Georgia Skywarn

Here is the latest forecast strength and path for Helene. While Helene is only a tropical storm at the moment, it is forecasted to be a major hurricane by the time it makes landfall.

A Flood Watch has been issued for north and central Georgia from Wednesday afternoon through Friday afternoon.

Between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning the greatest flooding risk in expected along and north of Interstate 85. Localized rainfall total near or above 4 inches may result in flash flooding or river flooding.

The arrival of tropical cyclone Helene on Thursday and Friday will allow the flooding threat to expand to all of north and central Georgia. By Friday evening widespread rainfall totals in the 3 to 5 inch range and localized amounts in excess of 8 inches are expected. Due to this rainfall flash flooding and river flooding may occur.

Additional concerns for Thursday and Friday include gusty winds which may result in tree and powerline damage, and an isolated tornado risk in eastern Georgia.

NWS Atlanta>

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of Alabama and Georgia until 11 PM EDT

NWS Atlanta>

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina until 10 PM EDT

NWS Atlanta>

While morning rain has tapered off, additional rounds of rain are on the way becoming more widespread overnight into Monday🌧️
As a result, A Flood Watch will be in effect beginning 7PM this evening for much of North and Central GA.

NWS Atlanta>

[Weather Update- (1/12) 10:44am]
⏲️A quick update on timing for severe weather later today (graphic below)
North and western GA: 12-6pm
East and south-central GA: 2pm-8pm
➡️For the latest forecast information visit:
https://weather.gov/ffc

Severe weather is expected today across much of the southern states including GA. The main threat will be damaging winds across all of GA while a threat for tornados exists for the Atlanta metro counties to southern GA.

Be weather aware and have a plan!

Georgia/Carolinas...
Strong moisture advection will occur today from eastern parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, as a fast-moving upper-level trough moves east-northeastward across the Tennessee Valley. The moist axis will be located just ahead of the trough, moving eastward from the central Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas by afternoon. Instability is forecast to become maximized by late afternoon, as the line of storms approaches in the stronger instability. The potential for wind damage is expected to increase somewhat as the line of storms approaches the stronger instability, from eastern South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Wind damage will be moist likely along the more organized part of the line. A tornado threat could also develop with rotating cells in or ahead of the line. However, in many areas, instability will remain too weak for a greater severe threat coverage. The severe threat is expected to diminish during the early evening, as the upper-level trough outruns the warm sector.

Slight Risk area has been moved more east ahead of the approaching storms to include the Atlanta metro area.

The severe thunderstorm watch could be shifted east to include the counties within the slight risk area by late afternoon into the evening.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for NW Georgia until 6PM.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of North GA, AL and South middle TN.

Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the eastern U.S. today, with the greatest risk across West Virginia, much of Virginia, Maryland, and southern Pennsylvania. Widespread damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes are anticipated. Concentrated areas of wind damage are also expected over parts of the southern Appalachians, including parts of Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

The tornado threat for our area is low, but is not 0%. Please be sure to have a way to receive weather alerts.

There is a slight risk of severe weather across portions of north Georgia this afternoon/evening.

For the areas pictured below: 5% chance of 1” hail and a 15% chance of wind damage (with those two being the primary threats).

A tornado or two can’t be ruled out given the dynamics of the storm system however models indicate more of an outflow dominant setup.

Be weather aware!

*An even greater risk for severe weather will be with tomorrows set up. I’ll make sure to post on that either late tonight or early tomorrow.

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of Alabama and Georgia until 1 AM EDT

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for counties in NE GA until 8:00PM.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of GA.

It's about that time...SKYWARN season!🤓
We will have several opportunities to attend training starting this week & continuing through the month of March. We hope you can join us!⛈️💧🌪️

Thursday Feb 16-Friday Feb 17>

While everyone is focused on the possible winter mix across North GA this weekend, we are focusing at the possibility of severe weather next week.

As we move closer to spring, the potential for the onslaught of low pressure systems moving across the US increases the potential for severe weather in the Deep South.

Synopsis for next week: A potent mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to quickly move from the southern Great Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and weaken on Tuesday into Tuesday night (day 4). Relatively limited moisture return is expected across the Arklatex into the lower MS Valley as the disturbance becomes increasingly displaced from the northwest Gulf Coast. Some risk for isolated severe thunderstorms may occur in the warm sector, but a 15% severe threat is not warranted at this time.

The focus for severe is overwhelmingly concentrated on Wednesday through Thursday across parts of the southern Great Plains eastward into the MS/OH/TN Valleys. Model guidance continues to show a very powerful upper-level system ejecting into the southern Great Plains on Tuesday from the Desert Southwest. Additional modification of the airmass across the northwest Gulf Coast will aid in severe-thunderstorm potential. Surface dewpoints will probably reach the lower-mid 60s in the Arklatex on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Model variability and greater confidence and a farther-west edge of low-level moisture/surface low placement in the southern Great Plains necessitated a shift of the severe probabilities west on Wednesday (day 5). Once model spread is reduced, a 30-percent severe area will likely be introduced. A continuation of thunderstorm activity will likely occur into Thursday as the warm sector potentially develops as far north as the OH Valley. Have expanded the severe risk as there is now greater confidence in the forecast surface-low track on Thursday being across parts of the Midwest. Model spread increases by late in the extended period before severe potential likely becomes very low next weekend.

The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory for most of Georgia which goes into effect at 1PM 2/11/23 until 7AM 2/12/23.

East to Northeast winds of 15-25mph with gusts as high as 40mph.

So far the National Weather Service has determined that at least 10 tornadoes touched down on Jan 12. While most were south of the metro-Atlanta area, one did touch down in Cobb County.

With our most active severe weather season right around the corner, now would be a good time to take a Severe Weather Spotter class so you’re familiar on what to look for and what to report.

For anyone interested, the national weather service has started surveys to determine and rate the tornadoes based on the damage reported. Here you can read the preliminary statements so far:

Text Products for PNS Issued by FFC

Yes, you are reading this right…Georgia 🤷‍♂️

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of north Georgia. Light snow and flurries will begin this morning and persist through this evening. Roadways could become slippery, so please use caution as travel may be hazardous in these areas.

Just because the line of heavy rain and storms has passed, doesn’t mean the threat for a severe storm or tornado is over. There’s new supercells developing in north AL moving towards the GA state line right now.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Rome GA, Cedartown GA and Rockmart GA until 2:15 PM EST

Tornado watch issued for portions of GA until 7PM. This means most of North Georgia is under a tornado watch, including Atlanta and all metro counties.

Tornado threat continues along the eastern advancing line of storms which is expected to move into east central Alabama/Georgia later today.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues to advance eastward through northern Alabama. Within this line, transient circulations have been noted on radar. Ahead of this line, the KMXX (Maxwell Air Force Base) VAD profile depicts 0-1 km storm relative helicity around 150-200 m2/s2. 15z RAOB from BMX indicates upstream 0-1km SRH around 300 m2/s2. The wind field over eastern Alabama/Georgia is expected to increase through the afternoon as flow aloft increases in the next few hours. RAP analysis shows 850 mb winds increasing to around 45-50 kts by 19-20z. Surface objective analysis indicates surface based CAPE around 1000-1500 j/kg across this region and the convective inhibition is reduced. This environment will continue to be conducive to tornado development within the line of storms, with the threat gradually spreading east through the afternoon. A Tornado Watch downstream of WW17 will likely be needed for portions of eastern Alabama and western Georgia this afternoon.

A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Georgia, North Carolina and Tennessee until 5 PM EST