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: Early returns suggest the market has literally bought into the argument that the Fed needs to be aggressive and proactive to ensure the labor market doesn't weaken further and jeopardize the soft-landing outcome.

That buy-in has driven multiple expansion, which is to say stock prices have gone up at a faster pace than earnings estimates. That isn't an offside reaction with market rates falling and the Fed itself projecting another 150 basis points worth of easing between now and the end of 2025.

The key to it all, however, is that earnings estimates stay onside.

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Mired in one of its worst slumps in recent history, as reflected in the stock's 50% plunge since the beginning of 2022, (+6.3%) has determined that a change at the top is needed to return to its former winning ways. After the close last night, NKE announced that Elliott Hill will be returning after retiring from the company in 2020, replacing John Donahoe as President and CEO, effective October 14, 2024.

Based on the positive reaction in the stock, it's evident that shareholders are optimistic that Mr. Hill can reignite NKE's innovation and growth engine following a rough stretch that saw revenue decline by 1.6% in 4Q24, preceded by flat growth in Q3, and a pedestrian 0.8% sales increase in Q2.

https://www.briefing.com/story-stocks/archive/2024/9/20/nike-running-higher-on-hopes-that-ceo-change-can-reignite-innovation-and-growth-engines-(nke)?utm_campaign=storystocks&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fb&utm_content=link

Story Stocks - NIKE running higher on hopes that CEO change can reignite innovation and growth engines (NKE) Brief synopsis and analysis of news items that are affecting the equities market

(-13.9%) is down sharply after getting FY25 got off to a slow start. The package delivery giant reported a large EPS miss with its Q1 (Aug) report last night. Revenue fell 0.5% yr/yr to $21.58 bln, which was also a miss but the EPS downside was much more pronounced. It also lowered the top end of its FY25 adjusted EPS outlook to $20.00-21.00 from $20.00-22.00. Its FY25 revenue outlook was also lowered to low single-digit growth vs its prior forecast of low-to-mid single-digit growth.

FedEx said its Q1 results reflect a challenging demand environment, which was weaker than expected, particularly in the US domestic package market.

https://www.briefing.com/story-stocks/archive/2024/9/20/fedex-delivers-a-big-eps-miss-facing-challenging-demand-environment-(fdx)?utm_campaign=storystocks&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fb&utm_content=link

Story Stocks - FedEx delivers a big EPS miss, facing challenging demand environment (FDX) Brief synopsis and analysis of news items that are affecting the equities market

There were not too many cracks in the foundation of Lennar's (-4.4%) Q3 (Aug) report. The homebuilder exceeded top and bottom-line estimates by a wide margin while surpassing its new orders and deliveries forecasts. Much excitement has been mounting over the prospect of lower interest rates. Shares of LEN exploded in early July in connection with broader sector rotation toward more interest-rate sensitive stocks. The stock reached all-time highs yesterday, a +35% run in just over three months after the Federal Reserve announced a surprise 50 bp interest rate cut on Wednesday.

Given this context, LEN was not facing typical expectations.

https://www.briefing.com/story-stocks/archive/2024/9/20/lennars-soft-margins-in-q3-fail-to-keep-recordhigh-stock-price-trending-even-higher-today-(len)?utm_campaign=storystocks&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fb&utm_content=link

Story Stocks - Lennar's soft margins in Q3 fail to keep record-high stock price trending even higher today (LEN) Brief synopsis and analysis of news items that are affecting the equities market

: The stock market traded Thursday with a sense of enthusiasm for the Fed's aggressive rate cut and Apple's (AAPL) iPhone 16 sales prospects. An encouraging initial jobless claims report added to the enthusiasm. Participants saw it as a solid step in the soft landing direction.

It wasn't quite an "everything rally," but it was close to it. The more defensive-oriented utilities and consumer staples sectors were left out, yet that was largely regarded as a byproduct of what was an otherwise "risk-on rally."

Things are not quite so risk-on at the moment on this quadruple-witching expiration day that features the expiration of stock options, index options, single stock futures, and index futures. Still, things aren't exactly full-on risk off either.

https://www.briefing.com/page-one/archive/2024/9/20/a-consolidation-tone?utm_campaign=pageone&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fb&utm_content=link

Page One - A consolidation tone Daily, pre-market analysis and implications for individual stocks based on the news.

: Contracts tied to the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow industrials have been lower after yesterday's rate cut-induced rally. Volume is expected to be above average on this "quadruple witching" expiration day, which includes the expiration of index options, index futures, stock options, and single-stock futures.

