Raythecaddie

World #1 is again at the top of the leaderboard. The question is, who thinks the leaderboards now a days on the PGA Tour is CRAP!! No wonder why viewer ship is way down

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Here is my 2021 Masters breakdown

**When the Masters was played last November it was a completely different golf course than they will play next week. Last November the course was very soft and the players were able to hit shots around the greens that they will not be able to hit this time, so you will not see 20 under**

What it takes to win the Masters;

1. Must be able to draw the ball (right to left for a righty)
- Not saying that a golfer that hits a fade (left to right shot for a right handed golfer) can’t win, Jack Nicklaus won 6 times and primarily only hit a fade. A lot of the tee shots at Augusta set up best for a draw, or for lefties like Phil and Bubba who hit a power fade. 11 of the 14 holes require a right to left shot off the tee.

2. Experience;
- Most Masters winners have been around Augusta enough times to know which pins you can and can’t attack. 70% of the last 30 winners have finished in the top 10 at least once before, and 6 of the last 8 finished 4th or better at a previous Masters.

3. Have complete control of their approach shots (Strokes Gained Approach)
- Driving accuracy is not that important at Augusta but hitting the greens in regulation is, and even more important is leaving the ball in the right positions on the greens. Gary Player once told me (yes I have had conversations with Mr. Player) that if he could place the ball in the right spots on the greens a high handicapper could 2 putt every hole, and if he could place the ball in the wrong spots a scratch golfer would 3 putt every hole. That’s why Augusta has always suited guys that hit the ball a long ways, the shorter they have in the higher lofted irons they have to hit these greens and better chance of putting the ball in those right spots. Justin Thomas is one of the best iron players in the world and has never finished the season ranked outside the top six in the last 4 years, while DJ currently leads the tour in approach shot performance.

4. Excellent short game (Stokes Gained Around Green)
- Players at the Masters miss on average of 6 greens/round because the greens are so tricky to hit and hold, so your short game better be in top form if you want to win. All but one of the last 12 Masters winners ranked inside the top 10 in scrambling for the week.

5. Current Form;
- The last 7 winners were ranked inside the top 11 on the tour for scoring average in the year that they won, and they also had won a tournament in the 12 months prior to them winning the Masters. This season DJ, JT, Bryson, and Webb Simpson are the only ones to fulfill both.

6. Dominate the par 5’s;
- Other than two champions, every winner has played the par 5’s under par. This season Patrick Reed, Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele rank among the best in par 5 performance, while DJ and JT don’t aren’t in the top 50, but with their length at Augusta they should dominate the par 5’s.

These are the key stats to who is most likely to win the Masters
- The last 11 winners have all ranked inside the worlds top 30
- Only 2 of the last 35 winners sat outside the worlds top 40
- SG Approaching the Green
- SG Around the Green

TOP 13 Ranked Players in the World

1. Dustin Johnson
- Past Champion, Top 10 last 3 years, 9th in SG Approaching the green, 11th SG around the green, 3rd in scoring average. He’s not in form right now his last 5 events were T28 T48 T56 T8 T11. When he won the Masters his previous 2 events before he won the masters last November were T6 T2, also it’s very hard to repeat at Augusta because of all the commitments that are involved. He is the worlds #1 for a reason so its hard to dis-count him.

2. Justin Thomas
- 3rd in SG Approaching the green, 16th in SG around the green, 2nd in Scoring Average which is why he has been in contention all season, last 3 Masters he has been trending to the top finishing 4th last November. He is definitely at the top in all the stats you need to win, and past results at Augusta to get it done on Sunday.

3. Jon Rahm
- 12th in SG Approach, 56th in SG around the green, and he dominates the par5’s which is why he is 9th is Scoring Average. Has been in contention all season with a T5 in his last event, and he has finished in the top 10 the last 3 Masters. If he doesn’t miss too many greens he’ll be at the top on Sunday.

4. Colin Morikawa
- 1st in SG Approach and has 1 win this season, but not in current form, and has only been in 1 Masters before with a T44 finish. So I will look past Colin.

