Guild Investment Management

Recession Coming? In Some Corners of the Economy, It’s Been Here… But An Economy-Wide Recession Is Not Imminent Recession risk has been a frequent topic of discussion among economists, policymakers, and workers alike, particularly in light of recent inflationary pressures and changes in labor market dynamics. However, despite the frequent predictions of a looming downturn, and however much economists and a**l...

Election Blues? Remember, “There’s Always a Bull Market Somewhere” As we approach the 2024 U.S.

Guild's Periodic Conference Call Converging Market Currents: Economics, Politics, and Financials

Middlemen Get Squeezed Again: This Time, It’s Real Estate Agents’ Turn And Some Shenanigans At the BLS

Bitcoin’s Fundamental Use-Case And Some Comments on Emerging-Market Currencies

Grasping For a Reason The market’s sudden swoon and the VIX spike this past Monday has left many people looking for causes, reasons, excuses, and explanations. The most convenient has been the unwinding of the yen carry trade (which we discuss more below); however, there are a lot of highly leveraged quantitative inves...

Multivariable Calculus Last week, we used some of our own arithmetic to explain the correction that tech stocks were experiencing and the fierce rotation into other sectors.

Decent Earnings, GDP, Inflation, and Employment Data + Noisy Politics and Imbalanced Indices = Market Correction/Rotation The U.S.

Financial Services Is Another Sector AI Will Change “We have $2 trillion more in assets than we did a year ago with the same amount of employees. That is technology at work.” -- Larry Fink

AI In Healthcare Plus: Elon Musk and Oracle Tussle Over NVDA Chips

We Wish All Our U.S. Readers A Happy Fourth of July Holiday So Far This Year, What Matters Most Has Been To Be In the Right Place In the second quarter, investment performance data underscore a crucial insight: performance depended on investors selecting the “right place” -- the right assets, the right geography, the right sector, the right industry, and...

Debt, a torpedo with a huge warhead swimming around markets and the economy. It may never hit anything, nor detonate.

Navigating the Future: Technology’s Role in Mitigating Economic Challenges Posed by Rising Deficits We’re optimists -- but we’re realistic optimists. There’s no denying that the United States finds itself at a critical juncture, facing a rising federal debt levels that, if unchecked, threaten to overwhelm the economy. Historical precedents from various empires and nations highlight the peril...

Navigating the Future: Technology’s Role in Mitigating Economic Challenges Posed by Rising Deficits We’re optimists -- but we’re realistic optimists. There’s no denying that the United States finds itself at a critical juncture, facing a rising federal debt levels that, if unchecked, threaten to overwhelm the economy. Historical precedents from various empires and nations highlight the peril...

Essential Reading in Board Rooms and C-Suites in 2024

NVIDIA’s Omniverse: A Step Change For Manufacturing And Our Current Views on Bitcoin and Digital Assets

Essential Considerations When Investing In Emerging Markets “Emerging” Does Not Equal “Growing Faster” Is it time to look at emerging markets? When is it time to look at emerging markets? Should EM be a constant strategic allocation in your portfolio, or only a tactical one? Should you concentrate on individual stock selection, country selection, or ...

The Rally Marches On The global equity markets are witnessing a remarkable rally, with 14 of the world’s 20 largest stock markets achieving all-time highs recently. In the U.S., the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 continue to hit new records, fueled in part by significant contributions from major tech companies like NVDA, whic...

Looking Closer At Europe European stocks are about to poke their nose above the old highs of 2021. So we ask: what does this mean for investors? What’s going on, and should investors consider increasing their allocation to European stocks? Readers of ours these past few years will know that we have not been looking to Eur...

Investors Shouldn’t Be Surprised By More New Highs Market Overview 2024 opened with strong performance for stocks, defying the near-universal call among a**lysts for imminent recession and market retrenchment. Late March to mid-April saw a mild correction, and now the question becomes: is another advance past the old highs in the immediate cards, or...

HELP!

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Productivity Growth Makes A Comeback In the U.S. Plus Notes on the Yen and the Fed

Don’t Fear the Dip -- Just Be Ready to Buy It The S&P 500 experienced a correction of about 5.6% from its peak in late March to mid-April before it began a rally -- the duration of which remains TBD. This movement is typical of the market’s predictable behavior during certain times of the year; we interpret this moderate pullback as a standar...

The Electoral Consequences of Inflation Numbers And Comments on Gold, Bitcoin, and Upcoming Earnings

AI and the Financial Sector, and Notes on Resurgent Inflation The financial sector, like all sectors adopting generative artificial intelligence (gen AI) stands on the brink of a transformative era with remarkable new opportunities to redefine service delivery, risk management, regulatory compliance, and operational efficiency.

Healthcare Is Ripe for Disruption… Here Comes AI And Some Notes On Gold

Trimming Japan on Yen Risk The recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is a pivotal moment in Japanese monetary policy, signifying a departure from years of negative interest rates and reflecting a structural transformation in the Japanese economy’s inflation dynamics. This decision contrasts sharply with the U...

Correction? Let’s Hope So! The robust start of U.S. stocks in 2024 has sparked comparisons to historical market cycles, raising alarms for some over the possibility of overheating. The S&P 500’s frequent record highs, Nvidia’s dramatic increase, and the resurgence of Bitcoin are all making some market-watchers grumble tha...

Don’t Get Wedded To A Meme In 2013, MSNBC’s consummate showman Jim Cramer coined the first of a memorable series of shorthand references for the group of tech leaders: FANG, then comprised of Facebook (now Meta), Amazon, Netflix, and Google (now Alphabet). The grouping changed over the years, from FANG to FAANG to FAAMG (a ...

Bitcoin Makes A Run At Its Old Highs Bitcoin has the eyes of speculators on it again; as we write it is approaching its all-time high of about $69,000, which it reached in November, 2021. Now that the Securities and Exchange Commission has approved spot bitcoin ETF products from major Wall Street firms, the digital currency is attracti...

Reading a report from Jefferies about heat pump sales in Europe - it suggests that “the difference between the price that voters say they are willing to pay for the low-carbon transition and that which they are actually willing to pay — is widening.”

Maybe a blip; but could also be a function that more people are crossing a peak, where economics, necessity, utility, (and physics) overwhelm ideology.

Nvidia: One Earnings Call to Rule Them All Plus Some Notes on Emerging Markets