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Gold & Silver Short-Term Bearish, Then Going Skyward After bottoming at $2326, gold hit $2395 as anticipated. Our analysis suggests a possible dip to $2280 before a potential rise. If gold breaks $2400, we could see a significant upward movement.Read Our New Article Now >

Biden willing to buy the election with more debt, hurting particualrly the poor an working class, meaning espcially people of color...

Fiscally, the Biden administration is trying to keep it stitched together with a bag full of initiatives supposedly aimed at benefiting the American people that will eventually further impair the American people through ongoing effects of the inflation that Fed and government have wrought, and through the leveraging of the national debt, which is over $34 Trillion. New initiatives are being funded out of that bag of debt.

For the rest of us who can, Buy Gold!

Hartnett: Policymakers Vote "No" to Recession, "Yes" to Inflation Magnificent Inflation

Imminent Risk of Reversal in Gold and Silver

Yesterday we got slightly lower than expected CPI data and much worse than expected retail sales numbers which—if adjusted for inflation—were all negative, signaling recession is already under way.

Although the inflation numbers were lower, the CPI rose 0.3% in the month of April and 3.4% year-over-year. This does not mean that inflation fell; it merely slowed the rate of price increases. Simply put, inflation rose again but at a slower pace.

Coupled with negative retail sales numbers, that signals stagflation: falling economic activity while prices continue to rise. The same thing happened in the 1970s, and we all know how that worked out for Gold and Silver. It was therefore no surprise that the metals rose yesterday and the dollar fell again.

While bad news for the economy, this is good news for precious metals—but only over the medium and long term. I believe the rally in the metals is becoming exhausted in the short term and is due a reversal.

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Bidenomics hurts the poor and working class the most

In the West the increasing war economy is causing high arms spending, which is being channelled directly into the arms industry by means of fiscal stimulus in an unprecedented way, bypassing the population. The booming arms business keeps the economy on its toes and inflation rates high, but at the same time creates great injustice among the populations. Interest rate cuts would only accelerate this split, because those who hold assets such as stocks, real estate, physical precious metals and Bitcoin can gain in inflation and even increase their wealth. However, those who do not have it and depend on the monthly salary payment have no chance against inflation instead.

And that's where the Fed's problem lies: if it stimulates too soon, the crack-up boom escalates, if it waits too long, it risks a deflationary implosion. The fine line of believing that one can actually manage the complex situation has always led to loss of control and crash in the past.

Gold – Dreieck spricht eher für die Fortsetzung der Rally Seit dem Tief am 14.Februar bei 1.985 USD konnte der Goldpreis in den letzten zweieinhalb Monaten um rund 22,5% deutlich zulegen.

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Friday Posts
VBL
APR 27



Hartnett: No Savings (+) No Landing (=) No Relief

If you spent $100 every second of every day it would take you 1,966 years to equal the $6.2 trillion the US government has spent the past 12 months -

M. Hartnett Overview: Hartnett’s Weekly report is presented 3 ways here. The video walk-through includes our translation of Hartnett’s lingo with some commentary. it is useful to new viewers and those preferring a podcast format.

Hartnett: No Savings (+) No Landing (=) No Relief No end in sight to the madness

A Big Problem for the U.S. Treasury

China’s Treasury dump underscores a big problem for the U.S. Treasury.

The federal government is running massive deficits month after month. If China and other countries spurn U.S. debt, who is going to fund this borrowing spree?

Foreign investors make up about one-third of the market for U.S. Treasuries. You could argue that there is still plenty of capacity in the domestic market. The problem is the largest domestic U.S. bondholder is also out of the market.

That’s the Federal Reserve.

In fact, no entity holds more U.S. bonds than the Fed. As of the end of 2022, the Fed owned 35 percent of all domestically held Treasuries. Fed Treasury holdings totaled over $6 trillion.

The Fed generally keeps its big fat thumb on the bond market. By buying and holding U.S. bonds, the central bank creates artificial demand, driving prices higher than they otherwise would be and keeping yields lower. This allows the U.S. government to borrow more at lower interest rates than it otherwise could.

