Danilo Bogdanovic, REALTOR(r)

A recap of the 2023 Northern Virginia real estate/housing market (and a hint at what 2024 may bring)

2023 Northern Virginia Housing and Real Estate Market Review A recap of the Northern Virginia Housing and Real Estate Market in 2023 (and a hint at what may come in 2024).Danilo BogdanovicREALTOR(r), Principal Agent, R...

September 2023's Northern Virginia real estate market was quite different from previous months in 2023, and especially YoY. Check out this video to find out more about how and why, as well as what may possibly happen the rest of the year.

September 2023 Northern Virginia Real Estate Market Statistics and Update September 2023 showed signs of a changing Northern Virginia real estate market with supply and demand numbers quite different from previous months in 2023, a...

The 🔥 housing market is breaking more records than Max Verstappen!

Max is breaking old F1 records and setting new ones left and right. There seems like there's nothing stopping him, at least not this season. And the same holds true for the housing market. Record high housing values. Record high cost of a starter home in the US. Record rate of increase in mortgage rates. Almost record low affordability (the word "almost" is about to be removed from that statement). Record low number of homes changing hands/selling. And the list goes on.

Everything is hot right now!

Max isn’t the only one or thing that’s hot right now. The temperatures this week have been in the mid 90's while feeling like a scorching 107+ degrees. The local area is even under a heat advisory. The local housing market is just as hot with it still being very much a seller's market.

Need. To. Cool. Off.

The one difference between the weather and the local housing market is that you and I can stay cool by staying indoors or jumping into a cold shower or a pool, but nothing seems to be cooling the housing market much, not even higher rates nor lackluster or even negative economic indicators and statistics. Yes, the market has slowed down a bit. But by "slowed down", I mean rather than properties getting an average of 10-15 offers, they are getting an average of 2-4 offers with many selling for more than asking price.

Demand is definitely down, but supply is down even more. Buyer demand is down an average of 28%, but housing inventory is down by an average of 50%. That imbalance is the main reason for it still being a hot seller's market and prices continuing to appreciate.

Could things get worse?

Yes, things can always get worse. I'd be happy to tell you stories of what I experienced and witnessed as an agent during the GFC of 2007-2008 and US housing market crash of 2007-2011. But I don't think things will get that bad. My guess is that the seller's market will continue and possibly even get hotter once rates come down and everyone waiting on the sidelines storms the field. Things will eventually shake out and stabilize though that will require things to change, and that could take some time.

What needs to change?

It will most likely take mortgage rates going down and/or prices coming down. Most homeowners and the government don't want values to go down because that erodes their equity and wealth, as well as the property tax revenue collected by the county and/or state. Falling prices will be fought tooth and nail by pretty much everyone. That leaves mortgage rates as most people's first choice of what they'd like to see happen. For mortgage rates to go down, the banks, lenders and the industry as a whole all have to feel that there is less of a risk to lending than there is now. At the end of the day, mortgage rates are a reflection of perceived risk. As of the moment, there is a decent amount of perceived risk.

When will mortgage rates come down?

That's the question everyone is asking yet, no one can answer with certainty. Even the most experienced and skilled veterans of the industry admit that we're in somewhat uncharted waters with much of what's going on. According to my trusted industry sources, the consensus is that it's going to take 12-24 months for mortgage rates to come down, and the mid to high 5's is where they think mortgage rates will land when they finish coming down.

What can or should you do?

It all depends on your specific situation and what you are and are not willing to deal with when it comes to purchasing a home. You can either sit on the sidelines and wait for things to shake out and the dust to settle, or you can move forward now with the sale of your current home or investment property and/or the purchase of your new home. As with anything, there are pros and cons to each option.

Which option is best for you?

That depends on you and your specific situation. There's no right answer that fits all. For some, staying put and not moving is best. For others, moving forward with the sale and/or purchase of a new home is best.

Would you like my no-BS $0.02?

Then call, text, email or DM me. I'm happy to speak with you and discuss your specific situation anytime. I promise to give you a straight-forward, honest, objective answer and professional opinion at all times. It doesn't matter to me whether you decide to sit tight for the next 1, 2 or even 10 years, or if you decide to move tomorrow. What matters is that you do what is best for you and your specific situation, and that if and when the time is right for you to sell and/or buy your home, you know that you have me, a real estate agent with integrity, experience and empathy, representing you and your best interests.

