The Winston Group

Before the South Carolina primary tomorrow and Super Tuesday, check out our newly updated Democratic Primary debate report, complete with information on question topics, candidate speaking times, and more
https://winstongroup.net/2020/02/27/winston-group-democratic-primary-debate-report-through-cbs-feb-25/

Before you watch tonight's debate in South Carolina, check out our latest debate report, with up to date analysis of question topics, candidate speaking times, and more https://winstongroup.net/2020/02/25/winston-group-democratic-primary-debate-report-through-nbcmsnbctelemundo-feb-19/

The Winston Group's David Winston's latest piece for Roll Call on the economy and the 2020 election.

Democrats remain in denial over the Trump economy - Roll Call The Democrats’ doom-and-gloom approach to the current economy certainly helps to create opportunities for Republicans this fall, Winston writes.

Check out our latest Democratic Primary Debate report for up-to-date analysis of candidate speaking times, question topics covered, and more
https://winstongroup.net/2020/02/10/winston-group-democratic-primary-debate-report-through-abcapple-news-feb-7/

Check out our Election 2020 Democratic Primary Debate Report for analysis of topics covered, speaking times, and more, in the 2020 primary debates to date https://winstongroup.net/2020/02/04/winston-group-democratic-primary-debate-report-through-cnndes-moines-register/

The WG’s David Winston gives some context and cautions for looking at generic ballot poll numbers.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/opinion/generic-ballot-midterms-winston

Opinion: If the Generic Ballot Is a Midterms Canary, It’s a Cagey One With some caveats, the generic ballot test gives us an idea where the Congressional midterm elections could be headed, David Winston writes.

This issue presents a major opportunity for Republicans to continue building on the progress that has been made and to improve their standing going into the fall -

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/support-for-gop-tax-law-improves-giving-republicans-hope-for-midterms/article/2646549

Support for GOP tax law improves, giving Republicans hope for midterms 'Something has fundamentally changed with the passage of the tax cuts, and that is that the president and Republicans are now all in the sam...

Which issues mattered most in 2016?

The Democracy Fund Voter Study Group released two new reports this morning, including one on issue priorities by David Winston, exploring the views and values motivating the American electorate.

https://www.voterstudygroup.org/publications/2016-elections/placing-priority

Priority Issues in 2016 Election | Democracy Fund Voter Study Group Using voters’ views on the importance of 23 different issues, David Winston provides insight into voters' decision-making in the 2016 presidential election.

Issues matter to voters. And they mattered in 2016.

https://www.rollcall.com/news/opinion/new-study-importance-issue-priorities-2016

Opinion: Issues Matter in Elections Even More Than You’d Think Deciphering what happened in the 2016 election has become a predictable exercise in misinformation.

The question is whether this is a small start back toward the original brand standing, or a settling-in process for the new brand standing of the NFL with the public.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/nfl-woes-three-straight-months-as-americas-most-hated-sport/article/2643126

NFL woes: Three straight months as America's most hated sport For three straight months, the National Football League has been America’s most unpopular team sport.

Don’t miss the WG’s David Winston’s first column for Roll Call - what numbers will matter most for Republicans in 2018?

http://www.rollcall.com/news/opinion/republicans-trump-tax-reform

Opinion: Bottom of the Ninth Two numbers will matter most for Republicans in the 2018 election: how many jobs have been created and how much have wages gone up.

The Winston Group’s latest Sports Poll shows that the NFL favorability has not recovered since September.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/poll-one-third-of-devoted-fans-reject-nfl-not-returning/article/2641017

Poll: One-third of devoted fans reject NFL, not returning Nearly one-third of the National Football League’s best fans are throwing their hands up in disgust over the season of political protests.

“David Winston noted that Trump won the White House with a personal disapproval rating of 60 percent. That suggests voters last November, in addition to really disliking Trump's opponent, chose Trump to accomplish certain goals, even if they weren't fully comfortable with him personally.

"Many voters who supported him last fall were troubled by some of the things he was saying, but were willing to take a risk because they believed the existing group of candidates would not get the needed things done," Winston said. "They voted for outcomes." If Trump achieves those outcomes — most importantly, more jobs at better wages — concerns about his style could become secondary.”

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/byron-york-trumps-12-months-of-style-clashing-with-substance/article/2639565

Byron York: Trump's 12 months of style clashing with substance People who don't like his tone actually like what he's doing. Will it matter during the next elections?

"Now that healthcare hasn't happened, it raises the stakes for tax reform. It's a big deal," Winston said. "If that doesn't happen, where there aren't points on the board that Republicans need, let's not just think about the primaries, we're talking about [problems] in the general election."

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/an-angry-electorate-could-doom-weak-republicans-in-2018/article/2635970

An angry electorate could doom weak Republicans in 2018 Roy Moore's victory in the Alabama special election showed that incumbents need to pass laws, or prepare to be ousted.