The problem is the Fed is out of the market right now. The central bank is allowing Treasuries to roll off its balance shed with a quantitative tightening policy meant to push down price inflation.

So, if the biggest player in the domestic Treasury market and the second-largest player in the foreign Treasury market are selling bonds, who is going to absorb them all, along with the new debt issued by the U.S. Treasury month after month?

This is one of the reasons Treasury yields continue to climb despite hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut. And that’s a big problem given that the U.S. government has shelled out $522.02 billion on interest payments just halfway through fiscal 2024. That's a 35.9 percent increase over the same period in fiscal 2023. The only category with higher spending was Social Security.

It seems likely the Fed will have to jump back into the Treasury market with another round of quantitative easing to monetize some of the federal government’s debt. The problem is that’s inflationary.

That means you and I are ultimately going to pay for all this through an ever-increasing inflation tax.

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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/philadelphia-fed-admits-us-payrolls-overstated-least-800000

Philadelphia Fed Admits US Payrolls Overstated By At Least 800,000 ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

“The Fed is cutting rates come hell or high water. It doesn’t matter what the data is. The Fed is going to cut rates because the country is broke. They’re not cutting rates because they won the war against inflation: they lost that war. They’re cutting rates because they have to avoid a financial crisis— a banking crisis. They want to try to reelect Joe Biden. They want to try to save the government from having to default and cut social security and cut Medicare, and so everything’s going to be cut through inflation.”

Peter Schiff: Inflation Bloodbath On The Way ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

It's Official, the Fed is Opening the Door To Another Round of Inflation
By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist


Yesterday, the Fed confirmed that it intends to cut rates three times this year, despite the fact inflation is NOT near its target of 2% and is in fact turning back up.



If you're scratching your head on this, there's a very simple answer:



It's an election year. And the Powell Fed is stacked with political hacks.



It is clear that the Powell Fed is full committed to aiding the Biden administration in its re-election bid. After all, why else would the Fed talk about triggering an easing cycle when:



1) The stock market is at all-time highs.

2) Financial conditions are looser now than they were BEFORE the Fed starting raising rates in 2022.

3) The economy is growing, NOT slowing down.

4) Inflation is turning back up.



These are the sorts of conditions in which the Fed usually RAISES rates. Instead, the Fed is going to start cutting rates AND reducing the pace of its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program.



Both of those are HIGHLY inflationary.



In this context, it is clear the Fed has become a political entity. There is no credible economic/ financial reason for the Fed to commit to these policies. At the very least, the Fed should remove one rate cut from its forecast for 2024. Instead, it is clear that the Fed is committed to pushing stocks and housing as high as possible going into the 2024 Presidential election.

Arguably the U.S. data point of the month saw the February employment situation report from the Labor Department show weaker internals even though the key non-farm jobs number came in at up 275,000 versus expectations for a rise of 198,000. The January NF payrolls number was revised down to a rise of 229,000, compared to the original rise of 353,000. Also, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from the January report reading of 3.7%. And the labor force worker participation rate was only 62.5%. All in all, the jobs report falls into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy doves, who want to see interest rates cut sooner rather than later. https://i0.wp.com/nftrh.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/bls3.png?ssl=1 `

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https://nftrh.com/2024/03/07/nftrh-gap-1-filled-detailed-gold-miner-thoughts/

Protected: NFTRH+; Gap #1 Filled & Detailed Gold Miner ThoughtsNotes From the Rabbit Hole NFTRH provides high quality independent stock market, commodity and precious metals research, analysis and strategy for all market conditions.

https://mailchi.mp/goldnewsletter/26022024?e=16787d1051

Midas Touch Consulting Newsletter vom 26.02.2024 +++ Silber – Zähe Konsolidierung setzt sich fort +++ #Silber #Gold #Edelmetalle #Minenaktien #Rohstoffe #Gold.de #GLD #PHYS #GDX #GDXJ #SIL #SLV #XAU #XAG #USD #EUR Nachdem die Silberpreise seit dem letzten markanten Hochpunkt am 4. Dezember 2023 bei 25,91 US-Dollar zunächst sieben Wochen lang um rund 15,5% korrigierten, steckt der Silbermarkt mittlerweile in einer zähen Konsolidierung fest. Dabei sorgt ein trendloses Seitwärtsgeschiebe zwischen ca. 22 und 2...

