Gaylord-Hansen Team at CrossCountry Mortgage

Market Recap - July 26, 2024

Are you ready?? It’s happening.

There are several things happening behind the scenes with interest rates. It doesn’t look like much yet, but it could happen fairly quickly. Homebuyers and sellers need to start anticipating a move.

What’s been happening?

• Inflation keeps dropping slowly.
• It is almost certain that there will be a Fed Funds rate cut in September.
• Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs), which have been a thing of the past, may actually become very attractive as the interest rate market normalizes.

This news is not front and center. It’s boring! We have a presidential election with all sorts of storylines taking up the airwaves, and that’s not going to change anytime soon.

How will the “lock-in” effect come into play? People want to get on with their lives! They have lots of equity, and they can move to another house.

Assuming those who are “locked-in” can get within 1% of their current interest rate AND/OR use the huge equity gain they have made on their current house to offset their mortgage payment with a larger down payment on the new home, here are the potential number of homebuyers nationally this would “unlock” according to MBS Highway, our trusted resource:

If rates come down to:
• 5.5%: Unlock 9.5 million homebuyers (represents buyers with a current rate of 4.5% or higher)
• 6.125%: Unlock 7.5 million homebuyers (represents buyers with a current rate of 5.125% or higher)
• 6.625%: Unlock 5.5 million homebuyers (represents buyers with a current rate of 5.625% or higher)

We are not that far away! If you blink between now and November, we could be in a completely different market with multiple offers and rising prices again.

So, get educated NOW about what is likely coming in the not-too-distant future. It’s impossible to time the market. However, real estate is long term, and making calculated risks can pay off mightily by understanding what’s ahead.

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Bill Ga***rd, NMLS 680603 | Ga***rd-Hansen Team at CrossCountry Mortgage | 702-757-8131 | https://www.billgaylord.com

Rate Source: Mortgage News Daily (https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com)

The information contained is the viewpoint of the presenter(s). Individuals should consult their own financial representative.

Equal Housing Opportunity. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Certain restrictions apply. Call for details. All borrowers must meet minimum credit score, loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and other requirements to qualify for any mortgage program. CrossCountry Mortgage, LLC. NMLS3029 NMLS1437924 NMLS1628467 NMLS2079383 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).

Las Vegas Pitch Presents Max Hecker

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Max Hecker, Lic. S.0179269 | 702-595-7815 | Hecker Real Estate

Bill Ga***rd, NMLS 680603 | 858-776-6830 | Ga***rd-Hansen Team at CrossCountry Mortgage

The information contained is the viewpoint of the presenter(s). Individuals should consult their own financial representative.

Las Vegas REALTOR® Pitch is sponsored by the Ga***rd-Hansen Team at CrossCountry Mortgage and Creative Collective Media.

CrossCountry Mortgage, LLC. NMLS3029 NMLS1628467 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). NV Mortgage Company License 3259. Supplemental Mortgage Servicer License No. 4352.

Market Recap - June 21, 2024

Two steps forward and two steps back... that’s how it feels sometimes with mortgage rates. We keep seeing signs that the consumer is struggling and inflation is slowly going down, but we just can’t get over the skip in the record and have a sustained rally bringing mortgage rates down.

Some of the data that came out this week showed retail sales are below expectations, the consumer isn’t buying as much, jobless claims remain high, and the Leading Economic Index declined for the 25th month out of the last 26 months reported. Weak economic data almost always leads to lower rates, so what gives?

Interestingly enough, too much government spending has kept rates high.

You hear about the government deficit, but what does this mean?

Fifth Grade Economics 101: A government deficit happens when the government spends more money than it collects in taxes. Imagine if you got $50 a week for allowance but spent $60 every week. You'd be short $10. That shortfall is like the government's deficit. You would have to borrow the $10 to make up the deficit.

As of 2024, the U.S. government deficit is approximately $1.5 trillion. This means the government is spending $1.5 trillion more than it collects in taxes.

When the government spends more than it collects, it needs to borrow money to cover the deficit. It does this by selling bonds. Bonds are like IOUs that the government promises to pay back with interest.

But if there aren't enough buyers (supply & demand) for these bonds, the government has to offer higher interest rates to attract buyers. Higher interest rates on government bonds can lead to higher interest rates on loans and mortgages. This happens because when the government pays more interest, other lenders, like banks, also have to increase their interest rates to compete and attract borrowers.