Pre-open losses in some mega-cap names have contributed to the early downside bias, along with negative responses to earnings from FedEx (FDX) and Lennar (LEN).

The 10-yr yield is down one basis point to 3.73% and the 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 3.61%.

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Intel may be ready to make some major changes in order to hasten a turnaround that has faltered under its foundry-based strategy, but selling off part of its stake isn't one of those changes that's in the cards.

On September 5, Bloomberg reported that INTC was considering selling off a portion of its 88% ownership stake in MBLY, sending shares of the ADAS chip maker spiraling lower to trade with a year-to-date loss of 76% by September 12. Earlier this morning, however, INTC released a statement, saying that it has no plans to divest a majority interest in the company and that it's excited about the future of autonomous driving and of MBLY. The news has MBLY spiking sharply higher and erasing those losses from early September.

https://www.briefing.com/story-stocks/archive/2024/9/19/mobileye-drives-higher-after-intel-reaffirms-majority-stake-but-chinabased-headwinds-linger-(mbly)?utm_campaign=storystocks&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fb&utm_content=link

Story Stocks - Mobileye drives higher after Intel reaffirms majority stake, but China-based headwinds linger (MBLY) Brief synopsis and analysis of news items that are affecting the equities market

(-5.4%) is in the hot seat today despite exceeding Q2 (Aug) earnings estimates. The global commercial furniture manufacturer with ties to the office, hospital, and educational markets did come up just short of analyst revenue estimates. However, that is not what is primarily igniting a sell-off today. Instead, investors are disappointed in SCS's downbeat Q3 (Nov) revenue guidance. While management was confident that yr/yr order growth from its largest customers would return during the second half of FY25 (Feb), investors are skeptical, given the turbulence projected over the next three months.

Turning to Q2 results, SCS enjoyed several bright spots. Adjusted EPS expanded by 25.8% yr/yr to $0.39, SCS's best bottom-line performance since 2020.

https://www.briefing.com/story-stocks/archive/2024/9/19/steelcase-sells-off-after-projecting-soft-q3-sales-growth-expects-orders-to-recover-in-2h25-(scs)?utm_campaign=storystocks&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fb&utm_content=link

Story Stocks - Steelcase sells off after projecting soft Q3 sales growth; expects orders to recover in 2H25 (SCS) Brief synopsis and analysis of news items that are affecting the equities market

(+7.4%) is making a strong move following its Q1 (Aug) earnings report this morning. This operator of several restaurant chains (Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, Ruth's Chris, and soon-to-own Chuy's) missed pretty big on EPS while revenue was generally in line. In addition to earnings, Darden announced an exclusive multi-year delivery partnership with Uber, set to begin with Olive Garden in late 2024.

Let's start with earnings. The company was surprised by a significant step down in traffic during July, which led to Q1 EPS being lower than expected. However, sales trends rebounded in August, resulting in flat comps for the month. The first three weeks of September have further improved, resulting in positive comps quarter-to-date for Q2 (Nov). Considering this recovery as well as planned initiatives, Darden reaffirmed FY25 EPS guidance at $9.40-9.60.

https://www.briefing.com/story-stocks/archive/2024/9/19/darden-restaurants-trades-higher-despite-eps-miss-as-uber-deal-excites-investors-(dri)?utm_campaign=storystocks&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fb&utm_content=link

Story Stocks - Darden Restaurants trades higher despite EPS miss as Uber deal excites investors (DRI) Brief synopsis and analysis of news items that are affecting the equities market

: The move in the futures market can be attributed in part to a "flat squeeze." Investors sitting on sidelined cash are moving to put that cash to work in a fear-of-missing-out trade. That fear is elevated this morning because the fading price action seen yesterday into the close likely spurred some thinking that there would be a follow-through to the downside today given that the market had already rallied on the speculation the Fed would cut by 50 basis points.

That hasn't happened. Doesn't mean it can't happen, yet the direction of travel for the equity futures market makes it clear that it will be a robust start that carries the Dow and S&P 500 into record territory.

There was some "fine" data this morning, too, not including the Q2 Current Account Deficit of -$266.8 billion.

https://www.briefing.com/page-one/archive/2024/9/19/everything-is-fine?utm_campaign=pageone&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fb&utm_content=link

Page One - Everything is fine Daily, pre-market analysis and implications for individual stocks based on the news.