5. Bryson DeChambeau
- 14th in SG Approach, 44th in SG Around the Green, 1st in Scoring Average. Has 1 win and a 3rd this year so he is in form, he has had middle of the pack finishes in his last 3 Masters, but with his length if he is driving the ball well he’ll have a lot of short irons into those pins, which is the main reason he is 1st in Scoring Average so you can’t discount him.

6. Xander Schauffele
- 25th SG Approach and 28th SG Around the Green, dominates the par 5’s which is why he is 8th in Scoring Average and why he is always in contention. He was HOT at the start of 2021, but has been cooling off just a bit lately, had a T2 finish at the 2019 Masters and T17 last November. He has a the game and the stats that are perfectly suited for Augusta, so I think Xander will be near the top on Sunday.

7. Patrick Reed
- Past Champion, middle of the road in all stats, was hot at the start of the season, cooling off a bit now, his last 3 Masters he has a win and a top 10, he does dominates the par 5’s and by being a past champion you can’t discount Cheatrick Reed (sorry Patrick). I think he’ll be in the top 20 after Sunday but not a win.

8. Tyrell Hatton
- 8th in SG Approch, 199th in SG Around the Green, 26th in Scoring Average, middle of the pack in his last 5 tour events, not a great record at Augusta, need I say more?

9. Webb Simpson
- 84th in SG Approach, 9th in SG Around the Green, 7th in Scoring Average which is what you need to hang around at Augusta. Has been hot and cold all season but with his Masters experience and 2 top 10’s the last 2 Masters, he’s be near the top on Sunday. If his iron game is on this year he contend once again, but being 84th in SG Approach is the one stat that my hurt him this year.

10. Patrick Cantlay
- 49th in SG Approach, 6th in SG Around the Green, 13th in Scoring Average, which is why he has been in contention all season. His last 2 Masters were T17 & T9. He has a game built for Augusta, he’s in form, he has experience and the good finishes needed to make this his first Major win.

11. Rory McIIroy
- 81st in SG Approach, 80th SG Around Green, 29th Scoring Average, so his stats are below average this season, and his last 5 events he had 2 top 10’s, 2 cuts, and T28. However he wants a Masters win more than anything and in his last 3 Masters he had T5 T21 T5, so he always performs well there, but will his below average stats this season prevent a Grand Slam win?

12. Brooks Koepka
- This is a tough one…He is just had knee surgery last month, and it’s still not confirmed if he’ll even play this years Masters, he always shows up for the majors and has had 2 top 10’s his last to Masters. If he is 100% healthy he should win it, but if he plays on a knee that isn’t fully healed he won’t be around Sunday let alone the weekend.

13. Tony Finau
- He is long and has all the stats you need to win at Augusta, he has had top 10 finishes 2 out of the last 3 years. He started off the season super hot, but has cooled off as of late. His putting at Augusta this year will be his downfall.

My Sleeper Picks inside the top 30

19. Paul Casey
- good middle of the road stats, this season he has been in the top 10 and in contention week after week, so he is definitely in form. He has Augusta experience, so he could be a good sleeper pick.

20. Lee Westwood
- He is obviously at the top of his game this last month, Last November was his first Masters appearance in a few years, but he always plays well at Augusta and wants his first major more than anything. He will be around on Sunday but will he have the mental strength to finally get a win?

24. Tommy Fleetwood
- Not the best stats for the season but he is playing well right now and in form, Tommy wants his first win on the PGA Tour just as badly as his first major, and he has had top finishes at Augusta in the last 3 years so I like his chances to be near the top on Sunday.

My long shot picks outside the top 30

32. Cameron Smith
- 77th in SG Approach, 22nd in SG Around the Green, 18th in Scoring Average, he is definitely In form his last 4 events, and has 2 top 10’s in his last 3 trips to Augusta. I really like Cameron’s chances this year, he’ll be at the top come Sunday but will he have what it takes mentally to get it done on the back 9?

53. Jordan Spieth (should be ranked higher after his win)
- Past Champion, even though he has middle of the road stats this season it seems like he’s always been in contention week after week trending towards a win, and finally his first win in 4 years. Obviously his confidence entering Augusta will be sky high and being a past champion I like his chances to be around the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.