Doomsday Clock

"This is the troubling truth of the demagogue-inspired insurrections we’ve seen in the United States, Brazil, and other countries in recent years: They’re not 'sudden death' moments but single acts in a much lengthier traveling circus of political vanities, blustering fun, social decay, and lust for revenge—set against a backdrop of hunger for power, wealth, and fame."

"How demagogues destroy democracy: a step-by-step global guide," by John Keane, Professor of Politics at the University of Sydney, Australia.

Keane writes on today's demagogues as the harbingers of a new, 21st-century form of despotism: a corrupted, "phantom democracy" in which periodic elections are held but the rich become super-rich and omnipotent—while most of the populace is gripped by feelings of powerlessness.

Part of our September magazine on elections and democracy, this article is available to all readers for a limited time.

How demagogues destroy democracy: a step-by-step global guide Today's demagogues are the harbingers of a new, 21st-century form of despotism: a corrupted, "phantom democracy" in which periodic elections are held but the rich become super-rich and omnipotent—while most of the populace is gripped by feelings of powerlessness.

Join the Bulletin for a look at the current landscape of the war in Ukraine. Military strategist Stephen Biddle and Ukraine expert Melinda Haring join national security reporter Julian Barnes in discussion exploring the military strategies of both Russia and Ukraine and what the next phase of the war could bring.

An update on the war in Ukraine
April 24, 2024 | 10 am Central

Register at: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_asqq0GvUTmeeGzmn5UnyxA #/registration

Photo credit: National Police of Ukraine, changes made, CC BY 4.0 DEED.

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Discover the history of the Doomsday Clock from its creation in 1947 to its 2024 setting of 90 seconds—the closest it has ever been to striking metaphorical midnight.

Explore the Doomsday Clock timeline: https://bit.ly/3U69efl

Our Doomsday Clock playlist features songs from Pink Floyd, Hozier, The Smashing Pumpkins, The Who, and more!

Listen now on Spotify or the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists website: https://bit.ly/4aZ92oP

Doomsday Clock Playlist - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists The Doomsday Clock Playlist is a collection of songs that mention or demonstrate direct inspiration from the Bulletin‘s Doomsday Clock. You can also listen to most of the songs from the playlist on our Spotify account. Know a song we should add to the playlist? The Doomsday Clock continues to be a...

People drawn to power are fundamentally corrupt, according to Frank Herbert the author of Dune.

Which is why Paul Atreides' character was modeled after US President John F. Kennedy, a man who Herbert described as “one of the most dangerous presidents this country has ever had.”

Herbert found Kennedy’s charisma particularly troublesome because his followers adopted a fanaticism around him rather than his ideas.

Much of Herbert’s distrust of government seemingly stemmed from the time before he wrote Dune when he served as an aide to Republican Sen. Guy Cordon of Oregon. That time working in Congress was a formative experience and it’s possible to read Dune as documenting Herbert’s disenchantment with US foreign policy.

While the film does not include all of the different elements in the books, it is focused on the power and corruptibility of leaders, the dangers of religious extremism, and how the thirst for natural resources is used to justify extreme acts of war and environmental degradation—all of which are very familiar to the current residents of Old Terra (Earth).

Read more: https://bit.ly/4azMzz0

"Navigating research with pandemic risk warrants additional precautions. We must create, maintain, and continuously improve a safe, secure, and responsible work environment for researchers in the laboratory, the clinic, and the field. In so doing, and by starting from what unifies us rather than what divides us, there is a chance we can better manage the next pandemic and build public trust along the way."

"How to avoid human-made pandemics" by Filippa Lentzos and Jens H. Kuhn.

How to avoid human-made pandemics The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Independent Task Force on Research with Pandemic Risks agreed that research with pandemic risks should proceed only when the research community and relevant oversight bodies can demonstrate that the research would be conducted safely, securely, and responsibl...

By sending nuclear weapons to the United Kingdom, could the United States be fueling nuclear proliferation?

"Stationing nuclear weapons in non-nuclear weapons states has always been an interesting gap in the nuclear nonproliferation frameworks of the NPT. However, regardless of the differences between 'stationing' and 'proliferating' nuclear weapons, the overall expansion of nuclear weapons still risks a cycle of escalation. Actions like the recent US decision may reduce taboos on the expansive stationing of nuclear weapons, thereby providing incentives for proliferation as a solution to counter increased aggression by countries, like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine."

Read the new article by Janani Mohan, PhD candidate in international studies at Cambridge University as a Gates Cambridge Scholar. She holds a MA in international policy from Stanford University, where she was a Ford Dorsey Fellow.

By sending nuclear weapons to the United Kingdom, could the United States be fueling nuclear proliferation? Stationing US nuclear weapons in the United Kingdom can address near-term security concerns. It may also increase proliferation.

Join the Bulletin for a look at the current landscape of the war in Ukraine. Military strategist Stephen Biddle and Ukraine expert Melinda Haring join national security reporter Julian Barnes to explore Russian and Ukrainian military strategies and what the next phase of the war could bring.