This is what has been happening and happened this week. When you are talking trillions of dollars, you need a LOT of buyers, and we just don’t have enough buyers to absorb all the IOUs the government is asking for. Thus, rates remain elevated and that is another reason we have not seen mortgage rates drop.

One other stat for you this week: the Fannie Mae Homebuying Sentiment hit a new survey low with 86% of consumers saying it’s a bad time to buy a home.

Now, Warren Buffett is one of the richest individuals in the world and arguably the best investor of all time. When the herd is going one way, he usually goes the other because he knows the herd will eventually follow him.

Homebuyers should be the buffalo and run into the storm as opposed to the cow that tries to run away from the storm and is too slow to beat it. The herd eventually follows. 🦬



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Bill Ga***rd, NMLS 680603 | Ga***rd-Hansen Team at CrossCountry Mortgage | 858-776-6830

Rate Source: Mortgage News Daily (https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com)

The information contained is the viewpoint of the presenter(s). Individuals should consult their own financial representative.

Equal Housing Opportunity. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Certain restrictions apply. Call for details. All borrowers must meet minimum credit score, loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and other requirements to qualify for any mortgage program. CrossCountry Mortgage, LLC. NMLS3029 NMLS1437924 NMLS1628467 NMLS2079383 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).

Las Vegas Pitch Presents Erin Peace

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Erin Peace, Lic. B.0144900 | 702-501-4649 | Peace Realty (https://peacerealtylv.com)

Bill Ga***rd, NMLS 680603 | 858-776-6830 | Ga***rd-Hansen Team at CrossCountry Mortgage

The information contained is the viewpoint of the presenter(s). Individuals should consult their own financial representative.

Las Vegas REALTOR® Pitch is sponsored by the Ga***rd-Hansen Team at CrossCountry Mortgage and Creative Collective Media.

CrossCountry Mortgage, LLC. NMLS3029 NMLS1628467 (https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). NV Mortgage Company License 3259. Supplemental Mortgage Servicer License No. 435

Market Recap - June 14, 2024

Rates dropped under - and stayed under - 7% this week! Barely, but we’ll take it!

CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation data came out a little better than expected with the CORE CPI dropping down to 3.4%. Still quite a bit above the Fed’s target inflation of 2%, but making progress.

Momentum has a way of taking hold, and many times markets move due to changes in direction. While it has definitely been choppy and a bit of a roller coaster, it does appear we are headed downward.

There might not be a big drop in rates coming. Rather, it will likely be a long smooth downward trend. Homebuyers are easing back in to the market and getting used to the elevated rates.

Pulsenomics, in collaboration with Fannie Mae, predicts home prices will continue to rise over the next 5 years. This is a compilation of predictions from 115 real estate experts throughout the country, including educators, economists, banks, mortgage bankers, and other real estate experts.

These experts, on average, predict real estate values will rise over 20% the next 5 years.

If rates drop in 12 months to 6%, on a $400,000 purchase, a homebuyer would gain over $16,000 through appreciation and paying down their mortgage despite paying a premium on their mortgage payment for a year.

Get educated on how buying a home now can truly benefit you long term will help grow your wealth!



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Bill Ga***rd, NMLS 680603 | Ga***rd-Hansen Team at CrossCountry Mortgage | 858-776-6830

Rate Source: Mortgage News Daily (https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com)

The information contained is the viewpoint of the presenter(s). Individuals should consult their own financial representative.

Equal Housing Opportunity. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Certain restrictions apply. Call for details. All borrowers must meet minimum credit score, loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and other requirements to qualify for any mortgage program. CrossCountry Mortgage, LLC. NMLS3029 NMLS1437924 NMLS1628467 NMLS2079383 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).

Las Vegas Pitch Presents Katie Moriarty and Greg Norris

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Katie Moriarty, Lic. S.0186452 | 702-996-0151 | NetWorth Realty Las Vegas
Greg Norris, Lic. S.183634 | 702-587-4127 | Signature Real Estate Group

Bill Ga***rd, NMLS 680603 | 858-776-6830 | Ga***rd-Hansen Team at CrossCountry Mortgage

The information contained is the viewpoint of the presenter(s). Individuals should consult their own financial representative.

Las Vegas REALTOR® Pitch is sponsored by the Ga***rd-Hansen Team at CrossCountry Mortgage and Creative Collective Media.

CrossCountry Mortgage, LLC. NMLS3029 NMLS1628467 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). NV Mortgage Company License 3259. Supplemental Mortgage Servicer License No. 4352.

