Kikase Forex

Today's US August CPI report could shape the Fed’s rate decision on September 18.

If inflation stays high, rate hikes may continue, tightening liquidity.

A lower CPI could lead to cuts, increasing liquidity and drawing investors to riskier assets.

With inflation slowing down and unemployment rising, the Fed may shift its focus to the job market.

Earnings from Adobe, Oracle, and GameStop this week may also influence market sentiment.

can survive the entire 1980 arsenal due to sheer size, enormous , , hardcore muziks and devochek, and sparsity of population.

If precious metals companies were a sector, they would have the highest cash flow margins in the S&P 500 index.

As cryptocurrency becomes more mainstream, so do the tax implications surrounding crypto-to-crypto transactions.

In the U.S., the IRS views each trade as a taxable event, much like selling one property to acquire another.

Whether you're trading Bitcoin for Ethereum or exchanging other digital assets, the sale triggers a capital gain (or loss), which must be reported on your tax return.

For crypto traders, it's critical to understand that short-term trades (under a year) are taxed as ordinary income, while long-term capital gains, held for more than a year, benefit from reduced rates.

Additionally, mining, staking, and airdrop earnings are also classified as taxable income.

However, transferring crypto between wallets or holding crypto without selling does not generate a tax event.

It's essential to keep detailed records of all your transactions to avoid any penalties during tax season.

To minimize tax liability, consider strategies like long-term holding, utilizing tax-free allowances, or spreading trades across multiple years.

Using specialized crypto tax software can help streamline the process and keep you compliant.

Your eyes might be charmed by all that green, but you won’t recognize those returns if you don't have the risk tolerance or risk *capacity* to handle the volatility that comes with it: The U.S. stock market experiences a correction almost every year.

94% of years had a drawdown of 5% or worse
64% of years had a drawdown of 10% or worse
40% of years had a drawdown of 15% or worse
26% of years had a drawdown of 20% or worse

Also from the Ritholtz Wealth Management team:

31 Years of Stock Market Returns in one offering a different perspective.
The past cannot predict the future. However, studying the past can provide a baseline to help set expectations when it comes to risk and a potential range of outcomes.
Here’s a different way to look at returns over various time horizons for the S&P 500 going back to 1993, courtesy of awealthofcommonsense.com

This is how to read this chart:
1) Pick a starting year.
2) Then, go down the number of years and the corresponding square will tell you the annualized return from that starting point.
For example, the 9-year annual return starting in 1993 was 14% per year.

You can see there’s been more green than red since 1993 but there were some painful periods for investors.
There were no losses going out 11 years or more but starting in 1999 or 2000 led to a lost decade. You also had multiple time frames with losses going out 2, 3, 4 and 5 years into the future. Five years can feel like an eternity in the stock market.

The range of outcomes is also interesting to consider.
- The 10 year annual returns ranged from -1% to 17%. Over 15 years there was a high of 14% and a low of 4%.
- On a 5 year time horizon the range was -2% to 29% annualized.

Bottom-line: Your experience in the stock market can vary drastically depending on your timing.
The good news is that the long term removes a lot of variation from the equation. Look at the returns in the bottom left — they’re all in a fairly tight range.
The 31-year annual return from 1993 through 2023 was around 10% per year, right at the long-term averages. Not bad.

Source: Ben Carlson

The banking giant said it remains on track to pay $25 an hour by 2025 — a significant bump from the $15-per-hour minimum in 2018.

They just had to… 🫣

Trump-Harris debate ends in a tie, Crypto goes unmentioned

The much-anticipated debate between US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump turned into a high-voltage showdown. Polymarket data shows that the debate ended in a tie as US Vice President Harris gained 3% while crypto went completely unmentioned.

The 90-minute debate hosted by ABC News started with a polite handshake and quickly turned into a heated exchange of policies and leadership. Highly expected topics like Bitcoin and crypto were not discussed during the debate. However, BTC traded above the $56,000 level during the debate.

The discourse, which began with 52% in favor of Donald Trump, ended up in a tie with 49% for each candidate.

Harris went all-in on the middle class. She shared her personal story of being a “middle-class kid,” pledging tax cuts for families and deductions for small businesses. In contrast, she portrayed Trump as the “billionaire’s buddy”, focused more on helping the ultra-rich.

The Bitcoin Stable Supply Ratio has touched the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since June 2022, signaling a move into the oscillator's support zone.

Historically, this level has only been bearish on one occasion. In all other instances, it has marked either a significant low or the cycle bottom.