An update on the war in Ukraine
April 24, 2024 | 10 am Central

Register at: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_asqq0GvUTmeeGzmn5UnyxA #/registration

"True, my generation hasn’t lived through Hiroshima and Nagasaki or the Cuban Missile Crisis. We didn’t grow up doing “duck and cover” drills in our kindergarten classrooms (though we were subjected to various other dystopian security exercises) or shuddering at a screening of The Day After. All we supposedly care about are the latest TikTok videos and Instagram reels. So why should we take interest in nuclear issues that we see as relics of our parents’ and grandparents’ generations?

Is my generation a lost cause?

Based on empirical evidence as well as my own work on nuclear disarmament, I reject that notion entirely."

"Gen Z: An untapped pool of support for nuclear disarmament" by high schooler Rishi Gurudevan as part of our Voices of Tomorrow program.

Gen Z: An untapped pool of support for nuclear disarmament Young people drive social movements. Nuclear disarmament advocates should more aggressively recruit help from Gen Z.

Join journalist Paul Tullis as he travels the world looking at the state of kelp forests - one of our most understudied ecosystems.

The underwater Amazon: Kelp forests are crucial to the fight against climate change. Here's how they could be saved. Throughout the world's oceans, forests of kelp—crucial to biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and coastal protection—are under threat from climate change, pollution, and human development. Will they disappear before we fully understand their massive environmental benefits?

"Never has there been such a long waiting period in the lead-up to a country’s nuclear test as North Korea’s seventh nuclear test. Leader Kim Jong-un set the stage by announcing at the Eighth Party Congress in January 2021 a wishlist of nuclear capabilities to be acquired over the next five years. The expert community and governments then offered a string of assessments throughout 2022 on signs of Pyongyang’s preparations for a nuclear test, giving rise to suspense and speculation over when it might be conducted, for what purposes, and what its implications might be. And just like that, North Korea’s seventh nuclear test became a fait accompli—a matter of when, not if.

But the most interesting question about North Korea, however, is not what it will do or when it will do it, but why."

Part of the newest issue of our premium magazine, this article is accessible to all for a limited time.

To do or not to do: Pyongyang’s seventh nuclear test calculations A nuclear test often is as political as it is technical. The intricacies of domestic and external politics play into Pyongyang’s decisions on nuclear testing, going far beyond the technical aspects of such tests.

"The Biden administration’s recent abandonment of Jeff Baran for another term as member on the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission bodes ill for the independence of the agency—and the safety and security of the country," writes Allison M. Macfarlane, who chaired the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission from 2012 to 2014.

Read more:
https://bit.ly/488bN5w

Congress torpedoes a Biden nominee and casts doubt on nuclear safety Biden’s decision to drop Jeff Baran's nomination for another term with the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is a blow to the independence of the agency—and the safety and security of the country.

The US government cancels DEEP VZN, a controversial virus-hunting program.

"Back in 2009, the US government initiated a controversial $200 million program to identify new viruses in animals that might jump the species barrier and spark human pandemics. [...] The idea was to find dangerous pathogens before they cause problems."

"USAID confirmed to the Bulletin that it began shuttering DEEP VZN as it assessed its “priorities and approach to pandemic preparedness,” an agency spokesperson said in a statement. “As a result, USAID and Washington State University began working together in July 2023 to end the DEEP VZN cooperative agreement.”

Read the full article by Bulletin editor Matt Field:

The US government cancels DEEP VZN, a controversial virus-hunting program After doubling down on the controversial strategy of hunting for new animal viruses that could pose pandemic risks before they caused outbreaks, the US government quietly shuttered a program meant to find thousands of new pathogens.

The Trinity test site was chosen, in part, for its supposed remove from human inhabitation.

Yet nearly half-a-million people were living within a 150-mile radius of the explosion, with some as close as 12 miles away. None were warned or evacuated by the US government ahead of time.

Read more about their stories from in an article by journalist and author Lesley Blume, included in our July magazine. This special issue will be available to all readers for a limited time.

Collateral damage: American civilian survivors of the 1945 Trinity test The Trinity test site was chosen, in part, for its supposed remove from human inhabitation. Yet nearly half-a-million people were living within a 150-mile radius of the explosion, with some as close as 12 miles away. None were warned or evacuated by the US government ahead of time.

Without major changes, the review process for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is headed for an unprecedented third failure. A watered-down final consensus document should no longer be the yardstick for measuring success, argues Sanaa Alvira.

How to redefine “success” in upcoming nuclear nonproliferation talks Without major changes, the review process for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is headed for an unprecedented third failure. A watered-down final consensus document should no longer be the yardstick for measuring success.

When Zack Porter moved with his family to Vermont to escape wildfires in Montana, the last thing he expected was for the smoke to follow.

Read Bulletin associate editor Jessica McKenzie's interview with Zack here:
https://bit.ly/46U6Pd2

From Montana fires to floods in Vermont: Interview with a climate migrant When Zack Porter moved with his family to Vermont to escape wildfires in Montana, the last thing he expected was for the smoke to follow.

A proposed new rule on US government management of public lands is open for comment until July 5th.

Supporters see it as a major victory for conservation efforts, but Professor Dustin Mulvaney is not so sure.

