Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

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Next Generation Initiative - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists About the Initiative Voices of Tomorrow Rieser Award Board Fellows Editorial Fellows Voices of Tomorrow In its Voices of Tomorrow feature, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists invites rising experts to submit essays, opinion pieces, and multimedia presentations addressing at least one of the Bullet...

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Bulletin Store - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Books Bookstore Two striking coffee table books celebrate the 75th anniversaries of the founding of the Bulletin in 1945 and, two years later, the creation of the Doomsday Clock. Dive into some of the best writing published by the Bulletin so far, or explore a decade-by-decade history of the Clock t...

"The larger US society has the same conflict. It is unable to decide whether the weapons are crucial to keeping the peace and even keeping the world going—the US addition to what I call nuclearism—or whether their very existence, not just their use but their stockpiling, is what threatens our future."

Read the full piece from psychiatrist and National Book Award-winning writer Robert Jay Lifton

The US presidential candidates are not confronting the nuclear threat that haunts the world Should the 2024 American election be won by a team concerned with nuclear truth-telling, it could become the first administration to advocate nuclear abolition—not unilateral disarmament but an international policy of eliminating nuclear weapons, as advocated by the UN.

"Decades of nuclear weapons tests and other radioactive experiments injured or killed scientists, soldiers, and innocent bystanders. Many of them, and their relatives, have never been compensated, but new efforts may change that. A former Senate staffer and expert on the US nuclear program looks back at its harmful effects, and how the government addressed them—or didn't."

Today is the International Day against Nuclear Tests which makes it a good time to revisit the legacy of nuclear testing with this feature from Robert Alvarez.

The fallout never ended As efforts to compensate victims of US nuclear weapons tests continue, a former Senate staffer and expert on the US nuclear program looks back at their harmful effects, and how the government addressed them—or didn't.

Water-related conflicts aren't new, but they are becoming increasingly common.

"Water and conflict trends are going in the wrong direction. Action to prevent, mitigate, and recover from these conflicts is possible and available but insufficiently applied. Investments in the broader effort to create more equitable, sustainable, resilient societies are urgently needed. The good news is that we no longer lack the technological capability to create that world, and action at all levels of society, from the local to the global, will help to foster peace and sustain and protect water resources for everyone."

"Water and war," by Morgan Shimabuku, a senior researcher at the Pacific Institute.

Part of our July magazine, this article is available to all readers for a limited time.

Water and war Water can be a trigger of conflict, a casualty of conflict, or a weapon of conflict. In modern times, water-related conflicts are increasing.

"Whether green hydrogen can enable Questa to transform from a company-town-cum-Superfund-site into a flagship for the clean energy transition will come down to Kit Carson Electric’s ability to secure the funding and water it needs to build the plant, which would not come online until roughly 2030. But there’s a third ingredient, too, which Reyes said will make or break the project: community buy-in."

New Mexico utility wants to invest in green hydrogen, but locals aren't sold—yet In 2022, the Department of Energy named Questa one of the pilot communities for its Communities Local Energy Action Program, which supports low-income and energy-burdened communities that are shifting away from a fossil-fuel-based economy.

"The natural history of the virus in Central Africa changed.

Mpox (formerly monkeypox) went from being a rural zoonotic disease with secondary limited human-to-human transmission in family settings to one primarily spread from person to person, present in urban centers, and positioned to rapidly spread to other regions and countries.

But will the new version of mpox cascade around the globe again? Will it be as severe as it has been in some African countries? And is the world doing enough to deal with the outbreak in Africa? These questions and others are worth considering: The World Health Organization (WHO) has rung the alarm bell that another mpox crises may be developing."

Read more from physician and researcher, Georgios Pappas in his new piece for the Bulletin, "A new mpox variant is taking off in Africa. The WHO plan for stopping it isn’t realistic."

A new mpox variant is taking off in Africa. The WHO plan for stopping it isn’t realistic. Just two years after mpox caused a global health emergency, a new, more dangerous version of the virus is spreading in African countries where it hasn't been seen before. Is this new version capable of global spread? Is the world doing enough to deal with the outbreak in Africa? These questions and....