Sincerely,
Danilo

Call now to connect with business.

Thank you to Loudoun Times-Mirror for showcasing my client’s beautiful home and my latest listing in Waterford.

I’ve seen many hundreds of renovated homes over the past two decades and this renovation is top tier.

My clients did a superb job modernizing the home and property while respecting Waterford’s style and feel, and rich and long history.

www.loudountimes.com/news/home-of-the-week-40839-browns-lane-waterford/article_b5b0c02e-3094-11ee-bc77-9332773ba8c1.html

Rates are up, buyer demand is down yet, the NoVA housing market is still on fire and prices are back up (and climbing). Here’s the explanation why including current, real time statistics and data…

Supply vs Demand. The story of the Northern Virginia housing and real estate market in 2023. Supply, demand and mortgage rates are the driving factors when it comes to the Northern Virginia housing and real estate market. Yes, mortgage rates are back...

Another sign of the current housing market conditions in Northern Virginia. These are an agent's/seller's remarks in a current Coming Soon listing,

"Anticipating a lot of interest here. Priced to allow for escalations without massive fear of a lower appraisal. Early offers are welcome - if you'd like to include an escalation, please do so. Ideally looking for a faster close, less or no contingencies."

The Northern Virginia residential real estate market is back to being a seller’s market. Here’s why…

The Northern Virginia residential real estate market is back to being a seller's market. Here's why. Dozens of buyers at open houses...new construction home builder sales models full of buyers and lots selling quickly...condos are now selling quickly. That's...

- 2022 NoVA housing market recap (a tale of two halves)
- Current NoVA housing market conditions (spoiler alert: multiple offers are back)
- What 2023 may bring (I don't like to guess, but since everyone is asking me to…)

Multiple offers are back?! The current state of the Northern Virginia real estate housing market. Yes, multiple offers are back (at least for now). More about that, what we could possibly see in 2023, as well as a recap of the 2022 Northern Virginia real ...

Northern Virginia housing market update. Has normalcy and seasonality returned to the housing market? Here's today's video with all the info...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDvQ576eGpI

Northern Virginia housing market update. Has normalcy and seasonality returned to housing? Housing prices going sideways overall...interest rates have been bouncing up and down in the 5's for some time now...is normalcy and seasonality returning to...

Danilo Bogdanovic, REALTOR(r) is now on WhatsApp.

The Fed didn't raise their rate until yesterday, and by only 25 basis points (1/4 point) versus the previously thought 50 basis points (1/2 point). But the mortgage rates you and I are seeing and getting started going up back in January. Nevertheless, rates are still super low and well below what is considered "neutral", which is 6-7%. Here are YTD, 5 year and historical (1972-2022) average mortgage rate charts. If you think they're high now, check out what the average mortgage rate was in 1980/1981.

Whether you love it or hate it, Til Hazel's contribution to the growth of Northern VA, and the DMV as a whole, is immense and undeniable. May he rest in peace.

John ‘Til’ Hazel Jr., lawyer and developer who transformed Virginia suburbs, dies at 91 He played a crucial role in building the Capital Beltway and reshaping Northern Virginia from a rural outpost of Washington to an economic powerhouse.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but the real estate housing market is even hotter right now than it was in 2021 and 2020! In this video, I give real life examples, discuss why it may be so hot, and how long the current hot market may last.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbfcFLvu644

The real estate housing market right now is hotter than ever before! I can't believe I'm saying this, but the real estate housing market is even hotter right now than it was in 2021 and 2020. In this video, I give real life ex...

The Fed is poised to raise rates sooner, more often and higher than previously stated. What could that mean for home buyers, home sellers and the real estate market in general? Check it out...

Interest and mortgage rates are going up sooner and higher. What the Fed's decision to raise interest rates sooner and higher means for home buyers, home sellers and the real estate market in general.Danilo Bogdanovic...

The market started cooling off in the beginning/middle of May (check out my video post on May 26th), and the statistics and articles about it are coming out now. Here's a WSJ article citing a home buyer experience here in DC...

