Beth Moore, Mortgage Broker-Summit Lending

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟳, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 👍
Rates improved last week when data showed both wholesale and consumer inflation is once again moving lower. The Fed left its policy rate unchanged last week and Fed Chair Powell signaled the Fed isn't likely to make any moves at the next meeting in July, with Fed officials projecting between 1-2 cuts this year.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝘆 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
While it was great to see rates move lower last week, we could be seeing rates capped out for the near term, meaning we aren't likely to see them move lower this week and instead are likely to see them get slightly worse. For those in process and closing soon, consider discussing locking with your mortgage pro. Those not yet under contract or in process though shouldn't worry much, rates are not likely to move that much higher.

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Juneteenth holiday: Markets will be closed in observance of Juneteenth on Wednesday, and mortgage rates won't move that day.
- Economic data: Only a couple reports this week to watch, retail sales on Tuesday and PMI data on Friday. If the data reflects economic weakness we could see rates improve just slightly, but stronger data would pressure rates higher on the week.

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟬, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗮 𝗯𝗶𝘁 𝗰𝗿𝗮𝘇𝘆 👎
Rates improved early in the week as markets grew optimistic that the Fed was likely to cut its policy rate at least a couple of times by the end of the year. However, rates jumped higher on Friday when the BLS jobs data showed a lot more jobs were created than what had been forecast, ending the week just slightly better than the previous week.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 ⚠️
Rates this week will definitely move higher or lower, we just don't know which way they will go. Rates should start the week off calm, but Wednesday brings inflation data and the Fed meeting. Depending on how the data comes out and what the Fed says, we could see rates start to improve again or they could move quite a bit higher. There is a lot of risk this week.

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Inflation data: The CPI inflation report comes out Wednesday morning before mortgage rates are released and will affect rates that day.
- Fed meeting and press conference: The Fed is unlikely to cut or hike rates at this month's meeting, however will release its quarterly forecast for rates. Fed Chair Powell's press conference is also likely to cause rates to move Wednesday afternoon.

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟬𝟯, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 ⚠️
Last week saw mortgage rates move quite a bit higher by midweek, only to recover and end the week almost unchanged. Rates rose as consumer confidence readings unexpectedly came in higher on Tuesday, but were helped by slightly better than expected inflation data on Friday.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝘆 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 👍
Mortgage rates are sure to move this week, and hopefully improve, but it will depend on the data. This week brings lots of jobs data, and any signs of a softening labor market will help mortgage rates improve ahead of next week's Fed meeting and inflation data. However, if the labor market data shows strength instead of the expected weakness, we could see mortgage rates move higher.

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Jobs data: This week brings the job opening and labor turnover survey on Tuesday, the ADP private payroll report on Wednesday, jobless claims on Thursday, and the report that will have the most impact on mortgage rates on Friday, the BLS jobs report.
- Other economic data: There are a few other reports this week that will give insight into whether the economy is slowing down or not, which could help mortgage rates this week.

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🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝟮𝟴, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
Mortgage rates were just slightly higher to end the week ahead of the holiday weekend, although it wasn't much. Fed officials were out speaking last week, with most of them saying they needed to see more signs that inflation was still dropping before they would consider voting to lower the Fed policy rate later this year.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝘆 𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
Mortgage rates may continue to creep slightly higher this week, although we shouldn't see any big moves in rates. The big moves for rates could come next week when we get a lot of labor market reports and the BLS jobs data.

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Inflation data: Friday brings the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's favored inflation gauge that tracks what goods and services consumers buy and how much they pay for them. Economists expect to see the smallest increase in inflation so far this year, which could help mortgage rates recover a bit if they creep higher through the week.
- Fed speakers: More Fed officials will be out speaking this week, likely to spread the same message as the members did last week, that the Fed needs to see inflation improve for a few months before cutting rates.

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🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝟮𝟬, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 👍
Mortgage rates improved slightly last week when April's consumer price index report showed inflation easing for the first time in months. Rates were further helped when other data showed retail sales were unexpectedly flat last month.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 👍
This week it is likely that mortgage rates will move slightly day-to-day, but will be basically unchanged for the week. Mortgage rates have settled in to a range anticipating that the Fed will cut rates two times this year, with the first cut likely to come at the September Fed meeting. Rates are not likely to move much lower unless we see more data showing the economy and labor market are slowing down while inflation is easing.

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Fed speakers: Many of the Fed officials will be speaking this week, likely spreading the message that the Fed will keep its policy rate steady until later this year.
- Early close Friday: Markets will close early on Friday and be closed on Monday for Memorial Day. Lenders will also be closed on Monday.
- Economic data: There is little in the way of data this week to influence mortgage rates.

