purchases are hot and I can close loans in time! It is very likely that I can better your mortgage at this time. As I always I offer no-obligation consultations and I am here to provide you with guidance and feedback on your mortgage needs.
Message me with any questions!

U.S. housing regulator postpones new mortgage refinancing fee

Yes, it is the greatest time to refinance your home loan. Best rates ever!

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A contentious new fee on U.S. mortgage refinancings has been delayed until Dec. 1, according to the regulator overseeing mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The 0.5% fee, aimed at recouping potentially billions of dollars in losses created by the coronavirus pandemic, was originally set to take effect on Sept. 1. The regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, also said the fee would not apply to mortgages worth less than $125,000.

BY: JANN SWANSON

Forecasters See Surprisingly Strong Housing Rebound, But There Are Risks

The reopening of the economy in several states from the COVID-19 shutdowns has moved Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group to raise its estimate for the 2020 full year GDP from the 5.4 percent decline it predicted in June to a 4.2 percent downturn. The economists say this improvement is almost entirely due to a stronger pace of recovery than they had anticipated. They caution that the current surge of cases in many areas will drag on growth in the future, however, they expect any future shutdowns and behavioral changes will be less severe than in the first round. Furthermore, given that consumer spending is still down, future behavioral responses will likely translate into only a drag on growth rather than a sharp decline, as occurred in the early spring.

They also revised their Q2 GDP forecast from a 37.0 percent annualized decline to 34.8 percent and raised their Q3 estimate by 7.9 percentage points to 27.4 percent annualized.

The risks to their forecast are balanced between upside and downside risks and revolve around the pandemic. The downside is the current resurgence in cases which could lead to regional shutdowns and self-imposed quarantines by consumers and businesses. To the upside, if the current wave doesn't translate into severe cases, then consumer spending made be more robust than currently expected. There is also uncertainty about the extension of unemployment benefits and the passage of additional stimulus packages.

The ESR group calls the housing rebound unexpectedly strong and early date indicates the improvement will continue in June and July. May's existing home sales reflected contract signings in March and April and were down 9.7 percent month-over-month. Fannie Mae expects that to be the near-term trough. Pending sales jumped 44.3 percent in May presaging a strong sales number for June and early July. Purchase mortgages also continued to surge in June, up 16.7 percent year-over-year.

The economists said they had expected purchase activity to rebound in May and June but given the magnitude they have revised their existing home sales forecast for the second quarter from 4.1 million annualized units to 4.3 million and boosted the Q3 estimate from 4.9 million units to 5.4 million. Sales should wane later in the summer as pent-up demand is satisfied and inventories continue to be constrained. Full year existing sales will be down about 7.5 percent compared to 2019 then will grow 4.0 percent in 2021 as the economy continues to recover.
New home sales held up better in the early spring than existing sales. At the low point in April new home sales were down 15.6 percent on an annual basis while existing homes suffered a 24.8 percent decline. Builders offered discounting in March and April to move inventory and had fewer concerns about the properties being shown to buyers than did homeowners.

This stronger pace of new home sales in recent months has outpaced construction. Single-family starts were flat in May and the ratio of new home sales to starts was at the highest level since 2009. Sales cannot continue at recent levels unless construction picks up, which Fannie Mae expects will happen in coming months. However, it will take some time before inventories are rebalanced. Both labor shortages and tighter credit for construction and development loans may also limit the pace of new construction.
The strength of sales has led Fannie Mae to revise its forecast for home price gains. It previously predicted annual growth for the year of 0.4 percent but are now expecting an increase of 4.4 percent. However, strong price appreciation in the short run is expected to be partially offset later, as house price appreciation slows meaningfully moving into 2021, consistent with continued expected elevated unemployment rates over this period.

The ESR group points to a possible risk specific to its housing forecast due to uncertainty in assessing future homebuyer behavior. They current assume that recent purchase activity strength is largely driven by low mortgage rates and a reshuffling of sales due to the earlier shutdowns. However, it is possible that a major consumer preference change is underway, which could lead to a heightened level of home sales going forward. As remote working arrangements become more common, commuting distance may become less relevant to homebuyers, which could lead to a significant movement of households out of high-cost metros and central business districts. More generally, if there is a broad reassessment of desired housing features and amenities, home sales may remain elevated for quite some time relative to what macroeconomic conditions and mortgage rates might suggest. In addition, new single-family home construction spending, as well as remodeling expenditures, would likely be higher than their forecast, while multifamily housing could experience weakened demand. Home price growth may also vary greatly across local geographic levels and housing types, as the readjustment process occurs.