For Trump to see sustained growth in approval, he will need to oversee a rise in wages and a continually improving economy, which many Republicans believe starts with tax cuts from the GOP’s reform package.

“He has had a lot of these moments where he goes up and down based on current events, but there has been no structural change,” Winston said. “The structural change will center around the issues of wages and jobs and the economy. He got elected by speaking to these people making less than $50,000 who don’t have a college education in these Rust Belt states. Whether he can get tax reform will be central to how people view his presidency. Until then, it will just be these minor fluctuations.”

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/351647-trump-makes-a-comeback-in-the-polls

Trump makes a comeback in the polls President Trump’s historically low job approval rating has been on the rise in recent weeks, giving the president a boost as the White House works to repeal ObamaCare and pass tax reform.

“Tax reform is incredibly important here,” said longtime GOP pollster David Winston, noting it’s a legislative policy issue for the party that strikes at the heart of voters’ concerns about the economy, jobs and wages. While Republican lawmakers “would prefer to have a president with majority job approval, the electorate at this point just wants to see outcomes and results,” Winston says.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/09/12/eyes_on_2018_as_3rd_house_republican_says_hell_retire.html

Eyes on 2018 as 3rd House Republican Says He'll Retire | RealClearPolitics A second-term Republican congressman announced Monday he would not run for re-election next year, becoming the third targeted GOP member in the past week to retire as the party faces a potentially...

"Trying to compare Trump numbers with prior presidents at this point is very difficult, particularly given that he started with 60 percent unfavorable on election night," said Winston. "He also had a significant amount of support coming from people who had an unfavorable view of him. Of the people that voted for him, 20 percent had an unfavorable view, according to the exit polls."

http://ow.ly/2IWu30evguC

Byron York: Measuring, and mismeasuring, the Trump conundrum Trump's favorable and unfavorable rating -- not his job approval, but whether people hold a favorable or unfavorable view of him -- is virtu...

"Republicans have to transition from the mindset of 'reacting to President Obama' into a new era of creating Republican initiatives that deliver results and provide a governing framework. People want change and they want it soon. They expect Congress and the President to get something done and get government working again for them."

http://www.riponsociety.org/article/great-expectations/

Great Expectations by DAVID WINSTON & MYRA MILLER As Donald Trump reaches the six month mark of his presidency, the media predictably is focused almost solely on the short term. An assessment at six months is …

“People were voting for change,” said David Winston, a GOP pollster. “It doesn’t have to be everything all the time, but there has to be a sense of forward progress. They’re looking for two basic outcomes: more jobs and higher wages. It’s pretty straightforward.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gop-leaders-urge-patience--not-panic--amid-trumps-early-stumbles/2017/04/15/29bb05d8-213d-11e7-ad74-3a742a6e93a7_story.html?utm_term=.b7a020451cd7

GOP leaders urge patience Some Republicans say the party will thrive if Trump fulfills central promises on jobs and wages.

"Republicans, led by former Rep. John Boehner of Ohio, who was then the House minority leader, came up with more than criticism of the new president. His message was, 'Where are the jobs?' ...

David Winston, a Republican pollster who advised GOP leaders about their message, and still advises them, said 'Where are the jobs?' wasn't intended to be 'gimmicky.'

'It was intended to frame the question for the election,' he explained. 'It was the one question that was front and center in everybody's mind. The idea was to focus on the concern the electorate had.'"

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/to-fight-trump-democrats-could-steal-a-page-from-the-gops-playbook/article/2616380

To fight Trump, Democrats could steal a page from the Republicans' playbook ATLANTA — Democrats need a message and a plan. Right now, they have neither. That and their almost maniacal opposition to President Trump is complicating their yearning to reclaim power in Washington, and across the country. It'll be a while before they recover from the tsunami that built up over ei...

After the 2016 election, the Congressional Institute commissioned The Winston Group to conduct a study of middle-class Americans and their dissatisfaction with government—and it is clear that voters are expecting major change. As one focus group participant said, “Something has to change. The middle class is shrinking and this is our last chance.”

To read the full report, a summary, or the poll toplines, click here: http://bit.ly/2kalwmY

After the 2016 election, the Congressional Institute commissioned The Winston Group to conduct a study of middle-class Americans and their dissatisfaction with government—and it is clear that voters are expecting major change. As one focus group participant said, “Something has to change. The middle class is shrinking and this is our last chance.”

Middle-class Americans remain concerned about the future of the country, the study finds. Less than 40 percent of middle-income voters think the country is going in the “right direction”, and a full 44 percent thinks the country is on the “wrong track”. Similarly, almost 60 percent think Washington does not hear them; only 29 percent think elected officials pay attention. This is, however, a change from last year, when only 19 percent thought their voices are heard in Washington.

