St Louis Storm Chaser

St. Louis is between two zones of severe weather early this evening with storms southeast and southwest of the metro with other storms across northwest Missouri. Latest model guidance suggests storms, some of which could be severe, will be possible across the area by late this evening, likely after ~9-10 p.m.

Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary risks with a low tornado chance.

A Flood Watch is in effect for areas west of St. Louis from 4 a.m. Wednesday through Wednesday afternoon. Forecast model guidance suggests training thunderstorms will be likely across the watch area late tonight through at least late Wednesday morning.

We could see a round of rain and storms Thursday morning with another round of storms likely during the afternoon/evening hours. Some of those afternoon storms could become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds as the main risks.

Today's high occurred this morning with temps falling into the 60s this afternoon into early this evening. Below average temps will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday with rain chances both days. 90s will make a return on Thursday.

Before a cold front moved through the region this afternoon, Lambert had a high of 96° in the late morning hours. Wednesday is looking much cooler with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s across the metro area with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

A Heat Advisory is in effect across the St. Louis metro area from noon to 6 p.m. Tuesday as heat index values up to 107° will be possible within the advisory area.

A cold front will bring much cooler air on Wednesday with highs in upper 70s to low 80s.

Quiet weather is expected across the metro area this week through next weekend with lots of sunshine. The average high for early August is 89°F, and we're looking to be just below normal with highs in the low/mid 80s by midweek through next weekend.

We'll see temps in the 90s across the metro this weekend into early next week, but trends suggest below normal temps will be possible by mid/late next week with highs in the low/mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

Thunderstorms are likely across the area late tonight into early Thursday morning where a few storms could become strong to severe. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.

We did see some severe warned storms across the metro area this afternoon, but the severe threat is diminishing with organized storms well southeast of St. Louis. At least we have been able to cool off this evening with temps in the 70s to low 80s.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 p.m. this evening. Hail up 2" in diameter, damaging winds up to 75 mph and a few tornadoes will be possible with the storms this afternoon/evening.

An Enhanced Risk for severe weather is in place today across the metro as an area of thunderstorms across southeastern Iowa will continue to move southeast this afternoon which will be capable of producing strong, damaging wind gusts and hail with an isolated tornado or two possible.

7/29/2024 8:55 p.m. Radar Update:

A TORNADO WARNING is in effect for eastern Madison into western Bond County in Illinois until 9:30 p.m.

7/29/2024 8:15 p.m. Radar Update:

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect for the storm over far southern Macoupin into northern Madison County until 9 p.m.

Quarter sized hail and 60 mph winds will be possible with this storm. Still seeing some broad rotation northwest of Worden.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across the metro area on Tuesday as a Slight Risk is in place.

Confidence is low on when and where storms form with some suggesting a late afternoon/early evening scenario with other models showing storms late in the evening.

Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats with a low tornado chance.

Trends will be monitored tonight into tomorrow morning.

An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect across the St. Louis metro area from 1 p.m. Monday through 7 p.m. Thursday as heat index values up to 112°F are likely across the warned area during the afternoon hours.

Some beautiful views at the top of Pikes Peak today as some storms rolled through while we were at the top. Temperature dropped down to 46° when one of the storms hit and produced some sleet! As we were making our way to the visitor center at the top still, we saw a lady and a guy with their hair sticking up, which is the sign of possible immediate lightning strike. Something I've never seen in person, and we quickly took shelter as you never want to see that when you're on top of mountains!

Visited Garden of the God's as well before another storm hit.

Saw Twisters tonight. Fairly enjoyable movie, but I wasn't a fan of the ending. 🤷‍♂️ I think the original Twister with Bill and Helen will always be my favorite.

Who else has seen the movie, and what are your thoughts?

Rainfall totals from across the area with the storms we saw early this morning through the afternoon hours.

Forecast models this evening still suggest thunderstorms will move through the metro area late tonight into early Tuesday morning.

A Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) remains in place across the metro area as some of these storms could produce damaging winds and perhaps some hail.

Image: Forecast radar valid at 5 a.m. Tuesday morning.

Severe thunderstorms are ongoing across Iowa into far southwest Wisconsin early this evening with multiple warnings in effect.

A Moderate Risk for severe weather is in place across eastern Iowa into far southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois as there is high confidence of these storms producing damaging wind gusts with one weather station west of Dubuque reporting a 97 mph wind gust. A tornado was also reported around the Des Moines area.

Forecast models suggest this activity will remain north of St. Louis this evening into the overnight hours, but we'll need to watch for additional thunderstorm development across northern/central Missouri late tonight that would slide toward the metro area.

Right now, a Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place from St. Louis and areas off to the north. Based on forecast trends, it wouldn't surprise me if the Storm Prediction Center upgrades the area to a Slight Risk for the damaging wind and perhaps hail threat.

We'll see a relief from the heat Wednesday through next weekend with highs in the low to mid 80s, which is below average for this time of year.

We'll need to watch for the chance of rain and storms late Monday night and Tuesday with better rain and storm chances on Wednesday. A few of the storms on Wednesday could be strong to severe as the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) in place across the metro area.

The forecast high for Tuesday might be too warm as a few forecast models are showing the cold front moving through faster than currently forecast, so trends will be monitored for that potential.

An Air Quality Alert is in effect across the metro area through 8 p.m. this evening due to the Air Quality Index values reaching values in the orange.

We saw quite a bit of rain across the metro area Monday into Tuesday with some places picking up over 4" of precip. Lambert averages 1.34" of rain in the month of July, and we're already at 5.59" so far this month.

A Flood Watch is in effect across the metro area valid from 1 a.m. tonight into Wednesday morning. A Flood Watch means excessive runoff from heavy rain may flood rivers, creeks, streams and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

We're already seeing some rain & thunderstorms across the area with flash flooding in some areas.

Tropical Storm Beryl will continue to move northeast overnight with more rain overspreading the metro area Tuesday morning through Tuesday night.

An additional 2-4" of rain could fall across the metro area with locally higher amounts possible.

Tropical Storm Beryl, which will likely become a hurricane before making landfall in Texas late tonight into early Monday morning, will quickly move off to the northeast Monday into Tuesday and move toward the Missouri and Illinois region by Tuesday morning.

Official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Beryl remain a tropical depression as it reaches the St. Louis metro area and bring several inches of rain to the region Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning.

As much 2-4" of rain could fall across the area with higher amounts possible.

Thunderstorms across southwestern Missouri this evening will continue to move east overnight with more development likely around the metro area late tonight into early Friday morning.

Any remaining rain should exit the area by midmorning with Friday looking beautiful across the metro area with highs in the low 80s and less humid with dewpoints in the low 60s.

Happy 4th of July! Although humid, we should see a nice afternoon across the area with highs in the mid 80s with partly cloudy skies. This evening should be dry generally, but rain and storm chances will increase late this evening into the overnight hours.

Will continue to monitor trends to see if rain and storm development could occur earlier than expected.