What does this low value indicate?

Stablecoins now hold considerably greater purchasing power, with capital poised for deployment.

Excluding the 2020 black swan event, the ratio rarely dips to such levels. Current data continues to suggest that a bottom may be forming.

Tonight’s US presidential debate could have significant implications for the markets.

In June 2024, Bitcoin spiked by 1.1% during a Trump-Biden debate.

PoliFi meme coins showed fluctuations.

During the 2020 election, as uncertainty grew, Bitcoin hit new highs.

Investors and traders will be watching closely to see potential market reactions.

Will the candidates discuss crypto this time?

“A good thief will steal your wallet and get away with it. A great thief will orchestrate a heist and then offer to help solve it.”… 🤧

NEWS: Crypto firm’s CEO resigns after being robbed of company funds at gunpoint. Naturally, we are all targets, especially those of us who attend conferences, have a serious think about your security.

Revelo Intel’s now-former CEO Nick Drakon believes the robbery may have been an inside job and is working with local authorities on the matter.

Please think and assess the following :

Get hardware wallets
Setup multi-signature wallets (if you have size-able positions)
I see so many people posting their addresses online😭

Sadly it seemed this CEO must have had very poor security to have ready access to all the company funds.

Stuff like this is why ETFs are useful for crypto exposure if this is overwhelming, shame the FCA in the UK don't take this into account (It's banned to retail in the UK 😭)

Predicting the future in 1953.

Source: Jon Erlichman on X

🇸🇻 El Salvador became the world’s first country to adopt as legal tender three years ago, to promote financial inclusion, facilitate more efficient remittance payments and attract financial innovation.

Today, they hold a total of 5,866 Bitcoin worth over $319 million.

Which country do you think will follow El Salvador's lead on Bitcoin adoption next? 👇

AI will enhance, not replace, human workers.

Bitcoin still tracks equities, while altcoins steal the show

Bitcoin is still following the stock market, especially with traditional finance investors pulling back as we head into September.

With spot ETF outflows increasing, folks are clearly de-risking before the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts. Altcoins are showing resilience, eating away at Bitcoin’s market dominance.

The first week of September wasn’t kind to Bitcoin. It continued its late-August slump, dropping to $52,756 by September 6. This is below a key level of $56,711, last hit on May 1.

That $56,711 level is important because every time Bitcoin dropped there, it rebounded fast, within two to three days. Right now, the asset’s fate depends on ETF and spot market flows. If equities stabilize, BTC could recover.

May 1 also stands out because global open interest (OI) for Bitcoin hit its first major low after reaching an all-time high of $39.03 billion on March 29.

When BTC drops below these kinds of levels, it usually triggers leveraged liquidations, especially in altcoins. But the good thing about those is they help flush out speculative excess from the market.

Since Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $73,666, the asset has experienced three major price corrections: May 1, July 5, and August 5. Each of these corrections coincided with a drop in open interest.

It’s currently up about 10.4% from the August 5 low, while open interest has increased by 6.67%. This shows a healthy correlation between price and OI.

But analysts don’t see this as a bottom signal, though Bitcoin could stay in this range or rise slightly unless there’s another wave of spot selling or de-risking.

The major reason for Bitcoin’s sell-off last week was the SPX’s downturn. The S&P 500 fell 4.25%, the worst week for the index since March 2023. BTC fell 5.45% during the same period.

For context, in late July, the SPX fell 2.06%, while BTC dropped by 14.9%. This time, the drop was less extreme, which could be a sign that sellers are getting tired.

That would explain why altcoins are now showing more strength. Open interest for altcoins listed on major exchanges (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) is down 55% from its March 25 all-time high. The aggregated open interest is at $8.75 billion.

The ETH/BTC ratio is currently below 0.042, the lowest since April 2021. Since the Merge, Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin by over 44%.

Even though there was a brief uptick before the launch of its ETFs, Ether has continued to struggle against Bitcoin.

NEWS: The SEC has imposed nearly $4.7B in enforcement actions against crypto firms and executives in 2024, a 3,000% increase from 2023, primarily driven by a $4.47B settlement with Terraform Labs and CEO Do Kwon.

Financial Nihilism refers to a mindset or attitude of skepticism or rejection toward traditional financial systems, structures, or values. This can manifest as a belief that the established financial system (such as banks, stock markets, or government-backed currencies) is fundamentally flawed, rigged, or obsolete. People who adopt this view may believe that there is no inherent value in money, financial systems, or the rules that govern them, leading them to embrace alternative financial mechanisms or adopt a more cynical view of wealth and financial management.