: The S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow have been consolidating within their resistance ranges over the past few sessions, while the Russell broke through its initial resistance and turned lower after hitting the next resistance level. Momentum is weakening, with their RSIs negatively diverging from price, turning lower, and starting to make new lows. This suggests a potential corrective move ahead for the indices. The short-term trends remain mixed to sideways, awaiting a decisive break in either direction.

The Volatility Index closed Wednesday's session slightly higher, with buying pressure emerging above its support range from 16.15-14.75. If this buying pressure persists, it could lead to increased volatility and downside pressure on equities. Conversely, a lower VIX would likely correspond with higher equity prices.

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: Stock futures are in rally mode this morning after a slightly lower finish for the major indices following yesterday's more pronounced rate decrease by the Fed.

The early upside bias stems from a belief that the economy is headed for a soft landing scenario and that the Fed will cut rates as needed to ensure that outcome.

Pre-open gains in the mega caps and chipmakers have also contributed to the upside bias.

Weakening labor market data contributed to recent fears about growth prospects that led to a sharp sell-off in stocks last month. So, participants will be focused on the 8:30 ET release of weekly jobless claims, which continue to run below recession-like levels.

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Stock Market Update - Morning Summary The latest news and updates on the stock market today. Get up to speed with overnight summaries, stock market updates, and pre-open stock analysis of the news, data, and major issues driving the stock market.

(+49.2%) is orbiting well above its flatline today after winning a $4.82 bln NASA contract yesterday after the close. This is not the first time LUNR has displayed its technological capabilities for NASA, securing a roughly $117 mln contract in August, news of which sent its shares soaring. However, nothing has compared in value to yesterday's $4.82 bln ten-year contract, a massive win for LUNR given it registered around $115 mln in total revenue through 1H24.

What does LUNR do? LUNR is a space infrastructure firm committed to contributing to establishing infrastructure and commerce on the Moon. While its mission is ambitious, LUNR has been efficiently developing products and providing services for NASA and several other commercial payload customers. The company exited Q2 with zero debt on its balance sheet and sufficient cash to fund operations for the next 12 months.

https://www.briefing.com/story-stocks/archive/2024/9/18/intuitive-machines-rockets-to-another-planet-after-winning-a-482-bln-nasa-contract-(lunr)-?utm_campaign=storystocks&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fb&utm_content=link

Story Stocks - Intuitive Machines rockets to another planet after winning a $4.82 bln NASA contract (LUNR) Brief synopsis and analysis of news items that are affecting the equities market

Through the rapid growth of Azure, 's cloud platform that helps enterprises manage and run databases and applications, the tech giant is seeing firsthand how the emergence of AI is creating an ever-increasing demand for data center infrastructure. In fact, when MSFT reported Q4 results in late July, one key takeaway was that Azure's revenue growth of 30% likely would have been even stronger if not for capacity constraints.

The issue isn't that MSFT is being too conservative with its investments -- its capital expenditures were $19 bln in Q4 with nearly half of that tied to AI-related spending -- rather, the inability to build and scale data centers fast enough to keep pace with demand is the main challenge for MSFT and other hyperscalers.

https://www.briefing.com/story-stocks/archive/2024/9/18/microsofts-partnership-with-blackrock-to-expand-ai-infrastructure-looks-like-a-winwin-(msft)?utm_campaign=storystocks&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fb&utm_content=link

Story Stocks - Microsoft's partnership with BlackRock to expand AI infrastructure looks like a win-win (MSFT) Brief synopsis and analysis of news items that are affecting the equities market

(+0.9%) is trading modestly higher today after disclosing last night that a director bought 2,455 shares at $81.26 worth ~$199K. In fairness, this does follow some sales by its CEO in early September. However, while not a huge purchase, we see it as a sign that this person sees some value here because the stock has pulled back following its Q2 (Jul) report last month.