The economists also revised their purchase mortgage origination forecast consistent with the upgrades to home sales and house price predictions. They now expect purchase volumes to total $1.26 trillion in 2020, about $40 billion higher than last month's forecast, though this is still significantly lower than 2019 volumes. Purchase volumes will then grow by around 1.7 percent in 2021, as the broader economy continues to improve.

The forecast for refinance originations was also revised upward by 5.5 percent to nearly $1.9 trillion for 2020 based on stronger-than-expected acquisition, securitization, and application activity. The forecast for 2021 was left unchanged. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed rate fell to 3.03 percent in the second week of July, a new all-time low. At that rate Fannie Mae estimates that nearly 60 percent of all outstanding loan balances have at least a half-percentage point incentive to refinance.

What a great time to refinance....

Mortgage rates managed to stay sideways today after beginning the week with a move higher yesterday. This is a victory all things considered.

Rates take guidance from multiple sources. When it comes to mortgages, the prices of mortgage-backed bonds are the key ingredients in determining rates. While other factors had a massively outsized impact during the market volatility in March and April, mortgage rates have returned to their normal habit of following bond market cues.

If mortgages are taking cues from the broader bond market, where is the bond market getting its cues? In the past few weeks, bonds are just as likely to be watching the stock market for guidance as anything else. This is fairly logical considering both stocks and bonds have a stake in the nation's economic recovery and the general push back against coronavirus impacts. Progress pushes stock prices higher, and it also tends to put upward pressure on rates. The big caveat here is that the correlation is best seen over short time horizons.

In other words, mortgage bonds were indeed pointing toward lower rates when stocks were falling this morning and toward higher rates when stocks were rising in the afternoon. But whereas the movement in stocks was impressively large, mortgage bond movement was relatively contained. We certainly could see a few lenders begin the day with slightly higher rates tomorrow morning as a result of today's mortgage bond weakness, but the average lender remained in line with yesterday's levels as of 5pm Eastern time...

Another Week, Another Trip to All-Time Lows For Mortgage Rates
May 20, 2020
Mortgage rates fell again today. Whereas yesterday's improvements arrived in choppy fashion only after many lenders quoted higher rates in the morning. Today's improvement was more conclusive and more consistent from lender to lender. While there were a handful of mid-day improvements in response to bond market strength, most lenders were at least as low as they'd ever been to start the day. Many lenders were decidedly lower, bringing the average top tier conventional 30yr fixed quote dangerously close to cracking below the 3.0% barrier.

If you're hearing about rates in the high 2% range, shaking your head, and scoffing, know that you are not alone. It continues to be the case that rate offerings vary quite a bit from lender to lender. They can also be vastly different for different scenarios. What may seem like a "top tier" scenario to one person due to their 800 credit score and sizeable equity is actually not that great due to some other aspect of the quote (a "cash-out" refinance as opposed to a "no-cash-out" refinance is a popular reason for this).

Scoffing or not, this is definitely the new reality for rates. If we consider that the outlook for economic growth and inflation are two key considerations for interest rates, it's not hard to accept that we could and should be at new all-time lows. The bigger question is how much lower can we and will we go? There's no way to answer that with certainty. What I can tell you is that lower rates are just as possible as any other outcome, but they're increasingly likely to find a sideways range at new all-time lows (or close to them) in order to work through the surge in refinance volume associated with such movement.

BY: JANN SWANSON
Home Price Growth Slows, Mostly Unchanged in April
Decrease Font SizeTextIncrease Font SizeMay 5 2020, 7:48AM
CoreLogic's Home Price Index for March showed that the spring market started out strongly, with price appreciation from the previous month of 1.3 percent compared to a gain of 0.6 percent from January to February. The annual increase was 4.5 percent, a half point more than the year-over-year increase the previous month

That, however, is history. The company, in its first official HPI forecast since a national emergency declaration regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, predicts that home price growth will fall to an annual rate of 0.5 percent by March 2021. It also estimates that given the strong market for homes that existed at the beginning of the year, home prices did not plummet precipitately immediately after the virus began to spread and the country official entered a recession. Despite a decline of 26 percent in the number of closed home sales in the last two weeks of March, CoreLogic estimates that prices rose 0.6 percent between March and April.

"Home prices for March reflect transactions negotiated primarily in the previous two months, prior to the implementation of the shelter-in-place policies. Rapid decline of purchase activity starting in the middle of March can be seen in other CoreLogic data and is consistent with our HPI forecast of slowing price growth in April," said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. "The first quarter GDP results showed that the country entered a recession in March. Unemployment claims have reached record highs and this economic environment will further impact the housing market into the foreseeable future."

CoreLogic found a distinct disparity between the appreciation of single-family detached homes and that of attached units (condos, duplexes). The latter is the more affordable option but before the onset of the current crisis, the booming economy, increasing wages, and low interest rates were allowing more home buyers to purchase the larger detached homes and those prices appreciated 4.7 percent on an annual basis. In contrast the rate of increase among attached units was only 3.8 percent.