Do you think that gold is a good investment today?

Yeah, we do. There’s a very limited amount of investable gold. It’s on the order of several trillion dollars, while the total amount of financial assets is closer to $200 trillion.

-John Paulson September 2021

Central Banks Taking All the Gold | Alasdair Macleod The level of interest in gold is way down, says Alasdair Macleod, head of research at Gold Money and https://alasdairmacleod.substack.com. But recent develo...

inflation makes the rich richer and the poor poorer. That, by extension, fuels social divisions, discord and even hatred. One day, revolution?

The Fed and the Treasury Are Juicing the System for the 2024 Election
By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist


The Fed and the Treasury are juicing the markets to help the Biden administration with its 2024 re-election bid. And their actions are going to result in a massive crisis hitting some time in 2025.



The Fed is supposed to be politically independent, but everyone knows that is a fairytale. The Bernanke-led Fed introduced QE 3 a mere two months before the 2012 election to help the Obama administration. Moreover, former Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fisher admitted that the Powell-led Fed intentionally raised rates in December 2018 (triggering a stock market crash) to hurt the economy under former President Trump.



Put simply, anyone who tells you that the Fed doesn't play politics hasn't been paying attention. And it is clear that today's Fed led by Jerome Powell and today's Treasury led by Janet Yellen are actively juicing the markets and economy to help the Biden administration with its claims that the economy is booming and everything is great.



Case in point, the Fed is talking about easing monetary conditions at a time when the stock market is at all-time highs and financial conditions are LOOSER than they were when the Fed first started raising rates! Why do this? To keep stocks higher for the election.

The Fed is not the only one in on this scheme.



The Treasury is pulling out all the stops to help the Biden administration. Typically, the U.S. runs a massive deficit during recessions in order to cushion the economic contraction. Today the U.S. economy is technically still growing... and the Biden administration is running the U.S.'s largest deficit as as percentage of GDP in history (outside of World War II).



Put another way, the U.S. is running emergency levels of social spending at a time when the economy is still growing. And this is adding trillions of dollars in new debt to the U.S.'s liabilities every year.



The U.S. owed $28 trillion in debt when Joe Biden was sworn into office in 2021. It owes $33 trillion today. And the pace of debt issuance is speeding up, not slowing down: the U.S. has added $2 trillion in debt in the last 12 months alone. You can thank Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen for signing off on this insanity.

Worst of all, the above items are happening for political purposes. There are ZERO fundamental reasons for the Fed and the Treasury to be implementing the above policies. But in today's world of political corruption and systemic abuse of power, it's simply how things are.

Do Not Time Gold purchases based on the misleading Biden Admin Job Stats...

not only has all job creation in the past 4 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers, but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since July 2018!

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In Recent History ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/fed-lost-billions-and-youre-going-pay-for-it

The Fed Lost Billions and You're Going to Pay for It! The Federal Reserve recorded a record loss of $114.3 billion in 2023, and you (the American taxpayer) are on the hook. The last time the Fed ran a net operating loss was 1915.

It now takes $1.55 in budget deficit to generate $1 of growth... and it takes over $2.50 in new debt to generate $1 of GDP growth!

The GDP Number Was Great... There Is Just One Huge Problem ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

https://ronpaulinstitute.org/dont-tax-the-rich-end-the-fed/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Don’t Tax the Rich. End the Fed! - The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity Select politicians, government officials, economic elites, and experts arriving at the annual World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland were greeted with an open letter signed by more than 250 billionaires and millionaires. The signers request their respective governments raise their taxes....

Tax Receipts Send A Warning

The change in Federal receipts is essential as the Government’s revenue is from the taxes on both corporate and individual incomes. Unsurprisingly, if revenues and incomes decline, such would reflect economic activity. As shown below, there is a very high correlation between the annual change in Federal receipts and economic growth. Historically, when the yearly change in Federal receipts falls below 2% annual growth, such has preceded economic recessions. Federal receipts’ yearly rate of change is currently a negative five percent (-5%).