In the context of cryptocurrency markets, financial nihilism often plays out as follows:

Distrust of Centralized Financial Systems: Many cryptocurrency enthusiasts are drawn to decentralized systems precisely because they distrust central banks, traditional currencies, or governments. Bitcoin, for example, was created in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, and its supporters often advocate for it as a way to bypass what they see as corrupt or inefficient financial institutions. For a financial nihilist, cryptocurrencies represent a way to reject the power of centralized systems.

Example: After the 2008 crisis, some people lost faith in government intervention and saw Bitcoin as a way to "opt-out" of what they perceive as the unstable and manipulated financial world. They view the idea of trusting traditional savings, pension funds, or stock markets as pointless.

Speculation over Long-Term Value: Financial nihilists may approach cryptocurrencies with a mindset that doesn't emphasize long-term value or stability, but instead sees these assets purely as speculative instruments. They might be willing to embrace extreme volatility, driven by a belief that all money is arbitrary and markets are fundamentally random or irrational.

Example: Some investors in meme coins like Dogecoin or Shiba Inu buy in not because they believe these tokens have intrinsic value or practical use, but because they see them as vehicles for quick profits, regardless of their long-term sustainability. This speculative approach can reflect a nihilistic view that value itself is meaningless.
Rejection of Traditional Economic Theory: Traditional financial systems rely on certain established economic theories (like the idea of intrinsic value, supply and demand, or government-backed stability). Financial nihilists in the crypto world might reject these theories entirely, arguing that the current system only benefits a select few and doesn't reflect reality.

Example: The rapid rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) projects and NFTs shows how financial nihilists may embrace alternative models that appear chaotic or nonsensical within traditional finance. They may see these projects as new forms of value, regardless of whether they make sense from an economic or investment perspective.

"YOLO" (You Only Live Once) Mentality: Financial nihilism is often tied to a "YOLO" attitude, where people engage in high-risk financial behavior because they believe there is no real value or consequence in traditional systems. In the cryptocurrency market, this might translate into making high-risk, high-reward investments without much regard for potential losses.

Example: The rise of r/wallstreetbets on Reddit and its influence on both traditional markets (such as the GameStop stock) and cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin is a prime example of how financial nihilism can fuel risky behavior. Investors throw large amounts of money into volatile assets without following conventional investment advice, embracing chaos as a form of rebellion against established systems.

In essence, financial nihilism in the cryptocurrency world reflects a deep-seated dissatisfaction with the current financial order, combined with a willingness to embrace new, risky, and often unpredictable alternatives like cryptocurrencies, DeFi, and NFTs.

WHAT DO YOU THINK? 🤔

iPhone vs. Bitcoin over the years 👇

🚨BREAKING: Leaked Chainalysis video “suggests Monero transactions may be traceable.”

An anonymous source shared a highly confidential copy of the leaked video with Cointelegraph.

Reddit user u/__lt__, alleges that Chainalysis has been tracking Monero transactions since 2021 using "malicious" nodes.

The user claims the company runs a significant number of Monero nodes across different regions and ISPs to capture transaction IPs and timestamps, potentially gaining transaction data from popular wallets’ default nodes.

By combining this data with fake "decoy" inputs, the user argues that it can significantly reduce the anonymity of Monero transactions.

These claims emerged alongside the reappearance of leaked video images on Reddit, stirring up discussions around Monero's privacy features.

While the leak led to backlash toward Chainalysis’ Monero nodes. u/__lt__ argues that they are just doing their job:

“They are just doing their job: tracing transactions on blockchains. No one says they can’t run nodes that collect transaction and IP info either… I think [Chainalysis] are kind of like whitehat hackers that make Monero more secure.”

What do you make of this development?

Crypto platform Friend.tech sees token dive 26% following admin transfer

Friend.tech transferred control of some of its smart contracts to a null address, which can never be reversed.

The native token of crypto social media platform Friend.tech has plummeted after its team transferred the admin and ownership of its smart contracts to Ethereum’s null address — permanently relinquishing any control over them.

The Sept. 8 transfer was made to “prevent any changes to their fees or functionality in the future,” Friend.tech said on X.

The platform’s Friend.tech (FRIEND) token dropped by nearly 26% to $0.067 in the 24 hours after the transfer, according to CoinGecko.

Ethereum’s null address is a burn address for intentionally destroying tokens. Tokens sent to this address cannot be recovered or reused.