Our reporter went searching for conversation about existential threats at the DNC. While he found some discussion of climate change and AI in the speeches and side events, it wasn't until he got to an outside art exhibit that he found something on nuclear weapons. One of the artists and organizers, Yosi Sergeant explained it by saying, “Artists show up before people are paying attention. They ring the alarm. They say, there’s a crisis here, we need you.”
https://bit.ly/3X0Rrrd

Searching for nuclear bombs at the Democratic convention With "joy" as the operative word among Democrats rallying at the DNC, nuclear weapons seemed very far from their minds.

"Thus, the riskiest circumstances will happen after a red line has been crossed, not before. Each side will balance between caution and the perceived strategic need to act. Worse, a long sequence of moves that did not result in escalation may create a false sense of security and increase propensity for risk-taking on the part of Western military officials and political leaders. In this case, past is poor predictor, especially when red lines are unknown; the situation may turn on its head without enough warning—or a warning may be disregarded or not understood as a warning—at almost any moment."

From a newly published analysis on nuclear risk and the war in Ukraine by Nikolai N. Sokov, a senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, who previously worked at the Soviet and Russian Ministry for Foreign Affairs and participated in the START I and START II negotiations.

Read more at:

The Battle of Kursk probably won’t result in nuclear weapons use against Ukraine. But Russian escalation vis-à-vis NATO can’t be ruled out. It can be predicted with reasonable confidence that Russia will not threaten, much less use, nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Escalation vis-à-vis NATO, however, is a different matter: That likelihood appears higher, but knowing in advance how high it is may be impossible.

Global threats don’t happen in silos. They shouldn’t be managed separately, either.

"With crisis bleeding into crisis and global threats increasingly intersecting, governments cannot keep playing risk Whac-A-Mole. They must establish risk governance that treats the full range of global threats. This requires setting up a clear direction and strategy for risk reduction. Each government should appoint a specific role—a chief risk officer, if you will—to take charge of the country’s risk. National governments must also develop processes that assess how their policies both increase and decrease risk. And governments must provide fiscal support to efforts that reduce risk so that they can succeed.

As global risk grows—becoming both more likely and lethal—the slow, and at times boring work of risk governance could mean the difference between catastrophe and survival."

Read the new article from Rumtin Sepasspour and Courtney Tee of Global Shield:

Global threats don't happen in silos. They shouldn’t be managed separately, either. Governments must establish risk governance by developing strategies, allocating budgets, and assigning resourcing, among other things.

Satellite observations and geophysical surveys of the flow and form of Antarctica's giant ice sheet point to a continent being changed irreversibly by fossil-fuel burning.

"Antarctica was once considered an isolated, desolate and unchanging extreme environment. More accurately, it’s now considered to be a place of change, connected to the planet with potential consequences for all of us."

Read the full article by Martin Siegert, vice president (Cornwall) at the University of Exeter, UK. He is a glaciologist with over 30 years’ experience in both polar regions.

Part of our July magazine, this article is available to all readers for a limited time.

How we know Antarctica is rapidly losing more ice Satellite observations and geophysical surveys of the flow and form of Antarctica's giant ice sheet point to a continent being changed irreversibly by fossil-fuel burning.

Is America buying nuclear weapons to win a war or to prevent one?

American theorists can’t agree. Disruptive tech demands an answer.

"As a matter of policy, the United States can choose to invest in specific technologies conducive either to preserving mutual vulnerability or to pursuing war-winning counterforce options. This decision should determine which disruptive technologies are prioritized. If policy makers in Washington do not decide what the US nuclear arsenal is for, disruptive technology will essentially decide for them."

Read the new article from Jack O’Doherty, a PhD student at the University of Leicester.

Is America buying nuclear weapons to win a war or to prevent one? American theorists can’t agree on whether the United States is buying new nuclear weapons to win a war or to prevent one. Disruptive tech demands an answer.

"The GOP has threatened to weaponize a potential second Trump term against any and all domestic climate action and will fast-track the most climate-averse policy agenda in the history of our nation to be signed into law by Trump.