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝟭𝟯, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 👍
Mortgage rates improved a little bit last week as markets remained optimistic that the Fed will cut rates later this year and will not need to instead start hiking rates to fight inflation. Overall it was a quiet week for rates as traders held steady ahead of this week's inflation data.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲, 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲 ⚠️
This week will be a big one for mortgage rates, which could either continue improving or will see a turnaround based on the reaction to the inflation data released this week. Be sure to stay in touch with your mortgage professional to assess the risks to locking or floating if you're currently in the mortgage process.

📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Inflation data: Wholesale inflation data comes out Tuesday, but will have a much smaller effect on mortgage rates than Wednesday's consumer CPI inflation data. The early projections are that we will see a slowing in inflation, which will help mortgage rates improve from here.
- Retail sales data: Because this report comes out on Wednesday at the same time as inflation, it will either help the market rally that improves rates or the sell off that pushes mortgage rates higher.

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🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝟲, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 👍
Mortgage rates improved last week because markets grew more optimistic that the Fed was still committed to cutting rates later in the year despite inflation not falling much this year. Rates started improving after the Fed meeting on Wednesday when the Fed kept its policy rate unchanged and Fed Chair Powell made it clear that policy rate hikes were not yet on the table. Rates continued to improve through Friday's jobs data which showed the first clear sign of a softening labor market.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝗵 👍
This week is not likely to bring about much movement for rates after last week's big moves. Mortgage rates are now back to reflecting two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, and traders will be waiting to see what next week's inflation data shows.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Economic data: There is little economic data this week to affect mortgage rates, but some Treasury auctions this week could have a small effect, especially Wednesday's 10yr auction.
- Fed speakers: Fed members will be out speaking this week, and will likely reinforce the message that the Fed needs to hold rates steady until inflation shows signs of moving lower.

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🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗹 𝟮𝟵, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱 👍
With little economic data and with traders waiting for this week's Fed meeting, rates moved slightly day-to-day but the moves were small and rates ended the week basically unchanged.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 ⚠️
This week brings major labor market data and the Fed meeting and press conference. Although we try to forecast what this will mean for mortgage rates, depending on what is said and how the data comes out this week we could see mortgage rates move significantly up or down. A good week to stay in touch with your mortgage professional.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Economic data: Wednesday brings the first of many jobs reports for the week, and Friday brings the BLS jobs data which will have the greatest effect on mortgage rates. Continued signs of a strong labor market will pressure mortgage rates to move higher, while any surprise weakness could help rates improve, although not likely by much.
- Fed meeting: Wednesday brings the Fed policy statement, where the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged but to signal that cuts are not likely until much later in the year. Powell's press conference after usually causes a strong reaction in mortgage rates.

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🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗹 𝟮𝟮, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
Rates moved higher the early part of last week, but the good news is that they recovered a little bit the second half of the week and showed signs of settling down as markets adjusted to the idea that the Fed is much less likely to be cutting its policy rate until much later this year.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗮𝗺𝗲 👍
Rates are not likely to move much this week, instead markets are waiting for more news from next week's jobs data and Fed meeting. After a couple of weeks of rates moving higher, seeing rates settle down and remain unchanged for the week would actually be a step in the right direction.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Economic data: Only a couple of reports this week that have even a little bit of influence on mortgage rates, including Friday's PCE inflation data (the Fed's favored inflation gauge), not likely to move rates either up or down much though.
- The Fed: Mortgage rates will continue to react to expectations of when and how much the Fed will cuts its policy rate this year. Rates were lower when markets expected 5-6 cuts in 2024, and rates have moved higher now that markets project only 1-2 cuts not likely to start until at least September.

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🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗹 𝟭𝟱, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
Rates moved quite a bit higher last week when inflation readings came in stronger than expected, showing that inflation increased rather than dropped. Markets reacted to the data by dropping the number of Fed rate cuts forecasted for later this year.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝘆 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘀𝗲👎
Rates are likely to creep higher this week as markets adjust to expectations that the Fed may cut rates only twice or even once this year. Strong economic and labor data along with increasing inflation have shelved the idea that any rate cuts will happen before September at the earliest.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Fed speakers: Lots of Fed officials will be out speaking this week, likely sharing the message that the Fed does not need to cut rates yet.
- The Fed: Markets are now expecting only two or even one Fed rate cut this year as Fed officials continue to say that the strong economy and labor market along with stubborn inflation make it too early to even consider cutting rates. Mortgage rates won't move lower unless/until expectations grow again that the Fed will have to cut rates.
- Economic data: Not a lot of data this week, and what we've seen already was bad for mortgage rates.