Read more:

The Public Lands Rule: Can conservation leasing mitigate impacts from energy and mining? It seems sensible to let conservationists compete with extractive industries to lease and restore public lands. But the Interior Department's Public Lands Rule could not block an oil and gas lease on public lands and may benefit energy and mining interests in some ways.

On Friday, Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin directed his military forces into Russia. Then on Saturday, he seemed to call the rebellion off.

What happened?

https://bit.ly/3pkmuBw

Prigozhin, Putin, and the Russian coup that evaporated In a stunning turn of events, Russian mercenary leader and oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin directed his military forces to take control of a major Russian military headquarters on Friday, then had them set off on a march on Moscow—and then, after reported consultation with Belarus President Aleksandr L...

The US intelligence community released a highly anticipated report Friday evening analyzing the connections between the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a coronavirus research center in the Chinese city of Wuhan where COVID-19 cases were first detected, and the origins of the pandemic. The news dump was not the in-depth unveiling that some seemed to expect.

https://bit.ly/3NrKTwW

What the US intelligence report on COVID-19's origins says The US intelligence community released a highly anticipated report Friday evening analyzing the connections between the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a coronavirus research center in the Chinese city of Wuhan where COVID-19 cases were first detected, and the origins of the pandemic. The news dump was...

The first design for our is now live in our store! As many of you guessed, this design is the first cover the Bulletin ever published, which features the design that eventually became the Doomsday Clock.

Check it out here:
https://bit.ly/440sY7h

From that same issue of the magazine you can also read a 1947 report from the Atomic Energy Commission that looks at what the Commission did after being established “to foster and control the peacetime development of atomic science and technology.”

https://bit.ly/443wz4s

The best way to preserve the stability of New START may be to be prepared to let it go, argues John Erath of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.

https://bit.ly/45D4FxP

New START: To succeed, plan for failure The best way to preserve the stability of New START may be to be prepared to let it go, a US diplomat argues.

On Thursday, Elon Musk's brain-implant company Neuralink announced approval by the US FDA to begin human trials.

As Paul Tullis reported for the Bulletin in 2020, brain computer interface technologies will have a dizzying array of implications once the technology can be widely adopted.

The brain-computer interface is coming, and we are so not ready for it "There’s no fundamental physics reason that someday we’re not going to have a non-invasive brain-machine interface. It’s just a matter of time. And we have to manage that eventuality.” — neuroscience expert Jack Gallant

What does a 15-square-mile plot of undeveloped land have to do with an Estonian oil company, Utah politics, and a 23-year mega drought?

Read more below:
https://bit.ly/3MzhDFC

How the mirage of oil shale riches in Utah threatens the Colorado River Pulling a single barrel of oil out of shale requires two to four barrels of water, which is exactly what the arid Uinta Basin doesn't have.

The location of this year's G-7 summit of world leaders carries special weight. The host city, Hiroshima was the first place to witness the effects of nuclear weapon used in war.
https://bit.ly/3MjO4HQ

Counting the dead at Hiroshima and Nagasaki How many people really died because of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings? It’s complicated. There are at least two credible answers.

Following the 2011 Fukushima disaster, Japan established a new rules and oversight on nuclear power.

Twelve years later, where do things stand?

Read from Marina Fujita Dickson and Yoichi Funabashi in our premium May Magazine.

Fukushima: Lessons learned from a devastating “near-miss” Following the 2011 Fukushima disaster, Japan established a new nuclear regulatory commission and implemented new regulatory mechanisms. Twelve years later, where do things stand?

Did a NATO exercise in 1983 bring the superpowers close to blows?

What about it has experts in disagreements even decades after?

Read from Kjølv Egeland and Thomas Fraise in the May issue of our premium magazine:

Able Archer: How close of a call was it? Did a NATO exercise in 1983 bring the superpowers close to blows?

"Ongoing efforts at documenting and learning from AI incidents will benefit from understanding the benefit of near-miss reporting systems from complex realms such as aviation," writes Kris Shrishak.

Read the article from the Bulletin's premium magazine.

https://bit.ly/3Mmda9a

How to deal with an AI near-miss: Look to the skies Those who work in AI could learn a lot from how near-misses are handled by the Aviation Safety Reporting System

"Much like the Cold War nuclear arms race, today’s US-China AI competition is heavily influenced by domestic forces such as private interest groups, bureaucratic infighting, electoral politics, and public opinion."

Researcher Will Henshall writes for the Bulletin on what's driving the growing AI arms race between the US and China.

https://bit.ly/3Mk2w2C

How politics and business are driving the AI arms race with China Commercial competition, politics, and public opinion are driving AI development in the United States—and unnecessarily escalating the AI arms race with China.

The technological competition between the US and China is more complex than a simplistic battle between democracy and authoritarianism.

Read from Maya Wang, Frederike Kaltheuner, and Amanda Klasing of Human Rights Watch in the May issue of our premium magazine.

https://bit.ly/3pzznHT

The future of technology: Lessons from China—and the US The technological competition between the US and China has been portrayed as a simplistic battle between democracy and authoritarianism. The reality is that people everywhere—including in both these two countries—are all living in a digital world, where surveillance is ubiquitous and accountabil...