The U.S. Housing Market Is Losing Some of Its ‘Frenzy,’ as More Homes List for Sale An uptick in inventory, especially at the high end, is bringing a crazy seller’s market back to earth.

Today's FOMC Statement was important for not just real estate, but for every business and every person in the U.S. because it will affect us all. Here's a great summary of it...

Fed sees earlier time frame for rate hikes with inflation up WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve signaled Wednesday that it may act sooner than previously planned to start dialing back the low-interest-rate policies that have helped fuel a swift rebound from the pandemic recession but have also coincided with rising inflation.

More good news for homeowners and buyers. Lumber prices have come down about 50% from their peak, and continue to fall.

Lumber Prices Are Falling Fast, Turning Hoarders Into Sellers Prices have dropped from record highs spurred by the economic reopening, potentially pointing to an eventual return to normalcy.

Quite the change in local real estate market conditions in the past few weeks.

Is the hottest, seller sided market ever cooling off? Northern Virginia real estate market update. There's been a significant change in the Northern Virginia real estate market in the past few weeks. Demand is down, inventory is up, price reductions are u...

Here's a chart of just how ridiculous lumber prices have become. The one bit of good news is that random length lumber futures contracts prices are going down slightly.

(photos courtesy of MarketWatch)

A Federal Judge vacates the CDC's controversial eviction moratorium. We'll see what affect this has on the moratorium, which is set to expire June 30th, as well as the real estate market as a whole.

U.S. judge throws out pandemic-related moratorium on evicting renters A federal judge on Wednesday threw out the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's nationwide moratorium on evictions, delivering a setback to Americans hit hard financially by the coronavirus pandemic.

The price of lumber has skyrocketed! The high price is affecting the cost of home improvement projects, new construction homes, and even non real estate related things.

Fewer parking spaces for more employees and vehicles so that Boston Properties can make more money 🤔

Boston Properties wants to replace garage parking with office space at Reston Gateway Boston Properties wants to replace garage parking with office space in the final block of Reston Gateway, a massive mixed-use development that's currently under construction steps from the Reston Town Center Metro Station. Although the first phase of the project was approved by the county in 2018,

This...

Exclusive: Nearly Half of All Americans Have Missed a Rent or Mortgage Payment Due to COVID-19 Almost half of Americans missed a mortgage payment or skipped a monthly rent during the pandemic, according to a new survey, underlining the disastrous financial and economic consequences many people are facing. Read More: Here's How Americans Really Spent Their First Two Stimulus Checks Discover: I...

The Northern Virginia real estate market is bananas right now.

The Northern Virginia real estate market is bananas right now. Builder base prices up 10% in two weeks? Eight percent over asking price, no contingencies in order to be the winning offer? Over 100 showings in three days?...

We're in the middle of a housing inventory crisis, which is fueling the craziest market we have seen in modern history. But the story is different per county and property type throughout NoVA. And it may have been a long time coming.

Here are charts showing the year over year percentage change in supply for Fairfax County, Arlington County, Loudoun County and Prince William County.

Notice how much greater the negative percentage change in months of supply (aka inventory) is in the further out counties of Loudoun and Prince William than Fairfax and Arlington Counties.

But also notice how the condo market is a very different market than townhomes and single family homes in Arlington and Fairfax Counties. The month supply of condos has gone up between 200% and almost 500% every month since August 2020 in Arlington County. In Fairfax County, while townhome and single family home inventory is at crisis low inventory, the months supply of condos has gone up between 25% and 125% every month since July 2020.

And the inventory crisis may have only become a crisis last year, but the decline in inventory started at least 2 years ago. These charts go back two years and you can see that for the most part, the percentage change in months supply for townhomes and single family homes, and even condos in Loudoun and Prince William Counties, has been negative since the beginning of 2019.

The moral of the story is that it's a crazy (and getting crazier) seller's market overall, but not all sellers in NoVA are reaping the same benefits. And people are more interested in living in larger properties further out from DC than ever before.

If you would like information specific to your situation or home, please DM me or call/text me on my cell, 703-582-6900. I'm happy to provide charts, graphs, statistics and boots on the ground information anytime.