Market Recap - June 7, 2024

The HUGE discrepancies in the jobs data month over month are just incredibly hard to reconcile! Nothing jives.

The Fed has a “dual mandate.” They are tasked with achieving maximum employment and keeping prices stable. Inflation data is reliable. It was reported last week, and it was flat.

This week was jobs data, and there were big discrepancies between the two reports. The ADP National Employment Report is an independent measure of the change in the U.S. private sector from ACTUAL payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. businesses. It’s ACTUAL data and much easier to rely upon. The downside to the report is it does not capture the government sector for job growth and job loss.

The BLS report, on the other hand, appears to be so unreliable it’s hard to take seriously, and yet, this is the report that Wall Street relies upon to trade!

What makes it so unreliable? A lot of the data is gathered by surveys. The survey responses have been declining. It could be respondents are unwilling to participate or hesitant to provide all the requested information. Thus, the data quality is suspect.

So, the government has to make assumptions and observations from the data and impute the results, which can vary significantly every single month.

There are two components to the BLS report: a Business Survey and Household Survey. The Household Survey showed 408,000 job LOSSES while the very imputed Business Survey showed 272,000 NEW JOBS! The “headline” number reported 272,000 new jobs!

All that said, we can’t do a whole heck of a lot about it. Wall Street is not likely going to go against what the government reports so it turns into a waiting game once again.

Back to mortgage rates... we’re going sideways, and be prepared for this to be the norm for the next 3 months. Who knows what the final countdown to the election will bring?



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Bill Ga***rd, NMLS 680603 | Ga***rd-Hansen Team at CrossCountry Mortgage | 858-776-6830

Rate Source: Mortgage News Daily (https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com)

The information contained is the viewpoint of the presenter(s). Individuals should consult their own financial representative.

Equal Housing Opportunity. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Certain restrictions apply. Call for details. All borrowers must meet minimum credit score, loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and other requirements to qualify for any mortgage program. CrossCountry Mortgage, LLC. NMLS3029 NMLS1437924 NMLS1628467 NMLS2079383 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).

Market Recap - May 31, 2024

It’s a guessing game right now with rates. There is no clear indication that rates will go down, and there is actually some new chatter that rates will go up. What’s up with that?

The economic indicators that primarily drive interest rates are inflation and jobs. The CORE Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), which is the Fed's favorite indicator of inflation, came out today, and it was flat at 2.8%. The Fed's target is 2%. It is being extremely stubborn and not making a lot of progress.

Why would rates go up? Looking ahead to the rest of the year, the PCE is replacing some very low numbers throughout the rest of the year that could actually move inflation up to over 3% by the end of the year. Yikes!

The other driver that could impact rates is the job market. The Fed has a balancing act to keep employment strong and inflation intact. When jobs are lost, people spend less money. Even those who have jobs spend less due to being fearful of potentially losing their job in the future.

If the job market shows cracks, the Fed could potentially start to lower the Fed Funds rate to protect the job market from going into a tailspin. Jobs data comes out next week, so we will be watching closely to see how strong it is.

The wildcard is the U.S. government stepping in and propping up the mortgage-backed securities market. They indicated this will start in June, which will hopefully keep rates stable and potentially move them down.

Despite the persistently high rates, property values continue to increase. The FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) released their House Price Index, which measures appreciation on single-family homes with conforming loans amounts, and it showed a year-over-year increase of 6.7% in March.

Buyers waiting for a crash or for rates to drop will be waiting a LONG time! Make sure to stay education to alleviate fears of making the wrong decision. Indecision leads to no decision. If you know what you are getting into and understand the dynamics of our current real estate market, you can go in with your eyes wide open and PREPARED for the long run.



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Bill Ga***rd, NMLS 680603 | Ga***rd-Hansen Team at CrossCountry Mortgage | 858-776-6830

Rate Source: Mortgage News Daily (https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com)

The information contained is the viewpoint of the presenter(s). Individuals should consult their own financial representative.

Equal Housing Opportunity. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Certain restrictions apply. Call for details. All borrowers must meet minimum credit score, loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and other requirements to qualify for any mortgage program. CrossCountry Mortgage, LLC. NMLS3029 NMLS1437924 NMLS1628467 NMLS2079383 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).

Las Vegas Pitch Presents Alyse Tenney

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Alyse Tenney, S.0172149 | 702-810-2271 | eXp Realty

Bill Ga***rd, NMLS 680603 | 858-776-6830 | Ga***rd-Hansen Team at CrossCountry Mortgage

The information contained is the viewpoint of the presenter(s). Individuals should consult their own financial representative.