Massive Deficit Spending Keeping The Economy Out Of Recession (For Now) ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

The Fed continues to tighten the money supply by shrinking its balance sheet another $53 billion over the past four weeks, executing its Quantitative Tightening program.

Nearly the entire body of technical analysis and fundamental analysis is warning that a stock market top and decline of some significance is approaching. The mainstream financial media is obsessed with the hope that the Fed will cut interest rates aggressively in 2024 and fuel unending prosperity.

History tells us the Fed does not do that until a stock market plunge and economic recession is underway (see our 2024 Market Forecast Report, issue no. 4767, available to subscribers at the U.S. Newsletter Archives button). As long as the stock market remains high, and reported inflation remains twice the Fed's target rate, and reported economic growth remains strong, there is no reason whatsoever for the Fed to cut interest rates. If they do cut interest rates soon, they will be signaling that the real data underneath the reported numbers shows unacceptable economic contraction.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in December, an increase from November's 0.1% rise. Core Inflation CPI came in at 3.9%, about twice as high as the Fed's target for inflation. Of particular note, Motor Vehicle Insurance rose 20.3% for the year 2023. Shelter as measured by rents (the CPI does not measure inflation related to home ownership -- too much reality there, for those numbers would surely be ugly) rose 6.2% in 2023. Prepared food outside the home rose 5.2%.

The CPI measure of true inflation is fiction, of course. Here are a few reasons why:

**1) The CPI measure of inflation completely ignores rising prices in rural areas.

**2) As noted above, the CPI completely ignores price increases related to home ownership acquisition and maintenance costs

**3) The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses what they call "Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment (IASA)" to change actual inflation to a lesser percent than reality, so that actual higher inflation is not reported. The CPI calculation considers several real increases in the price of items in their samples a "distortion." Their method is to pull out of the calculation any price increase deemed to be "extreme."

To quote the BLS on this subject, "distortions are removed from the data prior to calculation . . . and are then applied to the unadjusted data."

There are several political and federal financial motives to understate CPI, of course. One is to hold back rightful cost of living increases to Social Security recipients and federal pension recipients. Another is to delude voters and market participants that inflation is low when it is not.

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Gold Has Started to Figure THIS Out!

The U.S. Government Has Set the Stage for a Debt Crisis By Graham Summers, MBA Since early 2023, numerous pundits and gurus have been calling for a recession. And despite numerous indicators flashing that one is coming… the recession has yet to ar…

If markets fall, it will only get harder and more expensive for pensions to borrow next time.

The alternatives to borrowing will be a fire sale of assets, or a bailout from either the state or federal government.

Given that California is facing a record $68 billion deficit and federal deficits are also skyrocketing, bailouts could be a difficult sell. Liberal California state politicians will likely want to rescue pensions, but they will have to borrow to do it. The state’s creditworthiness could be an issue.

At the federal level, a bailout to maintain lavish retirement benefits for teachers in California is going to be a hard sell among representatives from more conservative states.

Overextended pension systems managed to stay afloat when prices for equity, real estate and bonds all moved higher. The promises made to retirees assumed a mostly uninterrupted bull market in financial assets.

Few state pension systems allocate any of their assets to physical precious metals in order to protect retirees from inflation and credit risk. One notable exception is the Ohio Police and Firefighters Pension Fund which reported acquired a physical gold holding.

Now pension systems that are hitched entirely to financial assets must navigate potential bear markets and tighter borrowing conditions. Many of them may not succeed.

The Reckoning in Pension Funds Draws Closer - Money Metals Explore the impending crisis in pension funds in 'The Reckoning in Pension Funds Draws Closer.' Delve into challenges like asset value fluctuations, borrowing risks, and the impact of market downturns on retirement plans. Essential reading for investors and retirees alike, understanding the future o...

Happy New Year!

Three Factors Driving Gold Bulls Into 2024 ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

November 11th, 2023, Silver - Moderate Interim Correction. November 11th, 2023, Silver - Moderate Interim Correction.

https://goldswitzerland.com/the-cycle-of-evil/

THE CYCLE OF EVIL We are on the road to perdition for the world economy & financial system, ending in a potential global conflict of uncontrollable proportions.