HCEO

Using k-means clustering, a machine learning technique, and data from the Health and Retirement Study to characterize health during middle and old age, from Margherita Borella, Francisco A. Bullano, Mariacristina De Nardi, Benjamin Krueger, and Elena Manresa https://www.nber.org/papers/w32799

We know that health affects many economic outcomes, but the mechanisms are not well understood. In a new NBER working paper, HCEO member Mariacristina De Nardi and colleagues show that health status in middle and old age depends more on past health dynamics than on age, marital status, education, gender, race, health-related behaviors, and health insurance status,

Health Inequality and Health Types Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.

The likelihood of married women entering the workforce increases by 60% when their husbands lose their jobs. In a new working paper, HCEO member NezihGuner quantifies the impact of this so-called "added worker effect" on aggregate labor outcomes. (with coauthors Yuliya Kulikova and Arnau Valladares-Esteban)

Does the Added Worker Effect Matter? | HCEO Author(s) Nezih Guner Yuliya Kulikova Arnau Valladares-Esteban In the US, the likelihood of a married woman entering the labor force in a given month increases by 60% if her husband loses his job, known as the added worker effect. However, only 1.5% to 3.5% of married women entering the labor force....

Congratulations to HCEO member Flavio Cunha and coauthors Irma Elo and Jennifer Culhane. They shared the Journal of Econometrics' 2024 Aigner Award for best empirical paper for their work on how mothers' expectations for technical skill formation predict their investments in their children. Dr. Cunha leads two of our global research networks.

www.sciencedirect.com

HCEO member Janet Currie and colleagues analyze the many factors that shape doctor decision-making: physician skills, differences in beliefs and patient populations, training, experience, peer effects, financial incentives and time constraints. Despite growing knowledge about all these factors, our knowledge of how to apply that knowledge to improve health care is still quite limited, as outlined in a new NBER working paper.

First Do No Harm? Doctor Decision Making and Patient Outcomes Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.

HCEO member Claudia Golden continues her historical analysis of factors influencing women's economic status. In a new NBER working paper with Joseph P. Ferrie and Claudia Olivetti, she examines a WWII-era childcare program supported by the Langham Act. They find that the programs were well-funded but because they were late to start and limited in scope, they did not greatly increase women’s employment. Programs were more numerous in places that already had high participation rates of women, suggesting that they supplied care for the children of women who had already entered the labor force.

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Our director, James J. Heckman is featured on a new podcast from Bright Horizons outlining the evidence of how early childhood education produces long-term benefits for individuals and society.

The Work-Life Equation Podcast Caregiving doesn’t come with a user’s manual. Subscribe to The Work-Life Equation, a podcast for everyone who is putting the pieces together to make life work.

HCEO member Claudia Golden continues her historical analysis of factors influencing women's economic status. In a new NBER working paper with Joseph P. Ferrie and Claudia Olivetti, she examines a WWII-era childcare program supported by the Langham Act. They find that the programs were well-funded but because they were late to start and limited in scope, they did not greatly increase women’s employment. Programs were more numerous in places that already had high participation rates of women, suggesting that they supplied care for the children of women who had already entered the labor force.

Mobilizing the Manpower of Mothers: Childcare under the Lanham Act during WWII Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.

A new NBER. paper from HCEO member Raj Chetty and colleagues offers new insights on how neighborhood effects feed into growing class gaps and shrinking racial gaps in social mobility trends.

Changing Opportunity: Sociological Mechanisms Underlying Growing Class Gaps and Shrinking Race Gaps in Economic Mobility Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.

We note with sadness the passing of HCEO member Seong Hyeok Moon, who passed away at his home in Seoul on June 18, 2024. He was with the Institute of Economic Research of Seoul National University. He earned his doctorate from the University of Chicago Department of Economics in 2014 and was a research fellow with the department before returning to Korea. We extend our deepest sympathies to his family, friends, and colleagues.

Welfare preferences differ within households. In a new paper, HCEO members Pierre-Andre Chiappori and Costas Meghir develop a novel method of measuring individual welfare and find women have a much stronger preference for expenditures on chidlren and public goods like housing. (with Yoko Okuyama).

Intrahousehold Welfare: Theory and Application to Japanese Data Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.

School leadership matters. A new NBER working paper from HCEO member EricHanushek fand colleagues finds that middle school principles have long-lasting impacts on students'; secondary schooling, employment, and criminal justice outcomes. They find some interesting differences in impacts on cognitive and noncognitive skills.

The Lasting Impacts of Middle School Principals Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.

To all our U.S. friends and followers celebrating our nation's independence, have a safe and happy holiday.

📝✨ New publication in the Journal of the European Economic Association by Kjell G. Salvanes and his co-authors titled "The Making of Social Democracy: The Economic and Electoral Consequences of Norway’s 1936 Folk School Reform".

🔗Link to abstract and paper: https://www.nhh.no/en/research-centres/fair/news/2024/kjell-g.-slavens/

ICYMI.

In a new NBER working paper, HCEO member Hoyt Bleakley and coauthor Paul Rhode compare pre-Civil War economic data from either side of the 1860 slave border. They find ind lower economic performance in slavery-legal areas, Land was underused but cheaper, yet farmers from the free side did not take advantage of this and move to the slave side. Evidence of higher wages on the slave side suggests free laborers had an aversion to working in a slave society. This casts new light on earlier literature about the profitability of plantations.