CoreLogic's Market Condition Indicators (MCI), an analysis of housing values in the country's 50 largest metropolitan areas, found 36 percent of areas had an overvalued housing market in March 2020, while 28 percent were undervalued, and 36 percent were at value. The MCI analysis categorizes home prices in individual markets by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals such as disposable income. An overvalued market as one in which home prices are at least 10 percent higher than those levels while in an undervalued one home prices are at least 10 percent below it.

The HPI Forecast shows the increased disparity of home prices across metros and highlights the continued housing affordability crisis, which began well before COVID-19 and promises to deepen in the looming recession. "The CoreLogic U.S. Home Price Index is predicted to remain largely unchanged over the next year or so after a long uninterrupted run of appreciation," said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "Although the economic fallout from lockdown orders, put in place to fight the spread of COVID-19, will be profound, the basic supports for a rebound in home purchase activity remain in place. Once the shelter-in-place policies are lifted, we expect millennials, who submitted home-purchase applications well into the crisis, to lead the way back to a positive, purchase-driven housing cycle."

Fed announces interest-rate decision

As expected, the Federal Reserve announced today that it would cut interest rates by a quarter point. The cut came following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the central bank’s governing body. This marks the third time this year the Fed has slashed rates, following cuts in July and September.

“This action supports the Committee's view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain. The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.”

The cut came as no surprise to market watchers, with odds that the Fed would cut rates placed at 97% Tuesday, according to a Bloomberg report. However, many economists expect this to be the last rate cut for a while.

The last time the Fed cut rates three times while the economy was growing was in 1998, according to Bloomberg.

Thinking about refinancing your mortgage?

The US housing market is seeing some signs of rising affordability, but it comes at a time when buyers are getting more concern about the economy.

The August 2019 housing trends report from realtor.com highlights the first decline in inventory in a year but prices are easing due to economic fears.

The median listing price in August was up 4.9% year-over-year but down 1.8% month-over-month to $309,000, the largest July to August drop since 2012.

"The state of the housing market as we head into the latter half of 2019 is a tug of war between increased affordability and economic anxiety. We're starting to see this tension play out in our August data," said George Ratiu, senior economist for realtor.com®. "On the one hand, lower interest rates have given buyers more purchasing power, which is contributing to August's decline in national inventory. However, concerns over trade wars and cutbacks in corporate spending are causing some buyers to postpone their search. This is contributing to both the slowdown in prices, as well as the inventory decline, as buyers stay put in their current homes."

Delayed purchase
Realtor.com’s home shopper survey last month showed that more than 4 in 10 home shoppers are expecting a recession before the end of 2020 and that would prompt more than half to delay their home purchase.

"These strong but opposing forces make it more difficult to predict what will happen in the second half of this year,” added Ratiu. “If the headwinds of economic uncertainty intensify, it could prompt a decrease in buyer demand and shift housing inventory's current trajectory. But if increased purchasing power prevails, we could see even more inventory declines and intensified competition between buyers."

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From Key Media, the world’s #1 global mortgage business

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/yang-immigrants-debate-america-122345151.html

Andrew Yang says ‘immigrants are being scapegoated’ — and a new study backs that up Presidential candidate Andrew Yang said that “immigrants are being scapegoated” for reasons that have “nothing to do with our economy” during the second night of the Democratic debates on Wednesday night.

The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by one-quarter of a percentage point Wednesday, marking the first such reduction in 11 years and providing an extra boost to the domestic economy as it faces the headwinds of a global economic slowdown.

Wall Street, which had both favored and anticipated an "insurance" rate cut, reacted sharply when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said during a press conference that the reduction in interest rate was not the start of a longer easing cycle. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged by as much as 470 points before recovering slightly to close at 333 points.

“We’re thinking of it essentially as a midcycle adjustment to policy,” Powell said, signaling that Wednesday's cut was no guarantee that similar action would ensue.

The highly anticipated interest rate vote came at the conclusion of a two-day meeting in Washington of the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank's monetary policymaking arm.

While Powell has acknowledged the strength of the nation's economy — the current 10-year economic expansion is the longest on record, unemployment stands at a near-historic low of 3.7 percent, and the stock market continues to chalk up record highs — Wednesday's move is an attempt to guard the economy against increasing geopolitical tensions, the potential impact of Brexit and fallout from President Donald Trump's protracted trade war with China.

By Lucy Bayly

As Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kept the focus Thursday on global risks that could trigger a Fed rate cut in coming weeks, his colleagues from regional Fed districts painted a rosier picture of continued U.S. economic growth and a solid business outlook.