Las Vegas REALTOR Pitch is sponsored by the Ga***rd-Hansen Team at CrossCountry Mortgage and Creative Collective Media.

CrossCountry Mortgage, LLC. NMLS3029 NMLS1628467 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). NV Mortgage Company License 3259. Supplemental Mortgage Servicer License No. 4352.

Market Recap - May 24, 2024

Slow and steady… rates ticked up a bit this week, but not significantly. There were a couple of economic reports indicating the economy is still strong. However, if you look deeper into the reports and consider revisions from previous reports, the economy is not as strong as it is portrayed to be.

Next week, we will see some data from Case-Shiller on the housing market to see how home values are holding out. We will also get another read on GDP and the strength of the economy. The big report we watch for is the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) which is the Fed's favorite indicator of inflation.

As for homebuyers, some of those who are waiting on the sideline may be too late to the game. It’s virtually impossible to time the market.

Many people have heard the expression, “You better get comfortable being uncomfortable!” The reality is homebuyers today will have to get uncomfortable before they can get comfortable. Real estate is a long-term investment. It’s not a get-rich quick scheme.

It’s super easy for buyers to get incredibly myopic right now. Everything in the current moment seems dire and absolutely critical. Are they making the right decision? Is this the best time to buy? Should I wait? Again, real estate is a long-term game.

As long as the buyer goes into the purchase of a home being educated and knowing their time frame, time is on their side and will overcome any perceived mistake by purchasing now or waiting.

Buyers and sellers might need to be uncomfortable before they can be comfortable. It’s time to buy! It’s the buying season. Values are not going to crash!



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Bill Ga***rd, NMLS 680603 | Ga***rd-Hansen Team at CrossCountry Mortgage | 858-776-6830

Rate Source: Mortgage News Daily (https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com)

The information contained is the viewpoint of the presenter(s). Individuals should consult their own financial representative.

Equal Housing Opportunity. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Certain restrictions apply. Call for details. All borrowers must meet minimum credit score, loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and other requirements to qualify for any mortgage program. CrossCountry Mortgage, LLC. NMLS3029 NMLS1437924 NMLS1628467 NMLS2079383 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).

Las Vegas Pitch Presents Chris Hollsten

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Chris Hollsten, Lic. S.0184117 | 702-927-7287 | Las Vegas Sotheby's International Realty

Bill Ga***rd, NMLS 680603 | 858-776-6830 | Ga***rd-Hansen Team at CrossCountry Mortgage

The information contained is the viewpoint of the presenter(s). Individuals should consult their own financial representative.

Las Vegas REALTOR® Pitch is sponsored by the Ga***rd-Hansen Team at CrossCountry Mortgage and Creative Collective Media.

CrossCountry Mortgage, LLC. NMLS3029 NMLS1628467 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). NV Mortgage Company License 3259. Supplemental Mortgage Servicer License No. 4352.

Market Recap - May 17, 2024

Do you shop at Walmart? This could have something to do with mortgage rates coming down in the future. We’ll get into that soon. However, we had a pretty stable week for mortgage rates, actually dipping below 7% before ending up a little above 7%. We’ll take it!

This was an important week with inflation data. Fortunately, it came in as expected with Core CPI going down from 3.8% to 3.6%, still a long ways away from the Fed's target of 2%.

There are over 100,000 data points that make up the CPI. Right now, only two components make up 3.3% of the 3.6% Core CPI inflation: shelter and motor vehicle insurance.

All the other components make up the remaining 0.3%. So, if it weren’t for the lack of more affordable housing and fancy new cars with cameras and high-tech auto components, inflation is actually pretty much in tact.

Inflation has acted as a “beat down” effect on the consumer. Not only has credit card debt gone up by over 50% since 2021 to well over $1.2 trillion, the consumer is now paying as much as 25% interest on credit card debt instead of 14%. People are living on credit. Yikes!

Now, back to whether or not you buy at Walmart. Walmart typically thrives in a recessionary period because of their low-cost pricing structure. They are now seeing more upper- and middle-class shoppers buying at Walmart to take advantage of the lower prices. Another sign the consumer is struggling.

Quick story: We had a consultation recently with a buyer who has $180,000 in credit debt in addition to their mortgage. The good news is they bought a home 4 years ago. They are now selling the home, paying off all their debt, putting $90,000 into their bank account, and going from total monthly debt payments of almost $10,000/month down to $4,300/month!