In an X post, Serpin Taxt, a builder behind blockchain reputation protocol Ethos, said that Friend.tech’s move was the “end of an era” and “not at all how I saw it playing out.”

The smart contract change comes three months after Friend.tech announced it would build its own blockchain, “Friendchain,” which left its community confused about the protocol’s future direction.

Friend.tech’s X account later deleted its announcement post, which added to the confusion.

Friction between Friend.tech’s team and its users also worsened when many reported issues claiming the much-hyped FRIEND airdrop in early May.

The token’s market cap, which hit $233.6 million within the first four days of launching, has since fallen to $6.3 million.

The total value locked on Friend.tech has also fallen from its all-time high of $52 million in early October 2023 to less than $3.5 million, according to DefiLlama.

Since late July, daily fees earned on the protocol have consistently been below $1,000, while FRIEND trading volume has had a similar decline.

Friend.tech is native to Ethereum layer-2 Base and allows creators to monetize their content through tokenized shares or “keys.” Its rival platforms include the Theta Network, Hive and Decentralized Social.

Bitcoin funds outflow doubled to $643M last week, up from $319M the week before.

In 2024, Argentina’s stock market has emerged as the best-performing market globally, experiencing a remarkable surge of 44%. This impressive growth can be attributed to the bold economic reforms implemented by President Javier Milei, which have significantly reduced the country's risk profile and restored investor confidence.

Through strategic government spending cuts and the adoption of free-market policies, Argentina is witnessing transformative progress. These reforms are fostering a more stable business environment, encouraging both local and international investment, and positioning the country as a rising star in the global economy.

For instance, cutting public sector costs has allowed more resources to be directed toward private sector innovation, while deregulation has made it easier for businesses to thrive. Investors are now seeing Argentina as a more reliable destination for capital, and the results are evident in the market's outstanding performance. This is a clear testament to the power of strong, market-driven economic strategies.

3 Token Unlocks to watch this week — Aptos, Starknet, and Xai are releasing over $115M worth of tokens.

- Aptos (APT): 11.31M tokens unlock on Sept 11
- Starknet (STRK): 64M tokens unlock on Sept 15
- Xai (XAI): 35.88M tokens unlock on Sept 9

Starknet jumped 18% over the past week, gaining momentum ahead of the 64M Token Unlock Event.

Aptos (APT) slipped 1% last week as investors await the 11.31M Token Unlock on Sept 11.

📊 Is the US in a Recession? Take a Look at These Numbers.

These figures, pulled directly from the latest BLS Jobs Report (Table A1), paint a concerning picture:

Government jobs: UP 📈
Private sector jobs: DOWN 📉
Is this a sign of a slowing economy? What are your thoughts?

📉 Disappointing Jobs Report from the USA: A Closer Look at the Numbers

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly "Employment Situation Summary," commonly referred to as the non-farm payrolls report. While the headline number might seem straightforward, a deeper dive into the data reveals a much more concerning picture.

Here are some key insights:

👥 Civilian Population:

August 2024: 268.86M
August 2023: 267.21M
The population grew by 1.64M, driven by immigration, not new births.
💼 Employment:

August 2024: 161.43M
August 2023: 161.50M
Despite a population increase, there are 66,000 fewer people employed.
📊 Government Jobs:

Government jobs increased by 486,000 over the past year. Why such a sharp rise? Are we seeing a bloated public sector?
🚨 Unemployment + Not in Labor Force:

August 2024: 107.42M
August 2023: 105.71M
An increase of 1.7M people either unemployed or not participating in the labor market despite population growth.
Given these numbers—fewer jobs, higher unemployment—some argue we may already be in a recession, even if it's not officially declared yet.

🔍 The Non-Farm Payrolls: The market expected 160,000 new jobs in August but saw only 140,000, causing the S&P 500 to drop by 1.73%. However, the real story might be even more bleak. A revision of July’s numbers shows only 56,000 new jobs, not the claimed 140,000, and 24,000 of those were government jobs. This points to a potential net loss of private-sector jobs once August’s numbers are revised next month.

The bottom line: The economy is slowing, and the only significant job growth is coming from the government sector.

Earn it
Store it
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Before covid, the US paid $1 billion in debt interest per day; During covid it was $2 billion. Today, it is $3 billion every day. US debt up $64 billion in 1 day to start the month of September, to a record high of $35.3 trillion.



source : zerohedge

Three greatest forces rule the world: Stupidity, Fear and Greed