The Economic Effects of American Slavery: Tests at the Border Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.

We're delighted to share that our director, James J. Heckman, received an honorary doctorate from the Chinese University of Hong Kong June 20 in recognition of his many contributions to economic science.

What explains the gender gap in STEM program enrollment? HCEO member Ian Fillmore and colleagues educational institutions and social factors play a role in determining the number of women who pursue degrees in STEM

Unpacking the STEM Gender Gap: Evidence From Taiwan | HCEO Author(s) Ian Fillmore Hsuan-Hua Huang Hao-Chung Li Hsien-Ming Lien Across many countries, women enroll in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) fields less often than men. Using Taiwanese data from 2011–2018, we unpack the drivers of this gap. We find the gap in STEM enrollment largel...

How much does IQ contribute to success in life-- including financial success? Not as much as people think, according to research from HCEO director James J. Heckman and coauthors recently featured in VOX News Albania. Grades and achievement test scores are more strongly correlated with success, and personality trait like conscientiousness, diligence, persistence and self-discipline are behind the good grades and test scores.

If you're so smart, why aren't you rich?! How much is a child's future success determined by innate intelligence? Economist James Heckman says it's not what people think

A new NBER working paper from HCEO member Gueyon Kim and colleagues outlines evidence that the local supply of college-educated workers -- largely associated with a college or university nearby -- drives the evolution of new types of jobs.

Measuring and Predicting “New Work” in the United States: The Role of Local Factors and Global Shocks Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.

HCEO member Stefanie Stantcheva and colleagues take a deep dive into people's understanding of inflation: where it comes from, its consequenes, and policies to manage it. Some notable findings:
>> There is a widespread belief that managing inflation can be achieved without significant trade-offs, such as reducing economic activity or increasing unemployment.

>>A widespread misconception that inflation rises following increases in interest rates even leads to support for rate cuts to reduce inflation -- the opposite of standard economic theory.
Read more:

People's Understanding of Inflation Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.

We're delighted to hear that Orla Doyle, one of our Dublin-based collaborators on our Creciendo Juntos - Preparing for Life home visiting program in Chicago, has been named an affiliate of J-Pal, the MIT-based global poverty research center. This gives her access to a deep set of research resources and collaboration opportunities. Congratulations, Orla!

An experiment that varied ages in online dating profiles showed that for every year older, women needed to earn $7,000 more per year to be equally attractive to potential partners. This is because men with no children are pricing in a trade-off for women's declining fertility. Findings are documented in a new paper from HCEO member Corinne Low. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/723834

Emergency rental assistance during COVID-19 increased rent payment modestly and improved mental health but had limited effects on financial or housing stability. This is probably due to macroeconomic factors, including expanded government support and rental market slack, according to a new working paper from HCEO members Robert Collison and John Eric Humphries and coauthors.

The Effects of Emergency Rental Assistance During the Pandemic: Evidence from Four Cities Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.

Which policies help reduce inequality and the intergenerational persistence of poverty? HCEO member Dirk Krueger and colleagues studied the consequences of alternative policies for encouraging college complettion.

They found that making college free generated long-term welfare gains. Increasing spending on public education did, as well. The optimum policy combined both: tuition subsidies make college affordable for children from poorer parental backgrounds; better schools increase students' human capital, so reducing college dropout risk.

Shaping Inequality and Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty: Free College or Better Schools Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.

New work from HCEO members Miriam Gensowski, Rasmus Landerso and colleagues show that public investment that increased preschool quality led to improved skills for all participating children. However, the boost completely faded out for children of highly educated parents. A long-run positive effect for children of low-education parents meant that the treatment reduced skill gaps across parental educatio backgrounds by 46%. https://hceconomics.uchicago.edu/research/working-paper/public-and-parental-investments-and-childrens-skill-formation

A new working paper from HCEO member hows that decreasing wage gaps between fathers and mothers does not affect chldren's social emotional development. This may be explained by an increase in household income and shifting investments of money vs. time, such as a shift to child care outside the home.

The Parental Wage Gap and the Development of Socio-emotional Skills in Children | HCEO Author(s) Paul Hufe Converging labor market opportunities of men and women have altered the economic incentives for how families invest monetary and time resources into the skill development of their children. In this paper, I study the causal impact of changes in the parental wage gap (PWG)—defin...

A new working paper from HCEO member Paul Hufe shows that decreasing wage gaps between fathers and mothers does not affect chldren's social emotional development. That may be explained by increased household income that is controlled by mothers that leads to a shift toward childcare outside the home.

The Parental Wage Gap and the Development of Socio-emotional Skills in Children | HCEO Author(s) Paul Hufe Converging labor market opportunities of men and women have altered the economic incentives for how families invest monetary and time resources into the skill development of their children. In this paper, I study the causal impact of changes in the parental wage gap (PWG)—defin...

HCEO member Amanda Agan and colleagues find more evdence that a criminal record "scars labor market outccomes" in ways that are hard to undo later. When criminal offenses are removed from records, outcomes in the job market do not improve.
https://www.nber.org/papers/w32394"

Labor supply for older workers is rising in the US. Can social security reform explain this? A new paper in the Journal of Public Economics from HCEO member Zhixiu Yu uses a life-cycle model to show that social security reform - in particular the earning test - account for 77% of the increase. https://t.co/d0KwlV6Vtk