But what happens in the United States doesn’t stay in the United States."

"Project 2025: The right-wing conspiracy to torpedo global climate action," by Michael E. Mann, author and presidential distinguished professor and director of the Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media at The University of Pennsylvania.

Project 2025: The right-wing conspiracy to torpedo global climate action The GOP threatens to weaponize a potential second Trump term against any and all domestic climate action. But what happens in the United States doesn’t stay in the United States.

Huge underwater tsunamis?

"For decades, we assumed that the major causes of ocean mixing around Antarctica are the wind, tides, and cooling at the surface—just like the ocean in most other places, in fact. That changed in 2020."

"When glaciers calve: Huge underwater tsunamis found at edge of Antarctica, likely affecting ice melt," by Michael Meredith, ocean scientist at the British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK, Joint Director of the UK National Climate Science Partnership, and Professorial Fellow in Oceanography at Murray Edwards College, University of Cambridge.

Part of our July magazine, this article is available to all readers for a limited time:

When glaciers calve: Huge underwater tsunamis found at edge of Antarctica, likely affecting ice melt Scientists recently discovered when the fronts of glaciers “calve” huge chunks of ice into the ocean, the underwater tsunamis that result can spread for miles and cause strong bursts of mixing of the different layer of warm and cold ocean water. This surprising finding is changing the way we thi...

Did Congress know enough about carbon dioxide and climate change to pass the Clean Air Act in 1970? A 2022 Supreme Court decision said it didn't. However, a science historian's research tells a very different story.

A 2022 Supreme Court decision curtailed the EPA’s ability to limit power plant emissions of carbon dioxide, arguing that when the Clean Air Act was passed, Congress didn't know enough about climate change to intend to regulate CO2.

However, Naomi Oreskes shows that scientists and lawmakers were already well aware that carbon dioxide was warming the planet in 1970. There was even a film about human-caused climate change released in 1958.

Learn more in "Science historian Naomi Oreskes schools the Supreme Court on climate change," an interview by Jessica McKenzie. ⬇️

Interview: Science historian Naomi Oreskes schools the Supreme Court on climate change When the Clean Air Act was passed in 1970, scientists and lawmakers already knew that carbon dioxide was warming the planet, and that regulating emissions could have wide-ranging economic impacts.

The proliferation of standoff missiles and defense systems among European NATO members could bring more risks than benefits.

"Germany is gradually awakening from three decades of slumber in security and defense policy. Yet the current debate remains polarized. Many welcome the US missile deployment in Germany as a straightforward measure that would improve deterrence and defense against Russia, but they appear to be doing so without thoroughly examining the practical and security implications of this decision. Others reject it outright, seemingly driven more by ideology than by analysis. Both positions, however, miss an understanding of the larger strategic context: the beginning of a new missile age in Europe. The future deployment of US ground-launched intermediate-range missiles, while significant, is just one element of this broader transformation of the security architecture of the continent."

"Missiles on the move: Why US long-range missiles in Germany are just the tip of the iceberg," by Alexander Graef and Tim Thies of the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg, Germany.

Missiles on the move: Why US long-range missiles in Germany are just the tip of the iceberg The proliferation of standoff missiles and defense systems among European NATO members could bring more risks than benefits.

Desertification was supposed to be the ‘greatest environmental challenge of our time.’ Why are experts now worried about greening?

The greening of drylands threatens fragile desert ecosystems and scarce water reserves, and shows how varied and unexpected the impacts of global climate change can be.

Read the full article by Fred Pearce, contributing writer for Yale Environment 360. Available on the Bulletin thanks to our collaboration with Climate Desk.

Desertification was supposed to be the 'greatest environmental challenge of our time.' Why are experts now worried about greening? The greening of drylands threatens fragile desert ecosystems and scarce water reserves, and shows how varied and unexpected the impacts of global climate change can be.

The bill to ban TikTok passed in Congress, but some Americans are quitting the app before it gets taken away—"Congress’ complaints about the platform differ significantly from the average user’s."