Voters still feel they are not heard, but even worse, they also believe that lawmakers do not pay attention even when their voices are heard. They often do not feel their government values their opinion and sees them as having little worth.

This presents an opportunity for Members of , as citizens think Members have the “largest role” in ensuring the people are heard – an assumption the Framers of the Constitution made when explaining their work in The Federalist Papers. Forty-three percent said Members had the “largest role”, compared with 27 percent who say individual voters are primarily responsible and 11 percent who said the President is. What metric do constituents have to measure whether the new Congress is listening to them? The poll and focus groups both show that Members and the President can prove they have heard the people by implementing the policies the people supported during the campaign—and the voters have high expectations for significant change.

To read the full report, a summary, or the poll toplines, click here: http://bit.ly/2kalwmY

Thoughts on the health of the middle-class and the government? Comment below and share this post with your friends!

What do President Trump's approval numbers really mean?

The WG's David Winston: "People are making an assessment, and they're not making it quickly...He's got the opportunity because people are open. But that doesn't mean they're going to flip their opinion prior to anything happening."

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/is-the-media-stuck-repeating-mistake-about-trump-polls/article/2615631

Byron York: Is the media repeating mistake about Trump polls? Look anywhere and you'll see it noted that Donald Trump has the lowest job approval rating of any president at this stage in his term. It's true. Go down Trump's approval rating in recent surveys: CBS News 39 percent; Gallup 43; Rasmussen 52; Reuters 45; Economist 48; Quinnipiac 38, and on and on. T...

Do voters feel their voices are being heard? Take a look at the WG's study commissioned by the Congressional Institute to find out what outcomes voters want to see to show they're being heard in the public discourse -

http://conginst.org/2017/02/03/study-voters-frustrated-that-their-voices-are-not-heard/

Study: Voters Frustrated That Their Voices Are Not Heard …

Late-deciding voters did not care about the same things the media cared about. The WG's David Winston dives into the data:

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/444015/donald-trump-win-voters-jobs

Why Trump Won: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs, and Change Neither the Russians nor Comey put Trump in office. Exit polls show that jobs and the economy were the top issue.

"What Republicans need to do is define the value proposition of their healthcare proposal." - the WG's David Winston

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/gop-seeks-to-avoid-its-own-midterm-healthcare-debacle/article/2610914

Republicans plot how to avoid their own midterm meltdown Republicans moving to repeal Obamacare are determined to avoid the political pitfalls that cost Democrats their congressional majorities six years ago. The goal, Republicans say, is to avoid unpopular disruptions — people losing doctors and coverage they like, for example — that soured voters on Pre...

"...the country is still center-right to moderate and the economy was the top issue, prompting some Democrats in depressed areas to choose Trump and 'rock the boat.'"

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/liberalism-reached-new-high-in-2016-and-still-lost/article/2611374 #.WHUEIsrBcwE.twitter

Liberalism reached new high in 2016 and still lost In the final kick to the shins of Democrats, it turns out that the percentage of liberals in America reached a record high in 2016 and they still lost the presidency, according to a new analysis of President-elect Trump's victory. Longtime GOP pollster and adviser David Winston found that of all the...

"The 2016 presidential election was unusual in many ways, but perhaps the overriding characteristic was that both candidates had more unfavorables than favorables when they emerged from the primary process. The country had never seen a political party nominate a candidate that a majority of people viewed unfavorably; but in this election, both parties did..."

Read more: http://winstongroup.net/2016/12/07/rock-the-boat-an-analysis-of-the-2016-presidential-election/

"Rock the Boat": An analysis of the 2016 Presidential Election What did voters tell Washington in 2016? They wanted to "rock the boat." Read through our in-depth 2016 Post Election Analysis to find out how voters defined their choice, and what role deeper co...

What did voters tell Washington in 2016? They wanted to “rock the boat.” Read through our in-depth 2016 Post Election Analysis to find out how voters defined their choice, and what role deeper concerns over the direction of the country, the economy, and the political system played in that decision.

http://winstongroup.net/2016/12/07/rock-the-boat-an-analysis-of-the-2016-presidential-election/

“It’s an interesting theory, but there’s no data to support it."

Find out what idea about the latest presidential election polls the WG's David Winston was commenting on:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/293882-polls-tighten-in-presidential-race

Polls tighten in presidential race Hillary Clinton has a smaller lead heading into the crucial month of September.

It’s no secret that Americans are unhappy with Congress, but what are people displeased with and how could that be changed? Commissioned by the Congressional Institute, the Winston Group delved into Americans’ view of congressional dysfunction to hear directly from people why they disapprove of their elected federal officials and what could be done. http://bit.ly/28JJ1zH

What Americans Think Is Wrong with Congress (and What Should Be Done)