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🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗹 𝟴, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
Rates moved slightly higher last week when strong economic and labor data made it less likely the Fed will need to cut rates until later in the year, and will likely cut rates less than the three times that was recently projected at the last Fed meeting.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝘆 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘀𝗲👎
Rates are more likely to creep higher this week, especially if the inflation data is disappointing, as markets adjust to the idea that the Fed may hold off on any rate cuts until much later in the year.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Economic data: This week brings important inflation data, which is not likely to be too helpful to mortgage rates. Although economists are projecting a small improvement in inflation, it would take a surprisingly low reading to help rates to rally, and that is unlikely to happen.
- The Fed: Markets are starting to bet on only two Fed rate cuts this year as Fed officials continue to say that the strong economy and labor market along with stubborn inflation make it too early to even consider cutting rates. The Fed will only need to consider cutting rates if we see signs of a weakening economy and a softening labor market that needs stimulus.

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🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗹 𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱 👍
Rates remained basically unchanged last week, not really moving much day-to-day. There was little economic data to worry about, and it was a holiday week with markets closing early on Thursday and closed Friday.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝘆 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲 👍
Although rates will likely start the week worse, there are lots of opportunities to see rates improve by the end of the week with help from data showing a weakening labor market which could support the Fed cutting rates sooner, say in June.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Economic data: There is at least one report each day this week involving jobs and the labor market, which could cause mortgage rates to move day-to-day. Friday brings the most important data, with the highest chance to move rates. Data showing a weakening labor market will help rates, stronger than expected data will hurt rates.
- The Fed: Mortgage rates won't improve much unless markets believe the Fed will cut rates soon. Right now, Fed officials have said they aren't in a hurry to cut rates until they see clear confirmation that inflation is still moving lower. We need signs of softening labor market and weaker economy to create urgency for the Fed to cut rates.

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 𝟮𝟱, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 👍
Rates actually improved last week when the Fed continued to project three rate cuts for 2024 and more to come in 2025. The Fed also signaled that it wasn't yet concerned with the recent uptick in inflation and still felt that it would have no need to raise rates further in this tightening cycle, and left its policy rate unchanged.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝘆 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲 👍
This week is a holiday shortened week that is unlikely to see rates make any significant moves, but we could see slight improvement. The latest trend is that rates may slowly improve ahead of April's labor and inflation data, as markets start to see a June Fed rate cut as more likely after the latest Fed meeting.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Economic data: Although there are some mid tier economic reports that will come out this week, the PCE inflation data comes out on Friday when markets will be closed for Good Friday and we are not likely to see a reaction to that data until Monday. It is unlikely rates move much on this week's data.
- Holiday weekend: Markets close early on Thursday and will be closed on Friday, meaning that most lenders will not change rates after Thursday until next week.

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 𝟭𝟴, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
Mortgage rates moved quite a bit higher last week, giving up all of the gains seen earlier in March. Rates moved higher due to hotter inflation and strong economic data that make it much less likely the Fed will need to cut rates anytime soon.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 ⚠️
This week has the potential to open the door for rates to move even higher, or to settle back down a bit, depending on how Wednesday's Fed meeting and press conference play out.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Fed meeting: Wednesday at 2pm ET, the Fed is expected to leave policy rates unchanged, but will signal what may come at future meetings in its policy statement.
- Fed rate forecasts: At this meeting, Fed members will make their anonymous forecasts for where policy rates will end this year and the next few years. The last projection was for three Fed rate cuts in 2024, and if that falls to two cuts it could pressure mortgage rates higher.
- Powell press conference: Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30pm ET Wednesday is likely to cause volatility in mortgage rates, causing lender repricing and setting the direction for rates over the next few weeks.

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🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 𝟭𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰

𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 👍
Mortgage rates remained unchanged for much of last week, moving lower Thursday and Friday on economic and labor market data. Although more jobs were created last month than expected, prior months were revised to have less jobs created than originally reported, with higher unemployment and lower wages in February.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸'𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 ⚠️
This week has a few rate moving reports, with Tuesday's inflation data being the biggest. If you are in process with a mortgage application, you may want to talk with your mortgage pro about locking Monday ahead of this data. There is less risk for loans closing April or later.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Inflation data: Tuesday AM brings the CPI inflation data, and traders anticipating it could come in showing inflation continued to heat up in February. Last month's report showed hotter inflation, and mortgage rates moved higher and didn't fall again for three weeks. Thursday brings wholesale inflation, which has much less effect on rates.
- Other economic data: Thursday and Friday bring other economic reports like consumer sentiment and retail sales that could influence mortgage rates to end the week.

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