"Who needs a government ban? TikTok users are already defending themselves," by Hali Mecklin:

Who needs a government ban? TikTok users are already defending themselves The bill to ban TikTok passed in Congress, but some Americans are quitting the app before it gets taken away—and it’s not because they’re worried about the Chinese government.

"Enormous cost overruns in the Sentinel program have engendered a debate about how or if to go forward with a US intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) modernization program. We see five potential paths forward that might reduce costs and maintain or even improve the United States’ strategic posture. But to make the best military and financial choice, the United States government will have to consider how an updated missile force relates to evolving technology in the space and cyber realms and the implications of decisions about ICBM modernization for nuclear arms control."

Click the link in our profile to read the full article by Stephen J. Cimbala, Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Penn State University, Brandywine, and Lawrence J. Korb, a retired Navy captain and national security expert.

A game plan for dealing with the costly Sentinel missile and future nuclear challenges Enormous cost overruns have raised questions about how or if to go forward with the Sentinel, a new US intercontinental ballistic missile. The authors see five potential paths that might reduce costs. But to make the best military and financial choice, the United States will also have to consider ho...

This week, you can join others around the world and fold a paper crane to honor the victims of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, as well as victims of nuclear weapons production and testing. : https://www.cranesforourfuture.org/

Pictures: Bulletin President and CEO Rachel Bronson with the Nuclear Threat Initiative's Outreach and Advocacy Specialist, Jasmine Owens. Paper crane art by Mariia Lapitan-Yashchenko.

"Humans want autonomous machines to be noble, but can they allow the machine to be nobler than they are and still say that they are in charge?"

‘I’m afraid I can’t do that’: Should killer robots be allowed to disobey orders?

Read the new article from writer and researcher Arthur Holland Michel:

‘I’m afraid I can’t do that’: Should killer robots be allowed to disobey orders? Militaries need to show it’s possible to build ethical killer robots that don’t say no, or engineer a safe right-to-refuse while keeping humans in the loop.

In mid-August 1945, within weeks of the end of WWII, Americans were polled on whether they approved of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. 85% answered "yes."

This week marks 79 years since the attacks. What do Americans think about the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki today?

Scott D. Sagan and Gina Sinclair write on what new polling tells us — and compare the results to opinions of Americans in the past.

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Sagan is the Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science, Mimi and Peter Haas University Fellow in Undergraduate Education, Co-Director and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, and Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University.

Sinclair is a research assistant the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. She is a 2024 Nuclear Scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

What do Americans really think about the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki? Scratch beneath the surface of attitudes on the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings, and the American public today, as in 1945, does not display an ethically based taboo against using nuclear weapons or killing enemy civilians. It has a preference for doing whatever was necessary to win the war and save...

79 years ago this week, the United States dropped two atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

How many died in the attacks? We may never be able to fully account for the devastation of one of the world’s deadliest weapons, but here's what we do know.

A new video by Bulletin editor Erik English, based on a 2020 article by Alex Wellerstein, "Counting the dead at Hiroshima and Nagasaki."

How many people were killed by the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki? The only instances of atomic weapons being used against a civilian population occurred in 1945 at the tail end of World War II. On August 6, 1945, “Little Bo...

"Even though it promotes nuclear power as a way to meet climate goals, Poland and other countries in Eastern Europe seem to be using nuclear purchases for geopolitical leverage with the United States. That desire is evident in their parallel actions in the military front. Given the ongoing war in Ukraine and tensions in multiple parts of the world, the combination of geopolitics and nuclear technology may prove dangerous, even as it is ineffective at mitigating climate change."

"Eastern Europe’s purchase of US nuclear reactors is primarily about military ties, not climate change," by Maha Siddiqui and M.V. Ramana, of the the University of British Columbia Ramana is the Simons Chair in Disarmament, Global and Human Security and a professor at the School of Public Policy and Global Affairs at UBC.

Eastern Europe’s purchase of US nuclear reactors is primarily about military ties, not climate change Touted as a climate solution elsewhere, investments in new nuclear reactors primarily serve military interests in Eastern Europe.