The equity in their current home saved them. There are likely other families that may be in a similar situation. Sometimes, selling a home and using equity in the right way can make life way easier and let you sleep better at night.



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Bill Ga***rd, NMLS 680603 | Ga***rd-Hansen Team at CrossCountry Mortgage | 858-776-6830

Rate Source: Mortgage News Daily (https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com)

The information contained is the viewpoint of the presenter(s). Individuals should consult their own financial representative.

Equal Housing Opportunity. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Certain restrictions apply. Call for details. All borrowers must meet minimum credit score, loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and other requirements to qualify for any mortgage program. CrossCountry Mortgage, LLC. NMLS3029 NMLS1437924 NMLS1628467 NMLS2079383 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).

Market Recap - May 10, 2024

No news is good news, so to speak. There was very little economic data that came out this week. The good news is rates dropped again this week, creeping down closer to the 7% level.

Consumer spending makes up about 2/3rds of Gross Domestic Product or GDP. GDP is the government's measuring stick of the economy. Because the consumer is the key driver of GDP, we must ask: how long the consumer can hold up?

The issue coming in the next few months is the substantial dwindling of savings and the incredibly high credit debt. While April is typically stronger than most months for consumer spending because of the tax refund checks, this money will be gone before you know it.

Summer vacations will just add to the credit and savings issues. Come the fall and going into the election, the consumer could very well be flat on their back hoping to be resuscitated. At this point, the Fed may start to cut the Fed Funds rate.

Next week is the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). We don’t see any major surprises coming. Core inflation will likely drop a tad, which is a positive but not earth-shattering. As long as CPI doesn’t go up, we should see a continued trend downward for rates.



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Bill Ga***rd, NMLS 680603 | Ga***rd-Hansen Team at CrossCountry Mortgage | 858-776-6830

Rate Source: Mortgage News Daily (https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com)

The information contained is the viewpoint of the presenter(s). Individuals should consult their own financial representative.

Equal Housing Opportunity. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Certain restrictions apply. Call for details. All borrowers must meet minimum credit score, loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and other requirements to qualify for any mortgage program. CrossCountry Mortgage, LLC. NMLS3029 NMLS1437924 NMLS1628467 NMLS2079383 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).

Market Recap - May 3, 2024

Have we made it over the last hump of the interest rate roller coaster??🎢 We may just have, and it could be all down hill from here! Rates climbed above 7.5% mid-week and ended up around 7.25% today.

What happened this week? Jobs data and the Fed meeting. There are essentially two things the Fed has been focused on: inflation and jobs.

Last week, we heard that inflation continues to be persistent and not coming down as quickly as the Fed would like. This week was about jobs data and listening closely to what Fed Chair Jerome Powell had to say after their two-day meeting this week.

Job growth missed expectations. The ADP jobs report was a little higher than expected, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report missed. This was the first report in recent memory that actually came in lower than expected, and we saw an increase in the unemployment rate from 3.8% to 3.9%.

One interesting fact is that the average number of hours worked has also been on the decline. In fact, it is almost at the same level of hours worked back in 2011. This is hidden in the numbers but can have a big impact on employees and their overall take-home pay to survive.

What does this mean for interest rates and the real estate market? It could mean we are headed down!

Based on the data, Wall Street might start buying Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which will lower rates. Also, the Fed stated they will also likely start buying MBS again in June, further helping the mortgage rates.

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index came out this week showing home values increased year-over-year DESPITE the elevated interest rates.

Those buyers that can qualify now but are waiting until rates come down could lose out on significant wealth building by waiting. It’s a lack of supply of homes keeping values strong, not an interest rate issue.

As hard as it is to pay a higher mortgage payment than what you may be comfortable with, the house you want may be out of reach if you wait.

Furthermore, you will almost assuredly have a refinance opportunity down the road to lower your payment in the future. This way, you can lock in a lower home price, get the home you want, and eventually get the mortgage payment you desire.

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Bill Ga***rd, NMLS 680603 | Ga***rd-Hansen Team at CrossCountry Mortgage | 858-776-6830

Rate Source: Mortgage News Daily (https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com)

The information contained is the viewpoint of the presenter(s). Individuals should consult their own financial representative.

Equal Housing Opportunity. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Certain restrictions apply. Call for details. All borrowers must meet minimum credit score, loan-to-value, debt-to-income, and other requirements to qualify for any mortgage program. CrossCountry Mortgage, LLC. NMLS3029 NMLS1437924 NMLS1628467 NMLS2079383 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).