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Inflation Data Continues Paving The Way For (Eventual) Rate Cuts This week's most important economic data was the PCE price index which is the gold standard of big picture inflation measurement. For those hoping to see rates drop, it was important for PCE to confirm the progress seen in the CPI data (the other major inflation index that came out 2 weeks ago).

Very Calm Week For Rates, Despite Hitting New 6 Month Low While much of this week's news cycle was focused on politics, it was business as usual for the bond market and interest rates.

June Shaping Up Nicely, But Bigger Tests Are Yet to Come After a rocky start to the year, things began to improve for rates and the inflation outlook in May. June took the improvement to the next level, but this week didn't affect the bigger picture.

Big Inflation Victory Gets Rates Back to Lowest Levels Since March This week was hotly anticipated by investors due to the confluence of economic data and events. Depending on the outcome, interest rates stood to gain or lose quite a bit of ground. Thankfully, the news was almost all good.

The Fed is No Longer Eager to Cut Rates And The Market Knows It It was largely a dull week for financial markets in terms of scheduled data and volatility, but numerous Fed speeches helped reiterate what the market thought it already knew.

Hotly Anticipated Inflation Data Keeps Hope Alive The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most important economic report on any given month these days and it came out this week. Markets were happy to see that it merely matched expectations.

Despite Bigger Bumps, Fed Still Sees Path to Lower Rates It was an action-packed week for the housing and mortgage market. Wednesday's Fed announcement was the highlight, but we also got several economic reports that caused rate volatility. Thankfully, it was mostly the good kind.

Expect Tougher Talk From The Fed After This Week's Inflation Data As 2024 has progressed, economic data--especially inflation data--have made it increasingly clear that rates will not be coming down nearly as soon as the Fed (and the market) expected.

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The Case of The Disappearing Rate Cuts The Fed expected to be able to cut rates 3 times in 2024 as recently as March. Financial markets agreed. But the data that's come out since then has everyone singing a different tune.

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Reasonably Resilient Rates Waiting to See Wednesday's Inflation Data Data dependent... That's a phrase that is all too prevalent in financial markets and among members of the Federal Reserve. It refers to the fact that economic data will guide the future path of interest rate decisions.

Fed Surprisingly Calm on Inflation Risk; Home Sales Improve This week's main event was Wednesday's Fed announcement. A rate cut was wholly out of the question, but markets wanted to know how recent inflation surprises changed the Fed's outlook. Turns out, not much!

On The Road To Rate Cuts, Markets Asking "Are We There Yet?" (Spoiler Alert: No) Back in late 2023, we got in the car with the Federal Reserve with the promise of a trip to our favorite place: the land of lower interest rates. In 2024, we keep asking "are we there yet?" The more we ask, the farther we seem to be from the destination.

Lowest Rates in Over a Month. Upcoming Inflation Data Casts a Critical Vote It was a hotly anticipated week for interest rates due to the arrival of the first batch of big ticket economic data since the Inflation report that came out on February 13th. This week's data was much more friendly, but next week's data is even more important.

Rates Defend The Ceiling. High Stakes Week(s) Ahead This week was more active and interesting than the previous example with a few important economic reports helping rates avoid breaking their recent ceiling. Other economic data continues to remind us that rate relief can't come too soon.

Short, Quiet Week, But With Some Hopeful Hints For Housing and Rates Between Monday's holiday market closure and the general absence of highly relevant economic reports, it was a fairly quiet week for interest rates and the housing market, but not without some potentially hopeful developments.

Rates Bounce Higher as Inflation Data Throws a Wrench in The Outlook Inflation is the biggest problem for interest rates these days and this week brought two reports that pushed rates higher. Both are released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and both pointed toward higher inflation in different ways.

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Highest Mortgage Rates in More Than a Month, But There Are Silver Linings So far, 2024 has been distinctly different from the end of 2023. November and December saw rates move lower at one of the fastest paces in decades. In contrast, January has delivered a fairly consistent uptrend.

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Doom, Gloom, Kool Aid, And Warm Porridge Mortgage rates finally broke the 8% ceiling this week after months of gradual upward movement in the 7% range. At the same time, Existing Home Sales fell to the lowest levels in more than a decade. Pretty gloomy, but there are silver linings and perhaps even some overly optimistic Kool Aid to drink....

Rates Reacting to War and The Fed, But Maybe Not For Long After hitting the highest levels in decades last week, mortgage rates dropped sharply at the beginning of this week. At first glance, this was a classic flight to safety following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas Conflict, but at the same time, markets were possibly just as interested in a change in...

Rates Surge Toward 8% After Jobs Data; Can "Spreads" Help? Rates were already high coming into this week. As of last Friday, that meant an average 30yr fixed rate just under 7.5%. As of this Friday, we're closer to 8%.

How Will The Government Shutdown Affect The Mortgage and Housing Markets? It's nearly impossible to consume any news these days without coming across the government shutdown. As always, we're not interested in the politics of the matter--just the question of whether or not the housing and mortgage market should care.

Rates Defended The Ceiling This Week; Bigger Battles Ahead While it's impossible to predict the future when it comes to financial markets, it's usually possible to identify the events that have higher potential to cause bigger swings. Other times, volatility strikes on days when it wasn't entirely expected.

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