Mortgage application volume fell 2.4% for the week last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) decreased to 4.04% from 4.07%, with points increasing to 0.37 from 0.36 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.
Despite the rate drop, mortgage applications to refinance a home loan fell 7% for the week, although they were 88% higher than the same week one year ago, when interest rates were 72 basis points higher. Mortgage applications to purchase a home increased 2% for the week and were 5.5% higher than the same week one year ago

Mortgage Rates Surge Lower

November 29, 2018

Mortgage rates surged lower today, falling at the fastest single-day pace in more than a year. In order to see the average lender offer lower rates, you'd need to go back to October 2nd at least. For many lenders, it would be a few weeks before that. Granted, this merely restores rates to what had been 7-year highs at the time, but you know what they say about journeys of 1000 steps and what not...

Much of the improvement was driven by an ongoing reaction to a speech by Fed Chair Powell from yesterday. Markets perceived Powell as softening his stance on rate hikes. US markets reacted to that yesterday, but European and Asian markets took their turn overnight. The opening levels in US markets (which have a bearing on mortgage rates) are heavily influenced by overseas trading during the night. The bigger the overseas movement is, the bigger the domestic effects can be.

With all of the above in mind, bond markets began the day in the strongest territory since mid-September. Given that US markets had already undergone their reaction to Powell, bonds began to erase some of the overnight gains. Most lenders didn't end up raising mortgage rates to account for that market weakness, so it will be passed along with tomorrow morning's rate sheets unless there's another big market move overnight.

Back to back wins for our barn this weekend at GGF.

Mortgage Rates Little-Changed to Begin The Week
October 23, 2018

Mortgage rates didn't move much today. Lenders who made changes to Friday's rate sheets generally did so toward slightly higher rates. Actually, it would be more precise to say those lenders raised upfront costs associated with any given rate. This is typical on days where the broader rate market is slightly weaker, but not weak enough for mortgage lenders to adjust mortgage rates by the standard 0.125% increment.

In the bigger picture, this leaves the average lender quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates of roughly 5% on top tier scenarios.

There were no major developments or economic reports to move the bond market (which underlies rates) today. The rest of the week is on the light side as well, but things pick up on Thursday and Friday.

Bond markets slumbered through mid-day Monday, remaining in recent ranges. My pricing was virtually identical to Friday's. We'll break out of the current consolidation pattern sometime, but doesn't look like today's the day. I'm still locking loans closing within 30 days, and taking a hard look at those closing within 45 days as well.

Federal Reserve raises interest rates for third time in 2018
Shrugging off trade tensions and a softening housing market, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 2.00–2.25%—the third such rate hike in 2018. The Fed has now lifted short-term interest rates eight times since 2015 and has signaled one more rate increase in 2018.

The latest rate increase was widely anticipated by market participants and reflects the continued march toward a normalized rate environment that began in 2015 when the fed funds rate hovered near 0% since the financial crisis.

Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower

Mortgage rates fell modestly today, following a weaker-than-expected report on inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices that consumers pay for various goods. The widely followed "core" reading (which ignores more volatile food and energy prices) fell to an annual pace of 2.2%. Economists were expecting that number to remain at 2.4%.

Lower inflation is good for rates because rates are based on the bond market. Bond investors are paying a lump sum today in exchange for a fixed schedule of payments in the future. Higher inflation means the money they receive in the future may have less buying power. When inflation is expected to rise, bond investors therefore demand higher premiums--another way of saying they're charging higher interest rates to borrowers.

In the grand scheme of things, today's improvement was fairly negligible. Most prospective borrowers will only see the gains in the form of slightly lower upfront costs (a couple hundred dollars, depending on loan size). The broader outlook for rates remains fairly gloomy. We're near the highest levels since 2011, and it's easier to count reasons rates might move higher as opposed to lower.

Rates moved higher in a serious way due to several big-picture headwinds, including: the Fed's rate hike outlook (and general policy tightening), the increased amount of Treasury issuance to pay for the tax bill (higher bond issuance = higher rates), and the possibility that fiscal stimulus results in higher growth/inflation.

Despite those headwinds, the upward momentum in rates has cooled off heading into the summer months. This could merely be the eye of the storm, or it could end up being the moment where markets began to doubt that prevailing trends would continue.

It makes sense to remain defensive (i.e. generally more lock-biased) because the headwinds mentioned above won't die down quickly. Temporary corrections can be explained away, but it will take a big change in economic fundamentals or geopolitical risk for the big picture to change. While that doesn't necessarily mean rates have to skyrocket, there's a good chance it means rates will struggle to move much lower than early 2018 lows until more convincing motivation shows up.
BY: MATTHEW GRAHAM