This warehouse club chain beat on EPS in Q2, its largest EPS upside in five quarters. Revenue rose 4.9% yr/yr to $5.21 bln, which also was better than expected. It also reaffirmed full-year EPS at $3.75-4.00. However, with its investments for the long term, BJ says this could possibly drive EPS toward the low end of that range.

https://www.briefing.com/story-stocks/archive/2024/9/18/bjs-wholesale-higher-on-insider-buy-co-is-betting-that-investing-in-new-stores-will-pay-off-(bj)?utm_campaign=storystocks&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fb&utm_content=link

Story Stocks - BJ's Wholesale higher on insider buy; co is betting that investing in new stores will pay off (BJ) Brief synopsis and analysis of news items that are affecting the equities market

' (+1.2%) slim earnings beat, in-line revenue, and flat volume growth in Q1 (Aug) come up stale, spurring a muted response today. The consumer packaged goods giant also reiterated its FY25 (May) financial targets. However, this was not surprising given that the company reiterated its guidance earlier this month before a consumer staples conference. With shares running hot lately, appreciating by roughly +20% since bottoming out following GIS's underwhelming Q4 (May) numbers in late June, investors were simply hungry for more buoyant headline results in Q1.

For the quarter, net sales and organic net sales edged 1% lower yr/yr to $4.85 bln.

https://www.briefing.com/story-stocks/archive/2024/9/18/general-mills-augq-performance-mostly-expected-ahead-of-time-spurring-a-muted-response-today-(gis)?utm_campaign=storystocks&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fb&utm_content=link

Story Stocks - General Mills' AugQ performance mostly expected ahead of time, spurring a muted response today (GIS) Brief synopsis and analysis of news items that are affecting the equities market

: Fortune has smiled on the stock market so far this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and equal-weighted S&P 500 have all set new record highs. They have done so against a backdrop of uncertainty involving the Fed's interest rate decision, only that uncertainty isn't about whether the Fed will cut rates. Rather, it is about how much and how fast the Fed will cut rates.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the fed funds futures market continues to place a relatively high 63% probability on the prospect of a 50-basis points rate cut today.

It is a peculiar expectation with the stock market sitting near record highs and an Atlanta Fed GDPNow model that estimates real GDP growth will be 3.0% in the third quarter, yet it captures concerns about the fed funds rate being overly restrictive now, thereby risking a hard landing driven by the lag effect if the Fed doesn't get going on more sizable rate cuts now.

https://www.briefing.com/page-one/archive/2024/9/18/tension-on-the-line-in-front-of-fomc-decision?utm_campaign=pageone&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fb&utm_content=link

Page One - Tension on the line in front of FOMC decision Daily, pre-market analysis and implications for individual stocks based on the news.

: There's a positive bias in early trading ahead of this afternoon's FOMC policy decision at 2:00 ET. The committee is expected to lower rates for the first time since March 2020. Pre-open gains in some mega-cap names have contributed to the upside action.

Treasury yields are higher in front of the September FOMC Statement. The 10-yr yield is three basis points higher at 3.67% and the 2-yr yield is three basis points higher at 3.62%.

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IT consulting giant (-4.8%) is encountering selling pressure today after Bloomberg reported that the company would delay staff promotions by six months due to an extended slump within the consultancy industry. The news is sending a shockwave across the consultancy landscape as several of ACN's peers tick lower in sympathy, including DAVA -5%, EPAM -2%, GLOB -2%, and IBM -1%.

Since reporting Q3 (May) results in late June, ACN has been mounting an impressive comeback, soaring by over +20%. Artificial intelligence kept shares of ACN afloat after delivering a rather underwhelming Q3 performance.

https://www.briefing.com/story-stocks/archive/2024/9/17/accenture-slides-following-reports-of-delayed-staff-promotions-amid-slump-in-it-consulting-(acn)?utm_campaign=storystocks&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fb&utm_content=link

Story Stocks - Accenture slides following reports of delayed staff promotions amid slump in IT consulting (ACN) Brief synopsis and analysis of news items that are affecting the equities market

(+2.4%) and its much-maligned Foundry business may not be out of the woods just yet, but for the first time in a long time, there is reason to feel hopeful that the company can succeed in its quest to become a leading manufacturer of chips in the U.S. After securing a new $3.0 bln award with the U.S. government to produce advanced chips for the Department of Defense (DoD), INTC announced even better news after the close yesterday, disclosing a major win with Amazon (AMZN) Web Services in a deal that has the two companies working together to develop a new AI chip using INTC's 18A process.

The "multi-year, multi-billion-dollar framework" of the deal, as described by CEO Pat Gelsinger, has the potential to move the needle and to inject some confidence into the struggling Foundry unit, but there's more to the story.

https://www.briefing.com/story-stocks/archive/2024/9/17/intel-turns-gloomanddoom-for-foundry-unit-into-some-hope-after-flurry-of-announcements-(intc)?utm_campaign=storystocks&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fb&utm_content=link

Story Stocks - Intel turns gloom-and-doom for Foundry unit into some hope after flurry of announcements (INTC) Brief synopsis and analysis of news items that are affecting the equities market

(STLD +2.8%) and Nucor (NUE -0.3%) tend to both provide EPS guidance around the middle of the last month each quarter. And that was the case again this quarter as the two steelmakers provided downside Q3 EPS guidance with Steel Dynamics guiding lower last night and Nucor guiding lower this morning.

