Berg Magloff Wealth Management Group - Stifel

Updates from the Treasury Department and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) suggesting that Treasury could exhaust extraordinary measures in early June probably point to a temporary suspension of the debt ceiling to buy more time for negotiations. Passing a short-term suspension of the debt ceiling is not a slam dunk, but it could pass Congress with limited political blowback. A subsequent suspension might not be politically viable, which will raise the stakes on the negotiations on a longer-term deal.

Potomac Perspective - May 3, 2023 grapevinesix.s3.amazonaws.com

1:59 2/5 minutes: The fastest Kentucky Derby time in history. With the derby this Saturday, will a new horse beat Secretariat's record? For more information on this and to read the full piece, click below.

Stifel Bits - May 3, 2023 www.stifel.com

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) released an overview of deposit insurance that included policy options for Congress. In the current environment, chances of changes in deposit insurance are low. As the political winds shift, support for deposit insurance legislation could grow. Historically, it often takes years to build support for financial services legislation, so this could be an issue for 2025 or beyond, rather than 2023 or 2024.

Potomac Perspective - May 2, 2023 grapevinesix.s3.amazonaws.com

The House could vote on a Republican debt ceiling bill this week. Passing the bill could ease the way to negotiations by giving House Speaker Kevin McCarthy some leverage in talks with the White House. Investors should discount the bill's current proposals since it is merely a starting point. Failure to pass the bill could undercut McCarthy and further complicate negotiations. The X-date remains a moving target. The Treasury Department could update the public this week with its latest estimate on when the government will exhaust extraordinary measures for managing government payments and when certain payments might be delayed.

Potomac Perspective - April 26, 2023 grapevinesix.s3.amazonaws.com

$25,000: The prize a Maine museum is offering to the first person to deliver a 1 kilogram specimen of a recent meteor that fell near the border there. For more information on this and to read the full piece, click below.

Stifel Bits - April 26, 2023 www.stifel.com

11%: How much the average tax refund has fallen so far this year compared with 2022. For more information on this and to read the full piece, click below.

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$2.2 million: The bid for Michael Jordan's "Last Dance" game shoes on their first day at auction, likely to become the most expensive sneakers ever auctioned. For more information on this and to read the full piece, click below.

Stifel Bits - April 12, 2023 www.stifel.com

$450,000: How much it costs for one person to travel to space via Virgin Galactic. For more information on this and to read the full piece, click below.

Stifel Bits - April 5, 2023 www.stifel.com

The White House issued a Fact Sheet that puts forth several recommendations for banking regulators as they consider changes in the regulations of larger regional banks. The recommendations are aimed at banks between $100 billion and $250 billion in assets and have been telegraphed over the past few weeks. See below for an outline of the Fact Sheet and upcoming policy actions to monitor.

Potomac Perspective - March 31, 2023 grapevinesix.s3.amazonaws.com

Dollar Tree is ditching eggs, as they no longer can afford selling them at $1.25 due to inflation.

Stifel Bits - March 29, 2023 www.stifel.com

0.25%: How much the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate today.

Stifel Bits - March 22, 2023 www.stifel.com

Currently, there does not seem to be adequate political will in Congress to temporarily increase deposit insurance. Even if the political mood shifts, Congress is unlikely to act quickly and probably would not act until mid-April. If Congress does increase deposit insurance, the increase will likely come with strings attached.

Potomac Perspective - March 20, 2023 grapevinesix.s3.amazonaws.com

6.79%: The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for the week ending 3/3/23, which is 2.70 percentage points higher than a year ago.

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Government intervention in the banking system may come with a political price. In the wake of regulatory actions to guarantee all deposits at two failed banks and to create a new bank borrowing facility, investors and banks should expect increased supervision followed by regulatory changes. These changes will be nominally intended for larger regional banks, but the impact of any new regulatory requirements is likely to cascade down to smaller institutions.

Potomac Perspective - March 13, 2023 grapevinesix.s3.amazonaws.com

$21 billion: The amount that Americans collectively have in unspent gift cards. Almost two-thirds of consumers have at least one unspent gift card tucked away somewhere.

Stifel Bits - March 8, 2023 www.stifel.com

A busy week is on tap for policy events. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will testify before Congress regarding monetary policy but is likely to face numerous questions on economic policy as well as financial regulation. Numerous financial regulators will speak publicly this week on digital assets.

Potomac Perspective - March 7, 2023 grapevinesix.s3.amazonaws.com

The House of Representatives will consider legislation to overturn a Department of Labor (DOL) rule regarding Environmental, Social, and corporate Governance (ESG) investing. The resolution is likely to pass the House and could pass the Senate, but President Biden is expected to veto the legislation and the DOL rule is likely to remain in place.

Potomac Perspective - March 1, 2023 grapevinesix.s3.amazonaws.com

$326: How much lower the average tax refund is so far compared to last year.

Stifel Bits - March 1, 2023 www.stifel.com

The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear the appeal of a case about how the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is funded. The headlines should be seen as a positive for the consumer finance sector but investors should not overreact.

Potomac Perspective - February 28, 2023 grapevinesix.s3.amazonaws.com

113.1 million: The amount of viewers who tuned in to the Super Bowl, making it the third most-watched TV program ever.

Stifel Bits - February 22, 2023 www.stifel.com

Pop go the chances of big tariff relief. The recent sightings and takedowns of Chinese surveillance balloons over the U.S. will make the already long odds of repealing the 2018 tariffs on Chinese imports even longer. Also, in this note, we take an early look at the 2024 presidential race.

Potomac Perspective - February 15, 2023 grapevinesix.s3.amazonaws.com

$16 billion: The amount that Americans are estimated to have gambled on this year's Super Bowl, a new record.

Stifel Bits - February 15, 2023 www.stifel.com

Among the proposals floated in the State of the Union address were taxing unrealized capital gains and increasing the stock buyback tax. The unrealized capital gain tax proposal is DOA. The plan to hike the excise tax on buybacks is not totally dead but chances of it passing now are remote. That could change in a few years.

Potomac Perspective - February 9, 2023 grapevinesix.s3.amazonaws.com

50 basis points: What traders are pricing in for future rate hikes in 2023.

Stifel Bits - February 8, 2023 www.stifel.com

President Joe Biden's State of the Union could be seen as a soft opening for his 2024 reelection campaign. He is likely to take a victory lap on his 2022 legislative wins (the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act), promote climate initiatives, and highlight consumer-related sectors (tech and banking) to argue that his administration is helping consumers. The speech will likely include some mention of the debt ceiling debate, but the president will probably avoid going into detail about his position ahead of negotiations with Congress.

Potomac Perspective - February 6, 2023 grapevinesix.s3.amazonaws.com

Large companies' layoffs have dominated headlines recently, but small and mid-size businesses continue to hire. That's problematic for markets: A strong labor market may force the Federal Reserve to keep raising rates.

Stifel Bits - February 1, 2023 www.stifel.com

After "inflation" wore out our keyboards last year, it's refreshing to finally type deflation. Yep, you read that right: December actually saw some year-over-year price drops.

Stifel Bits - January 25, 2023 www.stifel.com