"International collaboration to create multinational biological research facilities—as has already occurred for research in physics and space science—could help improve biosecurity and biosafety around the world."

"How international labs could prevent leaks—and produce cutting-edge pathogen research," by Sandra López-Vergès, Senior Health Researcher V and Head of the Department of Research in Virology and Biotechnology at Gorgas Memorial Institute for Health Studies and Sistema Nacional de Investigación (SNI), Secretaria Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SENACYT).

How international labs could prevent leaks—and produce cutting-edge pathogen research International collaboration to create multinational biological research facilities—as has already occurred for research in physics and space science—could help improve biosecurity and biosafety around the world.

The Alps’ iconic glaciers are melting, but there’s still time to save (most of) the biggest.

"Even though the battle for many small glaciers is lost, it is not yet too late to act and to prevent the demise of the biggest ice masses worldwide. While the disappearing mountain glaciers are an unambiguous warning sign, the full impact of climate change on the planet’s fragile ice reserves only unfolds when the largest glaciers and the polar ice sheets start disintegrating. This is what urgently needs to be avoided."

Read about what can be done to prevent the disappearance of the Alps' glaciers from Matthias Huss, glaciologist and senior scientist at the ETH Zürich.

Part of our July magazine, "Water, ice, snow, and the next phase of the climate crisis," this article is available to all readers for a limited time.

The Alps’ iconic glaciers are melting, but there’s still time to save (most of) the biggest Glaciers are the ambassadors of climate change, and their worldwide decline is already having serious impacts on natural hazards, the water cycle, and sea level rise.

With nuclear waste piling up and an underground repository nowhere in sight, Congress must act to unlock temporary surface storage and stop the stalemate.

Former commissioner of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Victor Gilinsky writes: "The disdain for public safety and the rush to open a repository infected the design process and fostered slapdash decisions. These ultimately sank the technical case for the repository at Nevada’s Yucca Mountain. And while in the end the project was shelved by a political act, behind it were Energy Department and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) actions that left a deep residue of public distrust, so deep that there isn’t likely to be a US geologic repository, ever."

Why US nuclear waste policy got stalled. And what to do about it. With nuclear waste piling up and an underground repository nowhere in sight, Congress must act to unlock temporary surface storage and stop the stalemate.

"As an important part of his legacy, President Biden must put guardrails on presidential authority to start nuclear war now before the next dangerous leader gets elected—whomever and whenever that may be. We must never again entrust the fate of the world to just one fallible human. This is not about whose finger should be on the button. This is about making good policy that can keep Americans—and people around the world—alive, regardless of whom US voters happen to put in the White House."

"Trump could win back the nuclear codes. Biden should put guardrails on the nuclear arsenal—now,"

Read the new article by national security expert Tom Z. Collina.

Trump could win back the nuclear codes. Biden should put guardrails on the nuclear arsenal—now. As an important part of his legacy, President Biden should put guardrails on presidential authority to start nuclear war now before the next dangerous leader gets elected.

"I do object to people saying we can’t negotiate with the Russians. I think there will be a long period when we’ll have very little trust or confidence in the Russians in any way, shape, or form. But it’s important to think about nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons arms control as being associated with constraining and ensuring that an existential threat to humanity does not get out of hand. For that reason, it’s worth it."

On May 1, Laurel Baker sat down with Rose Gottemoeller, former Deputy Secretary General of NATO, chief United States negotiator of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START, a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the US and Russia), and member of the Bulletin's Board of Sponsors.

The interview covered the current nuclear threat matrix, including insights on the effects of emerging technologies on strategic stability; Russian and Chinese nuclear challenges; and lessons learned from high-stakes arms control negotiations.

Baker is the 2024 Rising Expert on Geostrategy in the Rising Experts Program at Young Professionals in Foreign Policy, currently working for Pacific Northwest National Laboratory as a National Nuclear Security Administration Graduate Fellow.

Interview: Rose Gottemoeller on the precarious future of arms control In this interview, American diplomat Rose Gottemoeller discusses reengaging with a saber-rattling Russia, negotiating with China, and how arms control frameworks can adapt to AI and other emerging technologies.