Five Dimensions Consultants

Among the topics covered in this week’s security briefings are the following:

Authorities’ reaction to an online video featuring Pharrell William’s song “Happy”, which was produced and published on YouTube by young Iranians, dealt another domestic blow to Rohani’s administration. The cyber-crime unit, which is firmly in the hand of hardliners, ordered the arrest of six Iranians who were involved in the video’s production. The actions were motivated by the hardliners’ aim to tarnish President Rohani’s image in Iran and to call into question his credibility within the international community.

Our Regional Developments report looks at behind the scenes discussions between Iran and Saudi Arabia on key foreign policy issues concerning Bahrain, Lebanon and Yemen (For more information on Iran’s willingness to negotiate with Saudi Arabia, please contact us directly).

In this week’s security report on Bahrain, we examine ongoing informal talks between the government and the main opposition party, al-Wefaq. According to a well-placed government source, negotiations with representatives of al-Wefaq are taking place in order to reach some form of reconciliation.

With regards to Yemen, we trace the recent security advances of the Yemeni military who took control of Seiyun in response to the attack on numerous government buildings by AQAP militants

Among the topics examined in this week’s intelligence briefs are the following:
• The ideological and strategic differences between the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS) and al-Qaeda (the topic is covered in this week’s Terrorism report).
• Iraq’s worsening security situation, which is caused by jihadist groups like ISIS, and how Iran und the US are considering collaborating to prevent a potential civil war in Iraq.
• How the regime’s takeover of Homs could provide an indication of what a partitioned Syria could look like. The report also examines rebel infighting (Jabhat al-Nusra vs ISIS) in Deir al-Zour, as well as heightened tensions between Jabhat al-Nusra and the moderate Free Syrian Army in the south of the country.
• The announcement by Saudi Arabia that it has arrested 44 terror suspects believed to belong to ISIS. Source information reveals that many of these individuals were formerly members of AQAP in Yemen, which highlights the growing polarization within militant Sunni jihadism.

In this week’s intelligence briefs, Five Dimensions Consultants covered the following topics:

How jihadist groups in Egypt have increased attacks on high-level security personnel and appear to be operating with support and intelligence from groups opposed to the opposition, most likely Muslim Brotherhood members.

How oil and gas giant CNPC lost a contract they had with the Iranian government worth US $2.5 billion concerning the exploitation of the Azadegan oil field. The development should serve as a lesson to foreign business in Iran that the Iranian government prioritizes respect to culture, religion and good business practice. (For further advice on Iran’s culture and business practice, please get in touch with us).

Our intelligence brief on Saudi Arabia covers the latest security developments regarding Shia militants in Saudi Arabia. After a shooting in the Shiite village of Awamiya between militants and Saudi Arabia’s security forces, a cache of weapons was confiscated including silencers not dissimilar to those that were confiscated in Bahrain earlier this year. This strongly implies links between Saudi-based militants and anti-regime elements within Bahrain. We also report on Saudi Arabia’s announcement that it has managed to foil a plot by the terrorist group ISIS to carry out attacks in the country as well as on Prince Mohammed bin Sultan’s swearing in ceremony after he was appointed Minister of State for Cabinet Affairs.

Al Jazeera English A well-informed article on al-Qaeda's development three years after Osama bin Laden's killing by U.S. Special Forces, quoting Five Dimensions' anaylists. Good job, Simcox!
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/05/osama-bin-laden-three-years-after-2014511123288215.html

Osama bin Laden: Three years after Abbottabad Osama bin Laden remains one of a kind but it does not mean al-Qaeda poses less of a threat.