Steel Dynamics expects Q3 EPS of just $1.94-1.98 whereas analysts had been expecting EPS to be north of $2.00 per share. Its largest segment is its steel operations and here STLD expects earnings to be meaningfully lower than Q2 results. The main culprit is lower average realized pricing within the flat rolled operations as generally 80% of this business is contractually based and tied to lagging pricing indices.

https://www.briefing.com/story-stocks/archive/2024/9/17/steel-dynamics-and-nucor-trade-higher-despite-downside-guidance-rate-cut-would-be-a-positive-(stld)?utm_campaign=storystocks&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fb&utm_content=link

Story Stocks - Steel Dynamics and Nucor trade higher despite downside guidance; rate cut would be a positive (STLD) Brief synopsis and analysis of news items that are affecting the equities market

Building product distributor (+2.5%), which supplies plumbing, HVAC, waterworks, lighting, etc., to the residential and non-residential North American construction, repair, and remodel market, is giving investors something to write home about following its mixed Q4 (Jul) report. FERG toppled Q4 earnings estimates but came up shy of analysts' revenue prediction. Meanwhile, FERG's initial FY25 revenue guidance was mild, projecting low single-digit growth yr/yr. Even though this is a decent reversal from the 0.3% drop posted in FY24, it was still modestly below consensus.

By operating in the residential and commercial housing market, there has been no shortage of obstacles in FERG's path over the past few years.

https://www.briefing.com/story-stocks/archive/2024/9/17/ferguson-plc-up-mildly-following-mixed-q4-results-investors-focus-on-easing-monetary-policy-(ferg)?utm_campaign=storystocks&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fb&utm_content=link

Story Stocks - Ferguson plc up mildly following mixed Q4 results; investors focus on easing monetary policy (FERG) Brief synopsis and analysis of news items that are affecting the equities market

: Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 25 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 130 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 135 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value.

Microsoft (MSFT) helped infuse this positive disposition with news of a 10% increase to its quarterly dividend and a share buyback authorization up to $60 billion. There was also a buzz surrounding Intel's (INTC) announcements of a major new collaboration with Amazon Web Services to produce a new AI chip and a plan to turn its foundry business into a subsidiary.

https://www.briefing.com/page-one/archive/2024/9/17/still-following-rebound-glide-path?utm_campaign=pageone&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fb&utm_content=link

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Page One - Still following rebound glide path Daily, pre-market analysis and implications for individual stocks based on the news.

: Early action features a positive bias. Ongoing momentum has contributed to the upside action, but the vibe could shift following this morning's economic releases. The Retail Sales report for August will be released at 8:30 ET and the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report for August will be released at 9:15 ET.

Treasury yields are little changed from yesterday in front of the data. The 10-yr yield is down one basis point to 3.61% and the 2-yr yield is unchanged at 3.56%.

There's also some hesitation in play ahead of the FOMC policy decision tomorrow.

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update/archive/2024/9/17/morning-summary-?utm_campaign=stockmarketupdate&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fb&utm_content=link

(-3%) is exhibiting weakness today after estimated preorders for the newest iPhone reflect softer-than-anticipated demand. Apple unveiled its latest iPhone models last week, including the iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max. As the market has expected from the tech giant, design changes were minimal. Apple also revealed its latest Apple Watch and AirPods, products housed in the company's Wearables segment.

Apple's annual events, including its Worldwide Developers Conference, tend to accompany a sell-the-news reaction. However, often, the stock picks right back up where it left off. For example, shares slipped in June after iOS 18 was unveiled, only for the AI features to ultimately ignite excitement and send the stock to all-time highs.

https://www.briefing.com/story-stocks/archive/2024/9/16/apple-slumps-as-estimated-iphone-preorders-come-up-lighter-than-expected-(aapl)?utm_campaign=storystocks&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fb&utm_content=link

Story Stocks - Apple slumps as estimated iPhone preorders come up lighter than expected (AAPL) Brief synopsis and analysis of news items that are affecting the equities market