CMC Markets

With financial data cooling on the back of Fed hawkishness, markets are optimistic about avoiding recession. But is this optimism ahead of a nasty surprise, as it was before the 2007 financial crisis?

Watch our interview with David Keller from StockCharts.com to learn more: https://bit.ly/3qRtoPs

The December fed fund futures are now positioned at 5.45%, progressively aligning with the Fed’s targeted 5.6% for 2023. Consequently, the two-year rate is on a gradual upward trajectory, spurred by these developments.

The back of the yield curve is also rising, with yields surpassing the prior highs reached in October 24. The pattern on the chart resembles a bull flag formation, suggesting potential for a further increase in the 10-year rate to approximately 5.1% or even 5.7%.

The trend is important in the context of the broader yield curve, where the developments indicate a steepening yield curve, driven by the ten-year rate’s surge relative to the two-year rate. This signals the market’s focus towards the prospect of interest rates remaining higher for longer, as well as future growth and inflation expectations.

This theme is accentuated by the behaviour of the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) market, where the ten-year TIPS rate has hit 1.97%, a level not seen for almost a decade. This reflects a tightening monetary policy in real terms, indicative of market expectations for sustained elevated inflation.

Watch the full video by Michael Kramer Mott Capital Management: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRWsFNwHEZ8&t=531s

Yesterday the S&P 500 touched the Bollinger band, and the index has been trading along it recently.

If bulls regain strength above 4450, 4500 could be in sight. Failing to breach 4450 may lead to revisiting 4400, says Michael Kramer Mott Capital Management.

Watch the full video: https://bit.ly/3DZkXEQ

See the latest movements in : https://bit.ly/3OEIWPQ

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The $80 level is now pivotal for WTI Crude Oil. 🛢️

Mish highlights that although there is potential for intraday dips below this mark, it could provide support for further price increases, perhaps towards $85 or $86.

See more of her latest update: http://bit.ly/3Qx2tmA

See the latest movements in Crude Oil: https://bit.ly/3Yz8Wzq

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Looking ahead, if Gold can climb back towards $1,942, it could return towards the 2 August high of $1,950.

Mish Schneider adds that a hotter-than-expected CPI print could even send the yellow metal towards $1,970 or the 50-DMA at $1,972.

Learn more: https://bit.ly/3Qx2tmA

See the latest movements in Gold: https://bit.ly/3rPI5Tn

69% of retail CFD accounts lose money.

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